Dr. Shawn Qu
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Brian, that's a good question. Now I would like to provide my view. And your observation is that company who is going virtual integration into polysilicon, who have not seen success. My observation is that the effort to vertically integrate to the poly side by the module companies, that trend just started. That's why you haven't seen successful case yet. In the past, indeed, poly seems to be a separate step from the solar module processing value chain. Most of the so-called virtual companies start from ingot and then wafer, cell and module, and poly seems to be a different business. That's why you haven't been seeing the example of that kind of vertical integration. But it doesn't mean it won't be successful. Now we have done almost two years of visibility study. And what we observed is that now, first of all, on the technology side, the Siemens method or the refined Siemens method to produce poly, that has become a standard. There are standard design institutes, for example, in China, which handles the factory design for almost everybody from the current poly-only makers to the newcomers. And there are also a handful of chemical production -- chemical manufacturing, engineering and EPC companies, who is specified in the subcontract work for certain part of poly. Therefore, the process, especially the granular process, is different. But for the Siemens process, the technology becomes standardized. And cost-wise, in the past, the general feeling is that per watt investment for polysilicon is high. However, ever since 2020, the cost of -- like per watt cost of investment -- CapEx investment into poly has dropped to the same level of solar cell. And therefore, from the cost point of view, also from a technology point of view, poly is not a forbidden part anymore. It's something technologically accessible. As a matter of fact, there are quite a few newcomers and their capacity come online, as we speak. So in the next six months or nine months, we’ll see enough so-called newcomers efforts to ramp up their new facility. So by the time we ramp up, we will have lots of experience. We have lot -- we can see -- we can -- we have lots of previous experience we can reference to. And also, you asked me strategically why we have to build that. Now this is because solar is into a -- getting into a new era. In the past, we say the annual new solar installation is in the range of 100 to 200 gigawatt. However, we are seeing that the annual installation level, we believe it will grow significantly in the next 10 years, let's say. I would like to mention to you the new IEA report and also IRENA report. IRENA is the International Renewable Energy Agency. They are -- both of report shows that it will require 20,000 -- let me think, 20,000 terawatt, I believe, of solar installation globally -- accumulated solar installation globally by 2050 in order to -- for the major countries to achieve carbon neutral. Right now, we have just passed the 1 terawatt mark. I'm talking about the total -- global total accumulated installation. So there is still a lot of growth. With this kind of growth, supply chain bottleneck will happen all the time, especially on the polysilicon. So as one of the top 5 major solar module company, we believe we feel like we have to have control. We have to understand the poly. We have to have certain control of the poly. But it doesn't mean we will produce all the poly we use, but we will produce certain poly, right? So -- and we will have the flexibility in the future to ramp up if we have to. Thanks, Brian.