Benoit Fouilland
Analyst · Arete Research. Please go ahead
Thank you, JB, and good morning, everyone. As usual, I will walk you through our performance for the quarter and the year and share our guidance for Q1 of fiscal 2019. Revenue was $670 million in Q4 and $2.3 billion for the full year 2018. Revenue ex-TAC the key metric we focus on to monitor the business increased 0.1% at constant currency to $272 million in Q4 and grew 2% at constant currency to $966 million in 2018. The Q4 growth was largely driven by a record holiday season in the U.S. and in Europe and was well-balanced between our existing and new clients despite continued headwinds. In term of currency impact, foreign exchange changes in Q4 cost us $5 million versus last year and about $2 million more than what we had anticipated in our last outlook. This translates into a revenue ex-TAC overachievement of $12 million above the high end of our guidance for Q4. Looking at the Q4 operating highlights, we improved same-client revenue ex-TAC which termed flat compared to a 5% decline in Q3. We grew the number of clients by 7%, roughly in line with expectations while maintaining retention at close to 90% for all our solutions combined. This brings the number of clients to about 19,500. We continue to expect an acceleration in net client addition starting in the second half of 2019 once the onboarding module of our self-service platform is fully rolled out at the end of Q2. Even a full year after their launch Criteo Customer Acquisition and Criteo Audience Match part of our full-funnel marketing solution grew strong triple-digit. Our op revenue ex-TAC continues to see strong traction growing 54% year-over-year. And we now access close to 3,500 large publishers through Criteo Direct Bidder compared with 2,600 in Q3 adding new premium partners like NBC, Mediavine, and The Washington Post. Turning to the Q4 regional performance, in the Americas, revenue ex-TAC grew by 1% at constant currency including 4% in the U.S., driven by a strong holiday season, continued solid performance with our retail media technology platform, and strong app business. EMEA revenue ex-TAC decreased 4% at constant currency improving from Q3 and in line with expectations. We observed an increasing seasonal peak in many European markets resulting in the strong performance around Black Friday. We also saw good improvement in the mid-market and strong traction with Middle East clients offset by softness in the U.K. In line with expectations, GDPR impacted the region revenue ex-TAC by about $5 million. And in APAC, revenue ex-TAC grew 6% at constant currency or eight points above Q3, driven by strength in our large client business in Japan and Korea and hefty improvement in our mid-market operation in the region. Revenue ex-TAC margin declined 50 basis points to 41% in Q4 in line with our previously discussed expectations that margin will normalize at a lower level compared to recent peaks. Revenue ex-TAC margin for 2018, improved one point to 42%, mainly driven by higher margin levels in apps over the first three quarters of the year. Shifting to expenses. Other cost of revenue increased 22% in 2018, reflecting flat headcount over the period and lower equity awards compensation expenses. Headcount related expenses, represented 72% of GAAP OpEx in Q4 and 74% in 2018 both down one point compared to the prior year period. We ended the year with over 2,700 employees, down 1% year-over-year and flat relative to Q3. We have implemented several programs to reduce attrition and accelerate our hiring cadence in particular in our sales organization. On a non-GAAP basis, operating expenses increased 6% to $149 million in Q4 and 2% to $581 million in 2018. On a non-GAAP basis by function, R&D expenses increased 2% in Q4, and 6% in 2018, partially driven by non-people cost and despite the 4% reduction in headcount to over 670 R&D and product engineers. We expect to grow R&D investment by just over 10% in 2019. Sales and operation OpEx increased 1% in Q4 but declined 1% in 2018, driven by 1% decrease in headcount to close to 1,600 in line with expectations. Quota-carrying employees declined 2% year-over-year to more than 730 but grew 4% compared to Q3. We expect sales and operations non-GAAP expenses to grow by around 10% in 2019. And G&A expenses increased 27% in Q4, mostly explained by one-time item and 8% in 2018, driven by a 6% increase in headcount to close to 500 employees, including transfer teams from other groups as well as one-off bonus adjustment and severance expenses in Q4. Moving to profitability. Adjusted EBITDA declined 12% at constant currency to $105 million in Q4, driven by the 6% increase in non-GAAP OpEx of the revenue ex-TAC performance. Our Q4 expenses were in line with expectations, translating into a 100% flow through of the top line bid into adjusted EBITDA. In 2018, adjusted EBITDA was flat at constant currency at $321 million. From a margin standpoint, we saw a 480 basis point decline in the Q4 margin to 38.5% of revenue ex-TAC in line with expectations. And a 30 basis point improvement in our 2018 adjusted EBITDA margin to 33% or one point above the higher end of our full year guidance. Depreciation and amortization expenses increased 25% in Q4 driven by higher hosting equipment depreciation and depreciation of intangible assets due to recent acquisitions. In 