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Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 19, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone. And welcome to the Consumer Portfolio Services 2018 First Quarter Operating Results Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. Before we begin, management has asked me to inform you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. I refer you to the Company’s SEC filings for further clarification. The Company assumes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. With us here now is Mr. Charles Bradley, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Jeff Fritz, Chief Financial Officer. I would now turn the call over to Mr. Bradley.

Charles Bradley

Management

Thank you. And welcome to our first quarter conference call, our earnings results call. Overall, we’re very pleased with the quarter. The numbers worked out the way we would expect them to, and so all that’s very good. More importantly and important to talk about is effective with the first quarter 2018, we have adapted the fair value accounting for finance receivables acquired in the first quarter and thereafter. But this was really all about is that in 2020, January 1, 2020, the CECL will come into effect and that’s the current expected loss standards will be adopted and we would have to adopt that on January 1, 2020. And what sort of the layman's terms of this, I’ll let Jeff talk about a little more in a minute. But starting in January 1, 2020, you have to take a provision for the entire expected loss of the loan that they booked. Today, we take what will be 12 months and even take that over 12 months. So in today’s accounting, we assume that during the first 12 months alone, we’ll build enough reserves against that loan to have 12 months of losses going forward. And that today, starting in 2020, you’re going to have to provide enough for the losses for the loan for the life for the loan on day one. One can imagine that the earnings hit and then companies are going to take and its public companies in 2020, all companies in 2021. So the earnings that you would take in 2020 will be rather extreme, so much so they would wipe out the vast majority of our book value, something we do not want to do. So to prevent that from happening, we’ve adapted fair value accounting for all loans purchased starting in January 2018.…

Jeff Fritz

Management

Thanks Brad, welcome everybody. Let's talk about fair value accounting just briefly. So again this method of accounting, we estimate a net level yield for each quarterly pool of receivables as they require. This estimated net level yield takes into consideration factors such as the interest rate of the underlying loans, the estimated timing and magnitude of charge-offs over the life of the loans and things like the estimated prepayments. Then once this net level yield is estimated in that fashion, interest income on that portfolio those loans is recognized as revenue as interest income based on its estimated level yield. This method varies from traditional accounting method we’ve used for the loan portfolio. And there is no provision for credit losses when you use the fair value method. There is no allowance for credit losses in the balance sheet when you use the fair value method, because this level yield that I just described is effectively reduced by the impact of the estimated credit losses. So this accounting method that we've adopted is only a place for receivables originated in Q1, 2018 and thereafter. The portfolio that was on the balance sheet at 12/31/2017, which we’ll refer to as the legacy portfolio, will continue to be accounted for in the traditional fashion, the interest income will be recognized on a gross basis based on the interest rates of those underlying receivables and we’ll continue to maintain an allowance for the loan losses on the balance sheet by establishing through the establishment of a provision for credit losses on the income statement. So it's important for folks following the financial reporting to think of us now us having two portfolios, the legacy portfolio, the traditional accounting and the Q1 2018 and thereafter portfolio, which will use the fair value accounting…

Charles Bradley

Management

Thanks Jeff. So to talk about the CECL one more minute. I am not too sure when that was put together, it was really meant for companies like ourselves where you have subprime and you have significant losses as much as everyone in our industry and certainly we have proven that subprime works just fine. Having to take that entire loss allowance upfront is certainly a large burden to bear. I think probably CECL is more into the banks where they could make that adjustment rather easily, because it's much smaller in terms of the percentage. Anyways, it’s why we're stuck with and that's why we’ve had to switch to fair value for the next couple of years. Remembering that our book value is something close to $9 and someday when our industry settles down and everything comes back to hopefully normal and companies traded book value are multiple to book value, we'll still have ours. Anyway that's the rationale for all that. Moving on the other interesting parts of the industry is the competitive nature of industry today. And as everyone knows, we've talked about cycles and this is what we usually call the third cycle, and third cycle has been dominated by PE players putting money into companies, trying to grow them a lot, take them public have somebody buy them, any of those things. Obviously, that hasn't worked out very well for a whole lot of folks. Over the last two years in 2016 and '17, everybody said there'll be some consolidation in the industry, there was none. So far this year, two companies have gone away. There's probably another one kind of gone away, at least three or four more on the rope. So 2018 may finally be the year that consolidation happens in the industry,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question comes from Mitchell Sacks of Grand Slam Asset Management. Your line is now open.

Mitchell Sacks

Analyst

With respect to the first quarter and the move to the fair value accounting. Does that impact the bottom line in terms of net income earnings per share?

Jeff Fritz

Management

Well, yes it does a little bit, Mitch, because in the traditional accounting, the earnings tend to be a little frontloaded in the portfolio, because if you think about so you got a loan it’s got a 20% coupon and then we build and so the things start occurring at 20% right from day one. And then we build, as Brad just mentioned, an allowance over a 12 months period. And so that provision for credit losses is recognized, begins to be recognized right away, but it’s a relatively low amount compared to the 20% coupon that the loan is occurring at. In the fair value world, you’re immediately coming up with this level of yield that takes into account the losses from day one. So you’re booking a net lower number but it’s again a level number, so there's not the frontloading that comes from the traditional accounting, and it's not as lumpy. And I think what’s most important I meant to say this before is the economics of these receivables is the same no matter what accounting will do. So at the end of the day at the end of the years that these loans are on the books, the economic benefit to the company is exactly the same no matter what amount -- what method of accounting you use but to your -- answer to your question is yes, it does have somewhat of a negative impact on the earnings at least initially.

