Mel Payne
Analyst · Barrington Research
And 6.5% cost of capital. So I've been teaching the 47 people, now 50, we put more -- 3 more into the Good to Great II 5-year shareholder value incentive plan. I've been teaching them, as Ben has been doing, how to think about their jobs individually and in teams, as we execute our 3 core models: Standards Operating, 4E Leadership and Strategic Acquisition. And I've been teaching them how to calculate various price ranges of our shares based on performance metrics that, as we've explained, you should expect to trend up over time, notwithstanding the external environment. And if you look at the 2-year scenario, '19 actual, '20 actual, 12 months ending March 31, the 12 months going forward to March '22, all of '21, all of '22, it's not hard to see the transformation in these numbers. At the end of '21, I don't know what the COVID environment will be or not be. But at the beginning of '22, we will put out another scenario, even though we haven't finished the '22 year. It's been a total transformation. We will put out a 5-year scenario. In this scenario, we will now be allocating our capital in different ways to create more intrinsic value per share. We'll put several scenarios in there, more acquisitions, less acquisitions, buying in shares, more dividends, keeping our debt right there at 4, 4 or less. And we'll have the free cash flow to do it. And so the fun part of my job and Ben's job now is to just educate our own people. Now I've been in the process. Somebody out there in your world gets educated, too. That's great. But that's not my primary motive. My motive is to get our own people educated about how they create value. I figure somebody out there will figure it out sooner or later by reading the materials Ben pointed to, because it's real and it's only going to get better from here. But even if you just look right now at what Ben just said, we got $70 million in there for free cash flow after the refinancing, but I just heard him say $70 million to $75 million. Let's just take the midpoint, $72.5 million and divide it by 18.2 million shares. That's free cash flow per share of $4. One of the reasons I love this industry and started this company at 48 years old, I mean, this is what I know. I knew about all that stuff before I start at Carriage. $4 in free cash flow per share with a share price of $37, I mean I can do the math in my brain. That's the 10.8% free cash flow equity yield. Compare that to what we will have as a 6.5% cost of capital. Now in a normal valuation of free cash flow equity yield, you would divide the free cash flow per share by your cost of capital or somewhere close to it. That would get you at current price or maybe a price a year from now of about $60 or $61. If you put a 20x multiple on the EPS, you come up with $50. So somewhere between $50 and $60 is where I think we will get to. Now -- but this is what our -- this is what I'm teaching our own people. And why should I hold back by telling you the same? Because they all believe it. They all know we can execute it. And that's without even have done anything new with the capital we will have post refinancing. And we're going to do new things that will add even more value. So the team here -- and we've had very little input. I've had some on the Good to Great II 5-year shareholder value incentive plan. That's what everybody should be focused on. And you should be focused on why everybody here is excited about it. And as Ben said, read the material, get on the cover. Come to see us. Come to see us. You'll see our places. If you want to go find out, go see a place run by a Standards Council member. They're in on the plan. They're 1 of the 10 in the 50. You will learn so much about this company. We're an open book. There ain't nothing to hide because it's real, and it's only going to get better. And I'll end by telling you a funny story. I was almost late for this call. They were calling me, "Where are you? Where are you? Where are you?" Well, if you read the shareholder letter, you get to the end, and I acknowledge my wife for the first time. And I came to home for Easter. And our son's 35. Our daughter's 27. I'm an older dad. They keep me young, believe me. And my daughter read it first. And she got to the part about her mother, and she said, "Oh, dad, that's wonderful." And then she said something else. Said, "You know, dad, if I've been you back then -- and I spent 3 weeks in Paris restructuring a company's debt with a government French bank -- wow, I would have flown home on Saturday, got dressed and gone to that same club and just sat there all night myself. That's what I would have done." And you know what? I know she's right. She's really bright. All right. So as is my son. He called me this morning, "Dad, are you ready for the call? Are you ready for the call?" I'm all, "Oh, I'm more than ready." Because when you got a company like this, you don't have to prepare a whole lot. And so my daughter texted me. I was not even in the shower yet. "Oh yes, dad. I read the release. It is so powerful. It is unbelievable. I don't know why anyone wouldn't want to own this whole company or at least a lot of shares. And that's why I'm not selling any of my 127,000.6 shares. You told me not to. I get it. I'm never selling. In fact, I might buy some more." Now that's my kids. I don't think they're biased. I think they're just getting savvy about what is a good investment. And with that, I'll open it up for questions.