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Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Sun, May 7, 2017

$64.11

+2.20%

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Transcript

Randy Bhatia

Management

Thanks, Amy. Sorry about the technical difficulties, everyone. Good morning and welcome to Cheniere Energy's first quarter 2017 earnings conference call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call can be found on our website located at cheniere.com. Participating on today's call are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and Chief Executive Officer; Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Michael Wortley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide 2 of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risk. In addition, we may include references to non-GAAP financial measures, such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow and distributable cash flow per share. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix of the slide deck. As part of our discussion of Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P., or CQP, and Cheniere Energy Partners LP Holdings, or CQH. On this call, we do not intend to cover CQP or CQH's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. As shown on the agenda on Slide 3, Jack will begin with an overview of the quarter and then give an update on construction and operating progress at our liquefaction projects. Following Jack's comments, we will hear from Anatol on our commercial activities; and then from Michael, who will review financial results. I will now turn the call over to Jack.

Jack Fusco

Management

Thank you, Randy, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today for Cheniere's first quarter 2017 earnings call. The prepared remark's component of today's call will be abbreviated compared to our previous quarterly calls, as we recently held our 2017 Analyst Day where we presented the company to the investment community in considerable detail. We spent a lot of time talking about our outlook, plans for growth, our strategic approach to managing our financials, and the competitive advantages we've built via best-in-class execution of multiple phases of our business model. The Analyst Day slide presentation and the transcript of the event are available on our website. In addition to my review of the first quarter results and highlights on today's call, I will review some of the key takeaways from our Analyst Day presentation, then the turn call to Anatol to briefly our marketing activities for the quarter, followed by Michael, who will review our financial results. Turn now to Slide 5 for an overview of some key operational and financial highlights for the first quarter of 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, we generated consolidated revenue of approximately $1.2 billion and $483 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA. Net income attributable to common stockholders for the first quarter was $54 million. The growth in all metrics compared to 2016 period is driven, primarily by our continued transition into operations at our Sabine Pass Liquefaction project and favorable market dynamics for our marketing cargoes, which emerged during the quarter. During the first quarter, we loaded a total of 43 cargoes of LNG from Sabine Pass, seven of which were commissioning cargoes related to Train 3, and Anatol will provide some color on the market for LNG cargoes during the quarter in a few minutes. As you all know,…

Anatol Feygin

Management

Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. As Jack mentioned, I'll briefly review some of our commercial activities for the first quarter of 2017. Before addressing our activities downstream of the plant on the demand side, I'd like to mention our activities upstream of the plant on the gas supply side. The first quarter saw record pipeline close in LNG production numbers as Trains 1 and 2 were in operation the entire quarter and Train 3 commissioning was successfully completed. During the first quarter, we were able to manage the changing day-to-day plant consumption related to commercial operations and commissioning. We've long maintained that our commercial model, which includes the procurement of gas for LNG production is not just a differentiator, but a structural competitive advantage. We're proving it today with reliable supply and leveraging pipeline and storage infrastructure to ensure flexibility and responsiveness to plant and to market conditions. Slide 9 illustrates the global destination of cargoes produced at Sabine Pass since the startup of operations a year ago. Global LNG demand continued to grow in the first quarter and Sabine Pass volume was there to help fill the demand. The 43 cargoes that Jack mentioned that were loaded from Sabine Pass during the quarter were delivered to 16 countries. That brings a total number of destination countries for Sabine Pass cargoes to 20, an increase of 6 from the end of the year. It's notable as LNG from our facility has now reached more than 50% of all currently imported countries worldwide basically within the first full year of operations. We expect LNG from our facility to reach two incremental new countries in the near future, and expect LNG from Sabine Pass to continue reaching new destinations in upcoming quarters. Now, please turn to Slide 10. The destinations of…

