Earnings Labs

Cosan S.A. (CSAN)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 13, 2019

$4.18

+4.76%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Cosan S.A. Second Quarter of 2019 Results Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Phillipe Casale, Investor Relations, Executive Manager; and Mr. João Arthur Souza, Head of Finance. We would like to inform you that this event is recorded and all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the Company’s presentation, After Cosan’s remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session for industry analysts. At that time, further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions] The audio and the slideshow of this presentation are available through live webcast at ir.cosan.com.br. The slides can also be downloaded from the webcast platform. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Cosan’s management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they related to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Cosan and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Phillipe Casale. Mr. Casale, you may begin your call.

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Cosan S.A.’s second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. 2019 started with more promising signs of economic activity. Delay in approving pension reform, however, ended up frustrating a bit those expectations and causing economic activity to slowdown throughout the quarter. But the diversification of our portfolio assured consolidated EBITDA growth for Cosan. Before we go through results on Slide 4, I would like to take the opportunity to explain the structure and the rationale of the deal around convenience stores announced by Raízen last week. Raízen sold 50% stake of its convenience store business to Femsa forming a 50/50 JV. Their convenience store business was valued at R$1.1 billion of enterprise value implying a multiple to EBITDA around 13 times. Femsa will pay R$560 million for its 50% stake. Once this transaction is complete, each partner will inject R$160 million in the JV to support expenses and investments for the first three years cycle in which we expect to add some 500 new stores. This JV will operate with two solid brands. Shell Select for traditional service station franchise model and OXXO with – which will focus on the proximity stores market. Raízen’s partner brings proven expertise in leadership in the retail segment, which will enhance our growth capacity in this segment, helping to upgrade our value proposition to franchisees, who are core to Raízen’s strategy and bringing greater efficiency to investments and operations. Closing of the deal is dependent upon the approval of the antitrust commission, CADE and other standard conditions. Let’s move to Slide 5 to discuss Raízen Combustíveis’ results. Raízen delivered the higher sales volume and EBITDA in the quarter rising 8% and 5% respectively reflecting consistency of its strategy and solid operations. Before discussing the 2Q 2019, let’s take a look at…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now begin the question-and-answer session for investors and analysts. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Luiz Carvalho, UBS. You may proceed.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Hi Phillipe, thank you for the call. I have basically three questions here, if I may. The first one is regarding Argentina. I mean due to the recent events in the country and the actual depreciation of the currency, I just would like to know the company approach in terms of pricing fuel, the prices through to domestic prices and how this could impact between $210 million to $260 million EBITDA guidance for this year. The second one is about the distribution margins in Brazil in Raízen Combustíveis. We saw from how the drop as well in the first – compared to the first quarter, there’s a chart in the presentation that shows that, I don’t know, years ago, we had a rebound. So if you can share with us your perspective for the margin’s behavior during the second half of the year, that would be useful. And my third question is more about the potential investments in potential new businesses. I mean there is lots of opportunity with the – I’m going to talk in Portuguese [Foreign Language] potential natural gas pipelines and the natural gas distribution. So how Cosan is prepared potentially actually to join this market and take some advantage of integration. Thank you very much.

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Hi Luiz, thanks for your questions. So probably, the first one in terms of Argentina, of course, as we have been stating in the past few calls we have in the market, any time you have a strong or enough depreciation of the Argentinian peso, this may impact the structure and ability of the company. If you adjust the prices in peso terms, right, you know this is a U.S. dollars functional currency business, right. But over time, what happened is that we see that the prices adjust throughout the following months. So when you look, despite political and economic environment, on the long run, EBITDA has been relatively stable in different political and economic environment. So with that said, we are confirming the guidance for the year, which has a wide range that would absorb those volatilities that we are seeing right now. So there’s no plans as of now to change the guidance. But of course, we are aiming more to deliver on – off the Argentina EBITDA guidance as of now. When you look at the distribution margins in Brazil, we’ve been pretty clear, the market saw part of the movements on prices, which impacted the results, specifically on the second quarter. We remembered that the second quarter of the year usually is the one where we see the impact on the margin, mainly due to the ethanol pricing performance here because of the beginning of the harvest. We have this quarter specifically a change in the periodicity of the price movements from Petrobras, which impacted, of course, our ability in terms on delivering on what we expected at first. And as well we are seeing demand not as one could expect at the beginning of the year. So when we look on the first quarter of…

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Thank you. If I just check if I understood correctly, so in Raízen Combustíveis Brazil, you’re also targeting the lower part of the guidance, correct?

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Yes. For Raízen Combustíveis Brazil, we are now looking more to the low range of the guidance rather than the mid that we always do when we set the guidance. And remember, we designed this, we developed this, we analyzed this guidance when the GDP expectations for the year was around 2%, 3% as we have moved over the first semester of the year.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Regis Cardoso, Crédit Suisse.

