Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) Q4 2025 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Copa Holdings Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on February 12, 2026. Now I will turn the conference call over to Daniel Tapia, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Thank you, Marvin, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter and full year earnings call. Joining me today are Mr. Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings; and Peter Donkersloot, our CFO. First, Pedro will go through our fourth quarter and full year highlights, followed by Peter, who will discuss our financial results in more detail. Immediately after, we will open the call for questions from analysts. As a reminder, Copa Holdings financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards. In today's call, we will discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to comparable IFRS measures can be found in our earnings release, which is available on our website. Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and/or intentions regarding future events and results. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC. Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I want to recognize our more than 8,000 coworkers. Their hard work and commitment are fundamental to Copa's strong operational performance and continued leadership in our industry. To them, as always, my sincere appreciation and respect. We delivered another quarter and full year of strong financial and operational results, reaffirming the strength of our business model and the structural advantage of operating the best positioned and most efficient hub for international travel in the Americas. Our results reflect strong demand trends across the region, continued discipline in our cost execution and our relentless focus on operational excellence. As a testament to our operational performance, in January, Copa Airlines was recognized by Cirium for the 11th time as the most on-time airline in Latin America in 2025, with an on-time performance of 90.75%, the highest of any carrier in the Americas and the second best in the world. Once again, I want to recognize our Copa team. Without their commitment and dedication, it will not be possible to consistently deliver this level of excellence, which our customers expect from us. Now I'll go over our fourth quarter highlights. We increased capacity by 9.9% year-over-year, while passenger traffic increased by 10.1%. As a result, our load factor increased 0.2 percentage points to 86.4%. RASM came in at $0.113 flat versus fourth quarter '24. We reported CASM of $0.088 and an ex-fuel CASM of $0.059 cents, a 1.6% and 0.7% year-over-year increase. respectively. Excluding a $7.2 million noncash adjustment to the provision for future lease return obligations, ex-fuel CASM for the quarter would have been $0.058. Operating margin came in at 21.8%. Excluding the noncash maintenance adjustment, we would have reported an operating margin of 22.5%. Turning now to the main highlights for the full year 2025. Capacity in ASMs grew 7.8% year-over-year, while passenger traffic measured in RPMs increased by 8.6%. As a result, our Load Factor increased 0.7 percentage points to 87%. Unit revenues or RASM decreased 2.6% to $0.112. Unit cost for CASM decreased 3.6% to $0.086 and CASM, excluding fuel, decreased 0.7% to $0.058. And as mentioned before, we delivered full year operating margin of 22.6%. Turning now to our network. Between December and January, we started service from our Hub of the Americas in Panama to Los Cabos, Mexico; Puerto Plata and Santiago in the Dominican Republic, Maracaibo in Venezuela and Salvador, Bahia in Brazil, further strengthening our position as the most complete and convenient connecting hub for travel within the Americas. Regarding our fleet, during the quarter, we took delivery of 4 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and ended the year with a total of 125 aircraft. Earlier this year, Boeing updated the fleet delivery schedule for 2026, and we now anticipate adding 8 Boeing 737 MAX 8 this year and now expect to end the year with a total fleet of 133 aircraft. We continue to see a strong demand environment across our network as we enter 2026. Booking trends remain solid, supported by healthy travel activity throughout the region, which allow us to leverage the advantages of our Hub of the Americas. The current demand environment gives us confidence in our growth plan and reinforces the foundation for another year of strong margins in 2026. Consistent with the guidance shared in our earnings release, we expect to grow capacity in the range of 11% to 13% in the year. As detailed in December at our Investor Day, approximately half of the growth is the full year impact of capacity added in 2025 with an additional 40% coming from added frequencies in existing markets and the remaining 10% from new destinations. To summarize, we delivered strong fourth quarter and full year results for 2025. Copa was recognized for the 11th time by Cirium as the most on-time airline in Latin America and second best in the world. We continue to improve our already low and competitive cost structure, which remains a core pillar of our business model. We continue expanding our network, adding frequencies and new cities to our Hub of the Americas, and we're well positioned to deliver another year of profitable growth and strong margins in 2026. Now I'll turn the call over to Peter, who will walk us through the financials in more detail.

Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call today. I'd like to start by reinforcing Pedro's recognition of our team's continued dedication to delivering industry-leading results. Their commitment remains essential to our strong operational and financial performance. Let me begin by going over the fourth quarter highlights. We reported a net profit for the quarter of $172.6 million or $4.18 per share, a 5.3% increase in earnings per share compared to fourth quarter 2024. Operating profit came in at $209.6 million, and we delivered an operating margin of 21.8% for the quarter. I would like to highlight that our fourth quarter results include a $7.2 million noncash adjustment in the maintenance, material and repairs line related to the provision for future lease aircraft return obligation. This adjustment was driven by a reduction in the discount rate used to calculate the present value of expected end of lease costs as the applicable reference rate declined during the period. Additionally, during the quarter, we reported a foreign currency loss of $6 million, mainly related as a result of the devaluation of the Brazil real, which has since recovered in early 2026. Excluding these 2 items, we would have reported a net profit for the quarter of $184.1 million or $4.46 per share, and we would have reported an operating profit of $216.8 million and an operating margin of 22.5%. With regards to our costs for the quarter, unit cost or CASM decreased 1.6% year-over-year to $0.088 and CASM, excluding fuel, increased 0.7% year-over-year to $0.059. Excluding the noncash maintenance-related adjustment, we would have reported an ex-fuel CASM of $0.058 flat year-over-year. Moving on to our full year 2025 financial highlights. We reported a net profit of $671.6 million or $16.28 per share, which represented an 11.9% year-over-year increase in earnings per share. Operating income reached $819 million, 8.8% higher year-over-year. Operating margins came in at 22.6%, 0.8 percentage points higher than in 2024. Our consistent delivery of industry-leading operating margins underscores the strength of our business model and disciplined execution. Now I'd like to spend some time discussing our balance sheet and liquidity. As of the end of the fourth quarter, total cash, short-term and long-term investments stood at $1.6 billion, representing 44% of last 12-month revenues. Further demonstrating our financial strength and flexibility, we also have approximately $500 million in predelivery deposits, and we currently have 47 unencumbered aircraft in our fleet. Total debt stood at $2.3 billion, and we ended the quarter with an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6x, reflecting our strong financial position. I'd like to highlight that our average cost of debt comprised solely of aircraft-related financing remains at a highly competitive at 3.6% Turning now to return of value to our shareholders. I am pleased to announce that for 2026, the Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend payment of $1.71 per share to be paid in March, June, September and December, subject to Board ratification each quarter. The first quarterly payment will be made on March 13 to all shareholders of record as of February 27. Finally, turning to our outlook, we can provide the following guidance for the full year 2026. We expect to increase our capacity in ASMs within a range of 11% to 13% year-over-year. And as Pedro shared earlier, around 90% of this growth comes from the full year impact of capacity added in 2025 in additional frequencies and existing markets and we expect to deliver an operating margin within the range of 22% to 24%. We are basing our outlook on the following assumptions: load factor of approximately 87%, unit revenues of approximately $0.112, CASM ex-fuel of approximately $0.057, consistent with our long-term target of delivering a CASM ex-fuel of $0.056 by 2028, and we're expecting an all-in fuel price of $2.50 per gallon. Thank you, and we'll now open the call for questions from the analysts.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Savi Syth of Raymond James.

Just wondering if you could -- with the developments in Venezuela, just talk about if there was any demand impact in the region and then what your service there is and kind of the view for that?

Okay. Savi, we're back flying to Venezuela, of course. And actually, we only exited the market for a short period. We are flying twice daily to Caracas, and we're also flying to Maracaibo which is almost daily, a little bit less than daily. Before we had to stop flying to Venezuela last year, we were serving 5 cities. And we expect to go back to those cities gradually. It won't happen right away, but we'll be adding capacity throughout 2026.

That's helpful. And if I might, you mentioned announced offering Wi-Fi. Have you chosen a provider? And is that you're going to be -- is that for paid Wi-Fi or free or any kind of thoughts on how you provide the Wi-Fi service?

Yes. We have chosen a provider. We haven't made it public yet. We'll do so. I think in April, end of April, we'll make it public, but we are confident that our product is going to satisfy all the needs and expectations of our clients.

Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

I wanted to ask you about stronger local currencies. Currencies move, maybe people don't feel it right away. But over time, purchasing power improves and you might see some demand pickup in relation to that in some of the markets that you serve. So I wonder, are you seeing any early improvement from stronger local currencies in some of your markets?

Correct. Yes. So yes, 2 answers to that. And we've talked about this before in previous calls. And we've always said, and it holds true today that we do better when currencies are stronger in South America, in particular. And yes, we're seeing improved demand and better yields as a result of the stronger currencies right now.

Okay. And then maybe just as a follow-up with respect to your full year guidance, which I think assumes flattish unit revenue. Is that what you're seeing now? Or are you starting the year stronger than flattish?

