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Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 26, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Q4 2017 Comstock Resources, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call maybe recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mr. Jay Allison, CEO. Sir, you may begin.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Alright. And again, thank you Crystal and thank you for everyone who is participating this morning on our fourth quarter and year end conference call for 2017. Welcome to the Comstock Resources’ fourth quarter 2017 financial and operating results conference call. You can view a slide presentation during or after this call by going to our website at www.comstockresources.com and downloading the quarterly results presentations. There you will find a presentation titled Fourth Quarter 2017 Results. I am Jay Allison, Chief Executive Officer of Comstock and with me is Roland Burns, our President and Chief Financial Officer and Dan Harrison, our Vice President of Operations. During this call, we will discuss our fourth quarter and full year operating and financial results as well as discuss our outlook for 2018. If you turn over to Slide 2, please refer to Slide 2 and our presentation and note that our discussions today will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of securities laws. While we believe the expectations of such statements to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Slide 3, our 2017 achievements. It was 3 years ago this month that we announced a business plan to develop our Haynesville, Bossier acreage. During those 3 years, we have drilled approximately 50 gross or 33 net Haynesville, Bossier wells. We have increased our drill site locations. We have brought in an incredible JV partner with USG. We have expanded our Tier 1 footprint and have a deep inventory of locations that have very attractive of ours at current natural gas prices. I would note that it has been a very long journey, but our results have exceeded our expectations every year and we continue to get stronger quarterly. As we announced in the third quarter…

Roland Burns

Analyst

Thanks Jay. On Slide 4, we showed the growth in our natural gas production being generated by our Haynesville Shale drilling program. In the fourth quarter our natural gas production averaged 241 million per day, up 90% from pro forma 2016 fourth quarter production and was also up 11% from the third quarter of 2017. With the drilling program in 2018 similar to 2017’s program, we estimate that 2018’s natural gas production should average between 250 million to 270 million today. On Slide 5, we outlined the additions to our hedge position since we last reported. We had 99 million per day of our natural gas production hedged in the fourth quarter at $3.38 per Mcf. For the first quarter of this year, we have 42 million a day hedged at $3.26. And for the remainder of 2018, we have 60 million a day hedged at $3. We do plan to add more hedges to get closer to our 60% goal of production. Slide 6 recaps what production we had to shut-in for the quarter. The fourth quarter was fairly quiet and our shut-in gas production only average 4.5 million per day. And the shut-ins were mostly due to necessary shut-ins for offset frac activity either for our operations or for activities that offset operators. Our oil production in the fourth quarter was more negatively impacted by shut-ins as 131 barrels per day were shut-in. These shut-ins were all due to offset frac activities from nearby operators as activity in the Eagle Ford has picked up. Slide 7 shows our producing costs continue to improve quarter-over-quarter as our lower cost Haynesville Shale property production continues to grow up. Operating costs have improved in the fourth quarter to $0.68 per Mcfe as compared to $1.48 all the way back in 2014…

Dan Harrison

Analyst

Hey. Thanks Ronald and good morning out there and everyone. I will start off here on Slide 14 which you have all seen before highlights our 68,000 net acres in the Haynesville and in the mid-Bossier Shale play in North Louisiana and East Texas. We operate most of the net acreage position. We had an average working interest of 79% across the 88,000 total acres we have an interest in. The average net revenue interest across our acreage is 81%. In 2017, we drilled the total of 29 Haynesville or mid-Bossier Wells on our acreage were 15.7 net to our interest. By continuing with our existing three rig programs, we tentatively plan to drill a similar number of wells on our acreage this year. Flip over to next slide. On Slide 15, you will see an updated overview of our horizontal well inventory. In 2017, our average operated lateral length completion was 7,900 feet. In 2018, we expect this number to increase to an average length of 8,400 feet or 6% increase over 2017 levels. The longer laterals coupled with pad drilling and our latest generation high intensity frac designs continue to deliver strong returns. The location of the Haynesville near Henry Hub combined with our competitive gathering and treating contracts gives us a premium natural gas market for our Haynesville production. We are currently working towards additional choice with offset operators to further enhance our inventory of long laterals. At this time our inventory of 10,000 foot laterals now stands at 161 in the Haynesville and 182 in the Bossier. Our 7,500 foot lateral inventory stands at 95 in the Haynesville and 88 in the Bossier. And our single section 4,500 foot lateral inventory is comprised of 198 in the Haynesville and 118 in the Bossier. In total this…

