Benoit Fouilland
Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead
Thank you, Megan and good morning, everyone. I will walk you through our performance for Q4 and 2019, and share our guidance for both Q1 and fiscal year 2020. Revenue was $653 million in Q4 and $2.26 billion for 2019. Revenue ex-TAC, our key metric to monitor the business, declined 1% at constant currency to $266 million in Q4, and grew 0.3% at constant currency in 2019, a touch above our guidance to $947 million. Our Q4 performance, better than expected, was driven by a growing business with new clients in the mid-market, offset by a slight decline in our existing client business, despite a strong holiday season across regions and continued adoption of our new solutions among clients. Currency changes in Q4 cost us over $2 million versus prior year and provided a tailwind of about $1 million compared to our guidance assumptions. This translated into a $4 million overachievement above the high-end of our Revenue ex-TAC guidance for Q4. Q4 Revenue ex-TAC margin improved 20 basis points to 41%, in line with our expectations. Looking now at some of our operating highlights for Q4: Our business grew 7% globally during the so-called Cyber six days around Black Friday. Our new solutions grew 44% to 16% of our total business, including our Consideration solutions growing more than 5x on web and in the 50’s on app. Retail Media grew in the low 20’s with continued strong triple-digit growth of our transactional-SaaS model. On a full-year basis, this means our new solutions altogether grew 54% to 12% of the business. Our retargeting product continued to decline slightly, in the upper-mid single digit range, in particular with large customers. While impacted by the retargeting softness, our same-client Revenue ex-TAC declined 3% at constant currency but improved slightly compared to the minus 4% in Q3. We added 280 net new clients, ending the quarter with more than 20,200 clients globally, a 4% increase year-over-year, while maintaining high retention at 90% for all solutions. And from a supply standpoint, more than 4,500 direct publishers are now connected to one of our Criteo Direct Bidders on Web and App, including RetailMeNot, SevenOne Media and eBay Kleinanzeigen in Germany. Turning to our Q4 regional performance, Revenue ex-TAC in the Americas declined 3% at constant currency. While we had a solid holiday season as expected, good performance in Consideration and Retail Media, and continued traction in midmarket, our business with large customers remained soft. However, excluding the impact of a large customer loss in early 2019 and the anniversary of the Manage acquisition, Revenue ex-TAC in the U.S. grew 1% in Q4 and 2% in 2019. EMEA Revenue ex-TAC grew 1% at constant currency, in line with Q3 and our expectations. Once again, we had a strong Black Friday performance in many European markets. Midmarket continued to grow double-digit across the region and we saw marked improvement in our large customer business in particularly in Germany, France and the UK. And APAC Revenue ex-TAC declined 2% at constant currency, also in line with Q3, driven by softness in our Japanese large client business, offsetting very strong performance in Korea and double-digit growth in mid-market across the region. Shifting to expenses. Other cost of revenue decreased 19% in Q4, largely driven by a $10 million positive impact from the longer useful life of our servers, offset by the provision for French digital tax. Non-GAAP other cost of revenue increased 2% in Q4. In 2019, other cost of revenue declined 11%, due to the lower depreciation and amortization on our hosting equipment throughout the year, but grew 13% on a non-GAAP basis. Operating expenses increased 3% in Q4 and were flat in 2019, driven by our strong focus on disciplined expense management and lower equity award compensation expense. In Q4, we incurred about $11 million of restructuring costs, largely related to the decision to close our R&D center in Palo Alto, including $6 million people-related and $9 million facilities-related costs, offset by $5 million forfeitures of equity award compensation expenses. On a non-GAAP basis, which excludes restructuring, operating expenses decreased 7% in Q4 and 1% in 2019, in line with our plans. We expect our restructuring measures taken in 2019 to generate non-GAAP savings of $21 million per annum in 2020 and beyond. Headcount-related expenses represented 66% of GAAP OpEx in Q4, down 6 points, and 72% in 2019. We ended 2019 with over 2,750 employees, flat year-over-year and down 1% sequentially. Looking at non-GAAP expenses by function. R&D OpEx decreased 17% in Q4 to 11% of Revenue ex-TAC, driven by an increase in our research tax credit and despite a 1% increase in headcount to 680 R&D and product engineers. In 2019, non-GAAP R&D expenses decreased 6% to below 15% of Revenue ex-TAC, down 60 basis points. In 2020, we expect to continue to reduce non-GAAP R&D expenses as a percentage of Revenue ex-TAC, in large part due to closing our Palo Alto R&D center. Sales and operations OpEx decreased 7% in Q4 to 29% of Revenue ex-TAC, despite flat headcount of 1,580 employees. Our quota-carrying sales and account strategists declined 3% year-over-year and 3% sequentially to about 710. In 2019, non-GAAP sales and operations expenses decreased 1% to 34% of Revenue ex-TAC. In 2020, we expect non-GAAP sales and operations expenses to slightly increase as a percentage of Revenue ex-TAC, as a result of further increasing automation and delivering efficiency across all our platform and operations teams, as well as from right-sizing our offices worldwide. And G&A expenses increased 3% in Q4 to below 12% of Revenue ex-TAC, with flat headcount at 500 employees. In 2019, non-GAAP G&A expenses increased 5% to 12% of Revenue ex-TAC, up 80 basis points. This was driven by some internal team transfers as well as one-time consulting fees. In 2020, we expect