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Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 31, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Ian, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Carpenter Technology CRS Q4 FY '25 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to hand the call over to John Huyette, VP, Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

John Huyette

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Carpenter Technology Earnings Conference Call for the fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter ended June 30, 2025. This call is also being broadcast over the internet along with presentation slides. For those of you listening by phone, you may experience a time delay in slide movement. Speakers on the call today are Tony Thene, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Lain, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Statements made by management during this earnings presentation that are forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Carpenter Technology's most recent SEC filings, including the company's report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2024, and Forms 10-Q for the quarters ended September 30, 2024, December 31, 2024, and March 31, 2025, and the exhibits attached to those filings. Please note that in the following discussion, unless otherwise noted, when management discusses the sales or revenue, that reference excludes surcharge. When referring to operating margins, that is based on adjusted operating income, excluding special items and sales, excluding surcharge. I will now turn the call over to Tony.

Tony R. Thene

Analyst

Thank you, John, and good morning to everyone. I will begin on Slide 4 with a review of our safety performance. We ended fiscal year 2025 with a total case incident rate of 1.4. This is a notable 20% improvement over fiscal year 2024. Although this rate would rank as one of the safest metal manufacturing companies, it is not a rate we accept at Carpenter Technology. As we enter fiscal year 2026, we remain committed to our ultimate goal, a 0 injury workplace, driven by a sharp focus, consistent action and continuous improvement. Let's turn to Slide 5 for an overview of our fourth quarter performance. We continued our earnings momentum with strong execution to close out the fiscal year, delivering the most profitable quarter on record. For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, we generated $151 million in adjusted operating income, a 21% increase over our fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 and a 10% increase over our recent third quarter, which was our previous record for quarterly operating income. The profitability was driven by SAO as the segment continues to expand adjusted operating margins, reaching 30.5% in the quarter, compared to 25.2% a year ago and 29.1% in the prior quarter. You may recall that a year ago, having achieved the 25% adjusted margin milestone in SAO, I said that we had line of sight to 30% margins. And now that we have achieved a 30% milestone, I continue to expect margins to expand further as the major drivers of our growth improvements in productivity, product mix optimization and pricing actions continue to be opportunities for our business. The SAO segment reached a record $167 million of operating income, an increase of 19% year-over-year and 10% sequentially. In addition, with strong earnings and disciplined working capital…

Timothy Lain

Analyst

Thanks, Tony. Good morning, everyone. I'll start on the income statement summary. Starting at the top, sales excluding surcharge decreased 2% year-over-year on 14% lower volumes. Sequentially, sales were up 4% on 5% higher volume. The improving productivity, product mix and pricing are evident in our gross profit, which increased to $213.9 million in the current quarter, up 12% from the same quarter last year. SG&A expenses were $62.5 million in the fourth quarter, essentially flat sequentially and down slightly from the same quarter last year. Adjusted operating income was $151.4 million in the current quarter, which is 21% higher than the $125.2 million in our fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 and up 10% from our recent third quarter. As Tony mentioned earlier, this represents another record quarterly operating income results, breaking the previous record which was just set last quarter. Moving on to our effective tax rate, which was 19.7% in the current quarter. This quarter's effective tax rate was lower than our anticipated rate due to certain discrete tax benefits recorded in the current quarter associated with equity awards. The full fiscal year 2025 effective tax rate was similar to the current quarter. Again, the reason the effective tax rate is lower than the normalized rate is primarily due to discrete tax benefits from the impact of equity awards vesting and stock option exercises during the year. For fiscal year 2026, we expect the effective tax rate to be more in line with our normalized rate of 21% to 23%. Finally, the earnings per diluted share was $2.21 for the quarter. The quarterly results cap off a historic fiscal year 2025. The Carpenter Technology team delivered on our promise of higher profitability driven by actions across the operations to increase productivity, manage the product mix to optimize…