Jay Allison

Analyst

Alright, Dan. I love Slide 23. Thank you for your presentation, Roland. Thanks for the excellent reports. For the quarter and the full year 2017, if we go to Slide 24, which is our 2018 outlook, our high return Haynesville shale assets continue to provide us the means of profitable growth production and cash flow in 2018. Our enhanced completion design as Dan has mentioned has transformed the Haynesville shale into one of North America’s highest return natural gas basis and our acreage position gives us over 800 future drilling locations. Our drilling activity planned for the year will allow us to grow natural gas production by 30%. The production increase will cause our EBITDAX and cash flow to continue to grow. Our already low cost structure has continued to improve with further growth in our Haynesville shale production. In 2017, we were able to reduce our lifting cost per Mcfe by 31% and our DD&A per Mcfe has improved by 32% as compared to 2016. Our balance sheet will continue to improve as we grow our cash flow and EBITDAX. The potential sale of our Eagle Ford Shale assets combined with growth in EBITDAX should support our effort to refinance our secured debt this year. For the rest of the call, we will take questions from the analysts through [indiscernible] company. I would add – all that we would like to do we cannot discuss that Eagle Ford Shale’s process in anymore detail, but we will inform our stakeholders when we have entered into a contract. So with that, Crystal, we will turn it over to you again.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Ron Mills from Johnson Rice & Company. Your line is open.

Ron Mills

Analyst

Good morning. First question would be on Caddo Parish, obviously, first two wells, they seem to be really strong almost approaching productivity rates of the DeSoto Parish wells. Maybe for you Dan, can you discuss how those wells came in versus expectations or especially results versus the – what risk you may have expected as you moved up north versus DeSoto Parish?

DanHarrison

Analyst

Yes, Ron. I mean, we are super excited about those wells. They definitely exceeded expectations I’d say the biggest risk was just the unknown of having a lot of newer vintage wells completed up that far north in the play. And I mean, there was obviously a significant number of radical number, I should say, of older vintage wells in the area that basically led us to believe this would be an area, but you never know so you put one of these fracs on see what you get. I will say the wells were very strong, I mean are basically hanging in there with a very little drop off since we [indiscernible].

Ron Mills

Analyst

Okay. And as we look at the 2018 capital programs, had a curiosity, a little bit larger number of gross wells, a lower number of net wells in the Haynesville, is there also some shift as from North Louisiana, East Texas is as you started to test the Harrison County position?

Roland Burns

Analyst

Ron, this is Roland. This is really not a significant change in the main drivers of the budget. There are some non-operated projects that are firmed out since we reported the third quarter that are in that number, but they are not – there is very small interest. So there is obviously as you get closer drilling the well, you will find exact ownership you have and then sometimes we may change the order of the projects kind of based on what fits the two dedicated frac crews and the three operated wells. But generally I would say there is very little change to the need of the budget that we presented earlier on this one just refinements.

Ron Mills

Analyst

And then last one operationally just on the on the Bossier, obviously that the Black Stone Oil looks a lot like the Jordan well, when you think about the development mode, how does – how do you think the Bossier hits in with the Haynesville, it looks like a little bit lower IP rates, but flatter decline, is that a correct representation in what did the relative economics look between the Bossier and the Haynesville?

