Elias Habayeb
Analyst · KBW. Ryan, please go ahead. Your line is open
Thank you, Kevin, and good morning. I'll provide additional information about our financial results and key performance metrics as well as a few updates on LDTI and some high level guidance for 2023. We reported fourth quarter results and full year results this morning, boosted by improving base spread income and favorable mortality experience, notwithstanding recent market conditions. And we continue to make meaningful progress on our strategic initiatives to improve profitability. Fourth quarter adjusted ROE was 10.6%, operating EPS was $0.88, and adjusted pretax operating income, or APTOI, was $639 million. Our results included several notable items that contributed $0.16 to our operating EPS. These were offset by alternative returns below long term expectations of $0.12 and COVID mortality losses of $0.03. Adjusting for these items, our operating EPS would have been $0.87 for the quarter. With respect to APTOI, our results were 31% or $287 million below the prior year quarter. Approximately $635 million of this decline was driven by the impact of market conditions and structural changes associated with debt capitalization of Corebridge as well as divestitures completed in 2021. The principal headwind was variable investment income, which accounted for nearly $490 million of the decline. Excluding variable investment income, APTOI was 48% higher than the fourth quarter of 2021, largely due to increasing base spread income and improving mortality experience. Assets under management and administration was $357 billion as of December 31, up 3% sequentially, reflecting both market conditions and new business growth. The strength and diversification of our core earnings power is evident when you look at our sources of income for the fourth quarter, which, in aggregate, were up 15% year-over-year, excluding variable investment income. Base spread income, which is our largest source of earnings, grew 25% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 due to higher new money rates coupled with strong growth in our spread-based products. Fee income, our second largest source of earnings declined 20% versus the prior year quarter partially a function of underlying asset valuations. Underwriting margin, which is primarily derived from our life business, rose 91% year-over-year, excluding variable investment income, mainly due to improving mortality experience. Shifting to net investment income, base yield was 4.42% in the fourth quarter. This was the second quarter in a row where we saw significant growth with a base yield up 34 basis points sequentially and 54 basis points year-over-year. This growth was driven by a combination of reinvestment activity at higher new money rates, resets on floating rate assets and growth of the overall portfolio as well as a onetime notable item. This notable item contributed 15 basis points to the base yield, most of which benefited our Life Insurance segment. To reiterate my comments during last quarter's call, we expect the benefit of higher new money rates and our partnership with Blackstone to continue to emerge during future quarters as more of the investment portfolio is reinvested at higher yields and earns in. Thus far, the improvement in base yield has outweighed any increases in policyholder crediting rates. Moving on to expenses, total operating expenses increased sequentially on a net basis. While our fixed cost benefits from Corebridge Forward activity, they were more than offset by incremental costs that kicked in with our IPO, continued establishment of standalone capabilities as well as a onetime item. Following up on Kevin's earlier comments about Corebridge Forward, we have a roadmap for $400 million of expense savings, and we have acted upon or contracted approximately $232 million of exit run rate savings as of the end of 2022. Only a small percentage of these savings have earned into our results thus far. We expect that approximately $130 million will earn in, in 2023, with an offset from the full year earn-in effect from incremental costs that we picked up during 2022 to operate a standalone public company, which we estimate at $75 million to $100 million. We continue to estimate the cost to achieve will approximate $300 million over the life of the initiative, with this onetime investment delivering $400 million in annual run rate savings. So far, the cost to achieve has been $84 million. We continue to expect the implementation of a leaner operating model will contribute approximately one point to ROE growth by 2024. We also made significant strides separating Corebridge from AIG. To-date, we've incurred about $180 million of the $350 million to $450 million estimated cost to achieve. The bulk of the remaining work is centered around separating shared applications which should largely be completed by the end of 2023 or early '24. Next, I will speak to segment results, beginning with Individual Retirement, our largest business. Individual Retirement reported APTOI of $436 million, benefiting from strong growth in base spread income as well as overall lower expenses, partially offset by lower fee income. Base spread income for the quarter was up 35% over the prior year quarter, driven by spread expansion. Base net investment spreads increased 54 basis points year-over-year and 27 basis points sequentially. Fee income declined 21% due to lower asset valuations and net outflows in our variable annuity portfolio. Our hedging programs continued to perform as expected despite volatile market conditions. The higher rates that have been driving our strong sales at attractive margins are as expected, also leading to higher surrenders. That being said, our surrender rate remains below our expectation and net inflows in the general account were quite strong at $740 million in the fourth quarter and over $4 billion for all of 2022. In addition, we maintained strong liquidity in the general account, well positioning us to cover surrenders which we expect will remain elevated in 2023 relative to historical levels due to the materially higher interest rate and credit spread environment. Group Retirement has been influenced by many of the same trends impacting Individual Retirement. Group Retirement reported APTOI of $177 million, benefiting from strong growth in base spread income, offset by lower fee income. Base spread income grew 13% versus the fourth quarter of 2021 due to spread expansion. Base net investment spread increased 17 basis points year-over-year but was flat sequentially. Fee income declined 20% year-over-year due to lower asset valuations and net outflows. While net flows remain