Tom Edwards
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please proceed
Thank you, John and good morning, everyone. Starting with fourth quarter, revenue of $1.2 billion was flat to last year significantly exceeding our expectations. Performance was driven by better-than-anticipated results across all brands and regions. Net income was $59 million resulting in diluted earnings per share of $0.38 this was above our expectations reflecting better-than-anticipated revenue and gross margin along with lower operating expenses. Looking at revenue trends by channel, total company retail sales increased 13%. These results were driven in part by robust e-commerce sales which increased approximately 80% and once again accelerated relative to the prior quarter. Additionally store performance improved significantly quarter-over-quarter driven by local clienteling initiatives and improved traffic trends. In the wholesale channel, revenue also improved sequentially. By geography, in Asia, retail sales increased double digits versus prior year. Once again, revenue in the region increased across all three of our luxury houses driven primarily by stronger growth in Mainland China, where sales were up over 100%. In the Americas, retail revenue increased double digits, despite store closures in Canada. Conversely, in EMEA, retail revenue trends remained negative as an average of 60% of our stores were closed during the quarter. Despite the increased restrictions and store closures in EMEA, retail sales trend improved sequentially driven by triple-digit increase in e-commerce. Turning to revenue performance by brand. Versace revenue was $235 million, representing a 10% increase to the prior year and above our expectation. Global sales in our retail channel increased double digits with e-commerce sales once again increasing triple digits. Sales in Asia grew double-digits driven by strong double-digit growth in Mainland China. The Americas was once again the best performing region with revenue up strong double-digit. Trends in EMEA remain below prior year impacted by increased restrictions and store closures. Versace ended March with a global luxury fleet of 210 retail stores, a net increase of four from prior year. For Jimmy Choo, revenue during the quarter increased 16% to $124 million also above expectations. Retail sales in Mainland China increased triple digits resulting in double-digit sales growth in the total Asia region. In the Americas, retail revenue increased in the low double digits. While in EMEA trends remain negative, but improved sequentially despite the increased restrictions and store closures. Jimmy Choo ended the quarter with a global fleet of 227 retail stores, a net increase of 1 from prior year. At Michael Kors total revenue of $838 million declined 4% compared to last year. Overall retail sales increased in the mid-teens significantly better than expectations, e-commerce sales growth accelerated sequentially increasing approximately 75%. Retail revenue in Mainland China increased triple-digit driving double-digit retail sales growth in the total Asia region. In the Americas, retail revenue increased double digits. In EMEA trends remain negative but improve sequentially despite the increased restrictions and store closures. For our Global Wholesale business, sales at retail and shipments both improved sequentially. However, overall shipments remain below prior year. Michael Kors ended the quarter with a global fleet of 820 retail stores, a net decrease of 19 from prior year. Now, looking at total Company margin performance. We were pleased with gross margin expansion of 280 basis points, which was significantly above our expectations. As John mentioned, gross margins expanded across all three of our luxury houses. This improvement primarily reflected increased full price sell-throughs and select price increases at Jimmy Choo and Michael Kors. These gains were partially offset by higher tariffs related to the expiration of the GSP trade program as well as increased transportation costs. Operating expense as a percent of revenue was 51.5% compared to 52.3% last year. Total Company operating expenses were modestly below prior year, reflecting our expense reduction initiatives, partially offset by higher foreign currency exchange rates and variable costs associated with increased retail revenue. As a result, total Company operating margin expanded 360 basis points to 11.9% compared to 8.3% in the prior year and was well ahead of our expectation. Looking at operating margin by brands. Versace's operating margin of 12.3% was above our expectations and improved over 1,000 basis points, reflecting both gross margin expansion and expense leverage. Jimmy Choo's operating margin of negative 14.5% reflects expense deleverage partially offset by gross margin expansion. Michael Kors operating margin of 20.5% was above our expectations and expanded 460 basis points over prior year reflecting higher gross margin and lower