Jay Allison

Analyst

Well, the Bossier looks – the Bossier does look just the same as the Jordan well we did in 2015. I will say operationally those wells are coming to slip the two that we have completed historically, a little bit tougher to complete and are tougher to frac, slightly more expensive just to do that and bumps usually so a little bit more to get out all the sand put away. But they did have that flatter production profile which we are really happy to see. And I would say just if you stack one versus the other obviously the Haynesville is the better rock between the two, but no long-term before the Bossier is going to be – will be a big, big value add for the company.

Ron Mills

Analyst

Great, I will let someone else jump and get back in line. Thanks.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Thanks Ron.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Mike Kelly from Seaport Global. Your line is open.

Mike Kelly

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning guys.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Hi Mike.

Mike Kelly

Analyst

Hey Jay. Great to hear the expectations haven’t changed, it pertains to the balance sheet initiatives and I have just got two questions on this you may [indiscernible] both of these, but we will try anyways, so one would be the $200 million and $300 million range for the Eagle Ford just want to hear if that’s a good number. And then two, just hearing your confidence that everything really should fall in place post the Eagle Ford sale makes me think, but you have got a framework really kind of teed up for how that revolver and a high yield offering would look and wonder if that’s fair – a fair comment and then just any more color on that front? Thanks.

Roland Burns

Analyst

Yes, sure. Mike this is Roland. Yes, I think that’s – I think you summarized it well. I think we are on course and to complete the kind of the refinancing, as you described. I think on that we obviously can’t get into that, but there is still uncertainty over the final sales price. But we are working with several companies to find the very best deal for us and hopefully that will complete soon because it’s a little bit of a gating item it seems like to finalize the others. The range, I mean that – we would probably steer you towards the lower end of the range. But we still think the range is good just based on market feedback at this point. And that’s probably the most in-depth we will go and we know to report back sooner rather than later on a more complete answer to your question.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Yes. And Mike I would add to that, remember it’s the sum of the parks. It is the Eagle Ford sale, the new credit facility, the new bonds and some equity. It’s the sum of that to get our leverage down and to create wealth on a per share basis for our stakeholders.

Mike Kelly

Analyst

Yes, I appreciate that and it’s great to hear that range is still in place, so good. And then operationally switching gears here the Caddo Parish, I am sorry the Bogle well results, I wanted go there, you mentioned that operationally some constraints here, maybe some more water, could you just give a little bit more color on these wells and if you expect them to ultimately turn up and look like type curve or better type wells? Thanks.

Dan Harrison

Analyst

Thank you. Yes. This is Dan, so the Bogle well is, if you remember our Grantham well based on our last call the Bogle wells were drill down on the very South end of acreage of the same area. We – there are some 3D seismic that indicates there are some faults located South of our acreage. And the south end of the area is in close proximity. We are just seeing a little bit more water on the initial flow rates, but we think these wells are going up still perform quite nicely, definitely be like we have seen the Grantham base since the last quarter. And it just sits with the higher initial waters that we make – when we were in this we are driving the well back, it’s hard to get an IP. And we are also limited by how much water we can halt, especially with the two well pad, we just add excessive amounts of water that we just couldn’t haul off to open up the wells any further.

Mike Kelly

Analyst

Got it. I appreciate that color. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Phillips Johnston from Capital One. Your line is open.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks. You have mentioned Eagle Ford oil volumes were impacted by shut-ins, I am not sure if you can answer this one, but what should we think about in terms of occurrence sort of normalized run rate of production there?

Dan Harrison

Analyst

So this is Dan. We have – there was definitely a big up-tick in activity. I would say most of this was –most of this was the activity that we are seeing around us over in four corners area. We just had a lot of wells shut-in. We don’t expect this to be a continual thing throughout the end of this year. I think they just were there program wells was primarily located right around our acreage. In the fourth quarter, we are not seeing quite as much of that in the first quarter and hopefully it will wind as we get further into ‘18.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst

Okay. So probably, somewhere close to that sort of 2,300 a day kind of rate or so?

