Earnings Labs

Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 5, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Carlisle Companies Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the conference over to David Roberts. Please go ahead.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Thank you, Kathy. Good morning, and welcome to Carlisle's Year-end 2014 Conference Call. On the phone with me is our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Koch; our Chief Financial Officer, Steven Ford; our Chief Accounting Officer, Kevin Zdimal; and our Treasurer, Julia Chandler. 2014 was another record year for Carlisle as we generated full year record sales, record EBIT and record net earnings. As we ended the year, fourth quarter sales were a record but earnings were below our expectations. For those of you who listened to our January 20, 2014, prerelease call, you heard me explain the onetime charges that negatively impacted the fourth quarter. I will review those charges again as we go through this presentation to remind you of the nature of those expenses. Before I get to the details of the fourth quarter, I ask that you turn to Slide 2, entitled Forward-Looking Statements and the Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures. I strongly encourage everyone considering an investment in Carlisle to read these statements in detail, along with reviewing the financial reports we filed with the SEC before making any investment decision. These items explain the risks associated with investing in our stock, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol of CSL. As we start our review, please return to page 3. As we review Slide 3, you'll see that our sales in the fourth quarter were up 9%. 6% of the growth was organic, while the additional 3% was the result of the LHi acquisition that we completed early in the fourth quarter. By business segment, CIT grew 16% organically, driven by very strong aerospace sales; and Construction Materials grew 5%, driven by a healthy nonresidential construction market. LHi, which we added on October 1, 2014, provided $26 million of CIT…

Steven J. Ford

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Thanks, Dave. Good morning. Please turn to Slide 14 of the presentation. We ended the year with $731 million of cash on hand. On October 1, we acquired LHi for $195 million using our cash on hand. We also planned to fund acquisition of Fluid Technologies with our available cash. Following the Fluid Technologies acquisition, we expect to continue to have all $600 million of availability under our credit facility, leaving us ample liquidity to further pursue our long-term growth objectives and return capital to our shareholders. Our balance sheet remains strong. We had net debt of less than $20 million at year end. Following the Liquid Technology acquisition, we expect our net debt to capital to be less than 25%. Turning to Slide 15. Our free cash flow from operations for the 3 months ended December 31 was $105.5 million, $39.4 million higher than the prior year. For the full year, we generated $171.1 million of free cash flow from operations, a decline of $126.8 million compared to the prior year, primarily reflecting the disposition of transportation products, increased cash for working capital attributable to higher sales and increased capital expenditures. Turning to Slide 16. As Dave noted, our average working capital as a percentage of sales for the fourth quarter was 17.8%, a 90-basis-point improvement from the prior year. We further improved inventory turns, 7.3 turns compared to 6.9 turns, and continued to make progress toward achieving our long-term goal of 15% of sales. And with those remarks, I'll turn the call back over to Dave.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Thanks, Steve. Kathy, let's go ahead and open the floor for questions, please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ivan Marcuse.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

The first one is your sales growth outlook, mid to high single digits. Does that includes Liquid Finishing being closed at the end of March? Or does not include it?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Not included, Ivan. That's not in there. And then any gains we get at LHi are also not included in there. We think LHi will grow a little faster than what we had.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Got you. And then if you look at your -- at the Construction, how much was replacement up in 2014 or -- yes, how much was replacement up?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Wait. I don't have that number in front of me, but I think it was very high single digit, if I recall. You're talking about the reroofing market, right?

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Yes.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Yes, it was up high single digits. The thing that we're starting to see is the mix again is headed back toward where it was in 2007. We're seeing a higher mix of new construction along with reroofing. I think the last I saw, it was almost 40% new, 60% reroofing with both markets very strong.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Got you. With that high of a comp, would you expect the reroofing market to continue to grow?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Yes, we...