Michael Wortley

Management

Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to announce our financial results for the first quarter of 2017, the summary of which began on Slide 12. Before I begin, there are a couple of things I'd like to point out as we go through these results. First, as we stated earlier, Cheniere Energy consolidates the results of CQP and CQH. Second, if you had reviewed our 10-Q, you'll notice that we now report results as a single segment, rather than two segments as in the past. This was born out of some of the organizational restructuring that has taken place over the past 18 months and resulting changes in how we manage the business. We continue to be pleased with the positive transition of our financial results as the trains at Sabine Pass enter into commercial service. For the first quarter of 2017, we reported consolidated revenue of $1.2 billion, compared to $69 million in the corresponding 2016 period. Revenue recognized from LNG sales was approximately $1.1 billion in the first quarter. During the first quarter, we loaded 43 cargos at Sabine Pass, 7 of which were commissioning cargos. As a reminder, proceeds from the sales of commissioning cargoes are recorded as an offset to construction in progress on the balance sheet because these amounts are earned prior to our taking over care, custody and control of the respective train. Of the 43 cargos loaded during the quarter, our third-party SBA customers lifted 21 cargos and our marketing function lifted 22 cargos. On a volume basis, we recognized revenue in the first quarter on approximately 140 TBtu produced at Sabine Pass. This number does not quite equate to the volume of LNG loaded at Sabine Pass during the first quarter, because revenue per cargo sold on a delivered or…

Operator

Operator

Your first question today comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst

Good morning. Congratulations on the strong quarter.

Jack Fusco

Management

Thanks, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst

Just wanted to touch base with results as it stands with relation to your guidance out there, it seems like you're tracking a significant portion of that just one quarter in the book and you have two more trains coming online over the course of the year. Granted, there's stable seasonality in this quarter and kind of helped out a bit. But just wondering if you could help me reconcile those two things? And is it conservatism, or do you see, I guess room to track above guidance at this point with what you've achieved?

Michael Wortley

Management

Hey, Jeremy. It's Michael. Yeah. We'll stick with the $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion. Certainly off to a good start. We knew that when we gave you the guidance obviously two weeks ago. And I'm not sure we can help you with 2017. We always knew that 2017 was going to be the year that we had a lot of exposure to the short-term market due to the fact the trains come on prior to the DFCD dates of the contracts, right? And that is most pronounced this year. So, we had a lot of volume at our CMI disposal in the first quarter as Anatol - and as you've seen in the markets. Markets were very strong. So we made a lot of money in the first quarter. We still have those volumes in the second quarter, but margins are substantially lower. And Anatol can comment on that. But you see that in the market as well. So Q2 is likely to be weaker than Q1. We'll see how marketing margins end up. And then we'll start to do better later in the year as KOGAS comes on June 1, and then we'll see when Train 4 comes on ultimately and what margins are at the end of the year. So it's going to be - there's a lot of moving targets this year. But I think we're still comfortable with our guidance, but off to a good start.

Jack Fusco

Management

Yeah. And Jeremy, I would just add - this is Jack - that I am extremely pleased with Cheniere, our professionals, all the way through, from procuring the gas to operating the trains to constructing the trains. I mean, we had - all cylinders were clicking for us to marketing and disposing of the cargo. So, I'm very pleased with our performance in the quarter.

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst

Great. Thanks for that. And just one follow-up. Just wanted to touch base with Midship, it seems like you've developed a really good project to source gas at attractive basis. Just wondering if you had any updated thoughts as far as the Permian and Waha there, because the basis continues to gap out even further from where it was at Analyst Day. And just wondering - it seems like that could be a really interesting opportunity for you guys, as far as participating in a pipe solution or sourcing really cheap gas, just wondering if you could share any thoughts there.

Anatol Feygin

Management

Thanks, Jeremy. This is Anatol. Thanks for your kind comments on Midship. We're clearly very excited about that, especially given what we're seeing in the SCOOP and the STACK from the producer success standpoint. And from a gas supply standpoint, we do think this is a key structural competitive advantage of ours, given our scale and given our early-mover advantage on that front. But recall, we approach all of this from a best economic value proposition standpoint on buy versus build. You can trust that we are involved in all of the discussions with - I believe it's now 10 pipeline projects that are proposed out of the Permian. We get involved from an investment standpoint if we think that that's the best option for us from a holistic kind of sourcing and supply standpoint. So, we'll continue to monitor the situation. We'll continue to be involved in dialog with producers from whom we are buying gas already and on the infrastructure side. So the opportunity isn't lost on us. How we decide to prosecute it depends on what the best value proposition will be.

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst

That makes sense. Thanks for the color.

Anatol Feygin

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ted Durbin of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Ted Durbin

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So, I just want to dial in a little bit here, I know we talked about it a little bit at the Analysts Day. But your operating expenses as we move through the rest of the year on the O&M side, you've got Slide 7 here where you say the next trains are going to be 30% of the initial train phase. As we move forward, how should we think about the incremental trains as they come online and the run rate O&M even into 2018?

