Andy Florance
Analyst · Pete Christiansen of Citi. Please go ahead
Good evening and thank you for joining us today for CoStar Group's third quarter 2020 earnings call. Total third quarter revenue was $426 million, up 21% year-over-year. For 20 years, CoStar has grown revenue 20% plus on a compound annual basis. Our performance this quarter is no different and shows clear evidence that in the midst of this pandemic, our business is strong, resilient and countercyclical. In the third quarter of 2020, all of our businesses performed well and continue to be solid, resilient and showed the performance that we saw as we exit the second quarter. In the third quarter, we achieved $53 million in quarterly sales bookings, a 53% increase over Q2 sales bookings. This was one of our strongest sales quarters ever despite the continued high levels of economic, social and public health uncertainty. Our marketplace businesses displayed very strong countercyclical growth with Apartments.com revenue up 23% in the third quarter 2020 over the third quarter of 2019. Similarly LoopNet revenue was up 19% year-over-year in the third quarter. Our earnings in the third quarter were very strong with net income of $58 million and adjusted EBITDA of $134 million. Our sales team at Apartments.com turned in one of their best performances ever in the third quarter with net new sales up a massive 59% versus the same quarter a year ago. Customers continue to invest in Apartments.com because of the strong and growing lead flow we deliver driven by growing site traffic and engagement. During the quarter, we set yet another record for site traffic. According to ComScore, for the third quarter, average unique visitors per month to the Apartments.com network of sites in the quarter was over 25 million, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago. The growth in lead flow was even stronger as total leads generated for our clients from the Apartments.com network of sites in the quarter was up 43% over the prior year quarter being the previous record by 16%. Our increased investment in marketing is driving these gains and allowing us to further distance ourselves from our competition. According to ComScore, in the third quarter, Apartments.com had 2.3 times as many unique visitors as RentPath, nine times as many as Zumper, 12 times as many as Apartment List and 22% more than the Zillow rental network. Third quarter over second quarter of 2020, the Apartments.com network added 14.5 million visits sequentially while RentPath went down 5.3 million visits. We believe that customers take notice of and care about the huge traffic and lead advantage Apartments.com offers them. Our customers routinely tell us who they are marketing with, including where they're marketing with RentPath. Since beginning of 2020, we estimate that we have added 36 million in annualized revenue to Apartments.com for multi-family properties that we're advertising on RentPath. We have added thousands of new properties as advertisers on Apartments.com this year. During the same time period, we do not believe that RentPath has grown their revenue. In fact, we can see from their advertised sales promotions, they're shifting their focus to reselling advertising solutions that in fact compete with ApartmentGuide and Rent.com. RentPath offers services placing ads for apartment communities on Facebook, social media, Google SCM and the like. They may be doing this because their core sites are less and less attractive to advertisers. We believe that the shift in their business has shift to lower margin less differentiated product. From when we entered into an agreement to acquire RentPath before any of us had ever heard of COVID, it seems like the world has changed. While we continue to seek approval at the Federal Trade Commission to close on our acquisition of RentPath, right now we're very focused on laying the groundwork for a very strong 2021 for Apartments.com. We believe that the total addressable for Apartments.com is huge and growing. In the U.S., 51% of the larger apartment communities was at least 100 units are advertising on Apartments.com. Our penetration of the multi-family market continues to grow as we added 879 more of these 100 unit plus communities this quarter alone with an overall average revenue per property of $1,060 per month. The opportunity to grow our client base and the properties was less than 100 units is much more exciting. They're both exciting, but the smaller mid-sized opportunities is really remarkable. Just 3% of the over 35 – 350,000 apartment communities with 5 to 100 units currently advertise with us. That's 3% of the 350,000 5 to 100 unit cadence are advertising, but that customer segment is growing at twice the rate of the larger 100 unit plus community advertisers. In the previous quarter alone, 820 communities with 5 to 100 units began new advertising relationships with us for an overall average revenue per property per month of $536. The broadest opportunity of all is to provide marketing and leasing solutions to the 18 million properties with one to four units. So far this year, we've sold about 5,900 ads to the one to four unit properties, including almost 2,700 in the third quarter at an average price of $150 per month. We are successfully adding clients from large, medium and small rental properties. This quarter, we blew pass the $600 million run rate in annualized revenue and yet we only sold advertising to less than 1% of the U.S. rental properties. We clearly have a huge opportunity here and intend to invest in growing our Apartments sales force into 2021 to capture more of this opportunity and the potential for high incremental margins. The Apartments.com brand is well positioned to capture this opportunity as I can argue Apartments.com is becoming a household name and