Mehul Patel
Management
Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Carlisle's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. I'm Mehul Patel, vice president of investor relations for Carlisle. We released our first quarter financial results today and you can find both our press release and the presentation for today's call in the Investor Relations section of our website. On the call with me today are Chris Koch, our board chair, president, and CEO along with Kevin Zdimal, our CFO. Today's call will begin with Chris providing key highlights of our first quarter, Kevin will follow Chris with an overview of our Q1 financial performance, and a reaffirmed outlook for 2025. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the line for questions. Before we begin, please refer to Slide two of our presentation where we note that comments today will include forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Actual results could differ materially from these statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties which are discussed in our press release and SEC filings. As Carlisle provides non-GAAP financial information, we provided reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release, and in the appendix of our presentation materials which are available on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Chris. Thank you, Mehul. Good afternoon. Everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Starting with slide three of the presentation where we highlight our first quarter performance in progress, I'm pleased to report that the Carlisle team showed superb perseverance in driving our key initiatives in the first quarter of 2025 overcoming significant challenges, and post-election turmoil to deliver solid results. The first quarter challenges included the continued weakness in the residential construction markets, the negative impact of this winter's weather, especially in January and February, and the significant economic uncertainty and instability created by the ongoing US tariff actions. With tough year-over-year comparisons and with an ever increasingly complex macroeconomic backdrop, revenue of $1.1 billion was essentially flat year-over-year. Diluted EPS for Q1 was $3.13, and adjusted EPS was $3.61. As anticipated, and consistent with the trends we experienced as we exited 2024, the first quarter began with a slower start primarily due to unfavorable weather conditions in January and February across many of our key markets. Fortunately, improved weather conditions in March, and healthy reroofing activity helped to offset much of the unfavorable impact experienced in those first two months. In our CCM segment, in addition to the strong reroofing activity, Carlisle also benefited from our 2024 MTL acquisition. Both of these factors help offset softer conditions in the new commercial activity challenging prior year weather comps, and as anticipated, low single-digit price declines in CCM. The ongoing strength in reroofing demand, which represents 70% of CCM's commercial business, continues to be a key driver of our resilient performance helping to offset the more negative macro environment. For CWT, we continue to face headwinds in residential end markets due to buyer uncertainty, affordability challenges, higher interest rates, and lower housing turnover. As we've discussed previously, these residential market challenges were largely anticipated impacted most market participants, and are well understood. While we are optimistic that the underlying drivers of the residential end markets will ultimately bring significant growth and margin expansion in our CWT business, for now, we will continue to focus on areas in our control. We are making progress on many of our key investments and seeing gains in areas such as new product introductions, and factory automation within CWT. These efforts are expected to provide $3 million to $4 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA per quarter starting this quarter along with share gain initiatives. When we look at pricing across both CCM and CWT, we experienced modest declines as expected during the quarter with low single-digit price declines in both CCM and CWT. Based on the announced price increases and the start of the summer season, contractor expectations are that price increases will gain traction in the second quarter and we expect year-over-year pricing to be neutral for both CCM and CWT in the second quarter. Turning to the much-discussed subject of tariffs. As we alluded to in the Q4 2024 earnings call, over 90% of our raw materials are sourced within North America. Additionally, many of our materials that are sourced from Mexico and Canada are covered by USMCA, and are not subject to tariffs. Additionally, we import very little directly from China, approximately 5% of purchases. Because of Carlisle's predominantly North American sourcing position, we currently expect a negligible direct impact from tariffs in 2025. Turning to the indirect impact of tariffs. The indirect impact is much more difficult to quantify and forecast due to the complexity and many moving parts involved. Nonetheless, the current indirect impact of tariffs is minor for Carlisle overall and should remain so for the rest of 2025. While the impact from tariffs both direct and indirect may be limited, we do remain concerned that there may be unforeseen indirect consequences of the tariffs for our contractors, distributors, and suppliers. Along with the increased potential for a US recession the longer these conditions remain unresolved and businesses remain uncertain