Ben Brink
Analyst · Barrington Research. Your line is now open
And now for some more color on our current operating trends and where we are as we move forward. Once we review the results through August, it became apparent that operating trends were not improving at the rate we anticipated coming out of the second quarter. The operating team, with Mel's leadership, conducted an extensive review of our entire Funeral and Cemetery portfolio in order to identify the causes of our underperformance and began to formulate a plan to improve our performance quickly. This review included a deep analysis of long-term historical operating and financial data for each business along with the corresponding historical standards achievement, which revealed the following: top-performing businesses in our company, of which there are many, were subsidizing underperformance in segments of our portfolio. In some cases, we have experience a breakdown in the correlation between revenue growth and standards achievement. Our standards operating model has not evolved enough over the past seven years to properly align standards to changes in consumer preferences, particularly around cremation. Consequently, standards achievement across our entire portfolio is lower than our high-performance expectations, and we have a small group of businesses that as our standards are currently constructed, we'll continue to struggle to consistently achieve a minimum of 50% of standards. And finally, we identified the need to update our Cemetery standards to better align with our current performance, particularly in light of the number of new Cemetery sales managers we put in place across our larger cemeteries in the past 12 months and the progress our Cemetery portfolio has made so far this year. With this data and analysis in hand, our operating teams, along with our local management partners, quickly established business-specific performance improvement plans that are currently being executed throughout the company. These plans include: Improved expense control, updated local pricing strategies and changes to staffing levels at certain locations. The goal of these plans are to improve companywise standards achievement to 50% or above by the end of this year and set up each business for higher standards achievement and improve financial performance in 2019 and beyond. And while it is too soon to comment on the results of these actions, we have been pleased with the sense of urgency with which these plans are being implemented and from the buying that we have witnessed across the entire company. As part of the extensive review of all aspects of Carriage, we have additionally identified $5 million to $6 million of overhead and stock-based compensation expenses that will be lower in 2019 versus the prior 12 months. In the fourth quarter, we expect to book between $1 million and $1.5 million of severance expense along with the still-to-be-determined charge related to the cancellation of previously granted performance awards. We also plan to take charges in the fourth quarter related to businesses that have suffered long-term declines in market share and competitive standing and no longer contribute meaningfully to our portfolio. We've also begun the process to update our funeral and cemetery standards along with our short-term Being the Best and long-term Good to Great Field incentive programs. We are early in this process, but our current thinking is that our funeral standards will be updated to prioritize total revenue growth over growth in average revenue per contract, provide greater differentiation regarding margin ranges amongst business based on client family revenue profiles and improvement in how we apply and evaluate our two qualitative people standards. The feedback from our Standards Council members and other managing partners over these past weeks has been invaluable in our initial thinking regarding an updated standards and has only reinforced our belief that the best ideas in carriage come from our operators in the field. We will complete the standards update at the end of the month when all of our operating leadership and Standards Council members will meet, and we will be prepared to roll them out as of January 1. The goal of standards refresh is to quickly restore credibility to the standards operating model through performance, to ensure a better chance of more success for all of our managing partners and their teams and to position Carriage for sustained operational financial performance well into the future. Our pro forma net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio was 4.6 times at the end of the third quarter. We will remain flexible in our capital allocation decision-making in the near term as we execute our performance improvement plans. This will also mean that we will deemphasize acquisition activity in the near term as we focus on improving operating trends. Given our strong and stable free cash flow generation, we expect to fund all our value creation capital allocation through internally generated free cash flow for the time being. As we stated in the press release, we currently believe it is too early this process to publish an updated Rolling Four Quarter outlook. We recognize that we've lost credibility with investors, based on our underperformance versus previously released roughly right outlooks, announced letter of intent on acquisitions that didn't close and changes to earnings per share expectations based on our recent balance sheet recapitalization. Yet, taken together, we believe that detailed action plans for each business that are being executed currently, the identified reduction in overhead and stock-based competition expenses and the next evolution of our innovative standards operating model will lead to improve operating financial performance in 2019 versus the last 12 months. Our intention is to provide an updated Rolling Four Quarter outlook along with a preliminary release of our fourth quarter and 2018 results in mid-January. This will provide us the necessary time to see the early results of our plans and allow us to publish our roughly right outlook that we will achieve. And with that, I'd like to open the call up for questions.