part of the culture. As many of you seen, the proof point is the wonderful free advertising received earlier this month from the writers at Saturday Night Live. In the VP Fly Debate Cold Open, Jim Carrey playing Jeff Goldblum as the fly on Vice President Pence's head delivers our slogan Apartments.com is the place to find a place, while the Apartments.com logo displays tens of millions of viewers watched that awesome free placement. This quarter LoopNet was also able to prove resilient and countercyclical, recording a new all-time high in net new sales and year-over-year revenue growth of 19%. In the third quarter, LoopNet's record high and average monthly unique visitors at 8.3 million supported that revenue growth. That higher traffic drove a 70% increase in email and fun leads to our LoopNet advertisers in Q3 versus Q1 2020. We have implemented a comprehensive retargeting program this year, which we believe is instrumental to achieving both this growth in traffic and leads. LoopNet's strong traffic is driving strong sales of Diamond ads, our most prominent level, which reached a price point of $11,000 per month, an average $3,260 per month in the quarter. It's a bargain price point when compared to the hundreds of millions of dollars of potential lease route that these ads are marketing. At the same time, it's a huge number compared to the average price point of only $10 to $20 a month that the LoopNet was getting when we purchased LoopNet a little more than eight years ago. I'm convinced that LoopNet opportunity is just as big as Apartments.com. As we begin making plans for LoopNet in 2021, we intend to invest in growing both our sales force and our marketing with an eye to accelerating our revenue growth even faster. We are working with our advertising agency to build a powerful LoopNet marketing campaign for 2021 that will encourage both owners and brokers to unleash their digital potential by being in the know, by being in the loop. It's a bit of a retro campaign and that getting in the loop was one of the first campaigns for LoopNet back at its founding. But since we acquired LoopNet, the platform has certainly transformed from a slow growing website, offering ads, cheap ads on lower class B properties to the premier marketplace for world-class commercial real estate. We believe that now is the time to bring the LoopNet image and marketing up to the top level. You will know when we have achieved our goal when you hear the LoopNet slogan used in a future Saturday Night Live Cold Open Pence, Harris presidential debate four years from now. As LoopNet grows, we're adjusting our organizational structure continue to facilitate that growth. Going forward LoopNet's organizational structure will more mirror the Apartments.com organization, which we believe will allow it to focus fully on developing the growth potential of LoopNet where LoopNet in the past has shared leadership across product design, sales, customer service and marketing with CoStar going forward we'll have a dedicated management team within CoStar Group focused just on LoopNet growth. While the CoStar sales team will continue to sell CoStar for the foreseeable future, we have named James Moon, a veteran of the Apartments.com leadership team to Senior Vice President leading LoopNet's sales. Over the next 12 to 18 months, we plan to build out a dedicated LoopNet sales team with an incremental 100 to 200 sales professionals. We intend to announce a President of the LoopNet organization within the next month. We plan to place additional LoopNet leadership positions over the next few months. I want to highlight that all of our marketplaces are growing traffic. BizBuySell, hit a new record in average monthly unique visitors this quarter. The LandsofAmerica network also set a record this quarter and is now growing so fast. It's approaching LoopNet's traffic level with 6.8 million monthly unique visitors. The lands network monthly unique visitor counts soared 80% year-over-year. We complete our acquisition of Ten-X at the end of the second quarter this year. And after only three months with a business, I'm more excited than ever about its potential. One of the first steps we've taken is to put any property going to auction on Ten-X to the top of LoopNet and CoStar and present them as upgraded diamond placements with enhanced retargeting. This is dramatically increasing their exposure to potential bitters. The benefit was immediate and dramatic. On the auctions that took place following this upgrade exposure, we saw the number of qualified bidders coming to Ten-X jump by 47%. We also observed a 19 percentage point increase in trade rate to 68% versus prior year. The trade rate is a percentage of the successful sales at auction divided by total number of properties brought to that auction. This trade rate of 68% is groundbreaking. Based on CoStar and LoopNet data on sales transactions over the past three years or even longer, the trade rate on traditional offline commercial real estate sales transactions is only 36%, 64% do not sell on their first listing. The minority that did sell were on the market for an average of 500 days before they sold. Obviously specific properties vary widely, but those are pretty depressing numbers. Property selling in the traditional method took five times as long to sell on average compared to the 90 days it takes to sell a property in Ten-X. On Ten-X, both sellers and brokers have a higher probability of closing the sale at a much faster pace. Hypothetically, a broker utilizing Ten-X can sell twice as many properties in a quarter as an offline broker can sell in a year. We believe that that is a major game changer, a potentially apt comparisons of traditional commercial real estate sales market is back to the days of the OTC Pink sheets, which is a slow, expensive, illiquid