Well, we are guiding for the full year. And the first quarter is usually a strong quarter. The first and third -- I mean, all of -- our 4 quarters are strong, of course. We don't have the huge seasonal swings. But quarter 1 and quarter 3 are usually the strongest and quarter 1 lately has been the strongest quarter. So of course, we're seeing stronger numbers, but we're guiding for the full year, and it's really early. So we are standing by our RASM guidance. And we're also adding double-digit capacity this year. So we take that into account also.

Our next question comes from the line of Guilherme Mendes of JPMorgan.

I have a follow-up on the RASM guidance. We were positively surprised to see the flattish numbers despite of the increase in capacity and the more appreciated local currencies. Pedro, do you mind sharing more details on what's behind that assumption?

Yes. It's a few things. Of course, we're confident on our demand outlook right now, and that is behind our RASM guidance. But also, there are a few other factors. One is that 50% of that ASM growth in 2026 is the full year effect of our growth in 2025. So that has already spooled up most of it. Another 40% is new frequencies, which are going to go mostly or all of it in markets where we need additional capacity. And we need to keep in mind also that we've been catching up in terms of Boeing deliveries. Now we're getting the deliveries that we need and that have been promised. But in previous years, in particular, in 2024 and 2023, we were behind quite a bit in deliveries. So we also had some catch-up to do in markets that, in many cases, are unique to us and where we were not able to deploy enough capacity.

Our next question comes from the line of Filipe Nielsen of Citi.

I wanted to explore in a little more detail the guidance on the cost side. I remember in the third quarter, you guided for CASM ex-fuel between $0.057 and $0.058. And now you're assuming a $0.057 in the guidance. Just wondering if there are any factors that made you a little more optimistic about targeting the lower range of the previous guidance? And how do you see this CASM ex evolving throughout the year?

Thank you, Filipe. This is Peter. So for 2025, we reported a CASM ex fuel of $0.058 but of course, we report 1 decimal. When you look at the full number and you add a couple of decimals, you see we would be close to the middle of the range between $0.057 and $0.058. So that also gives us confidence for the $0.057. And we have a lot of initiatives, some going on and some new initiatives, like we talked about the full year effect of the sales and distribution that still has some extra savings to come in. We got a full year effect of some densification projects that are going in. We got a growth, 11% to 13% growth the fixed cost. And we also have new initiatives that we're working on. And despite the fact that none of them make the headlines, the combinations of all these initiatives do add a couple of additional points. So I would say what's embedded in the guidance is all those initiatives, slightly offset by some inflation and some FX headwinds that we're seeing.

Great. And just one follow-up. I just wanted to hear a little more from you. How do you see capacity evolving on a quarter-by-quarter basis? We know that there's some carry from the deliveries that you took late last year. Just wondering how -- if we should see stronger growth in the first half of the year and then moderating in the second half. Maybe if you give a little color on that.

Yes, you're right. As most of the -- 50% of the capacity comes from full year effect of last year's deliveries and service we launched, it is slightly front-loaded. So we are going to see being more above the range in the first half and then slightly on the lower end of the range in the second half.

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank.

Pedro, just on the Venezuela service, when you listed the markets, does that actually include Wingo? And I have sort of a question tied to Wingo on how you see that business this year. Is it sort of steady on the fleet size? Or is there potential growth in 2026 at Wingo?

Okay. So sorry for that, and sorry to our Wingo co-workers. I left Wingo out. Wingo has gone back in with their own daily frequencies from Bogotá to Caracas, and they'll be implementing -- restarting Medellín to Caracas in the very near future. So I did not include Wingo. Wingo received a 10 737-800 in the second half of last year. And then they went through a number of C-checks. So they had to use that aircraft as backup for the C-check. So we'll see the impact of their 10 aircraft this year. But otherwise, it's stable. Wingo won't be growing much this year, and they'll continue in that same path we saw last year.

Great. And then just a quick second one here, Pedro. I know that Cuba is not the biggest market for you, but you've always had long-standing service there. We're seeing a lot of international carriers either cut the service or maybe being forced to make tech stops. Can you -- do you have the ability to fly in with enough fuel from Panama City, so you do not have to make a tech stop on a round-trip flight to Cuba? Where are you on that?

Yes. Thank you, Mike. Given that Panama is sea level and the distance from here to Cuba to Havana, we fly to 2 cities, but mostly to Havana. We can tanker in Panama and not take any fuel in Cuba, and that's what we're doing with a minimal impact to our passenger capacity. So we do have to reduce the number of passengers for very little. I think it's by 10 or 15, something like that passenger. And then we're holding back from sending belly cargo. So those are the 2 things, the 2 adjustments to be able to tanker in Panama. Then Wingo, I won't miss Wingo this time. Wingo flights from Bogotá to Havana, and they need to make a tech stop in somewhere in Colombia in Barranquilla, which is sea level. And that's because Bogotá is hot and high, so they make a stop in Barranquillia sea level.