operating expenses. Our tax rate for the quarter was 59%, driven primarily by mix of income across different tax jurisdictions. Now, turning to our balance sheet. We ended the year with cash of $232 million and debt of $1.3 billion resulting in net debt of approximately $1.1 billion. We paid down approximately $70 million of debt during the quarter and approximately $850 million during the year. Total liquidity at the end of the year was $1.5 billion. Given our strong cash flow generation, we are exiting our covenant waiver and 364 day credit facility ahead of schedule. Additionally, we are now reinstating our share repurchase authorization which has $400 million of availability remaining. Looking at inventory, we ended the quarter with $736 million, down 11% compared to prior year. We expect to build inventory to support sales growth over the year. While we are seeing delays in receiving merchandise. The current situation is incorporated in our outlook for the year and we continue to work on initiatives to further mitigate transportation challenges. Capital expenditures for the year were $111 million and were primarily spent on new store development, renovations, IT, and e-commerce enhancements. Now, turning to fiscal 2022 guidance. Though it's not our normal practice, we believe it is important to lay out our view of the quarterly progression of revenue and earnings throughout fiscal 2022. We are doing this for two reasons. First, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on both revenue and expense comparison. Our forecast incorporates our expectations for the pieces of recovery on revenue as we move through the year as well as the amount and timing of expenses such as marketing and reopening costs. Second, as previously discussed, we have reset our business strategies and objectives. Most notably, we are planning for a smaller but more profitable Michael Kors business. As a result, we believe the most appropriate benchmark to evaluate our progress against our revised objectives is this forecast which we believe will provide a more accurate reflection of the success of our initiatives. For the full year, we forecast Capri Holdings revenue of approximately $5.1 billion. This includes approximately $75 million associated with the 53rd week and assumes Versace revenue of approximately $925 million to $975 million, Jimmy Choo revenue of approximately $500 million to $525 million and Michael Kors revenue of approximately $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion. For the first quarter, we forecast revenue of approximately $1.1 billion. We expect continued growth in the Americas and Asia region despite ongoing restrictions including store closures in Canada, Japan and Southeast Asia. In EMEA, we anticipate revenue will continue to be impacted by regional restrictions including store closure. Turning to the second quarter, we anticipate revenue of approximately $1.2 billion supported by reopening in EMEA, Canada, Japan and Southeast Asia. As we look to the second half, we are optimistic about a stronger recovery after vaccines are more widely distributed. All of our luxury houses should benefit as people begin to feel more comfortable returning to more normalized routines. In the third quarter, we expect revenue of approximately $1.4 billion. And for the fourth quarter, we anticipate revenue of approximately $1.4 billion. Now, let me talk about the remainder of the full year P&L. Starting with gross margin, for fiscal 2022, we continue to see underlying strength in our ability to expand gross margins through higher full price sell-throughs, select price increases at Jimmy Choo and Michael Kors as well as increased penetration of accessories at Versace and Jimmy Choo. As I previously noted, we are experiencing higher transportation costs. As a result, we now anticipate approximately 50 basis points of gross margin expansion year-over-year. Moving to operating expenses; we now expect operating expenses of approximately $2.6 billion. This includes the benefit of our COVID-related cost reduction initiatives. It also reflects higher variable expenses related to increased revenue, additional reinvestments in our business to accelerate growth, in particular, marketing as well as the impact of foreign currency exchange rates. Taken together, we anticipate Capri Holdings operating margin of approximately 14% reflecting year-over-year operating margin improvement across all brands. For Versace, we anticipate operating margin in the low-double-digit range. For Jimmy Choo, we expect operating margin in the negative mid-single-digit range due to continued expense deleverage. For Michael Kors, we anticipate operating margin in the low 20% range. Turning to our expectations around certain non-operating items. For fiscal 2022, we estimate net interest expense of approximately $20 million. Our effective tax rate is estimated to be approximately 15% and we forecast weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 