Tony R. Thene

Analyst

Thanks, Tim. The completion of fiscal year 2025 marked a meaningful milestone in the growth of Carpenter Technology. Just over 2 years ago, at our Investor Day in May 2023, we communicated a 4-year goal to reach $460 million to $500 million in operating income, which was double our pre-COVID high. We exceeded that original target in just 2 years. For fiscal year 2025, we generated $525.4 million in adjusted operating income, a 48% increase over fiscal year 2024. Our previous record year is nearly 4x our fiscal year 2023. And we delivered those record profits at a time when the aerospace supply chain slowed, the medical industry went through a destocking and geopolitical issues continued. It is a testament to our focus on execution backed by a strong market position, broad solution portfolio and unique capabilities that we were able to deliver such a strong year. In addition, with the record earnings and disciplined working capital management, we generated $287.5 million in adjusted free cash flow in fiscal year 2025. That is net of our investment in the brownfield expansion project as detailed in our recent investor update event, which will be an accelerant to our growth trajectory starting in fiscal year 2028. And we continue to return cash to shareholders. Over the course of the fiscal year, we executed $101.9 million in share repurchases in addition to $40 million in dividends. Altogether, the results speak for themselves, demonstrating powerful momentum. This is also evident as our market cap increased to over $13 billion, delivering meaningful total shareholder return. But as we communicated in our recent investor update event, we believe this is far from our peak. The same dynamics that drove our success in fiscal year 2025 are only strengthening as we look ahead over the next several…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

Gautam J. Khanna

Analyst

Thanks for the great explanation and good results. Tony and Tim, I was wondering, could you just talk a little bit about lead times if they've evolved at all in jet engine, fasteners and any other markets you think are important indicators? And then broadly, if you could speak to your expectations of pricing through the cycle over the next couple of years? You may have heard ATI announced a little bit of capacity today or I guess they alluded to it a quarter ago. Just do you think there's any impact to the strong pricing power that you guys have had, do you think that will endure?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for your question, Gautam. I'll start with the second one. We said publicly in the past that as we go forward that we see pricing actions continuing to be a tailwind. That's still the case for us. That hasn't changed. The supply-demand gap as you look forward is so large. You remember, we made a very concerted effort to talk specifically about that when we announced our brownfield that said that it would not impact that overall supply/demand. As you see others put in smaller investments, that's not going to have a big impact to the overall supply and demand. In fact, it's helpful. It helps us the entire industry build at a higher rate than we are right now. So I think those are complementary more investments. And I think they are welcomed in the industry. So I don't see any issue with that going forward. The activity we just had in Paris with some of the contracts would substantiate that, that we don't see any change to our position when it comes to pricing actions. That's number one. Number two, the first part of your question at lead times, they remain extended. We use jet engines as the proxy for overall lead times, and they remain extended. And I would assume that they'll stay that. I think going forward, quite frankly, Gautam, you're going to see even more tightness than you see now, right? Because you've got Boeing making good progress right now. That's a major positive. But you still have a subsection of the overall supply chain that was tied very tightly to Boeing and maybe specifically the 737. So in their mind, they're probably saying we're holding more inventory than what we'd like. But I think over the next couple of quarters, Gautam, you're going to see that turn dramatically. And any of that inventory will be used very, very quickly. On the other hand, you have customers that are broader in their offerings, I mean by more outlets than the 737. We see them pulling pretty aggressively on us right now. So I think you had a very good point right now where you see Boeing producing well, very consistent. And over the next couple of quarters, I believe it's going to continue to get tighter. So lead times are going to stay extended. Hopefully, that helps answer your question.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

Scott Deuschle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Tony, did you approach this initial 2026 EBIT guide with a similar level of conservatism as you initially approached 2025 guide with?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Scott, that's a good question. At a high level, of course, we take a look at what we see internally. And when we put a number out there, we want to make sure that we can hit it. So we are not overexposed on that number. We're not -- that number doesn't include actions that we don't have a line of sight to being able to accomplish. Now there's a lot of hard work, as I know you appreciate, to get to that number. And obviously, the market is a bit more defined, if you will, then back in May of 2023, a lot of things have happened since then. But I think it's fair to say that we take these targets very seriously. We know people rely on them. And in all cases, we have line of sight that we're going to be able to achieve that.