about the future. Nonetheless, we have increased conviction in our well-understood drivers to our businesses and our market intelligence. And we remain committed to our 2025 outlook. Our 2025 outlook is reinforced by the data from our latest Carlisle market survey conducted in early April. Feedback from those surveyed reinforces our positive outlook on the 2025 roofing season and our belief that commercial roofing volumes will be up low single digits. This low single-digit increase will be more heavily weighted to reroofing new construction demand, which we believe will be essentially flat for the full year. Additionally, pricing in our non-resi markets is showing signs of traction and our survey participants expect pricing to improve as the year progresses. Consistent with what we experienced starting in the second quarter 2024, 2025 full-year residential volumes are expected to be down low single digits and due to the continued negative impact of buyer uncertainty affordability challenges, higher interest rates, and lower housing turnover. Comments also suggest that inventory in the channel remains low by historical comparisons due to higher carrying costs, and economic uncertainty. During the quarter, we maintained our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders, repurchasing 1.2 million shares for $400 million bringing the total share repurchases since 2017 to $5 billion. Additionally, following the $1.6 billion in share repurchases in 2024, we now expect to deploy approximately $1 billion into share repurchases 2025. An increase over our original projected share repurchases of $800 million. As a reminder, we also increased our dividend by 17.6% last August our 48th consecutive year of increasing our dividends to our shareholders. These actions underscore our confidence in Carlisle's future growth prospects and our ability to generate significant free cash flow. We believe our approach to capital allocation continues to be a source of competitive advantage. We are disciplined, have always been disciplined, and will remain disciplined with an aim to keep our ROIC above 25%. Additionally, we will continue to allocate capital towards strategic M&A to enhance our leadership position within the building envelope. Invest in our key strategic initiatives and invest in significant capital expenditures to support growth innovation, and further operating efficiencies. Touching on M&A for a moment, our acquisition of MTL continues to exceed our expectations. We are on track to exceed $20 million of synergies well above our originally announced $13 million of synergies as the Carlisle integration playbook delivers substantial value through a disciplined approach. Similarly, we are utilizing the same playbook on our integrations of both Plastifab and ThermoFoam. ThermoFoam, as a reminder, continues to build our vertically integrated expanded polystyrene capabilities and adds geographic coverage in Texas, and the South Central United States. Please turn to slide four as I discuss the strong structural trends that continue to support our businesses. Approximately 5.9 million buildings exist in the United States according to the 2018 Commercial Buildings energy consumption survey. Of those, roughly 70% of US nonresidential buildings are now over 25 years old and represent a significant pool of potential buildings requiring reroofing activity. Based on our internal data, more than 80% of reroofing permits come from buildings over 25 years old. This pool of potential reroofing demand creates a consistent and somewhat predictable demand pattern. That demand pattern is demonstrated in CCM sales data from 2008 to 2025. It is extremely important to remember, and I want to emphasize, that Carlisle is an imperative business with a leading market share position in North America and what we believe is the world's best market for building products. By using the words imperative business, what we mean is that Carlisle provides key products and solutions to address a basic need of society. The need for buildings that protect and house us and are essential to our daily lives. Roofing, insulation, and weatherproofing are largely nondiscretionary and necessary components of the built environment. The fundamental need for our products and solutions combined with our market-leading position provides resilience for Carlisle even during periods of economic uncertainty. It's also important to recognize that many of these older buildings undergo multiple reroofing cycles during their lifetime. Buildings over 35 years old are 55% of the building footprint in the US and require their second or often third roof replacement. And as the 30% of buildings under 25 years old steadily roll into our addressable reroofing market, they reinforce the expanding pipeline of recurring revenue for decades to come. Turning to slide five, Beyond the dependable base of recurring reroofing projects, Carlisle is also benefiting from increasing revenue and profitability per square foot. This increased content is driven by several factors. Stricter building codes, increasing energy efficiency regulations, more severe weather events, leading to higher specification roofs, and the growing adoption of 20-year warranties which require more comprehensive systems and materials. This trend of increasing content per square foot is not new to Carlisle. In fact, it is directly aligned with one of our key pillars of our vision 2030 strategy. Innovation. Innovation drives differentiated products by first understanding the job to be done, and how we can provide a better solution based on