Regis Cardoso

Analyst

Absolutely. Thanks for taking the question. Just a little bit more on the fuel distribution theme. If our calculation in assuming that the range that you just mentioned are correct, you’d require some margins of around – EBITDA margins of R$115 to R$120 per cubic meter in the second half of this year in order to reach the low end of the guidance, which I mean it’s feasible. And it seems, particularly given the positive seasonality of the second half, that seems aligned with your original expectations for the full year of 2019. But nevertheless, it’s a big jump from the current R$85 per cubic meter you posted in the second quarter in Raízen Combustíveis. So my question is what do you believe needs to happen for you to be able to reach that guidance or that is to materialize this much higher level of margins in the second half? Does it require having import gains? Does it require having inventory gains that revert any best movements? Or is it for you just maintaining the replacement margins that you had at the end of second quarter? Or do you still have to count on further expansions? I mean my question more generally is what needs to happen so that you’d be able to reach these much higher margins, between R$115 and R$120 coming from R$85? Thanks.

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Regis, thanks for the question. Well, we’ve discussed a little bit the impacts of the second quarter of 2019. And actually this pressured the margins in the quarter specifically, which we cannot guarantee that, that same effect will be present in the second half, right? So what we are looking here historically is that the second half shows an improvement on margins, right? And this is what we will guide on the guidance as we mentioned. We’re going to keep the focus on our supply and our commercialization strategy, so looking at opportunities on the imports, managing the inventories. And this is part of the recurring strategy of Raízen. So it’s keep managing the business, making the long-term relationships with our sellers, focusing on maximizing and having an adequate return for the business. So we’re going to do more of the same. And again, the second quarter was impacted by specific events that we mentioned on the call.

Regis Cardoso

Analyst

Thanks very much. If I may, just a second question on Comgás. Just if you could update us briefly on how the discussion regarding the pending decisions or the pending discussions for the past tariff review cycle, the one that was kept?

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Regis, there is no schedule defined yet on this process. And Comgás and the company will let the market know as soon as we have news about that.

Regis Cardoso

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

next question comes from Fernanda Cunha, Citibank.

Pedro Medeiros

Analyst

Hi, guys. It’s actually Pedro Medeiros. Well, I have a couple of questions related to the JV originally announced with FEMSA. Can you walk us through the expectations of value accretion from the JV? And is there any plan to include your Argentina assets into the joint venture? The second question is about capital allocation. It’s a very specific question. If you can talk about potential M&A opportunities in the natural gas market and whether your company is evaluating any potential opportunity there. I’ll leave it there. These are my two questions.

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Pedro, thank you for the question. So first, in convenience store business, so we brought a partner here that has a well-known expertise on the retail business. And we have plans on developing not only the convenience store business but also the proximity one, right? So the JV is operating in Brazil. And we have a plan to reach in the next two years around an addition of 500 new stores. So this is the initial plan here. The company will have the R$220 million that we stated for expenses and investments on this first cycle. And it’s again a JV formed to operate in Brazil as of now. In regards to your question about the gas business, we have to remember that Brazil is long in natural gas and Comgás has an operation here, specifically on the concession area. And there is – that’s what, as Cosan, we’re going to look at the opportunities in Brazil, again, long in gas. But there’s no definitions or anything that we can share now with the market.

Pedro Medeiros

Analyst

Okay, okay. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Lucas Ferreira, JPMorgan.

Lucas Ferreira

Analyst

Hi, Phillipe. Good morning, everyone. My first question, Phillipe, on the sugar and ethanol business. So how do you see your perspectives for the full crop in terms of crushing and productivity? If you can share if that changed in the last couple of weeks or not. And if you can still think about reaching the sort of the midpoint guidance of EBITDA for the full year and CapEx as well. And my second question regarding the JV with FEMSA, if you guys have already defined who’s going to be running the JV, who’s going to be the management team. And if it’s not yet defined, when that should happen and who’s going to be electing them? I suppose, of course, the new Board. But is there any kind of sort of appointment by FEMSA of bringing someone from their operations? If you can give us more details. Thank you.

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Lucas, thanks for the question. I’ll start with the second one first. So the JV will have a Board with six members appointed by each shareholder. That’s after the closing of the deal, we’ll define the names that will run the business. So it’s not – it’s not public and it’s not defined yet. So these will come as soon as we have the closing of the business and then the Board, of course, electing the executives. And going for your question in the sugar, on the perspective for the crop, we reiterate our guidance looking at midpoint of crushing. So we’re talking about 62 million tons for the crop year. There is no change in that. We are focusing a lot, as we mentioned, on doing the planting and the harvesting in the most efficient way, including the facilities or the specific technologies that we implemented to yield and to harvest better our crops here. As you remember, the first cycle of investments in Raízen was focused on logistics, where we are now putting more efforts on optimization and productivity of our sugarcane fields. So the decrease in the renewal, it still decreased the average age of our sugarcane fields and by consequence, improving the productivity of our fields. So looking at the guidance, we are still aiming here the midpoint for Raízen Energia, not only for EBITDA but also for CapEx.

Lucas Ferreira

Analyst

Thank you, Phillipe.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Thank you. With no further questions, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Phillipe Casale. You may proceed.

Phillipe Casale

Analyst

Thank you, everyone, for joining the call, and talk to you in the next opportunity.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes the question-and-answer session for investors and analysts and also the call. Have a nice day.