Brian J. Radecki
Analyst · Brett Huff, Stephens, Inc
Thank you, Andy, I appreciate that, I guess. So the $0.5 billion, I guess, so when you look at the midpoint of next year's or next quarter's guidance, it's over $0.5 billion, so $476 million, so approaching $600 million already. So look at that. And the call, is not even over yet. We just upped the numbers. As Andy mentioned, we're very pleased with our performance in the first quarter of 2014. On the heels of an outstanding annual result in 2013, we reported 26% growth in annual revenues. 2014 is off to a great start the, growing organic revenue in the midteens, expanding EBITDA margins year-over-year and closing the Apartments.com acquisition. The company is clearly positioned for sustained, long-term growth. CoStar's information analytics and online marketplaces continue to show strong revenue growth and the ongoing success of the LoopNet integration an d cross selling efforts continue to be a big contributor to growth in both revenue and earnings. Today now, I'm going to primarily focus on the year-over-year comparisons for the first quarter of 2014, which is prior to the Apartments.com acquisition, and then I'll focus on our outlook for the remainder of 2014, which incorporates the Apartment.com business into our results. Starting with CoStar Group's results, for the first quarter 2014, the company reported $119.1 million of revenue, an increased of approximately 15% compared to $104 million last year. This revenue growth was driven by strong information services performance, strong revenue growth from LoopNet in all of our marketplaces. EBITDA increased $19.4 million to $27 million in the first quarter of 2014, up 7.6% or as my boss' favorite headline is, 255% from the prior year. He loves that stat, sorry. It kills me. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $37 million for the first quarter of 2014, which is an increase of $11.3 million or approximately 44% compared to the $25.7 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins increased to $31.1 million in Q1 of 2014 from 24.7% last year. So that's a 6.4% increase year-over-year on a $476 million run rate, that's pretty significant. Net income from Q1 of 2014 was $9.7 million or $0.34 per diluted share, which is an increase of 12.1% from a net loss of $2.4 million in the first quarter of 2013. Non-GAAP net income of Q1 was $19.8 million or $0.69 per diluted share, which is a 52% increase over the $13 million or $0.47 per diluted share from last year. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP net income, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and all non-GAAP financial measures discussed on the call today to their GAAP basis results are shown in detail, along with definitions for those terms in our press release issued yesterday and are available on our website at www.costar.com or just e-mail rsimonelli@costar.com. Cash and investments was $245.6 million as of March 31, 2014. Short-term debt totaled $148.8 million as of March 31, 2014. On April 1, 2014, the company entered into a credit agreement of $625 million, which includes a $400 million term loan facility and a $225 million revolving credit facility, each with a term of 5 years. Initial borrowing under the revolver is $150 million, so the total new debt outstanding on the company after we closed the acquisition is $550 million. The new debt was used in combination with cash on hand to fund the Apartments.com acquisition and refinance the existing debt. We expect approximately $14 million in total interest expense for this year. At this point, I'm going to give some additional color on a few metrics to highlight our strong performance in the first quarter of 2014. We achieved $14.7 million in net new sales of subscriptions services on annual contracts in the first quarter as a result of our ongoing success driving the sales of our information, cross-selling analytics and marketplace services into the business. This result is in line with the sales for the first quarter of 2013. Last quarter, Andy and I spoke at length about the great progress on expanding our field sales force, which now include 218 reps. It's possible now, we'll be welcoming approximately 85 reps from apartments, which will also be growing this year. Based on our aggressive hiring at the tail end of 2013, about half our reps have less than a year with us. We remain very focused on training and developing all these new sellers to bring them up the productivity curve as quickly as possible, which is typically 6 to 12 months. So while we're training and developing these new reps, I expect sales trends in the first half of 2014, as I talked about last quarter, to be somewhat lower than the prior years and then begin to ramp up in the second half of this year and really ramp all the way through 2015 as productivity increases throughout the sales force. Remember, half the sales force is new and they're learning from the other half of the sales force who's had experience, and that takes time and energy. Throughout 2013 into 2014, we have continued to deliver nice sales numbers while undergoing this significant transformation, and