Dan Harrison

Analyst

Yes, sir pretty similar.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Okay. And I think the good thing about that although we have had production shut-in it takes you that the activity around our footprint of acreage has increased. So that’s a good thing, so.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst

Okay. And then Eagle Ford PV10 [ph] I think at year end was $109 million based on SEC pricing, are you able to disclose what that number looks like either based on current strip prices or strip prices kind of as of year end ‘17?

Roland Burns

Analyst

I can that to you later on, we just have don’t have it exactly in front of us.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Chris Stevens from KeyBanc. Your line is open.

Chris Stevens

Analyst

Hi, guys. Nice, well results this quarter. I was just kind of curious how many of these refracs have you, I guess did you complete last year or I guess have you tested any wells with the newer line of refrac design that you show on the presentation?

DanHarrison

Analyst

So this is Dan, what we did not – we did not do any refracs last year. We basically have done the prep work on our first well and will be fracing that well about around the end of March.

Chris Stevens

Analyst

Okay. So I guess the – at this point, how should we think about the shape of how these wells are going to decline, I mean you show the IP rate of 12 million a day, are you expecting it to kind of look relatively similar to a newer well just from a lower starting points and I guess just what’s the type curve based on at this point?

Jay Allison

Analyst

So most of this is based on the other results from other operators in the industry, we have seen these IPs that range from say 1.2 to 1.5 the original IPs at the wellhead. And of course just the historical production that we have got on some of those wells is what we have used to build our type curve.

Chris Stevens

Analyst

Okay, got it. I guess just in terms of the operating expenses into 2018, we are seeing pretty nice sequential declines throughout 2017, so any guidance on what the unit operating expenses could look like in 2018?

RolandBurns

Analyst

Yes. This is Roland and I think you obviously can take the fourth quarter and eventually without the Eagle Ford kind of numbers in the fourth quarter and take them into 2018 with maybe some slight continued improvements as additional volumes – the additional volumes come with a little lower overall cost than the total company volumes are now so probably not as dramatic of changes, because eventually we get down to kind of the base cost of the new wells, but I think there is still a little bit more improvement to go, but in the fourth quarter, numbers without Eagle Ford are a great kind of starting point maybe with slight improvements later in 2018.

Chris Stevens

Analyst

Okay. Appreciate the color. Thanks a lot.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Beard from Coker Palmer. Your line is open.

David Beard

Analyst

Thank you gentlemen and good morning.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Good morning.

David Beard

Analyst

A micro and a macro question for you. On the micro front relative to the use of brown sand, could you give us a little more color relative to the service company give you any guarantee of performance and in terms of cost savings you can quantify that and would you think about taking some of that cost savings and increasing your sand loadings on the sand front?

Dan Harrison

Analyst

So, this is Dan. We are not looking at increasing our sand loadings with the local sand. We are looking at that primarily as a cost reducer though. We have just started using some locally sourced sand in our Haynesville fracs with the fracs that we got going on as of today. We are looking at about a 50:50 mix between that the white sand right now, because of mainly due to what’s available to us. Starting a little bit into next month, we anticipate having 100% availability of local sand. And the cost savings are definitely – they are fairly significant. As far as performance, we don’t feel like there is going to be any performance degradation due to the local sand. We have to a lot of the other operators that are a little bit ahead of us on how much they have pumped. And none of – I haven’t heard any negative news from other operator scores, anything affecting performance. Now, that’s longer term, I mean, we will have just to wait and see. I mean, that’s the local sand use in the Haynesville obviously has it been around for a real long time.

David Beard

Analyst

Good, thanks. And then on the macro question, you just referenced the use of equity couple of times in your comments and I wondered if that referred mostly to the conversion of the second liens or maybe some additional equity would help grease the wheels of refinancing the balance sheet or any color you could give there would be helpful?