Scott Blumenthal

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

And Tony, are you getting orders today that support a reacceleration in Aerospace and Defense volumes within the next few quarters? Or maybe just having conversations to that effect that give you confidence and an acceleration of volumes in that specific end market?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Yes, Scott, so maybe I'll elaborate a little bit further. It's kind of the point I was making there to Gautam, if you take a look at aerospace, defense, if you're on the defense side, that is very aggressive. So the polls on the defense side is very aggressive. And I think on the aerospace side, Scott, there are really 2 sub groups inside of that, right? And that's -- and I think that's a real distinction. And again, I'm talking about nickel billet in aerospace. I'm not talking about titanium because I don't play in the titanium aerospace space other than my titanium fasteners. And I think the dynamics between nickel and titanium are significantly different. So I just want to be clear, I'm specifically talking about obviously, nickel the area that we play in. So on nickel aerospace, there's really 2 camps. One, there is, for sure, this camp that has been -- that is very tied to Boeing and the 737. And it wasn't that long ago that they were building 2 or 3 quarters ago, when I say not long ago, building inventory for this ramp and then you had the issues with Boeing, obviously. So they might be holding a little bit more than they would like. Certainly our discussions with them or they're looking for that next level of confidence. I've said this before we have worked with those customers. We have not forced material on them. We don't think that's the way to do it. So we've been very proactive with them and helping them work through that. But seeing what -- talking to them recently, the announcement out of Boeing about the rates that they're hitting and where they see themselves going in the next 2 quarters, let's say, by the fall, I think, is how they phrased it. That's very positive for them. And I think if they see just a little bit more of that, Scott, you'll see that ordering come back from them very quickly, right? And I think probably in 2 quarters, you might even say urgently. Now the other side of that, the other subgroup that is -- has content, certainly on the 737, but that's not the only outlet they have. We've seen them come back more aggressively here over the last couple of months. I mean our bookings are higher sequentially than they were last quarter. So we see that coming back. I mean, bookings were up 17% to 18% sequentially. So to answer your question, that's the number, right? That tells you that, yes, you see that type of improvement. So I think this is all very positive. I know we're in this point now where, of course, people are looking to see more consistency, I think, specifically from Boeing, but I think they're delivering that. And I believe over the next couple of quarters, you'll see that -- those folks in that subgroup come back pretty strongly.

Scott Deuschle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

That's really helpful. And Tim, sorry if I missed this, but how much were power generation revenues up this quarter year-over-year?

Timothy Lain

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

We didn't say that on the call, Scott, but they were up significantly. Remember, Power Gen is in our energy business and it's Power Gen and oil and gas and makeup energy, but Power Gen was up significantly both year-over-year and sequentially.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan with Benchmark.

Joshua Ward Sullivan

Analyst · Benchmark.

On the defense growth, you noted the urgent requests continue to come in. Clearly, geopolitical operationally, tempos pretty high globally. But is there a way you can frame the urgent request from defense versus the more regular way. And then what is that urgent versus regular order flow look like over kind of the medium term cycle in your opinion?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · Benchmark.

Well, Josh, I think as you know, on the defense side, those orders are historically more uneven than aerospace because they're very program-specific. They depend on budgets being passed by the Congress, they depend on a lot of different schedules. So by definition, they're more uneven, right? Now you've seen some potential clarity when it comes to the defense budget and what that will be. And we've seen those orders increase even more over the last couple of months. I would suspect going forward that defense, based on what's in the new defense budget that lines up very closely to the products that we produce or we supply that you'll see that stay at very elevated order levels.

Joshua Ward Sullivan

Analyst · Benchmark.

And then on the maintenance events coming up, your ability to operate at these historic margins and continue to march higher. You're pretty uncompromising on the maintenance, but it seems to be a very effective tool in managing the system. How -- can you just talk about how that's an advantage for you guys and maybe how that helps the overall long-term margin profile?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · Benchmark.