Michael Wortley

Management

No, I don't think we really want to get into O&M by train. I think we gave some color on the 30% as a competitive advantage. Once you get the first train built, it's cheaper to operate the subsequent trains, but I think, we'll keep our guidance sort of at the EBITDA level rather than getting into what each train is going to cost to operate.

Ted Durbin

Analyst

Okay. That's fine. And then, just coming back to the - again, on the same slide, the $500 to $600 a ton for your next expansions. Can you just talk about additional storage you might need or berthing or other things associated with those costs, other than those costs, and how that might differ between if you were to do Corpus 3 versus Sabine 6?

Jack Fusco

Management

Yeah. So, as we reiterated, we think Corpus 3 will be the lowest cost LNG expansion project on the Gulf Coast. So, in that number is what it would take for us to not only to build the train, but also low the shifts and process the LNG. So, we're not trying to hide anything from the market. If we further expand Corpus beyond Train 3, then we'll have to look at what our needs would be if we need an additional berth or if we need additional tankage. Sabine 6, as you know, Ted, we're just getting 4 up. We'll have 5 about a year after 4, and then - Train 5. And then for Sabine 6, that will give us a lot of operating information on those two berths, on those loading arms. There are probably incremental improvements we can make on our ability to load faster. But as far as tankage is concerned, I'm pretty sure the 17 Bcf of LNG over there should be sufficient for us. Does that help?

Ted Durbin

Analyst

Helps a lot. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.

Jack Fusco

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Shere at Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

Craig Shere

Analyst

Good morning. Total EBITDA divided by total liquefaction volumes recognized in the quarter, if I'm doing the math right, might be just over $3.75 per MMBtu. And that seems especially high even accounting for some strong winter spreads. Assuming that it's due to some margin on volume sourced from third-party supply, possibly, to serve the legacy 150 million MMBtu of Asian pre-sold volumes through next year, now that you've collapsed reporting to one segment, can you provide some color as to how to think about marketing contribution, the repeatability of above-market performance?

Michael Wortley

Management

Well, I'll take the first thing, Craig. This is Michael. We said two years ago we sold 45 cargos or so, and I think 2014 at very high margins and you could go back and look at what prices were there and kind of figure out what the margins were and most of those are going to get delivered this year. So, not all 45, but maybe 35 or 40. I'm not sure exactly what the number is. So, those cargos are going to be there. And then everything above that from marketing is really totally subject to very short-term margins. And so, you can watch the screen like us and we're certainly selling into the highest price market, highest price that we see. And that's what those margins will be. And then I think the third-party deals are easy for you to figure out. Would you add anything, Anatol?

Anatol Feygin

Management

No. Thanks, Michael. Thanks, Craig for the question. As Michael said, on the commissioning cargoes, they are sort of, by definition, at market. You can do the math with our guidance to figure out how much of that kind of legacy volume was included here. But yeah, at this point, there are no huge mysteries. And again, to Michael's comments earlier on guidance, this will be a year where there is a lot of market access with relatively short notice by the marketing team. So, we'll leave it at that.

Jack Fusco

Management

And I would just say, Craig, that looking in the future, I think we are all very impressed with the increase in demand, especially in Asia. And I don't think any of the consultants have anticipated the demand increases that we're starting to witness.

Craig Shere

Analyst

Fair enough. And those roughly maybe nine cargoes a quarter from those legacy attract division, pre-sold contracts, is that relatively even through the year or should we think about that being frontend or backend loaded?

Anatol Feygin

Management

As good an estimate as any.

Craig Shere

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Webber on Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Michael Webber

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys. How are you?

Jack Fusco

Management

Good, Michael. How are you?

Michael Webber

Analyst

Good. Good. I'm glad we just touched on the pre-2015 volumes, seems like a lot of that's still ahead of you. I wanted to touch base on, I guess, a macro question first and then kind of a leverage question towards the back end. But just from a high-level perspective, if we think about - you mentioned kind of the forward demand and obviously there's kind of a rising tide of second wave projects in the U.S. that's building to try to meet that demand whenever that balance may strike. When you tier out the probabilities or sort of kind of probability-weight those projects that you're competing with long term, it seems like the brownfield extensions certainly are top of the queue. But I'm curious at what point - maybe it's after Sabine - Corpus 3 and Sabine 6, at what point do you think it's more of a dogfight between extensions versus, say, a Golden Pass or even on Lake Charles or something along those lines? If you're going to tear out the competition coming from the U.S., at what point do you think you start running into a more competitive dynamic?