Jay Allison

Analyst

Right. We can’t be too specific, but I think either source would be probably what we in addition maybe – but we haven’t really decided the best way to create that additional equity or the amount yet that we would seek to work, because I think for the successful bond operating all that and we really want to target improved leverage from where we have been and so I think the combination of that and the asset sale are key to putting in long-term debt that works really well for the company.

David Beard

Analyst

Totally understand. Appreciate the time gentlemen.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ron Mills from Johnson Rice & Company. Your line is open.

Ron Mills

Analyst

Just a quick follow-up on David’s question, Dan, if you think about the well cost as you presented on Slide 23, the move to local sand, what kind of impact could not have on the well cost versus the range you currently present?

Dan Harrison

Analyst

So if we go 100% of local sand on a 10,000 foot well, you are looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $0.5 million savings per well, which is pretty significant, the frac tell us about, I mean just the frac ticket alone is about 45% of the entire well cost. So, anything you can do to reduce cost layer is impactful, everything else after that or the smaller claims that you are working on, but I think that we have just heard nothing, but good news from the other operators that are using local sand and I just think that’s going to be around the stake.

Ron Mills

Analyst

Okay. And then just sort of housekeeping, Roland, on the cost structure when you breakdown the cost, I know you point to $0.53 of gathering production taxes and lifting costs without the Eagle Ford. What does that $0.53 look like from a breakdown standpoint? I am trying to get a sense as to what you think the – I think the biggest impact is going to be lower LOE going forward, I am trying to get a sense of the breakdown of that cost structure into Eagle Ford?

Roland Burns

Analyst

Sure. I mean, yes, I think the most consistent item is the gathering and transport cost because it’s more variable-based. So, that stays very confident I think if you could see between like third and fourth quarter. We see a little bit of reduction in production taxes and that of course it’s from the $0.07 maybe it comes down $0.01 or $0.02 lower than that as you progressed through ‘18. Now, the balance of it is really whole that’s all the – the balance of the lease operating expense, which because a lot of those numbers – lot of those cost item more fixed in nature than variable, so just the additional volumes kind of drive that down a little bit. So, the magnitude of the change may could be as much as another from fourth quarter of this year to fourth quarter next year you have, if everything goes to plan, we could see another $0.10 plus kind of shaved off that number.

Ron Mills

Analyst

But another way to think about it, that $0.39 LOE if most of the overall cost structure improvement is LOE that $0.39 comes somewhere in the $0.20 to $0.25 range, is that the right way to think about it?

Roland Burns

Analyst

Right. I would think yes, more in the $0.25 range is where we can get to.

Ron Mills

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Roland Burns

Analyst

Eagle Ford kind of off that as a playing field.

Ron Mills

Analyst

Right. Okay. Thanks.

Roland Burns

Analyst

What you are seeing in the DD&A cost is kind of almost the Eagle Ford already gone, because it’s been moved out of property, it was only really being depreciated that 1 month out of the 3 months in the quarter, so you make those seeing kind of that number almost without the Eagle Ford.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Jeffrey Campbell from Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

Jeffrey Campbell

Analyst

Good morning.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Hi, Jeff.

Jeffrey Campbell

Analyst

Congratulations on the exciting times to come here.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Thank you.

Jeffrey Campbell

Analyst

I just want to ask a couple of quick leasing acreage questions. Obviously one as part of the drilling longer laterals, I was just wondering, is there any constructive acreage swapping taking place in the Haynesville similar to what we are seeing in the Permian?

Jay Allison

Analyst

Definitely, we are able to complete one of a trade earlier, I mean earlier in 2017, with offset operator, because it’s the trade is pretty much a win-win if you can lineup the acreage works both productive for both parties, which is often hard to do, but as we have had some new companies come into the Haynesville and start development programs, it’s really those are the rail candidates to do that with, because they can enhance their acreage and we can enhance ours. So, we are constructively engaged with several of them to create more just trading to get – more of the acreage into operated units and maybe create longer multi-section wells versus single section wells.