strong, voice of the customer content. These products are then designed to create value for our customers. This results in creating a preference for Carlisle's products and solutions, and allows us to price to that value and when compared to existing products. The ability to better address customer needs and wants, in turn enables Carlisle to capture a greater share of wallet and deliver superior margins. Our comprehensive warranties further enhance our ability to drive content growth. Carlisle warranties are a highly valued benefit desired by building owners who prefer complete system solutions rather than individual components. Over 80% of our warranties sold now have 20-year terms up significantly from previous years. These market dynamics present tremendous opportunities for Carlisle. And we're strategically positioning our innovation capabilities and initiatives to capitalize on them. By developing products that deliver superior energy efficiency, require less labor to install, and enable us to sell more value-added solutions per square foot. We're directly addressing the key needs of building owners and contractors. While driving our own growth and profitability. Turning to slide six, we remain committed to accelerating our innovation efforts to deliver margin enhancing, energy-efficient, and labor-saving solutions for our customers. As outlined in our vision 2030 strategy, we're investing significantly in R&D. With our new state-of-the-art research and innovation center in Carlisle, PA representing a critical part of this commitment. We continue to focus our innovation pipeline on three key areas. Evolutionary improvements to existing products, transformational new solutions, and business life cycle innovations that enhance efficiency, and reduce costs. Our product development efforts are yielding positive results across both CCM and CWT segments, with new products gaining traction in the market. In prior calls, we've highlighted several recent product introductions including SeamShield, Blue Skin VP Tech, and Ultra Touch. All three rollouts are resonating with customers responding to their VOC stated needs, meeting our price to value objectives, and our margin accretive to our portfolio. As we continue to work with customers to grow our pipeline of innovation opportunities, we remain disciplined in our approach. Our rigorous underwriting process ensures that every R&D investment is aligned with our financial and strategic objectives to drive profitable growth and maximize returns. Simply put, we built the right infrastructure to consistently bring margin enhancing energy-efficient, and labor-saving solutions for our customers. Our innovation investments are a critical component of our vision 2030 strategy and we expect our efforts to contribute meaningfully to our goal of generating 25% of revenues from new products by 2030. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kevin to provide additional financial details and color on our outlook for 2025. Kevin? Thank you, Chris. Starting with slide seven, I'll review our first quarter 2025 financial results. In the first quarter, we delivered revenue of $1.1 billion essentially flat compared to the first quarter of 2024. The acquisitions of MTL, Plastafab, and ThermoFoam contributed $50 million in the first quarter. However, were offset by a soft residential end market unfavorable weather in 2025 compared to favorable weather in 2024, as well as lower pricing in the first quarter from carryover pricing from 2024. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 21.8%. Down 240 basis points from the first quarter of 2024. Adjusted EPS was $3.61 a 3% decrease from the prior year. The margin and EPS decline was due to a combination of lower volume in the quarter negative price cost, and investments in the business. Turning to our segment performance, starting with CCM on slide eight. First quarter revenues were $799 million up 2% year over year. The contribution from MTL was partially offset by a 1% decline in organic revenue. Revenue in the quarter was supported by recurring reroofing activity and customers accelerating approximately $15 million of orders to get ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases. However, these increases were not enough to offset softer new commercial construction prior year weather comps, and lower carryover pricing from 2024. CCM's adjusted EBITDA was $217 million down 5% compared to the first quarter of 2024 with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.1%. A decrease of 180 basis points year over year. This margin compression was primarily due to lower carryover pricing and targeted investments in innovation and enhancement to the Carlisle experience. However, we continue to realize synergies from the MPL acquisition, which partially offset these headwinds. Moving to slide nine in our CWT segment. First quarter revenues were $297 million down 5% compared to the prior year. With organic revenue declining by 12%. This decrease was primarily due to softer residential end markets and impacted by affordability challenges, higher interest rates, and lower housing turnover. Along with lower demand for roof coatings impacted by fewer rain events. CWT's adjusted EBITDA was $46 million down 28% year over year with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.6%, a decrease of 510 basis points. This decline was a result of deleverage and lower revenue and negative price costs in the quarter. We remain confident in the investments we made including our automation projects and share gain initiatives. Our automation and factories