and not very transparent market. We believe that Ten-X could be comparable to the advent of NASDAQ in the '90s, which dramatically increased price transparency, volume and liquidity in the OTC markets. The upside potential for every player in the commercial real estate market is tremendous and good. We are prioritizing the integration of Ten-X technology with both CoStar and LoopNet to be ready for what could be a significant wave of distressed properties coming to the market in the next 12 to 24 months. We will soon have reached real-time information on properties coming to auction fed directly to CoStar and LoopNet, creating additional exposure and interest from our 150,000 plus CoStar users and 7.8 million monthly LoopNet visitors. The full merger of the two back ends is expected to be achieved during 2021. Ten-X is an exciting space to watch, even from an operational perspective I think that once we get those real-time feeds going, everyone would be glued to their screens as the auctions take place. Costar has continued to grow through the pandemic despite the pandemic's negative impact on commercial real estate. CoStar revenue grew 6% in Q3 over the same quarter a year ago. Net sales bookings surge back from a soft second quarter growing 146% third quarter over second quarter of 2020. Considering the skill of disruption to commercial real estate this year, I'm very impressed with our team's ability to maintain a strong renewal rate as we have. The vast majority of cancellations from the second quarter occurred among small one and two agent broker shops. Over the past six months, only six firms with five or more brokers have canceled their contracts. Clearly, demonstrating the information analytics that CoStar provides are truly mission critical. I'm very optimistic about CoStar's potential moving into 2021. Just one of our headline product enhancements in the pipeline for CoStar is the integration of robust CMBS data into CoStar. The CMBS data includes deep information on over a hundred thousand commercial estate loans with 90,000 tenant lease expiration dates, 40,000 detailed operating statements and details of thousands of distressed loans. CoStar customers will be able to search for properties based on loan maturity date and payment status. They'll have access to detailed operating statements on a property level and tenant lease expiration dates. We'll build income and expense models that customers can use to build their assumptions on acquisitions, valuations or developments. We will be able to use this data to inform our forecast models and analytics, and to enhance our overall research efforts. I'm also excited about the multitude of major enhancements we have in the work as we integrate hospitality information into CoStar. We are close to integrating all of STR's properties into the CoStar database. We are building a suite of hospitality analytic tools into CoStar that we believe will be the best-in-class. We have designed the next phase of developments to migrate the STR benchmarking capabilities from emailed worksheets to a fully digitized end-to-end SaaS benchmarking solution for the hospitality industry, all integrated with CoStar. We aim to offer a broad range of functionalities, including a dashboard view of traditional benchmarks such as RevPAR and all the star reports and also the P&L metrics and forward booking data. The tool will have enhanced portfolio analytics. I believe that this is a potential killer app in the hospitality segment. While the analytics and benchmarking we are building here are specific to hospitality, I think it's particularly exciting because it creates a proof-of-concept for CoStar's ability to deliver robust benchmarking across other commercial real estate asset classes in the future. In addition, we have made excellent progress in our track to deliver a full featured internationalized and polyglot version of CoStar in 2021. If you think Siri analytics are cool, both of you, then you would love seeing our new capabilities to generate on-the-fly, real-time, aggregated comparative analytics from multiple countries, multiple languages and multiple currencies all presented in the currency localization and language of the user's choice. So exciting. Given the progress on international CoStar, it's timely that we're announcing today the closing of our purchase of Emporis, a German-based international commercial real estate data provider. Acquiring Emporis allows us to integrate their 700,000 building records, and over 600,000 images across 100 countries into CoStar, providing a jumpstart to our international data collection efforts. In 2021, we plan to integrate, enhance the international data we have from our existing operations, and Spain and Germany into CoStar. Beyond this, we've identified additional 50 international cities that we plan to add to CoStar with cost efficient data collection efforts, initiated over the course of the next 24 months. We believe that market opportunity for us internationally is more than twice the market opportunity in North America. If you've noticed over the past six months, we've increased our cash reserves through a combination of equity and debt funding to almost $4 billion in cash. I expect that the questions at the end of this call will be similar to every prior call and that someone will rightfully ask; where are you with merger and acquisitions? Given that I cannot discuss specific targets or potential transactions, I thought it's helpful to clarify what we look for and the criteria we apply when we're evaluating acquisition opportunities. So let me answer the quick question advance, but likely the question will be asked anyhow during Q&A just slightly differently, but nuance is fun. We're a disciplined acquirer. Our strong balance sheet and stated intention