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Or is that pretty tough for 2015?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

No. We think that reroofing will continue to grow as we go.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And then, is there -- last question, if you look at your working capital and looking at oil coming down, how does it -- how it's going to attack a variety of your raw -- the raw materials that you used, do you expect -- could working capital be a source of cash this year? Or do you have any sensitivity or thoughts around that?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Well, yes. We're at 17.8%. I mean, we're getting close to that -- closer to the 15%. I think what we might end up seeing this year is, with the inclusion of LHi and the inclusion of Fluid Technologies, we might see a bit of an increase in working capital. I really don't -- haven't seen the numbers forecasted with those 2 in, but we'll -- we would expect to continue to make improvement. But the question now is, what hard work has to be done to get us to 15%? We've made tremendous improvement over the last 5 or 6 years. Now the really hard work begins to get us down to 15%.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Did -- do you expect to see the lower cost show up in your P&L in the first quarter? Or would that be more of a second quarter event?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

I'm sorry. What was that? The lower...

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Lower cost from raw materials, is that -- do you expect...

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Yes. It's a second quarter event. What we end up doing in the first quarter, we'll build inventory as we always do. It goes into inventory and any gain that we get goes into inventory. And then as we sell in the second and third quarter, we'll see that come up.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew McConnell.

Deane M. Dray - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Actually, it's Deane Dray filling in for Matt McConnell. I was hoping, Dave, you'd give us some color on -- and a calibration on how weather actually ended up impacting the fourth quarter and maybe some insight into January. And I don't think the Northeast weather is helping you very much here so far in the quarter.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Yes. It -- as we got into the fourth quarter last year, October was up just about equal to what the third quarter ended at, so 16%, 17%. We got into November, we actually were negative in November, and I think it was 5% or 6%. And then we got into December, we had some growth in December, but it was all because of the weather that we had. December -- or January, without giving you a lot of guidance, January started out fine. As you say, at the end of the month, we had some weather issues in -- primarily the Northeast. And then last weekend, we had the Midwest and the Northeast that got hit. It hit pretty hard. So I don't know how -- we haven't seen the final numbers yet from January, but I would expect some impact. But I think we had enough weeks during January that we had good growth. It's just a question of how much it'll impact us at the end of the month and then into the start of February. Again, any weather impact we have is generally a short-term negative impact because we get that all back. If you look at last year, the first quarter last year was a tough quarter for us because of weather. And then we just had boomer second and third quarters. So we would expect to be able to recover whatever we lose in 1 quarter in the following quarters.

Deane M. Dray - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Yes. We've been through this -- the weather bridge between fourth quarter and into first quarter multiple times and just -- it's a question of timing. Never those -- that business doesn't go away. Dave, maybe expand on your comments about nonres. You sound a bit more optimistic and maybe just based on the indicators you're looking at internally within Carlisle, maybe some comments about which verticals you're beginning to see that strength.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Yes. We have seen -- obviously large flat roof buildings. So anything related to retail, warehouse, factory has been strong. We're starting to see municipality pick up. So we're starting to see activity in schools, other government buildings, which frankly, we haven't seen in almost a decade, primarily because they had no money. But we're starting to see schools being built. They were always reroofing them but they weren't building new, and we're starting to see new schools being built, some health care facilities being built that will drive new construction -- roofing on new construction.

Deane M. Dray - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

And that's consistent with what we've heard from folks like Ingersoll Rand. They called out specifically schools and health care from their HVAC business. So it looks like that's beginning to develop nicely. Just going back on the questions on energy savings and the benefit and how it flows through. Would -- just give us your sense about the competitive dynamic. Well, is there a chance some of your competitors in roofing might use that energy savings to cut cost or cut pricing? And how much of that do you think you actually save versus have to give up?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Well, I only went to Indiana so I'm not the brightest guy when it comes economics. But when you think about it, you’re in an environment where the market is growing, there is some new demand -- or capacity has been added but the capacities getting filled, you would think that in that environment that people would hold onto price. And we're really, what we'd end up doing is holding out price we should have gotten last year as raw materials were going up. So we would expect that, certainly, in the first quarter, second quarter, we may be able to hold on to this price until some guy gets a little anxious out there for whatever reason I don't understand and they end up beginning to compete on price. But the environment suggests that you should be able to hold on price and an increasing volume where we're ending up working our factories 5, 6, 7 days a week trying to meet the demand.