2018 depreciation and amortization grew by 14%. Equity award compensation expense decreased 50% in Q4 and 7% in 2018, driven by the stock price performance over the period and equity forfeitures in particular in Q4. Excluding equity grant made in the context of the HookLogic Storetail and Manage acquisitions equity award compensation represented less than 6% of revenue expectation-TAC in 2018 below our original estimates of 6% to 7% provided early 2018. Financial expense declined 21% in Q4 and 47% in 2018 largely driven by discontinuing our hedging transactions on long-term loans to our U.S. and Brazilian entities. Our effective tax rate was 30% in Q4 and 32% in 2018, inline with our 32% projected tax rate for 2018. As a result of the U.S. bid tax on lower net discrete items of both periods provision for income taxes increased 15% and 46% in Q4 and 2018 respectively. Net income for Q4 decreased 20% to $42 million, driven by a 12% decrease in income from operations and the higher tax expense. In 2018 net income decreased only 1% to $96 million as a significant increase in tax of 7% increase in income from operation on the much lower financial expense over the period. As a result, adjusted net income per diluted share decreased 31% to $0.84 in Q4 and 8% in 2018 to $2.49. Cash flows from operations increased 8% to $86 million in Q4 driven by favorable changes in working capital and lower income taxes paid due to timing effect and grew 6% in 2018 to $261 million. Our transformation of adjusted EBITDA into operating cash flow was consistent in both periods reaching 82% and 81% in Q4 and 2018 respectively. CapEx increased 78% in Q4 driven by the phasing effect in the cash out of data center equipment as well as capitalization of development costs for internal IT projects. In 2018 total CapEx was $125 million, growing 16% and representing about 5% of revenues in line with plan. As a result free cash flow decreased 25% to $40 million in Q4 and only 1% in 2018 to $135 million, representing 42% of adjusted EBITDA in line with our three year historical average. Finally, cash and cash equivalents declined $50 million year-over-year to $364 million. This is a net result of our free cash flow generation over the period offset by our acquisition of Storetail and Manage the completion of our $80 million share buyback program and the $21 million negative currency impact on the cash position over the period. In Q4, we completed our $80 million buyback program approved in October and repurchased 3.5 billion shares at an average price of $22.86. Early February, we confirmed approximately 50% of the repurchased shares and plan to limit future dilution to shareholders during the next 50 months approximately by allocating the remaining 50% shares to satisfy equity obligation to employees in lieu of issuing new shares. We are open to considering further opportunity to buy back shares in the future, if conditions are right. In fact, we expect to request an authorization to increase our flexibility to buyback and subsequently cancel shares at our next Annual Shareholder Meeting to be held in Q2. I will now provide our guidance for the first quarter and fiscal year 2019. The following forward-looking statements reflect our expectation as of today February 13, 2019. In Q1 2019, we expect revenue ex-TAC between $233 million and $235 million on a reported basis. This implies constant currency growth of 1% to 2%. We expect year-over-year ForEx changes to be a headwind to reported growth of about $10 million or 400 basis points. With regard to the full year 2019, we expect to grow revenue ex-TAC between 3% and 6% at constant currency. Using our ForEx assumption this means revenue ex-TAC of approximately $981 million to $1010 million. Compared to 2018, we see ForEx changes having a negative impact of approximately $14 million or 150 basis points of reported growth. We expect accelerating momentum throughout the year. While we had previously signaled our ambition to grow double-digit in the second year of 2019 and are clearly confident about the direction of the business our $12 million bid in Q4 creates a more challenging comparison of approximately 500 basis points of Q4 2019 – for Q4 2019. As a result, we think it is prudent to reflect this in our guidance and suggest we will grow in the 6% to 8% range on a year-over-year growth basis at constant currency as we exit 2019. With this commentary, we are not signaling any incremental weakness rather the opposite. We feel good about our momentum and are simply adjusting our outlook to reflect our stronger Q4. On the profitability side, we expect Q1 2019 adjusted EBITDA between $59 million and $61 million impacted by stronger hiring as well as our global internal 2019 kick-off seasons in January. For 2019, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 30% of revenue ex-TAC as we resume higher levels of investment to see a rebound in growth and profitability in 2020. As usual, FX assumptions supporting our guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2019 are included in our earnings release. In closing, I'm pleased with the inflection points in our trajectory and the positive momentum we see for the year on the midterm. We have a large and exciting opportunities ahead of us and we feel we have the right assets to capture them. With that, let me now turn to your questions.