Our next question comes from the line of Rafael Simonetti of UBS VB.

It's a simple question regarding the share with Volaris. I wanted to know if the partnership remains with the potential deal between Volaris and Viva.

Yes. Well, our code share with Volaris started in November. So still spooling up. And we haven't really addressed the Volaris, Viva merger. At least I'm not aware that we have addressed that. We expect the code share to continue. And in any case, it's not going to be a significant part of our business.

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global.

Pedro, I'm wondering if you can provide some partner perspective. So either the percent of revenue or the volume of passengers from your partners in 2025 versus what it was, say, pre-pandemic. And what I'm trying to get at is how big a piece of the revenue story are the portfolio of partners? Is it more than 10%, less than 10%? Anything you can share?

Yes, that's not a number we share. But what I can say is that our numbers are not above pre-pandemic. If anything, they are below or slightly below. Our main partner, of course, is United. We quote share in many U.S. routes, and we're also partners in Star Alliance, but we had a partnership even before that. And that partnership is healthy, is strong. And well, United is doing extremely well themselves. So we know that. But no, the numbers have not changed and have not grown really pre -- I mean, post pandemic.

Yes. United definitely a healthy partner. Okay. Second question here, just going back to Venezuela. As you think about the risk/reward of the country as part of the network, and I'm wondering what its size as a percent of overall flying could ultimately look like, say, in 2 to 3 years.

Well of course, we have been born and raised in the middle of Latin America. So there's something we know how to do. It's how to deal with changing situations, crisis of every kind. We've proven to be very resilient in every market we serve. And I think we were the better airline managing this whole Venezuela crisis that's taken quite a while. And we're also very loyal to the countries and cities we serve because we're loyal to our passengers, and we understand the importance of the connectivity we provide through the Hub of the Americas in Panama. And sorry for this promo ad, but we're confident that we're managing capacity the right way that we understand the market and that we're going to be there in the future in a successful way. But along the way, we might need to make adjustments. And that's kind of part of our day-to-day in Latin America, making adjustment. And we have enough opportunities to move around capacity. Right now, it's from other markets to Venezuela before it was from Venezuela to other markets. And we have continued returning strong demand, even though we always have to make those adjustments. It's kind of our daily living and the team, this is not like -- I don't have the magic one, but we have a team that knows how to deal with changing times and changing situations.

Our next question comes from the line of Pablo Monsivais of Barclays.

Again, on Venezuela, is any of this destination included differently in this year guidance? Or it's just basically business as usual now? Just wanted to understand if perhaps if things improve in Venezuela, we might see some upside there or probably we will have some incremental cost if you're thinking about expanding Venezuela at some point this year. So I just wanted to understand the impact of Venezuela in your guidance on the unit cost.

Yes. Thank you, Pablo. It's not material. I mean it's -- we're not guiding to Venezuela changing our results. There won't be any material changes either way. I mean there could be upside, of course, but not what we're expecting right now. We're expecting our service to Venezuela to be very similar to the rest of the things we do throughout our network. And if we grow there, we grow in another market, it won't change our guidance in a significant way.

Perfect. And if I can add one follow-up. Just out of curiosity, have you seen any interesting trends on the World Cup this year for the summer?

Yes. Well, that's an interesting topic because World Cups in our region don't happen even every 4 years. So demand patterns are going to change due to the World Cup, and it's going to be different to what we're used to dealing with. And we're working hard to try to minimize the potential surprises from flights being very full in one direction, maybe not in the other. And then passengers that were going to have vacation in Cancún or Punta Cana, now they're going to go to the World Cup in the U.S. or Mexico or Canada. So all of those changing patterns are a challenge to deal with. And we have a team working on that right now. We will fly extra sections to Toronto, where Panama is playing its first 2 games. Our third game is in New York. Not sure where we'll play after that if we qualify and keep on moving. Not sure where the finals are in New York. So hopefully, we'll be there. But we have -- let's not laugh. We never know. But of course, the other teams are the favorites. So I'm not changing that. The favorites are very strong. So anyway, we will have extra sections, quite a number of extra sections to Toronto. And then we are managing the rest of the network in the best possible way. And hopefully, on the final, at least, even if it's not Panama, there are 2 countries that we serve. That will be fantastic.

Our next question comes from the line of Jens Spiess of Morgan Stanley.