I will expect to start seeing strong returns from those efforts later this year. Obviously, we had a strong March, but we want to see another 3, 4, 5 months of strong sales. Revenue from subscription services on annual contracts was $91.5 million for the first quarter or 76.8% of total revenue, up from 73.1% a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended March 31, subscription revenue from annual contracts totaled $342.4 million, up 21% from the $283 million 12 months ago, 12 months ended March 31, 2013. So essentially, at the end of the first quarter, we had approximately 77% of our revenue coming from annual subscriptions. We continue to make progress upselling LoopNet subscribers on annual contracts, and we have increased the proportion of our revenue coming from annual subscriptions by about 6% since the LoopNet acquisition closed. The remaining 23% is primarily made up of marketing services including LoopNet's Premium Membership on monthly or quarterly agreements, as well as revenue from advertising across both platforms. The renewal rates for annual subscription revenue remained very high during the first quarter. The 12-month trailing renewal rate on CoStar's subscription services was 93% in the first quarter, in line with the previous quarter. As we've discussed in the last few quarters as we continue to introduce more annual LoopNet contracts in the subscription base, it is expected to cause the 12-month trailing renewal rate to edge down slightly, possibly 1% or 2% over the next year or so. The renewal rate for CoStar subscribers who have been with us for 5 years or longer continues to remain at an astounding 98%, which is consistent for the past few quarters. As we move forward and begin to report financial results, which include Apartments.com, we'll relook at the metrics we're currently providing in order to make sure we're giving appropriate insight into the newly acquired marketplace. As Andy discussed, we're deep into the planning and integration of the Apartment.com team. We believe we have a great opportunity to accelerate the growth in that business. First, we have to carve out the Apartments.com business in technology and infrastructure from its old parent company and bring that into CoStar's data centers and technology environment. That's expected to take several quarters, but the work is already underway and that will come with some small incremental capital expenditures. Secondly, as Andy discussed, we'll be dedicating additional product design development teams from across CoStar to complete the redesign of the Apartments website and mobile applications. This is a large software development effort and will likely involve additional resources investment and some software cap. We also expect to eliminate some small non-core apartment services that are expected to impact revenues by $2 million to $3 million this year. In terms of selling and marketing, we've already started making some investments that we believe will drive increased revenue growth later this year, into 2015 and beyond. Obviously, I included synergies already. We're expanding the apartment sales force, just like we're seeing at CoStar, and we believe that will set the stage for improved growth in a few quarters as we get those positions staffed and up the productivity curve. In addition, we've made some additional marketing efforts to support this. As many of you on this call know, prior to the Apartments.com acquisition, CoStar successfully integrated 20-plus acquisitions in the digital real estate space since I've been here. As you can see from all the activity Andy and I discussed this morning, we are fully engaged to maximize the growth opportunities and ensure the success of the Apartments.com acquisition by applying all of our successful experiences from these prior acquisition, some just like LoopNet. Now, onto the outlook. I'll discuss the second quarter outlook and the full year of 2014. Our guidance takes into account recent trends, growth rates, renewal rates, which may be impacted by economic conditions in commercial real estate or the overall global economy, among other things. Our guidance on the impact on foreign currency fluctuations on our top line results remain consistent. We do not attempt to predict foreign exchange rates or fluctuations on our guidance and we assume little or no volatility. Actual results may vary from these estimates. We're providing the outlook reflecting our current expectations as of today, April 24, 2014. Based on the April 1 closing date for the Apartments acquisition, our outlook includes the impact of the Apartments.com acquisition for the remaining 3 quarters. As we said when we announced the acquisition, we expect the Apartments deal to be accretive to 2014 non-GAAP earnings and adjusted EBITDA. Our outlook includes purchase accounting adjustments, as well as various fees and expenses associated with closing the transaction and integrating these companies. For the full year 2014, we now expect consolidated revenues of approximately $560 million to $570 million, which takes into account revenue from Costar's existing business of $490 million to $498 million, including our first quarter. So we've included some upsides from our first quarter there and revenue from the Apartments business from April forward, including some nice growth for them, plus on top of that, $3 million or $4 million of synergies realized in 2014, partially offset by a small reduction in $2 million to $3 million, as I mentioned earlier, of non-core revenue as I talked about. This revenue range equates to 27% to 29% annual revenue growth, which follows our 2013 reported revenue growth of 26% and follows a 30-plus percent year, the year before that. For comparison, in $3 million to $4 million in expected revenue synergies for this year, comparing that to sort of LoopNet, that is higher than what we recognized in the first 9 months of the LoopNet acquisition, so it's -- I'm putting lots of expected things in there and we've only owned the company for 2.5 to 3 weeks. So, I believe it's a pretty strong range, which really, like I said, we're including growth for them and synergies on top of that. We expect revenue for the second quarter in the range of $143 million to $145 million. When we announced the acquisition, we stated we believe we can achieve $20 million annualized synergies over the next 24 months. This estimate includes both revenue in cost synergies. Just like we achieved at the LoopNet acquisition, there's potential for significant revenue synergies throughout the cross-selling of both platforms and customer bases. So obviously, we hope that, that number is bigger as time goes on. In terms of earnings, we're raising our guidance range for 2014 fully diluted non-GAAP net income per share to 3.05% to 3.15% per share based on 28.8 million shares. We currently assume a 38% tax rate to approximate our long-term effective corporate tax rate. Just like the revenue, our guidance includes CoStar's existing business with the guidance we gave in February, 6 weeks ago -- wait, let me read that again, 6 weeks ago of $2.92 to $3.02 per share. We added some upside from our strong first quarter. We added the impact of the Apartments acquisition for the last 3 quarters of this year. We had a little higher interest expense, the impact on the acquisition to interest expense for the debt of $0.18 and investments we're making in selling and marketing for the remainder of the year, which represents about $0.19 per share and $9 million. As shown in our guidance table at the back of our press release, we are increasing our estimate for adjusted EBITDA by about $15 million to a range of $171 million to $175 million of EBITDA. The increase is primarily related to the impact of the Apartments acquisition. I'm going to add a little bit. So just make sure everybody's clear, I didn't line item all the cost to carve out the business. We did process payroll on day 1 of CoStar. So if you understand what a carve out looks like, they didn't have any other owned payroll processing accounts payable, they didn't have their own server rooms, so CoStar has to move and bill all that. So there's a lot of other expenses in here, but I didn't want to line item out the $50,000 for payroll, the $5,000 for granola bars and the $400 for plant service for the new things. So there are some other costs associated. The core CoStar business continues to go strong, most of the additional costs are on Apartments for this year. So for the second quarter of 2014, we be expect non-GAAP net income per diluted share of approximately $0.69 to $0.73 based on 28.8 million shares. In summary, I'm very pleased with CoStar's financial results for the first quarter of 2014, which clearly shows strong organic growth and margin expansion. As Andy mentioned several times, I believe the opportunity in the multi-family space is massive and we believe we can make the investments in the business now that will drive further growth and get the Apartments growth rates up to the CoStar business and LoopNet business and possibly higher, and market share gains moving forward. Like the acquisitions we have done for decades and specifically over the past few years, we believe the Apartments.com acquisition significantly increases Costar's addressable market in the digital real estate space and allows us to leverage our industry-leading assets and information analytics and marketplaces to accelerate revenue growth at high incremental margins. We continue to believe the consolidated company is operating in a multibillion-dollar revenue opportunity and we are focused on executing to capture that opportunity. Based on the growth trajectories of the combined business today, as well as the expected synergies we expect from the businesses, we believe we can deliver on our long-term goal of achieving a run rate of $800 million of annualized revenue at a 40-plus percent adjusted margin in the fourth quarter of 2016, 1 year earlier than previously expected. And since -- I'm going to adlib again here. Since Andy just let the cat out of the bag, we believe we could actually reach $1 billion with the current platform today, somewhere around the fourth quarter of 2018. And if you want the model, just e-mail Andy at costar.com, and he'll send it to you.