Well, you can't make any money if the assets don't run and that's pretty clear. Maybe not everybody operates that way. But we do. We've really moved to be much more, over the last couple of years, much more data-driven using AI tools significantly in this area to predict what may happen. I mean predictive maintenance has been around for decades. What hasn't been around for decades is the AI tools that you can use to even dig even much deeper and to understand what type of preventive maintenance outages you want to take. I think secondly, Josh, what's the big deal is that for us, the days of these long-term shutdowns are behind us, right? I mean we're -- we keep our outages shorter, more targeted. I mean that avoids the long ramp-ups like others might have when you have that long period of shutdown. So as you look -- for us over the next couple of quarters, I mean, we have very targeted many outages, if you will, scheduled across melting, remelt, hot working, cold finishing across the entire production flow to keep this thing running at its highest level. I agree with you. I think it is a strategic advantage on how we manage our operations and how we perform preventive maintenance, and it is a focus area for us even going forward to get better.

Joshua Ward Sullivan

Analyst · Benchmark.

And then maybe just one last one. On the power generation side, are you seeing anything where they're using more of your advanced materials, I mean, is there any material change in the IG side? Or is it more a replacement cycle of legacy materials for putting industrial gas turbines?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · Benchmark.

Well, I mean, we operate on the high end, right? So the products that we supply are the alloy is very similar to the -- an aerospace alloys. So we see that being the prominent alloy going forward for us. And Josh, if you don't mind, I hate to disappoint Scott, when he asked the question about Power Gen. As Tim said, it's inside of our oil and gas. Oil and gas was actually down from a quarter-over- quarter, I mean Power Gen was -- year-over-year was over 100% increase. So you see a big a big play there in power generation. That's a real strategic advantage for us because now we're able to command aerospace like margins. It's a product that we know very well, and it really fits well within our overall production flow. So maybe the percent of revenue is small because we're so dominant on aerospace, but it's very strategic to us and a real market growth potential for us going forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bennett Moore with JPMorgan.

Bennett Moore

Analyst · JPMorgan.

And congrats on a record year. How should we think about further mix gains into fiscal year '26? More specifically, if you can maintain the rate of A&D mix growth seen over the past 12 to 18 months, I would think this would be somewhat a function of yield improvements and leveraging latent capacity? If you could comment on that, too, please?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Well, make sure come back with a follow-up if I don't hit your question on the mark. I mean, as we go forward, certainly, we see ourselves predominantly as an aerospace company. That's going to be where we -- that our primary focus or one of our primary focuses are going to be. So we see that continuing to increase. I mean, aerospace demand is going to be significantly higher over the next couple of years than it is right now. I mean, that doesn't take a lot to figure that out when you just look at where the OEMs are building today and where they want to be building 2 years from now. So we see our aerospace business continuing to grow. At the same time, medical is a market that is very strong for us as well, where you get aerospace margins and, in some cases, higher than aerospace margins. And I think this is really important, right? If you look at our medical business, Bennett, back in FY '19, prior to COVID, our medical sales are 70% higher than they were then. So this is a market that we've really expanded and we've been able to expand because we're an innovator. This market demands that you are an innovator. This market demands that you invent new alloys to help solve the customers' problems. That's why I mentioned in my prepared remarks, this new alloy around nickel sensitivity. That's a major issue in the medical market that we were able to step in and solve. So this isn't a market that you can step into and step out of whenever you think you have some open capacity. This is a market that you have to be committed to as an inventor and an innovator and a solver of your customers' problems. So that's the way we see it. So that's going to be a continued driver for us. And then we just talked about power generation. I mean in many ways, I think we can push our power generation sales as high as we want. I mean the demand right now seems really unlimited, and the exchanges we have with those customers are extremely positive. So if you take those 3 pieces right there, I mean, you've got aerospace over 60%. You add in medical and power generation, you get over 80%. So it's a very, very strong mix, Bennett, that I see us maybe to specifically answer your question, continuing to strengthen or rich in that mix over the coming years.

Bennett Moore

Analyst · JPMorgan.

