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Ceragon Networks Ltd. (CRNT)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 2, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day everyone. Welcome to the Ceragon Networks Limited Third Quarter Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and will be hosted by Mr. Ira Palti, President and CEO of Ceragon Networks. Today's call will include statements concerning Ceragon's future prospects that are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks that Ceragon will not achieve the benefits it expects from its expense reduction and profit enhancement programs; the risk that Ceragon’s expectations regarding future revenues and profitability will not materialize; the risk that Ceragon will not comply with the financial or other covenants in its agreements with its lenders; risks associated with doing business in Latin America, including currency export controls and recent economic concerns; risks relating to the concentration of our business in the Asia-Pacific region and in developing nations; the risk of significant expenses in connection with potential contingent tax liability associated with Nera's prior operations or facilities; and other risks and uncertainties detailed from time to time in Ceragon's Annual Report on Form 20-F and Ceragon's other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission; and represents our views only as of the date they are made and should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any subsequent date. We do not assume any obligations to update any forward-looking statements. Ceragon's public filings are available from the Securities and Exchange Commission's website at www.sec.gov or maybe obtained on Ceragon's website at www.ceragon.com. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Ira Palti, President and CEO of Ceragon. Please go ahead, sir.

Ira Palti

President and CEO

Thank you for joining us today. With me on the call is Doron Arazi, our CFO. We continue to make progress to the key business and financial objectives. In Q3 we achieved significantly higher gross margin compared with Q2. We increased net profits, we generated significant positive cash flow and we reduced our debt, even though revenue declined almost 10% sequentially. Lower revenue is a result of our strategy to be very selective and focus on maximizing profitability with each and every deal. In general, we are retaining the profit goals we mentioned on the last call, and we believe they are realistic. However, we also think we will see a bigger trade-off between revenue and gross margin than we thought previously. This shift in both our revenue and gross margin expectations illustrates the important of the approach we are taking deal-by-deal. Our revenue trend isn’t directly correlated to marketable factors. We continue to believe that the overall wireless backhaul market is likely to remain fairly flat, up or down slightly, depending on whether you measure it according to units or dollars. As we discussed on our last call, we are focusing on the best-of-breed segment, which represent about half of the total wireless backhaul market. We are in a better position to take advantage of our strengths, when service providers are willing to invest the on-time and resources to assess backhaul vendors offerings individually and select by who brings the best value to the required solution. By contrast, in bundled deals there is no separate vendor decision for backhaul and the primary sectors are priced in payment terms. As we noted on our last call, even within the best-of-breed portion of the market, there are wide variations between customers. Not every customer that is looking for ultra-high capacity and…

Doron Arazi

CFO

Thank you Ira. Since you have all seen the press release, I’ll just highlight some of the significant items. Our third quarter revenues of 85.4 million represented a 10% sequential decrease from Q2. The geographic breakdown of Q3 revenue appears in the press release. There were no major shift in geography in Q3. We had one above 10% customer in the quarter, a large operator in India that is an outstanding customer. A year ago we set a target of reaching 27% margin by Q4 of 2015. We not only exceeded that target level in Q2, but we substantially improved gross margin again in Q3 reporting 32.4%. As Ira said we believe we can sustain this level and even improve a little more from this level in 2016. Also we should continue to note that we expect some fluctuations from quarter-to-quarter based on the exact mix of revenues we recognized during the period. Non-GAAP results in Q3 excluded $2.3 million of the usual items, stock based compensation, amortization of intangible assets and non-cash tax adjustments. In Q3, we continued to maintain tight control of our operating expenses which were $20.2 million. Given the booking level and outlook, we are going to focus on keeping operating expenses in the $20 million to $21 million range. With the improvement in gross margin, coupled with lower OpEx, we continue to improve our operating results reporting a non-GAAP operating profit of $7.5 million. Our non-GAAP operating margin of 8.8% again exceeds our original goal of reaching a mid-single digit non-GAAP operating margin by the end of the year. Non-GAAP financial expenses were again down slightly from Q2 to $3 million. The decrease was mainly due to lower exchange related expenses than in Q2 partially offset by an increase in fees for discounting receivables of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from James Kisne with Jefferies LLC. Please go ahead.

James Kisne - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies LLC. Please go ahead

I guess I wanted to clarify the gross margin result in the Q3, nice gross margin by the way. Could you just give a bit more color on how much of that is a result from perhaps renegotiate pricing versus purely just lower margin business just going away. I just wanted to understand that nuance a little bit. And then also for 2016, I think you said that you would have gross margin, you could be at least as good as this for the year, but it sounds like there’s variability and perhaps you would fall below this level potentially and in individual quarter. I just want to clarify that you weren’t trying to say that this level on Q3 wasn’t absolute for, thanks.

Ira Palti

President and CEO

I’ll start with the deal, we are selecting on a deal-by-deal basis, and we are doing all the things that you have said in different proportion, different regions and different customers. We walked away from some deals with very low margins, which you can see a little of that in the reduction of the revenue level. We also renegotiated some deals in some geographies and changed the terms and conditions for better gross margins and being a little bit more careful in new deals that we are selecting on the table also contributes to the same mix. Together by the way, with activities at the backhand of continual product, cost reduction, operational efficiency and other measures which also contributes to the gross margin mode.