negative, we continue to see outflows concentrated in the higher GMIR bucket with inflows in the lower GMIR buckets. This trend is expected to improve the spread profile for the business over time. We expect continued growth of our advisory and brokerage fee revenue, which reflects our strategy to pivot the business into a platform which provides for a higher stream of less captive incentive cash flows over time. Life Insurance reported APTOI of $97 million in the fourth quarter inclusive of $22 million of notable items. Core underwriting margin, excluding notable items, improved 78% year-over-year due to improved mortality experience. Our fourth quarter mortality experience was favorable to expectation, inclusive of $21 million of COVID losses. Notable items in Life Insurance included approximately $64 million of a onetime item in net investment income, offset by $42 million related to the positive resolution of certain legal matters. The legal matters included a recapture of certain YRT treaties that were subject to arbitration as well as the resolution of an unrelated litigation matter. We have now resolved a majority of our YRT disputes. Considering this business more broadly and looking forward, we expect continued growth of base portfolio income and a reversion to historical mortality levels as COVID moves into an endemic phase. Institutional markets reported APTOI of $64 million in the fourth quarter with stable core sources of income as compared to the prior year quarter. The year-over-year decline in APTOI was largely driven by lower variable investment income. Total insurance reserves grew 8% year-over-year, reflecting the growth of our PRT business and gate [ph] portfolio. We're encouraged by the progression of the institutional markets business, reflecting consistent revenue growth -- sorry, reserve growth, strong new business margins and expanding spreads, which we expect will continue to improve profitability in 2023. And lastly, losses in our Corporate and Other segment increased sequentially due to higher interest expense, resulting from a full quarter of debt service on hybrid securities and the delayed draw term loan, which was drawn down in the third quarter 2022. Turning to our balance sheet, we assess the strength of our balance sheet through different lenses including, but not limited to liquidity levels, capital ratios, financial leverage and our risk profile. Our balance sheet remains healthy with strong liquidity and capital as well as a balanced diversified investment portfolio and reasonable financial leverage as of December 31. Adjusted book value was $21.4 billion or $33.10 per share, up 9% year-over-year, but down 2% from the third quarter. The sequential decline was due to derivative and foreign exchange mark-to-market losses in the fourth quarter that partially reversed gains from the first nine months of the year. Our financial leverage ratio was 29.6%, within our target range. We continue to expect that our balance sheet will naturally delever over time as a result of book value growth. Our Life Fleet RBC ratio remained strong and was above target of 400%, largely aligned with the prior year quarter estimate -- prior quarter estimate. Recognizing there's a lot of uncertainty in the macro environment, we feel we're starting 2023 in a strong position. We ended the year with ample holding company liquidity of $1.5 billion. Our insurance companies returned $2.2 billion of normalized distribution during 2022 on par with the distributions made in each of the preceding three years. We paid dividends to our shareholders of approximately $300 million since the IPO. We declared our dividend for the first quarter of 2023, which will be paid on March 31. This represents a dividend yield over 4% based upon our recent stock price. As Kevin previously indicated, we remain focused on delivering on our financial goals, including achieving a total payout ratio of 60% to 65% by 2024. Pivoting to LDTI, it's important to remember that LTI [ph] does not impact our economic returns, statutory results or insurance company cash flows. When we begin reporting under LDTI in 2023, we expect to see reduced volatility in our operating results given changes to the accounting for market risk benefits impact. The impact to our operating earnings run rate should be neutral to modestly favorable over time. We expect continued volatility in our GAAP earnings due to the requirement to fair value market risk benefits in our GAAP results. We also expect an increase in adjusted book value which we currently estimate to approximate $1.5 billion as of September 30, 2022. In terms of the initial transition adjustment as of January 1, 2021, we currently estimate an approximate $1 billion to $1.5 billion reduction in GAAP shareholders' equity resulting from a decline in other comprehensive income, offset by an increase in retained earnings. We further estimate the overall impact to GAAP shareholders' equity as of September 30, 2022, is an increase of approximately $1 billion. This favorable impact to book value reflects the benefit of Corporate having a diversified balance sheet, including both life and annuity products. In terms of sensitivities to macro factors, our preliminary estimate of the APTOI impact from movements in equities and interest rates post LDTI are as follows. First, an immediate 10% reduction in equities is expected to reduce fee income net of advisory fee expense by approximately $85 million over a 12 month period. And second, an immediate upward parallel shift of 100 basis points across the treasury curve is expected to raise APTOI by approximately $165 million, $265 million and $365 million for each of the first, second and third years following the rate increase. Now I would like to conclude with a commentary on our outlook for 2023. Looking ahead, we expect to achieve EPS growth resulting from our initiatives involving expense savings, investments, organic growth and capital management. As to our sources of income over the next 12 months, we expect to see incremental growth in base spread income and underwriting margins, while fee income will depend on the extent of a recovery in asset valuations. We continue to expect long-term return assumptions for our alternative investments will range between 8% and 9%. And finally, we expect our effective tax rate will approximate 21% in 2023 before discrete items. In summary, we remain focused on executing our strategies and deploying capital in a way that aids our efforts to create sustainable and profitable long-term growth. We have a strong balance sheet, and we remain focused on delivering on our financial goals. I will now hand it back to Kevin.