Jean-Marc Germain
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question
Thank you, Peter. Before opening for questions, I would like to share a few end market updates. And starting with automotive market, which, as you all know, is a very important growth market for Constellium, we maintained our positive outlook for this market. As we noted at our Analyst Day last month, over the period 2016 to 2021, the growth rate of aluminum rolled products for automotive applications is forecasted to be 19% earlier in the U.S. and 12% per year Europe, where the market is more mature. We see low risk to these forecasts in the short term as automakers have already locked in designs and materials. In addition, we believe that our mix makes us less vulnerable to an industry downturn given the platforms of vehicles we supply. And for instance, while the U.S. SAR was softer in the first quarter of 2017, the U.S. production of automotive programs was up year over year. We believe this can attributed to our greater exposure to light trucks, SUVs and luxury cars which have a greater need for light weighting and have been in higher demand. Over the longer term, we remain confident that increased aluminum usage is a secular trend for the automotive market, driven not only by light weighting enablers -- like fuel efficiency, safety, battery technology, but also by customer preference and driving enjoyment. We will continue to closely monitor this market and we will remain prudent with our investments. As I have said many times, we will not make incremental investments without firm personal commitments. Just turning to packaging for a moment. Packaging is a stable market and provides a good base load capacity for our plants. We also like packaging's with session resistant qualities. In the United States, we expect the continued progression of auto body sheet demand as well as craft bear increasingly moving to cans to help further tighten the market. In Europe, demand continues to grow based on substitution of aluminum for steel as well. Turning to Aerospace, we remain positive in this market. And as the aerospace market grows from the first quarter of this year, we expect to grow in line with the market. In the near term, we continue to see excess inventory in the supply chain which will continue to affect shipments for a while. However, I will note that our aerospace demand was better than we expected for the past quarter. Finally, we see steady demand in our Transportation, Industry and Defense markets, where we are executing on our strategy of expanding into niche products and markets. While we see strength in many of the TID markets that we serve, weakness persists in the North American transport market. We continue to expect higher overall transportation, industry and other rolled product shipments to offset lower aerospace shipments in 2017. Turning now to Slide 15, I would like to reiterate our financial guidance and give you a little additional color on the second quarter. We continue to expect high single-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA annually this year and over the next three years, leading to over 500 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2020. And looking at each of our different business units, we're expecting every business unit to be up year-over-year. In the second quarter, more particularly, our packaging business will benefit from the usual seasonality as we enter the peak summer season, but we'll continue to be affected by planned outages for our automotive readiness program. As we noted at our Analyst Day, based on our order book, we expect a strong second quarter in Aerospace, and AS&I is expected to continue the strong momentum in the second quarter. We maintain our guidance of capital spending of 275 million in 2017, I'll remind everybody it's an 80 million reduction compared to last year. It goes without saying, but I'll say it again, we continue to target positive cash flow in 2019. The of Project 2019 is an important steps towards achieving this and makes me more comfortable in our ability to achieve this objective. And I have say, I am pleased with our performance on free cash flow in the first quarter of the year. Lastly we are targeting a leverage ratio of between four and 4.5 times. So overall, I'm pleased with Constellium's performance in the first quarter of 2017. We made solid results on the quarter with adjusted EBITDA of €93 million, with another record performance in our AS&I segment and a 20% increase in automotive shipments. We remain focused on operational execution and disciplined capital deployment, and on harvesting the benefits of our investments. With that, operator, we will now open the Q&A session, please.