156 million. As a result, for fiscal 2022, we expect to generate earnings per share of approximately $3.70 to $3.80. Turning to capital expenditures; we anticipate spending approximately $200 million in fiscal 2022 which includes store openings and remodel as well as IT expenditures including investments in our digital platform. Now I would like to discuss our non-GAAP charge expectations for fiscal 2022. We anticipate transformation expenses of approximately $20 million. Implementation costs for SAC of approximately $30 million and restructuring charges of approximately $70 million related to our fleet optimization program. Turning to our first quarter guidance. As I said earlier, we expect revenue of approximately $1.1 billion. This is since Versace revenue of approximately $220 million, Jimmy Choo revenue of approximately $110 million and Michael Kors revenue of approximately $770 million. For gross profit, we expect continued margin expansion in our retail channel. For the quarter, this improvement will be offset by higher wholesale penetration as shipments normalize. We expect wholesale penetration to nearly double to approximately 25% in the first quarter. Therefore we anticipate total company gross margin contraction of approximately 100 basis points in the first quarter compared to last year. Turning to operating expenses; we expect first quarter operating expenses to increase approximately $150 million year-over-year. This reflects the significant increase in revenue relative to last year, which is generating higher variable expenses. Additionally, it reflects reinvestment in our business as sales recover as well as the impact of foreign currency exchange rates. Taken together, we anticipate first quarter operating margin of approximately 12%. With Versace, we anticipate operating margin in the high single-digit range. For Jimmy Choo, we expect operating margin in the negative low to mid-teens range. For Michael Kors, we anticipate operating margin in the low 20% range. Now, looking at certain non-operating items. For the first quarter of fiscal 2022, we estimate net interest expense of approximately $5 million. Our effective tax rate is estimated to be approximately 9% and we assume weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 155 million. As a result, we anticipate first quarter earnings per share of approximately $0.75. Now, I would like to share our expectations around our quarterly earnings per share assumptions for the remainder of the year. Again, while this is not our normal practice, we thought it would be helpful to layout our view of the quarterly earnings progression through fiscal 2022 based on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the reset of our business strategies and objectives. For the second quarter, we anticipate earnings per share in the range of $0.70 to $0.75. For the third quarter, we expect earnings per share in the range of $1.65 to $1.70 and for the fourth quarter, we forecast earnings per share in the range of $0.55 to $0.60. Please note, this guidance does not incorporate any additional store closures or new government restrictions that could further impact our business. In summary, we believe the progression over our initiatives throughout fiscal 2022 positions Capri to deliver on its long-term goals. As we look beyond to fiscal 2023, we continue to anticipate revenue and earnings per share will exceed pre-pandemic levels. In conclusion, we are pleased with the trajectory of our business reflecting the strength of our fashion luxury houses and the execution of our strategy. Versace's results speak to the power of the brand and reinforce our confidence in the luxury houses long-term potential. Versace represents the largest growth opportunity for Capri Holdings as we continue to believe revenue will increase to $2 billion while operating margins expand to at least the mid-teens longer term. At Jimmy Choo, we are encouraged by the progress we are making toward our goal of growing revenue to $1 billion, while expanding operating margins to the mid-teens longer term. At Michael Kors, we are encouraged by the sequential improvement in revenue trends and continued gross margin expansion. Longer term, we remain confident in our ability to position Michael Kors as a smaller, more profitable business with revenue of $4 billion and operating margins of approximately 25%. Taken together, we believe Capri Holdings is well positioned to generate $7 billion in revenue with Versace and Jimmy Choo combined accounting for approximately 40% of revenue, and approximately one-third of total company earnings. As the world emerges from the pandemic, we remain confident that our three luxury houses position Capri Holdings to deliver multiple years of revenue and earnings growth, as well as increased shareholder value. We look forward to sharing more of our future outlook with you at our upcoming Investor Day on June 29. Now, we will open up the lines for questions.