Doron Arazi

CFO

This is Doron. I will just add one comment. Actually looking out to 2016 and obviously before doing the thorough work of annual operational plan, I think that the booking of the last couple of quarters is giving us confidence that the 32.4% that you’ve seen it’s not just a one-time occasion, and it looks like it becomes a trend. And obviously trying to be cautious, we said on the script that we have acquired high confidence that we can sustain our gross margin above 30%. But we also commented that we believe that on average for next year, we can be at the level of the gross margins of Q3 and maybe invest slightly above, and all of that as I said is based on the trend that we have seen in the last two or three quarters.

James Kisne - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies LLC. Please go ahead

Okay, that’s helpful. So just turning to the revenues for a second, if you don’t mind, so you said that your book-to-bill was below one. I mean I don’t know if you could give any more detail there, was it 0.5 or 0.7, like how bad was it and I am just kind of wondering was there any kind of - were there some deals that hit in Q3 that you did not expect to land in Q3 that perhaps you might have expected to land in Q4? I am trying to understand the dynamics around the sequential decline. And I guess sort of relatedly, are you seeing any slowing and if you could give a reason, in any regions specifically other than just were you backed away on deals, is there any kind of softening in the environment reflected in that book-to-bill also. Thanks.

Ira Palti

President and CEO

We see the book-to-bill below 1. It’s not equal to 0.5 bad; it’s mainly because of selecting deals. So it’s causing a little bit of a slowdown. I think I mentioned also on the call a little bit. We see relatively strong environment in the North America region, flat in mainly in the APAC, and in Europe. We see Latin America continuing, while within Latin America we see Brazil weakening because of the local currency. We see Africa weakening at this point, mainly because a competitive environment and one of our larger customers’ in that area which is a multi-country operator is exiting the continent at this point. So while the transition is there, we’ll take time to pick up sales again to the local operators within the region. And we see, by the way India keep on going strong with a caution that we’ve seen India sometimes after rapid deployment at some point drop off drastically for a digestion period of deployment. We do not see a softness I would say globally. It’s all local, sometimes country by country, operator by operator, mixed with decision making processes on our side what we walk in to and what we don’t walk in to. So we can maintain both a healthy profit and margin and which usually works both hand-in-hand with better payment terms and less need for working capital, which also has an effect on our cash flow.

Operator

Operator

Next questions’ from Alex Henderson with Needham. Please go ahead. Alex Henderson - Needham & Company: So when I look at the numbers on the topline I actually was not all that surprised that revenue was weak considering the macro conditions. If you were to parse between the pricing issues that you’re addressing and the discipline that you’re bringing to the gross margin and the broad macro conditions in emerging markets where raw material pricing has been under such pressure causing a lot currency pressure. How would you parse between those two factors in the weakness in the revenues?

Ira Palti

President and CEO

Without bidder I would say detailed analysis of both half and half, actually and that’s without doing it better, that’s more of a gut feeling in between. I know differences in different geographies, but if I need to mix them up, it’s about those numbers. Alex Henderson - Needham & Company: So when we’re looking at the first quarter of 2016, I know you don’t give guidance that far out. But historically that’s been a sequential declined quarter fairly steeply from the fourth quarter. Based on the change in the way you’re addressing business, does that happen going forward or alternatively is the price dynamic the dominant factor and therefore less seasonality in that quarter than normal.

Doron Arazi

CFO

I don’t think that the seasonality will have a major impact. I think the way we pick and choose the deals even if it’s on an account of keeping statistically the booking trend in a nice trajectory, this is the thing that is probably going to count more. Adding to Ira’s comment about your original question, we know that we had an impact just for the fact that some of the business is in local currencies, and that was quantified and I would say that it was definitely higher than $1 million this quarter. Obviously some of the delays we see in projects that were either canceled or delayed is coming from the macro economy, and on that we definitely do not have any control, and this is why it’s hard to quantify this piece and say okay, we probably lost 5 million or 3 million or 6 million. Alex Henderson - Needham & Company: Given your comments last quarter that you expected essentially flat revenues in ’16 based on the change in the pricing structure and you’re now down considerably first half to second half, should we still be anticipating flat for the year or should we be putting a decrement down for ’16 based on the fact that your current run rate looks like it’s more on the 82 to 85 range quarterly, and use that as sort of the base line.

Doron Arazi

CFO

At this point our expectation is that there will continue to be a trend off between gross margins and topline and basically that drives to a conclusion that we expect lower revenue levels that then what is out in the market up until now. But I want to emphasize that this is a trade-off. And to the previous question, the answer is, the trade-off is going to be in the gross margins that we see much better gross margins. Alex Henderson - Needham & Company: Right. So just to answer the question though, the question was first half versus second. So I assume that the $80 million to $85 million run rate we’re talking about here in the back half of the year is the reasonable level of run rate in the first half and second half of next year. We shouldn’t be expecting any meaningful change in that, correct? We are not going to see another down graph to 10%-15% in ’16 I assume on the revenues?