non-GAAP G&A expenses to decrease as a percentage of Revenue ex-TAC, driven largely by efficiency gains and by our office right-sizing program. Overall, we continue to focus on effectively adapting our cost base and will increase our focus on productivity and efficiency gains this year. As a result, we expect non-GAAP expenses across all functions to meaningfully decline in dollar terms in 2020. On the profitability side, adjusted EBITDA increased 6% at constant currency in Q4 to $109 million, or 4% above the high end of our guidance. This translates into a 100% flow through of the top line beat into adjusted EBITDA. This drove our adjusted EBITDA margin to slightly over 41% of Revenue ex-TAC in Q4, or about 300 basis points above the prior-year at constant currency. In 2019, adjusted EBITDA declined 3% at constant currency to $299 million, but drove a margin of 32% of Revenue ex-TAC, well above our 30% guidance for the full year. Depreciation and amortization expenses decreased 1% in Q4, largely driven by the change in the useful life of our servers and despite the accelerated amortization of Manage intangible assets for about $7 million. In 2019, our depreciation and amortization expenses declined 10%. Equity awards compensation expense decreased 11% in Q4 and 27% in 2019, driven by the lower stock price over the period and restructuring-related equity forfeitures. In 2019, our stock-based compensation charge represented just over 5% of Revenue ex-TAC, down 180 basis points versus 2018. Financial expense declined 13% in Q4, largely due to lower losses on foreign exchange. For 2019, financial expense increased 13%. And our effective tax rate was 28% in Q4 and 29% for the full year, slightly below our 30% projected tax rate for 2019. I’m pleased that, as a result of adjusting our tax structure throughout the year, our provisions for income taxes decreased 13% and 14% in Q4 and 2019, respectively. We expect our projected tax rate to be about 30% in 2020. Net income for Q4 decreased 2% to $41 million, driven by a 5% decrease in income from operation, offset by the lower financial and tax expenses. However, in 2019, net income was flat to $96 million. As a result, adjusted diluted EPS increased 29% in Q4 to $1.08 and 7% in 2019 to $2.67. Cash flow from operations decreased 31% in Q4, driven by unfavorable changes in working capital and higher income taxes paid. In 2019, cash flow from operations declined 15%. In parallel, CapEx decreased 61% in Q4, due to meaningful CapEx savings and some timing effects, declined 22% to $98 million in 2019, just above 4% of revenue, or 110 basis points below 2018. In 2020, due to significant savings in data center planning and management, we anticipate our CapEx program to represent just about 3% of revenue, a sizeable reduction from 5% in 2018 and 4% in 2019. Free Cash Flow increased 4% in Q4 and declined 8% in 2019 to $125 million, to 42% of adjusted EBITDA, in line with our four-year historical average. However, excluding the cash impact of restructuring, free cash flow of $132 million for 2019 was almost flat. Finally, cash and cash equivalents increased $54 million throughout the year to $419 million. With respect to the $80 million share buyback program we launched last August, as of the end of 2019, we had purchased approximately 3.2 million shares for a total cash amount of $59 million, at an average price of $18.07 per share. We’re currently still executing on this program and intend to continue until completion. I will now provide our guidance for the first quarter and fiscal year 2020. The following forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of today, February 11, 2020. In Q1 2020, we expect Revenue ex-TAC between $209 million and $212 million on a reported basis. Three reasons make us cautious in Q1. First, we have a strong comparable basis in Q1, partly driven by the strong contribution of a particularly large U.S. client that was lost at the end of Q1 last year. Second, we’re seeing a soft start and, after the strong holiday season, a more pronounced budget softness than usual this year. And third, our large customer business in the U.S. remains soft. As a result, we think we’re going to see Revenue ex-TAC decline by 10% to 9% at constant currency in Q1. We expect year-over-year ForEx changes to be a headwind to reported growth of about $2 million or 100 basis points. With regards to the full year 2020, we’ve taken a realistic view on the business and factored in some realistic assumptions around ad-targeting restrictions and stricter implementation of privacy regulation. We anticipate these headwinds to impact over 7 points of growth in 2020. As a result, we expect Revenue ex-TAC to decline by approximately 10% at constant currency. Using our ForEx assumptions, this means Revenue ex-TAC of approximately $848 million. Compared to 2019, we see ForEx changes having a negative impact of approximately $4 million or about 50 basis points of reported growth. We do not intend to go into the details of our headwind assumptions for the year. On the profitability side, we expect Q1 2020 adjusted EBITDA between $55 million and $58 million. And, for 2020, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 30% of Revenue ex-TAC, as we further increase our focus on productivity and efficiency, and continue to proactively adapt our cost base. As usual, currency assumptions supporting our guidance for both Q1 and fiscal 2020 are included in our earnings release. In closing, I am pleased with our solid Q4 performance and better close to 2019. 2020 will be an important year for us. We strive to maintain strong profitability and cash flows to strengthen our business for the long term. While the team focuses on the initiatives driving the most impact on our long-term top line, our strong financial discipline, profitable model and large cash flexibility will help us capture compelling opportunity faster. With that, we will now take your questions.