Jeffrey Campbell

Analyst

Right. And I think the implications active basins are going to be a better place to the sort of stuff they happen. So, this is a nice indication of how the health of the Haynesville is appraising?

Jay Allison

Analyst

Sure. I think the difficulty might be that just it’s acreage that’s been dedicated a high,, gathering and transportation arrangement that a poison pill to us for. So that’s the biggest problem in the Haynesville where a lot of it could have been dedicated. Oftentimes maybe those operators can move those obligations to another block. So it just shows you the level of effort that has to go and to make these trades happen there. They are very – a lot of effort goes in both sides to kind of, to create a swap, but when they can be completed, they are very, very beneficial.

Jeffrey Campbell

Analyst

That’s good color. And my other question was I know corporate restructuring is the paramount use of cash right now, but I was wondering if you are seeing any interesting opportunities to pick up Bolton acreage and would you be open to acquiring it after - maybe after the Eagle Ford sale.

Jay Allison

Analyst

We are. And I mean we are doing that right now, in fact, that’s why we do have a partner, so we have got some strength even before the Eagle Ford shale.

Roland Burns

Analyst

Yes, even throughout 2017, yes, we were involved in most of that acreage that did trade and we are at the high bidder, but we are actively, the products that we liked we were actively pursuing it under – and again if you have had the luxury of having the USG who is very interested in the same thing. So, it gives us some financial strength, but yes, I think there is – we are excited about being able to more focus on that in 2018, especially after we complete the refinancing, because we do think that there are going to be bolt-on opportunities of all different sizes available.

Jeffrey Campbell

Analyst

Okay, great. Appreciate it. Congratulations again.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And that does conclude our question-and-answer session for today’s conference. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Jay Allison for any closing remarks.

Jay Allison

Analyst

Alright. Again, thank you Crystal. I always look forward to bringing all of our stakeholders up-to-date and really communicating what the future looks like. I have gone through these slides and as I look at the Caddo Parish and [indiscernible] wells, well performance, I look at the Bossier area and DeSoto Parish and Sabine [indiscernible] and I look at well activity and the performance there, I look at Harrison County and Panola County, looking at [indiscernible] and I look to offset operators that are in that area. I mean really how could you not be excited about the future of Comstock, it was very little bonding, I think we are going to be able to produce incredible performance in the Haynesville, Bossier drilling program and our JV partners Roland mentioned earlier and I did and our USG is perfect for us and for them. It is a true win-win. In the last week and we have met some of you, but we’ve got to speak at a conference in Freeport, which it just Haynesville producers for the most part. There were probably 600 or 700 people in the audience and then when you are in Dallas at a conference and they were probably 80 to 100 people in the audience, but we always say and we said at those conferences that our mandate as management and the board is to protect and on our debt holders and create as much wealth as possible on a per share basis for all equity stakeholders and we always entertain all opportunities that there kind of is out there that can create wealth for our stakeholders, as I look back on it, it was a bold business plan to believe that the Haynesville Bossier drilling program we announced in February 2015, 3 years ago we would be able to pull Comstock out of the deep valley, the E&P sector entered into around Thanksgiving in 2014, which it was a generational downturn that wiped out trillions of dollars of market and reserves to the entire energy sector and calls hundreds of energy sector companies to go away. So, over the past 3 years and especially in 2017, if you listen to Dan and Roland, we believe that the Haynesville Bossier results now allows us the opportunity to recap Comstock by March or April depending upon market conditions as we said, which is our goal and I can share each of you, our stakeholders that we are aggressively putting all the components in place with the goal to make that happen. I want to thank each of you for your time this morning. You can have spend it elsewhere and for your belief in the business plan that was announced 3 years ago, you can be sure that we never grow tired of working to achieve that plan. Thank you for your time.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.