And then I guess, coming to shipments. I know you mentioned the preventive maintenance in 1Q think earnings back half weighted. Are you still -- or is it fair to assume SAO volumes could trend higher this year, maybe more back half weighted?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I think what we have to do, Bennett, when you talk about volumes, I think the days of looking at overall volumes are going, right? We're just too complex. It's too sophisticated. You need to look specifically at aerospace volumes medical volumes. Those I will answer yes to some of our other markets that have traditionally been higher volume, lower profit then you're not going to see the same emphasis there. So going forward, let's talk about volumes by market, and I think we'll have a much clearer picture. And that's what we're trying to do. We're trying to drive profitability, not volume.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andre Madrid with BTIG.

Andre Madrid

Analyst · BTIG.

I wanted to ask a bit more pointedly. I don't mean to beat a dead horse here, but it kind of ties into your conversation about the 2 separate camps that we're seeing right now. And I guess when you look at it, if I can ask more pointedly, what are you seeing around airframe demand? And are you seeing significant destocking?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · BTIG.

Well, I mean, in this whole environment, we just produced record quarters. So I mean this is not impacting our ability to produce these types of earnings. My point is that you have some customers -- this should be obvious by the way. I mean that have more inventory than they like because they're very tied to 737. That shouldn't be new news right? That's very common. And like I said, I think those -- that inventory will burn off very quickly. But that's not the overall driver to where we're at and what we are able to produce as far as earnings. So the fact that some of those customers are ordering -- are holding back a little bit on orders that didn't impact our quarter. And I don't see it -- it's not going to impact the guidance that we just gave. So I think that's a point in time that should be very obvious to everyone that will -- with Boeing's continued success be a thing in the past very quickly.

Andre Madrid

Analyst · BTIG.

Got it. Got it. And then Medical, obviously, continued momentum there, but the story seems a bit different at one of your peers. They highlighted some inventory destocking there as well, some trade headwinds, some pricing pressure. Are you seeing any of that? I mean I know the comp is...

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · BTIG.

Yes. No. I mean -- listen, I think not everything is the same, right? Just because you're in the medical market, doesn't mean that you're competing at the same areas. I mean we compete at the very high end of the medical market, orthopedics, cardiology, dental. And I said before, this is really if you're going to jump in and out of the market, yes, you probably have those types of headwinds. But if you're us, we're a long-term player, solving these types of highly complex problems, we just don't see -- we don't see that. So we have a different path to market maybe than others. And for us, that's a very high and very profitable, very strong market today and it's going to get stronger for us in the future. So not a comparison to what you just stated.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Philip Ross Gibbs

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

So Tony, as I look out to the guidance for fiscal '26, is there a way to sort of tether out how much you think within that upside relative to this year is going to be pricing and mix related versus just volume leverage?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Well, I will tell you the specifics on that, Phil, but all 3 of those are going to be drivers for us going forward. We believe all 3 of those will take a next step up.

Philip Ross Gibbs

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Appreciate that. And then I don't know if you mentioned it earlier, but did you provide your jet engine sales growth either sequentially or year-over-year?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Yes, I'll do that for you, sir. Aero Engines, plus 5% sequentially and plus 3% year-over-year. So good quarter for us there in that area.

Philip Ross Gibbs

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

And then lastly, Big Beautiful Bill within your fiscal '26 free cash flow guidance. Is there any cash tax benefit from accelerated depreciation within that outlook?

Timothy Lain

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Phil, this is Tim. I mean short answer is no. We didn't assume that in this -- in the guidance we just gave. We're working through the impacts as most companies are. You said accelerated depreciation. There's some -- the other provision that benefits us is the potential to expense R&D, which should have a positive impact on our cash taxes. So more to come on that. We'll talk about that in Q1, but it should be a net positive to us and not included in the guidance we just gave.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andre Madrid with BTIG.

Andre Madrid

Analyst · BTIG.

Sorry, I just had a follow-up as well. You mentioned completing some LTAs in Paris. I mean are you seeing any sizable change to your LTA mix?

Tony R. Thene

Analyst · BTIG.

Sizable change? No, not a sizable change. I mean these LTAs primarily are re-upping of existing prior LTA. So it's just the next level. There's been a couple of customers maybe that we signed new LTAs with, but the majority is the renewal of the existing LTAs.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the call back over to John Huyette for some closing remarks.

John Huyette

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today for our fiscal year 2025 fourth quarter conference call. Have a great rest of your day.