Doron Arazi

CFO

Obviously things may fluctuate between quarter-to-quarter, and as we said, we are not guiding for a specific topline. So I will just say that we need to continue following cautiously on the trends. Definitely the numbers that we have seen in the first half of 2015 are not the numbers we are planning for next year. Alex Henderson - Needham & Company: One last question, actually two. One data point I forgot to ask, headcount at the end of the quarter and then one last question. So you made the comment about rationalization of vendors in the space, doesn’t really seem like anything is changing on that front. Is there some reason why you think that that might occur or is there any perception that there’s going to be a change in the structure of the market, because otherwise looking for 5G and rationalization of vendors is a long period?

Doron Arazi

CFO

We talked about long period of yes both trends are longer term type of activities. I think the market is getting in to a position where things will start to happen. I think also you see it from the top, you see the Alcatel - Nokia merger will start taking place in the beginning of the year. So we believe that both were (inaudible) and we started seeing also some of the 4G, 5G stuff starting to rollout. We have a lot of 5G discussion with people. People are pushing in that direction. It’s not a tomorrow type of thing, but think it will drive our growth a little bit further down that road.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from George Iwanyc with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

George Iwanyc - Oppenheimer

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

Ira can you give us a sense, just following on the same line of questions; the type of visibility you have in to 2015, when you look at on a regional by regional basis you talked about how India might change quickly. Do you have a deal flow that supports a one quarter view, the six to nine month view, how far out does it go?

Ira Palti

President and CEO

We work in merely, I would say, three or two and a half [type] out there. Nothing has changed from our visibility perspective of the way we work. We have immediate deal flow which is usually for the next three months, which we see on the table which is really a thing that we negotiate already both terms and probably also the terms and exactly the content and stuff. Further out probably for another four to five months its deals that we are involved in, and further down than that almost a year out, we have customer relations and contacts that we have with the customers, we note what their plans are. Let’s remember that at this point in time from our perspective, we are planning the budget for next year, and using the rolling there I don’t see at this point any change in that type of visibility. Sometimes the visibility changes because of macroeconomics and stuff which is happening sometimes quite rapidly. At this point, I think that most of the, what we see around the macro economy we are starting to factor in to what we see further down the world.

George Iwanyc - Oppenheimer

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

And then when you look within each of the regions, is the gross margin that you saw on this past quarter reflective of what you think is sustainable on those regions. Is India contributing at the level that you expected to hold at, or do you still see room for improvement within any particular region?

Ira Palti

President and CEO

As I think Doron indicated, we’ll probably stay around the number we achieved in this quarter, which means under the current mix that we have, we believe that the gross margin profile in the different regions will stay about the same of where we are. I don’t see at this point significant changes neither by the way to the high upside and with outside within those profiles within their different regions. We do overtime expect by the way a little bit of shift geographies, which will probably further improve the gross margin slowly. And we said that I think on the call in the vision, we are going up to some - we see promising niche market within the vertical spaces which we go after, which might also have a little bit of an effect.

George Iwanyc - Oppenheimer

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

And then last regional question, when you look at North America, I hear you seemed fairly positive about the order opportunities there. But that’s not including any new business from the one large carrier so what’s giving you the confidence, what’s your existing business there?

Ira Palti

President and CEO

What’s given us the confidence is talks with those customers who are in a very good position and are continuing to deploy based on their plans and their plans in to next year.

George Iwanyc - Oppenheimer

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

Doron, when you look at [FX] are there any factors that we should be aware of?

Doron Arazi

CFO

No, I think there’s a good very tight control over OpEx and there is a bit behind in terms of some of recruitment in some areas. But as I said, it looks like we can keep our OpEx at the level of $20 million to $21 million without affecting the business and the different initiatives that we have within the organization. So I feel that this level of OpEx is something that we can retain.

George Iwanyc - Oppenheimer

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

Okay, so when we look at R&D, sales and marketing, the levels that we’re looking at right now are kind of the ones that we should look to see them settled on that.

Doron Arazi

CFO

Yeah more or less, there could be some shift between G&A to R&D or G&A to sales and marketing as you move along, but generally speaking if we look at the bottom line of the total OpEx it’s going to be in the range of 20 to 21.

George Iwanyc - Oppenheimer

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead

And just my last question on the currency side, are you seeing any unusual headwinds in any other regions?

Doron Arazi

CFO

Obviously we have big challenges especially in Latin America, in particular Brazil, and basically after a huge decline in the last quarter, we hope for some rebound. But this is something that we don’t have too much control, except for trying to be more sophisticated in the future in the way we handle our exposures.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And Mr. Palti, we have no questions in queue.

Ira Palti

President and CEO

Okay. I’d like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. If you have further questions or any clarifications, both myself and Doron are available for direct questions. And we would like, we would be glad to elaborate a little bit more on the details on one-on-one calls both on the phone and face-to-face over the next few weeks. Thank you very much for joining us this morning and have a good day.