Deane M. Dray - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Absolutely. I just like seeing you guys having the lowest foreign exchange headwind of the companies that we follow. You guys really do stand out and get the benefit of having that U.S.-centric business. So that's it. That's it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ajay Kejriwal. Ajay Kejriwal - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division: So maybe on CIT. It's good to see the solid volume, up 17%. Aerospace, looks like you had a nice quarter. So just talk about that a little bit. How much of that's Boeing versus any orders that you might have had that you're executing now with Airbus?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Ajay Kejriwal

Yes. Most of that is Boeing. They continue to ramp up their production. Airbus really won't come on until probably a little later this year, Ajay, is when we'll start to see the impact of Airbus going to Nogales. We're getting ready. In fact, we're very close to opening the plant or at full production in the plant that we built on Nogales, and that will drive some of that volume that we get at Airbus. But the vast majority of the volume you're seeing is Boeing. Ajay Kejriwal - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division: Good. So as we think about '15, Boeing, I guess, is still predicting a little bit of growth. I mean, talk to us about overall segment-level growth rates. How should we be thinking about overall segments? Sounds like you're doing well in Industrial and other parts of the business as well. But at the segment level, is this a mid- to high single-digit grower in '15?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Ajay Kejriwal

Do you mean CIT in particular? Ajay Kejriwal - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division: Correct.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Ajay Kejriwal

Yes. Well, I think that CIT, we got the effect of AOC that will hit us this year. We've got the addition of LHi. I think that what you'll end up seeing is that probably overall, we'll grow organically, maybe mid-single digits, again, the effect of AOC. And then as you add in LHi, you're going to be ramping up another $125 million worth of revenue in there because of the acquisition. Ajay Kejriwal - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division: Good. And then maybe switching gears on CapEx. You're forecasting $100 million, a little bit less than '14. So how much of that's still growth related? I mean, are you going to be spending on newer factories versus how much of that's maintenance spending?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Ajay Kejriwal

Yes. Most of that is maintenance. We've got some new equipment that we're putting into the Construction Material plants, and also, some new equipment going into CIT. So the vast majority goes into both of those businesses and it's primarily maintenance. I think it's going to be high maintenance spending this year. I think you'll see perhaps another reduction next year, if we don't need investments into Fluid Technologies. So I think the vast majority of maintenance spending will take place this year as compared to next.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss.

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Just a couple of things here. Steve, can you give us the free cash flow estimate for 2015?

Steven J. Ford

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Yes, for 2015, we're forecasting that we're going to convert at about 100%. We've got some nice tailwinds coming in relative to where D&A and CapEx are going to be. That should be about a $25 million tailwind for us. And I think we won't have the same negative impact that we had this year with respect to our noncash equity compensation. So I think, we're forecasting 100% conversion for next year.

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Is that included in your 25% net debt to cap? Or is that -- is the 25%, is that after the Graco acquisition?

Steven J. Ford

Analyst · Joel Tiss

The 25% debt to cap that reflects the acquisition.

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Okay. So by the end of the year, could be better than that. Can you -- I wonder, Dave, if you could spend 1 minute just going through the pricing expectations by segment or just to give us a flavor of what's going on? Because it sounds like everyone's asking around the edges but not really asking questions directly. Maybe that will help.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Yes. What we would expect in Construction Materials, I don't think it'll be an environment where we can get price. The key will be, can we hold onto price, again, that we should have gotten last year. So that's a -- I think that's what going to happen in Construction Material. CIT, you'll see a little bit of price degradation due to AOC. I can't really tell you what that is at this point, but you will see some price -- negative price at CIT. Brake & Friction, I think, will be relatively flat. And I think FoodService, we could see 1% or 2%, but I think it'll be relatively flat as well on price.

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Okay, great. And then last, just may be philosophically. What's -- where's best in class on working capital? Isn't that close to that kind of 15% or even 10% to 50%?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Joel Tiss

I'm sorry, you broke up. What was that on working capital?

