William A. Wulfsohn
Analyst · Buckingham Research Group
Thank you, Gary. Moving to page 15, I'd like to highlight some strategic developments, which we believe will enhance our growth. As previously mentioned, Athens is on budget and on schedule for our commercial start-up within 6 months. The radial press is in place. We are beginning to circulate the 46,000 gallons of hydraulic fluid that will drive the unit. The 2 manipulators for the press are now on-site, and we've even begin to fire up several of the furnaces. By the way, when we say start-up, we mean the target date for our first commercial sale, not when we will turn the equipment on. Cold start has already begun, and we expect to be moving hot metal within the next several months. We've often referred to Athens as a lean operation. From a cost-burden perspective, the ongoing Athens overhead rate, excluding depreciation, is already fully reflected in our Q1 numbers. So you won't hear us talk about incremental overhead from Athens impacting our results going forward. As stated in our last call, you will hear us clarify onetime start-up cost, which we expect will total approximately $8 million to $10 million. We will share these numbers with you as they are incurred since they are onetime in nature. In Q1, these expenses were approximately $600,000 and are likely to ramp up in Q2 as we begin our start-up activities. Enthusiasm for this facility is high. Senior leaders from key customers representing roughly 20% of our aerospace sales have already toured the facility. Their response has been extremely positive. Specific written comments resulting from this business -- or from these visits show their excitement. One customer referred to the project as a "game changer within our industry". Another noted that the facility will create "new ways to work with Carpenter to take advantage of the unique conversion processing." Perhaps most importantly, a senior leader from a third customer stated that "on the validation of proven -- approval schedule for the facility, I would really like a committed time plan so our technical teams can plan resources accordingly, and we can drive the teams to deliver against committed milestones." Our new capacity is also enabling Carpenter to begin in-sourcing approximately 8,000 tons of feedstock previously outsourced. Bringing these tons in will not impact revenue but will lower cost through increased absorption and enable Athens to get to steady-state operations more quickly. In addition, the new capacity is giving us the headroom to go after new, strategically attractive markets, such as the markets for corrosion-resistant materials and the CPI market. These segments are attractive and use our types of materials. However in the past, we could not support them due to our capacity limitations. Several new contracts in these markets have already been signed. Moving to the second column. As previously announced, we are entering the super alloy powder market and have commissioned the construction of a new facility to be built on our Athens campus. To gain fuel efficiency, aero manufacturers are designing engines to operate at higher temperatures. Higher temperatures can be achieved using super alloy powder parts. As a result, we anticipate this trend will lead to a tripling of super alloy powder usage over the next 5 years. Thus, it was essential that we take this strategic action. We appreciate the support and confidence Pratt & Whitney has shown in Carpenter by licensing us their technology and entering into a long-term supply agreement. You will recall that we often mentioned that Athens will enable Carpenter to expand operations quickly and efficiency. In the case of this new super alloy powder facility, we will use less than 1/3 of a preexisting building on the Athens site to house our new operations. The use of this existing infrastructure will reduce construction times by roughly 6 months and capital costs by approximately $10 million. Moving to the third column. I want to update you on the status of our 1-year development agreement that we entered into with U.S. Steel earlier this year. The purpose of this agreement was to determine if our proprietary Temper Tough alloy could be used as a large-scale steel solution to lightweight automobile frame components, such as rocker panels. We are extremely excited about the technical gains we have made with Temper Tough. We have shown that Temper Tough has the strength required to be used for safety supports. We have also demonstrated that Temper Tough has the targeted ductility and elongation to be warm or cold formed using existing equipment in the auto industry today. We believe Temper Tough can have a large and positive impact in the lightweighting of vehicles, which is crucial to meeting increasing fuel standards. We also believe the initial market in North America will be large, well beyond what we can produce in our mills. Therefore, we expect that Carpenter will ultimately license this technology to an automotive flat-roll producer. Now moving to Page 16. We have reviewed our Q1 results extensively. So to wrap up, I will summarize by reemphasizing that I believe the Carpenter team executed very well in a difficult environment. Looking forward, we expect that Q2 will be our most difficult quarter. From an operating viewpoint, we will melt fewer tons. In addition, while volume appears stable, our sales mix will remain weak. In this context, we are very actively managing our costs. Last year, we saw a $0.12 per share earnings reduction from Q1 to Q2. It's likely we will see roughly this level of contraction this year. Results could be up or down from this estimate, depending upon the timing and length of customer holiday shutdowns. It's too early to get a good read as to whether customers will extend the holiday shutdowns or use this period to get a jump-start on 2014. During Q2, we will complete the majority of the remaining Athens construction. By the end of Q2, we expect to have completed over 80% of the Athens project spend. The remaining 20% will be spent over the following 18 months. Thus, while we expect Q2 cash flow to be negative, we expect to become a strong cash flow generator by the end of this fiscal year. Continuing with our discussion on the back half of our fiscal year, we believe we will begin benefiting from increasing demand. When we look at order activity, each month, from October 2012 until April 2013, saw a decrease in orders versus the same month in the prior year. However, since May, each month has shown a year-over-year order increase. SAO's backlog in tons has stabilized. That is leading us to believe that demand recovery will occur next calendar year, as we have previously communicated. We also believe that we will begin to benefit from our numerous strategic actions. More specifically, the opening of Athens will give us the needed capacity to grow our SAO sales, the opening of our new Amega West San Antonio facility will position us to better serve the Eagle Ford Shale field and the commissioning of new Dynamet wirelines will enable us to support growing demand for titanium aerospace fasteners. We also believe we will benefit from the upcoming launch of several 2015 North American model vehicle redesigns. As an example, our materials are part of GM's Gen 5 engines fuel delivery systems. We also see an increased use of turbochargers and, with it, increased demand for Carpenter's materials. In summary, we believe market fundamentals dictate a demand recovery. The exact timing of this recovery is difficult to assess due to short lead times and overall economic uncertainty. That said, we remain optimistic that we will see improved demand and, with it, improved profit performance in the second half of our fiscal year. But we remain committed to our previously communicated 10-10-10 program. Essentially, we are targeting 10,000 tons of volume gains, with an average margin per pound increase of at least $0.10 while driving positive cash flow after completing the bulk of Athens construction later this quarter. To be clear, we will not drive volume with price. When I see how our team has responded to the current environment, I'm excited to see what we can deliver when our markets improve. With a longer view, we remain bullish on our business. We have a clear strategy, a solid team and proven execution skills. Our markets are growing, and the need for our type of materials is expanding. Finally, given our anticipated cash flow and our low level of debt, we believe we will have a great amount of financial flexibility to further enhance shareholder value. With that, I will turn the call over to the operator, so we can take your questions.