Jack Fusco

Management

I think, Michael, you have to look at all of the infrastructure that we've put in place and its scalability. So, it isn't easy getting that quantity of natural gas into one location in the United States, right, in a one single point. And I would hate to do that with one pipeline going into one single location in the U.S.

Michael Webber

Analyst

Right.

Jack Fusco

Management

So, that's one. The second thing I would consider is the fact that we're a full-service shop. So, a lot of the utilities around the world do not like the tolling model and they don't like the FOB model necessarily, because they don't want to deal with shipping. So, if you're utility and you need reliable supply, you'd rather have that thing delivered directly to your dock, right? And that's what we offer. So, we offer more flexibility, more customer options, if you will. And quite honestly, I'm very pleased with our - reputationally that we're being recognized as a company that we can actually deliver what it says it can deliver. So, that's why I feel good about our positioning relative to some of the newer facilities, or wannabes, if you will.

Michael Webber

Analyst

Got you. Okay. That's helpful. Just one more and I'll turn it over. It's actually a question for Michael. And around your maximum kind of leverage targets, it's really kind of a holdover from the Analyst Day, but it's still pertinent today. And just thinking about the delta between kind of - I believe you gave the leverage limits that kind of subs at around 5x EBITDA and then kind of a consolidated or kind of a parent-level maximum of about 7 times EBITDA. So, one - I believe I've got those figures right, but I'm just curious where the delta comes from and whether it's viable to think there's room there for a leverage to help facilitate eventual streamlining of the structure?

Michael Wortley

Management

We think we have the right amount of leverage, right? So I think we have lots and lots of capacity to go borrow a bunch of money to go buying things. So, no, I think we're where we want to be on a leverage standpoint, right, 7 times on a consolidated basis, 5 times on a standalone basis. I want to point out, I don't think I did a good job at the Analyst Day pointing out that the 5 times is contracted only. I think it says that in the presentation, but I didn't emphasize that. When you add marketing volumes in there, add $1, add $2, add $3, whatever you want, you get into a kind of mid-4s to even low-4s on a standalone basis. So, I would just point that out as some added information. That's how we look at it, obviously. Our marketing business is likely to make money over time.

Michael Webber

Analyst

Got you. Okay. I can follow-up offline. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Fotis Giannakoulis of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Yes. Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. Jack, I want to go back on the demand picture, and you mentioned about the strong growth of demand in Asia. I want to ask more particularly for Latin America, where it seems that you have sold most of your volumes until now. How do you view the demand there? And also, if you can make a comment about the El Campesino project, where does this stand? And if you are looking other similar projects that they can provide some additional long-term selling opportunities?

Jack Fusco

Management

Okay. Well, thanks, Fotis. And I'm going to actually turn the answer over to Anatol, who was just down in South America recently. So, Anatol?

Anatol Feygin

Management

Thanks, Jack. Thanks, Fotis. Yes. So, again, we're advertising amongst other things the flexibility and the responsiveness of this business model and Cheniere's volumes. As you clearly see from us and from all the other sources, the market raises a flag and the supply response that is going to continue to be a seasonal issue. We just spent a lot of time kind of blanketing Asia. And it's pretty clear that not only is demand rising there, but winter peaking demand is rising even faster, and that's going to continue to drive this kind of seasonality. We think that, again, the pie continues to grow and that the flexibility and the diversion optionality is the right business model for the LNG market going forward, and we're going to be there to fill that. In terms of your question on El Campesino in Chile in particular, we are very supportive of this project as are our partners, EDF and AME. We continue to push forward. We are very well-engaged in the permitting process, which has resumed. We have good dialog with the indigenous groups and are optimistic that we'll get that squared away this year. In terms of the broader question, are we interested in continuing to do that in the Southern Cone and elsewhere, absolutely. We're looking to continue to grow the value chain downstream of the plant. We have skills. We have resources. We have an E&C group that's 100 people strong that can help those new to this business understand what the issues are, how to put this infrastructure in place. And again, to the extent that there's a modest amount of capital that we can commit to that, we would look to do that to the extent that it helps us supply those types of projects. So we absolutely continue to view the El Campesino project not only as a project that we like and continue to support, but also a model that we can replicate along various dimensions, along various geographies.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you very much, Anatol. I'll leave it there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question today comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury of Bernstein. Your line is open.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Analyst

Good morning. Just a couple of quick ones. First, do you expect the commissioning timeline and ramp for Train 4 to look similar to Train 3, or is there anything you can see now that would make it look different?

