Mel Payne
Analyst · Mendel Money Management. Your line is now open.
That’s a good question. I thought that would get people’s attention. When I co-founded the company in 1991, I think we were around 20%, 25%, so maybe a little less 20% to 25%. So it’s gone up 400-or-so a year. That was actually the prediction at the time, but the other prediction at the time is that the number of deaths would go up to offset it. That hasn’t happened. People are living longer, medicine, blah, blah, blah, fitness, whatever. They are living longer. So we have had to - it’s an interesting point. And the way I look at it, it might be different than you look at it or other people it’s already at 50.3%. It’s sort of like when our stock went from $29.25 in January 1999 to $1 in December 2000, people said, oh, my god, Mel, you must be depressed. And I’m going, no, actually I’m pretty excited, it can only fall on over $1. Well, the cremation rate is already up to 50.3%, and it’s not going to go to 100%. But it hasn’t really hurt our ability to improve earnings over time, because we’re getting better at dealing with cremation families. And the average revenue per cremation is going up at a much higher rate than the burial average; five points or so? Six points higher growth rate in the average revenue per cremation. We were focused on it through better people, not the centralized ideas, pushed down from above that people don’t buy into. And we’re getting better and better at it. But I can tell you we’re really focused on that as a glass half-full. That is a huge earning opportunity for our company over the next five years. I just got back from Japan. I mean, their cremations over there average $20,000. I’m talking about sending some of our people over to Japan to do a little study over there. I mean, they know how to do cremations.