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · Joel Tiss

Your working capital. Where is the -- where's sort of the benchmark, the best-in-class guys on the benchmark versus your 17.5%?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Joel Tiss

I think we're there. It's just that we think we can do better. But as we look around a company, I think it 17.5%. That's pretty much world-class in our kind of a business.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Glenn Wortman. Glenn Wortman - Sidoti & Company, Inc.: Can you just remind us how fast the Liquid Finishing Brands business is growing and then the geographic breakdown for that business?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Glenn Wortman

Yes, it's -- first of all, geographic breakdown, more than 50% of it is outside the U.S. and it has been growing. Obviously, we've been tracking it. It's growing at mid-single digits, anywhere 4% to 7%. Glenn Wortman - Sidoti & Company, Inc.: Okay. And then the pricing concessions that you've alluded to for CIT, were those fully reflected in the first quarter number? Or do you expect more concessions going forward?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Glenn Wortman

No. If you're talking about AOC, those really took effect January 1. The pricing concessions that we talked at CIT were primarily driven by contractual requirements that as volume picks up, we would see some price decline. And that's the way most of our contracts are structured. We've talked in the past about learning curve. As you get up the learning curve, you become more productive and most of the contracts are structured that when that happens, price is given back at the same time. So in other words, margins should be maintained but you'll see a little less price.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Tim Wojs. Timothy Wojs - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Just on -- I don't know if this has been touched on yet, but just what are the -- you did about 20% EBIT margins in CIT this year. And just with some of the -- I don't know if there's any inefficiencies potentially within Nogales plant and then just the AOC. What should we think about for margins in CIT specifically for '15?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Tim Wojs

Tim, I think we'll start probably slightly above 15% at the start of the year and work our way back toward that 20% by year end. Timothy Wojs - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Okay, okay, perfect. And then just on Liquid Finishing, just so I have this conception how we should think about it. If it does close by the end of Q1, will most of any sort of inventory or onetime cost, would that normally -- or mostly impact Q2? So really in the back half of 2015, we'd start to see pretty much full accretion from that acquisition?

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Tim Wojs

Yes. If -- exactly right. If we close by the end of the first quarter, second quarter will have very little contribution on a profit side. Obviously, it's going to generate sales as we work through their existing inventory or the inventory basically marks up. Timothy Wojs - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Right. Okay. And then just on, I guess, the M&A pipeline. You've done a couple of acquisitions in the last couple of months here. I guess, any update on just rebuilding that pipeline, where you are and maybe what you're looking at.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Tim Wojs

Yes, in -- really, my answers just about the same as it is every year. The -- early in the year, it's always -- we end up bringing something to the finish line toward the end of the year. The pipeline drains and then as we get further into the year, we get a few things that become active. Right now, I would say the pipeline is not empty. But it's not as full as would normally be at the end of the year. But I don't expect that to last for the entire year. Tim, our focus will be on medical in CIT, and obviously, adding to Fluid Technologies.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

David A. Roberts

Analyst · Matthew McConnell

Okay. As we prepare to end the conference call, let's turn to Slide 18. We expect full year 2015 sales to grow organically in the mid- to high single digits. That doesn't include the potential contribution from LHi or Fluid Technologies. We also expect EBIT dollars and EBIT margins to show improvement and will be leveraged to our sales growth. If we're able to hold on to price at CCM as raw material cost decline, margins should show a very favorable leverage. We expect the acquisition of LHi to start to contribute to earnings late in the first quarter and throughout the remainder of the year. In the 3 to 4 months following the completion of the acquisition of Fluid Technologies, we expect the quarter to benefit from sales but remain neutral for earnings due to the acquisition accounting for inventory. Once past a few months following the acquisition, Fluid Technologies should contribute margins in the low teens. We will work to improve that performance as we implement COS, driving cost out of the business. You shouldn't expect to see any impact of COS activities in 2016, however. Corporate expenses will be approximately $54 million, with $18 million in the first quarter due to expensing of equity awards. D&A will be approximately $120 million and capital expenditures will be approximately $100 million. Free cash flow conversion will be approximately 100%. Interest expense approximately $34 million, and we are planning for a tax rate of approximately 33%. By business, I expect CCM to benefit from declining raw material cost environment, a very strong nonresidential construction market and a healthy reroofing market in both the U.S. and Europe. Please be reminded that sales will be a tough comparison in Europe in the first quarter. Sales should grow high single digits and earnings…