to deploy our cash for M&A have attracted attention from practically anybody considering selling their business in the proptech space. It's a big group. There are currently 7,000 proptech companies trying to create value by digitizing real estate. It's our practice to be open-minded and talk to everyone and consider carefully all potential acquisition opportunities; the vast majority of which we don't pursue. For the ones that we do not pursue, it could be because they're too far field, too far, from what we do, overvalued not strategically valuable, too small, throw red flags and due diligence, or have no clear path to accelerate growth among other reasons. One common theme for us has been to use acquisitions to enter a new closely related real estate segment. For example, we acquired national retail Bureau to jumpstart our retail entry. We acquired Apartments.com to enter the apartment sector. We acquired STR to enter hospitality. We acquired LandsofAmerica as a rural land space. In these cases, 75% of the technology and processes are identical to what we already do, maybe more than 75%. Placing a point on map at geo query presenting acres and square feet, property photos, and videos, property characteristics, marketplaces, aggregate analytics, and more are the same from one property type to another. Our expertise in one sector enables us to innovate quickly into a new segment. We believe that each time we add a new property segment, our solutions become more valuable to many of our clients because we offer them a more comprehensive solution to their needs. Banks almost always lend money across many property types. Praisers often value almost always more than just one property type. Brokers transact across multiple property types. Local government deals with all kinds of property types. Owners often own more than just one property type. Giving these clients consistent convenient information solutions in one integrated offering is invaluable to them. Another theme for us is to target entering closer related solutions in the same property segment. For example, CoStar is and was a strong commercial real estate information solutions provider with a lot of data. And by acquiring LoopNet, we added commercial real estate market expertise and revenue. The commercial real estate information resources we already had allowed us to quickly innovate the marketplace solutions, LoopNet offered making them more valuable to searchers. Once we integrate the data behind LoopNet and CoStar each product essentially generates free data for the other as a by-product making each more valuable. We sometimes acquire companies with complimentary geographic footprints with similar segment coverage and solutions in order to accelerate our geographic expansion efforts. We built-up much of our U.S. coverage, 10 years to 15 years ago this way, and some of the European coverage about 10 years ago, five years ago. We often prefer to buy companies that are slow growing, where we believe we see strategies to accelerate their growth rate. We have a strong track record of buying slow growing companies and accelerating their growth rates. Today, Apartments.com is 6 times the size it was when we acquired it. LoopNet is over 4 times. Real Estate Manager is almost 6 times as big, and COMPS.com is over 8 times as big. Most of these companies were growing in the low single-digits, if at all when we acquired them and we then accelerated them to strong consistent, double-digit growth. We jumped when we see a chance to acquire a larger company that has a similar product with redundant cost structures. Our acquisition of ForRent is a good example of acquiring a company, eliminating most of the cost structure while maintaining most of the revenue. It's great when you can do a deal where you're converting revenue into EBITDA. We prefer to acquire larger companies to have obtained scale results for relatively the same efforts; it's called the Frank Carchedi theory. Since acquiring small or large company seemed to take about the same amount of effort to do right, it makes sense to acquire larger ones. We generally invest in smaller companies only to obtain strategic new product solutions or for the purpose of research and development. Each of the acquisitions we consider must have multiple opportunities to create significant growth and profit for the business. Otherwise we typically pass on the deal. With this approach, it only takes one of multiple possible investment theses to pan out in order for these acquisition to succeed. Historically, we've taken a balanced to conservative approach to financing acquisitions. Over the past 10 years, we've deployed approximately $6 billion for acquisitions and have leveraged operating cash, equity raises and short-term debt in roughly equal parts to fund these deals. We anticipate continuing this balanced funding approach in the future with one additional criteria as a result of our debt offering. Going forward, we're absolutely committed to protecting and maintaining our investment grade credit rating. Finally, I'm going to wrap up with some observations about the real estate economy, looking to the economy and the current state of the commercial real estate. We see a labor market recover that is noticeably slowing. Furloughed workers contain to be rehired as the economy reopens, but a slower and slower pace each month. The hardest hit sectors the economy like: restaurants, hospitality, and entertainment are struggling to try and reopen safely as colder months of the year approach. And what appears to be a third wave of infections is beginning to ramp up, whereas Dr. Fauci says the first wave. But an interesting thing is happening. Even if the possibility of new stimulus seems to be fading, measures of household and business confidence have been rising recently, and