Charles Bradley

Management

The other part of that is that under the old accounting, as we’ll call it, you defer the acquisition cost and today you recognize them immediately. And that probably is the most prominent effect at least in the beginning. Over time, we’ll catch up to that. But you go from deferring it all to taking it all. So that has probably more negative effect initially then even the fair value though, they’re both negative.

Mitchell Sacks

Analyst

Do you have an estimate of what earnings per share would have been if you had not made the change?

Jeff Fritz

Management

No, we’re not going to do that, because we don’t want take -- there is two different numbers or two different earnings. But it's fair to say that particularly in this first quarter of adoption, it had a negative effect of the results.

Mitchell Sacks

Analyst

And then in the competition, you mentioned the two companies went away and there is three or four, I guess are on the ropes. Can you just give us a little bit more detail on what's going on there? And then in terms of the loans, the guaranteed back end loans. What is that effectively make their loan to values?

Charles Bradley

Management

In the first one, most of the PE money came in ’12 and ’13, so generally speaking five year windows, ’17 and ’18 becomes where you’re supposed to be out. So the problem is a lot of these guys came in back to these companies, made investments in these companies and they like to see a return. But part of the other problem is to the extent the company rule a little bit more than should have, didn’t quite have the controls in place and the results haven’t been what they want, even to the extent we didn’t make any money, you got a problem. So a lot of those folks out there today are facing that problem, whether its small companies, medium size companies or large companies. And seeing this at least from our point of view across the industry they all have the same problem. In that they try to put together this plan, the plan probably wasn’t execute quite as well as it should have and now they’re standing there with not great results in terms of losses and not great results in terms of earnings, and they’re trying to figure out what to do. And again, in past lives or cycles, we’ve been -- and we've seen how this works and it's difficult. I have huge amounts of pity for everybody who's facing that problem, because how you do, it is very difficult to get out of it, having your back or double down. So that's what's really going on with the companies. In terms of the guaranteed backend, and again we're not 100% sure everyone's doing it, but it's certainly out there on the street a whole lot of folks are. Generally speaking, the best we can figure it pushes the loan to value in the 130 to 140 range, which is something that never in the history of our world have we ever seen. Having said that probably everybody's not doing that and probably every loan is not like that, but when you're doing the fast math of claiming in -- if you think about it, if you're adding $2,000 or $3,000 in our world, our average amount finance is $16,000. So if you want to add $2,000 to that or $3,000 to that, you're talking about 15% and 20% right on top instead of extending here at 110-115, you're in the 130s probably for sure.

Mitchell Sacks

Analyst

And the final question, in terms of expenses with your portfolio running stable, I understand you're going to spend more on hiring more marketing people. But do you get any efficiencies on the backend in terms of servicing, or as people get -- you don't need to hire new people you can hit other than for churn, you start to get better yields from people servicing the loans that are existing?

Charles Bradley

Management

You probably don't. If you think about it, let's just say you pick a flat number. If we originate whatever the number is every month and the portfolio is growing then you're going to continue to add people to service those exact loans. Since our portfolio is shrinking, you probably get the benefit of not having to particularly add anybody just because you've got body standing there that are done servicing the loans running off and they can service the new loans coming as much as it doesn't work exactly like that. So we would expect that. What you really can't do too much off is you can't leverage the guys. The collectors need to service a certain amount of accounts and/or you need a certain amount of collectors to service a certain number of accounts, regardless of the dollar value of those accounts. And so as much as -- but the better way to do it is through technology where you were using more and more scoring, more and more credit scorecards to figure out which accounts we don't have to call at all, or call less and things like that, run better jobs for the collection crew. So you get more benefit and efficiencies from the technology, and actually the bodies, because again you need certain amount of bodies to collect a certain amount of loans. It's very hard. We think our collector ratio to accounts is probably one of the best in the industry anyway. So we probably don't want to toy with that too much. But again, to the extent we can find out ways to eliminate it or lower the amount of people we actually have to call then we get efficiencies that way, and/or to the extent we're using texting which we are and things like that, I think then you can find a way to how to compute, generate much of that stuff then that helps too.

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions]. And this does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Charles Bradley for any additional remarks.

Charles Bradley

Management

We think we must have answered much of the stuff upfront. So probably the last two, maybe a little bit to comprehend in terms of switching the fair value and maybe the industry comments. But it's going to be an interesting year. I think the good news is we're still up in a good way, we have collections going the right way, we have a good marketing strategy that doesn’t affect how we're going to buy and credit. And then as it happens in industries, there is lots going on out there, lots of folks have to make some decisions and then lot of people have tough decisions to make. Hopefully, we’ll get some opportunities out of all that. And more importantly, at the end of the day, we continue buying our stock. We think our stock is quite valuable. At the end of all this, we should hopefully see that show up and show some results. Thank you again. We’ll talk to you on next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. A replay will be available beginning two hours from now until April 26, 2018 at 11:00 PM Eastern Standard Time by dialing 855-859-2056 or 404-537-3406. The conference identification number 6382649. A broadcast of the conference call will also be available live and for 90 days after the call via the Company's Web site at www.consumerportfolio.com. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.