Jack Fusco

Management

No, I think it's going to look similar to Train 3. I think we're - we continue to learn, we continue to get better, so hopefully we can even do it better and faster.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Analyst

Great. Thanks. And then, is there a point at which the Midship Pipeline would hit a delay if we don't have FERC quorum by then?

Jack Fusco

Management

Sure. I mean, it's a very long way out.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Analyst

Okay.

Jack Fusco

Management

It's well over a year from now. Recall that we pre-filed Midship in November, so the clock has been running. And from an interstate pipeline standpoint, this is as down the center of the fairway a project as you get. The build is all in Oklahoma, and it is co-located with the existing pipeline right-of-way for the vast majority of the project. So we don't anticipate, of course, any delays, but we've got a lot of time to resolve these issues. And we certainly don't expect to be held up by lack of a quorum at the FERC currently.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Analyst

Okay. So a year from now before that starts to become a constraint.

Jack Fusco

Management

Over a year. Yeah.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Analyst

Over a year. Okay. That's all for me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kania of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Alex Kania

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I think this is also going to be a question for Anatol, but just curious what you're hearing in the market on these most recent Australian proposals to restrict the LNG exports. Is that kind of changing any demand dynamics you're seeing for kind of marketing cargos maybe for the back half of the year?

Anatol Feygin

Management

No. It's not changing current marketing dynamics or plans. But it is causing quite a ripple in discussions, and there's a lot of interest in participating in AGL's process for the East Coast FSRU. And that kind of - I think to your broader question, this issue of how does the market continue to rebalance, it's continuing to have kind of negative supply surprises and positive demand surprises as you'd expect in this kind of pricing environment and East Coast of Australia is just the latest salvo in that.

Alex Kania

Analyst

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James. Your line is open.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

Thanks for taking the question, guys. You mentioned that marketing margins in Q2 are going to be meaningfully down versus the prior quarter. Is that a function of just oil prices coming down or are there other dynamics there?

Anatol Feygin

Management

No, it's just the function of LNG prices coming down, right? It's doesn't have anything to do in the short term with the linkages to the legacy contracts that are oil indexed, right? The markets will clear wherever S&D will make it clear. So, in the short run, it's purely an issue of what's in the market today and really just short-term market LNG prices, not crude.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

Okay. Understood. Then as you get to four trains by the end of the year, approaching fairly steady-state operations, is there a sense of seasonality in what your cargoes will look like, just given the fact that you're shipping to customers in Southern Hemisphere, as well as Northern Hemisphere with different demand profiles?

Anatol Feygin

Management

Thanks, Pavel. I'll start on that and maybe have some reinforcements, but there is certainly seasonality in Sabine Pass' production and that's something we touched on at Analysts Day. There is no question that refrigerators run better when it's cool and dry, and Sabine is going to be kind of the poster child for that volume. Fortunately, for us, as I mentioned earlier, the LNG market and the global gas market is continuing to grow and continuing to exhibit this increased Northern Hemisphere winter demand profile. So, we're nicely positioned from that standpoint and we're comfortable that we can continue to supply Sabine Pass with the challenges of logistics and procurement in the winter. In terms of the overall magnitude, recall that this will be our first summer operating multiple trains. And we're going to have a much better feel for what the kind of steady-state numbers that you refer to look like after we're done with the production testing over this multi-train summer period.

Jack Fusco

Management

And I would just say, Pavel, that we don't expect that as foundation customers to have any real seasonality in the shipping. We may have some seasonality in our excess cargoes that are based on, what Anatol said, just weather and the technology that's at Sabine versus Corpus for that matter.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

I appreciate it guys.

Jack Fusco

Management

Yeah.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions in the queue at this time. I now turn the call back to the presenters for any closing remarks.

Jack Fusco

Management

This is Jack. I just want to thank everybody for your time and your support of Cheniere. Anyway, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.