census data of new business formation shows that growth in new companies is up nearly 40% from a year ago, more than triple the growth rate at this time in 2019. This isn't what we normally see during recessions. New business formations fell 15% in 2008 and where zero in 2009. Commercial real estate weathered a tough second quarter and showed resilience in Q3 2020, even the hardest hit sectors of the market. Hotel occupancy continued to slow ground higher reaching 50% by quarter-end. Parts of the retail landscape clearly remain challenged by reduced traffic and social distancing mandates. But I should know that leasing volumes recovered strongly for retail assets in the third quarter. Retail properties leased to essential credit tenants had been a bright spot, as well as discounters and grocery anchored properties. We've seen groceries taking over previously challenged spaces, vacated by home good retailers and even booksellers. This is maybe a good time to note that Amazon opened its first physical grocery store during the third quarter called Amazon Fresh; there is still plenty of distress to work out in retail and hospitality. And we're continuing to see increased usage of the product from our clients and asset management credit and especially valuation departments. We've heard from clients that CoStar's clients – that CoStar services are more mission critical now than ever before. And I think that shows in CoStar's resilience. On the other hand, I hardly need to tell you that the industrial sectors enjoyed great tailwinds in the current e-commerce driven environment. CoStar data tells us that the third quarter 2020 was actually a new record for industrial leasing volume. Amazon obviously led the way, but a deep roster of firms are looking to expand their distribution footprints to catch-up. Walmart and Target have been especially active this year. Along with third party logistics firms, home good retailers and a long list of others. The surgeon leasing demand is coming at the perfect time as there's a record amount of space set to deliver in the near term, much of which remains available. The office market has been inundated with headlines for months now with competing stories of this company shifting towards permanent remote work, while another company is starting to move towards a return to office. It seems inevitable there'll be increased adoption of flexible work schedules to some degree, but they'll also be demand for more space for social distancing. It's interesting to note that one of the biggest office deals during the third quarter was Facebook's purchase of a brand new 400,000 square foot office campus in Bellevue, Washington with a price tag of over $350 million. That shows a lot of money to spend in lot of office space. They aren't the only big tech companies buying or leasing office space in the third quarter, the likes of Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and others have been very active acquiring office space. The Multifamily sector has been one of the most fascinating to track over the last seven months. There isn't a lot of high-frequency day in the commercial estate market, but Apartments.com provides us with millions of data points each day on rents and availabilities giving us real time views of the market, a large supply wave of four and five star properties in downtown CBD locations as continued to push those rents lower. After the second quarter produced the lowest net absorption eight years, there were fears of a loss leasing season for 2020, but Q3 absorption rocketed back. It was the largest third quarter ever recorded at CoStar showing that apartment demand is simply been pent-up during the first few months of the quarantine. The 2020 leasing season has simply been delayed and higher vacancies and expensive, newly delivered product are an expanded opportunity set for Apartments.com to help owners to fill those units. The real estate capital markets have begun to show some stabilization. Third quarter deal volume was down 40% from last year, but a closure look shows that each month a quarter got better. September deal volume was only $4 billion short of the average September in the last five years; only $4 billion. A selling of the lending markets has certainly helped as CMBS spreads have come back down from their widest levels and new issuance has picked up. Looking at pricing, our same store price indices indicate valuations have largely plateaued and are showing year-over-year declines or broadly higher cap rates. This is flattening of prices around pre-COVID levels is consistent with what we are hearing from clients. There's still plenty of demand for good assets, and those that trade aren't going for meaningful discounts. More challenged assets are simply not trading, if they don't have to. It seems that few are being forced to trade today as underwriting standards and leverage were more conservative going into this downturn than the last. We know from CMBS delinquency and special servicing rates that a wave of distressed assets and hospitality and retail is coming and the Ten-X platform is expected to give us insight in a investor demand for this properties. We believe the mountain of dry powder waiting on distressed properties is large, which will make an interesting space as we look into 2021 and beyond. This quarter is again, demonstrated that our data and information are mission critical to our customers, that our marking business are counter cyclical. We're extremely pleased with our strong third quarter results and we're very excited about a strong finish to the year and a great 2021 around the quarter. So, and to talk more about the growth, I'm going to ask our CFO, Scott Wheeler to please wear a mask when he's shopping in our store, and then he can deliver his report for the quarter.