cross-selling initiatives in the retail chains M&A synergies, and new product introductions are all progressing well. They should deliver benefits starting in the second quarter and accelerate into the second half of 2025 positioning CWT for improved performance going forward. Slide ten provides our first quarter 2025 adjusted EPS bridge for your reference. Moving to slide eleven, our balance sheet remains strong with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.2 times, within our target range of 1 to 2 times. We ended the quarter with $220 million in cash and $1 billion available under our revolving credit facility. The strong liquidity position provides us with ample flexibility to continue investing in our businesses while also returning capital to shareholders. We maintain a balanced debt maturity schedule with a weighted average interest rate of 2.9% and a weighted average maturity of 4.8 years. Our EBITDA to interest ratio stands at 19.5 times reflecting our strong cash flow generation and modest debt levels. Turning to slide twelve and our cash flow performance. The first quarter is typically our lightest cash generating quarter as we pay down liabilities that grow throughout the year like accrued customer rebates and employee incentive compensation and we temporarily deploy more cash into working capital to prepare for the construction season. Cash generation this year was lighter than usual due to first quarter payments for higher year-end liabilities as well as the dynamics of the first quarter shipping pattern. January and February shipments were negatively impacted by weather and were followed by a very strong March, which shifted the time that cash provided by normal operating activities compared to the prior year. This will correct itself in the second quarter. We expect to generate full-year free cash flow of approximately $1 billion for 2025. Providing us with the financial flexibility to pursue our balanced capital deployment strategy. Looking ahead to our 2024 outlook on slide thirteen, we are reaffirming our expectations for mid-single-digit revenue growth for the full year with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion approximately 50 basis points. While we continue to monitor the potential impacts of tariffs, interest rate movements, and consumer behavior, we remain focused on executing vision 2030 and delivering on our full-year guidance. For CCM, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth driven by continued strength in reroofing activity and the full-year benefit from the MTL acquisition. We anticipate expanding margins through price increases, volume leverage, and operational efficiencies through the Carlisle operating system. The second quarter for CCM will reflect a negative impact of the estimated that positively impacted the first quarter from accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases. For CWT, we expect high single-digit revenue growth primarily driven by share gains and a full-year impact of the Plasifab and ThermoFoam acquisitions. We anticipate margin improvements from acquisition synergies and the continued focus on the Carlisle operating system. Including the automation initiatives that we mentioned earlier. We expect total corporate and unallocated expenses of approximately $110 million for the full year. Capital expenditures are projected to be $150 million with depreciation and amortization of around $200 million and net interest expense of approximately $50 million. We anticipate our base tax rate to be between 23 and 24%. Overall, we remain on track to deliver record adjusted EPS for the full year 2025 with growth expected to exceed 10% year over year. We also expect to maintain our ROIC above 25% and free cash flow margin above 15%. Moving to slide fourteen, I want to emphasize that our Vision 2030 adjusted EPS target of $40 plus remains firmly on track. We have multiple paths to achieve an adjusted EPS growth rate in the mid-teens through 2030. Backed by our target organic revenue k year of over 5% consistent free cash flow margin above 15%, and disciplined capital deployment. Based on our Vision 2030 financial targets introduced in late 2023, we expect to generate cumulative free cash flow of more than $6 billion through 2030. This provides significant flexibility for share repurchases representing a combination of organic and inorganic path to achieve our EPS target. We have a proven track record of effectively deploying capital to drive shareholder value. As evidenced by our robust share repurchase program and successful M&A playbook. In summary, while the first quarter presented some weather and market-related challenges, our underlying business fundamentals remained strong. We're confident in our ability to navigate the current market environment and continue delivering solid results for our shareholders in 2025 and beyond. With that, I'll turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks. Thank you, Kevin. In conclusion, we remain confident in our full-year outlook and our progress towards our vision 2030 goal of $40 of EPS and exceeding 25% ROIC. I would once again like to take this opportunity to thank all of our Carlisle employees for their exceptional efforts and perseverance throughout this complex quarter. Your dedication has been instrumental in delivering resilient results. And thank you to all of you who are listening as well for your continued support and interest in Carlisle. That concludes our formal comments. Operator, are now ready for questions. Thank you. Tone phone. You will hear a prompt if your hand has been raised.