So we have noticed that you are planning to increase capacity in Argentina and actually reducing a bit of capacity in Colombia. So I have like a 2-part question here. First, if you could please comment on like the demand dynamics you're seeing in both of those countries. I think you already alluded a bit on Colombia, but also interesting to see what you're seeing in Argentina and how excited you're about those routes and demand in that market? And secondly, considering like how nimbly you're allocating capacity, is it maybe fair to assume that all else equal, your load factor guidance is actually conservative, just putting that out.

Okay. I'll start with the second one first because some team members, especially from the commercial department are here on the call, and they already feel challenged by our goals. So we think -- our guidance tends to be realistic. And that we are always very close to guidance year in and year out because we make it realistic and it's the same guidance that our team has and a chunk of their compensation is based on us reaching those goals. So everything is well aligned. And for that reason, we need to be realistic. So I would say our guidance are realistic. And when there's upside, it's because there are other external factors that made tailwinds that make things easier. So once in a while, that happens, of course. In terms of Colombia and Argentina, I should say that right now, all of our markets are looking well. Argentina is fine. Of course, it's not as strong as a year ago because as I mentioned in the previous call, a lot of capacity came in during 2025, but it's still a very strong market. It's still doing well only that year-over-year, there's a lot more capacity from everyone. But we're doing well in Argentina. We serve a number of cities. Our new cities, which started last year are doing well, too. So -- and Colombia is also doing okay also.

Our next question comes from the line of Rogério Araújo of Bank of America. Rogério Araújo: I have a couple here. First one, you already mentioned that the local currencies have been supporting yields. Is this the only reason why Copper had expectations for a flat RASM despite of a double-digit capacity expansion? Or in your view, there are other strengths in the region that could explain that or maybe some supply rationality. If you could give some color on that? That's my first one.

Yes. The currency -- the potential currency strength or tailwind is not something that we're banking on for the full year. We know the volatility of our currencies -- well, a lot of currencies in our region. And when we put together our growth plan, currencies were not as strong as they are right now. So no, that's not -- it's not only not part of the plan. It could be a windfall. It could be -- it's a tailwind right now, but it's not what we're betting on for growth or for having a strong year. Rogério Araújo: Okay. Perfect. And also, it felt to me a little bit challenging on arriving to the CASM ex-fuel guidance, looking at my model and playing with the variables. So any color you could provide on which lines we could reduce further or that you see more opportunities? Anything you could share here would be greatly appreciated as well.

Thank you. I thank you for the question. This is Peter again. I would say that our guidance, what has embedded is some benefit for the growth. So those lines that are fixed or semi-fixed, we will see a better benefit, part of the salary wages and benefits, that part that is not operational driven. And we're very disciplined to not grow overhead in the same line that we grow capacity. So we're going to see some benefits in there. And we should be able to see additional benefits in the sales and distribution. So I think if I would call out, I would say those were 2 particular lines that we could call out right now.

And our next question comes from the line of Guilherme Mendes of JPMorgan.

But the second one is regarding the buyback program. Peter, if you could remind us where you are on the buyback program, how much you have executed so far?

Thank you, Guilherme. We have the buyback program approved by the Board of $200 million. We have executed more or less half of it. And we have the other half remaining open. No one dates in place. And whenever we do finalize it, we ask for a new one.

And our last question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio of UBS.

My question comes from Brazil here, we heard that there is a project to suspend the Law 400 in Brazil, which would be good for the airlines in terms of lawsuits from the consumers to the airline. I would like to see if you already see any positive impact on the liabilities of Copa with the Brazilian consumers. And if they get approval this Resolution 400, what we can see in terms of upside to the future?

Yes. Thanks, Alberto. So the impact, it's going to be on cost, of course. And many might not be aware of this, but I think something close to like 90% of passenger/consumer losses in the world come out of Brazil. And so that's going to be welcomed by the industry because the numbers just don't make sense and are not fair to airlines or to the reality of our industry. So there will be cost savings from that if it does pass.

Pedro. If I'm not mistaken, it's already suspended, isn't it? You are not being charged for the lawsuits since the end of last year. You correct me if you're wrong. You have any impact already from this or not?

Well, we have the impact from the lawsuits. We all have the impact from the lawsuits. So is that -- I mean, to be transparent, I'm not very familiar with the specifics of the law, the resolution and what's going to change. Of course, I'm aware of it, and it's been discussed, but one of those things that I want to see it to believe it. So it will be a positive. I haven't been very involved in the details of it, but it will be really important for the industry. It will be very positive. And especially it will be fair to the industry. And it will result in savings, of course.

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn it back to Pedro Heilbron for closing remarks.

Thank you. So thank you all. This concludes our earnings call. Of course, thank you for being with us. And as always, thank you for your continued support. Have a great day.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.