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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 27, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Leo and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to CPKC’s Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. The slides accompanying today’s call are available at investor.cpkcr.com. All lines have been placed in mute to prevent any background noise. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce Chris de Bruyn, Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer to begin the conference.

Chris de Bruyn

Analyst

Thank you, Leo. Good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I want to remind you this presentation contains forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially. The risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could influence actual results are described on Slide 2 in the press release and in the MD&A filed with Canadian and U.S. regulators. This presentation also contain non-GAAP measures outlined on Slide 3. Please note in addition to our regulated quarterly financials there are supplemental -- combined and operating performance data available at investor.cpkcr.com which some of today’s discussion we’ll focus on. With me here today is Keith Creel, President and Chief Executive Officer; Nadeem Velani, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John Brooks, our Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer; and Mark Redd, our Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer. Formal remarks will be followed by Q&A. In the interest of time, we would appreciate if you limit your questions to one. It is now my pleasure to introduce our President and CEO, Mr. Keith Creel.

Keith Creel

Analyst

Hey thanks Chris and good afternoon. Let me start by thanking our CPKC family of rail orders across all of North America that has been hard working in bringing these two companies together, so that our customers and [Indiscernible] each other. You can imagine the quantum of work has been monumental, now the effort against the quantum the work has been inspiring. So let’s take a look at the results from the quarter. In the second quarter, we produced revenues of $3.2 billion and operating ratio of 64.6% and core EPS of $0.83. We saw volumes down 5% in the quarter, head count up 6% versus last year, so no doubt, a challenging quarter as we dealt with the softer demand environment that John's going to speak more about that in a few moments. Now despite the challenges in the quarter, as we stated in our press release, we continued to expect to deliver on the guidance that we laid out at our investor day. Let me spent a few moments talking about some of the early wins, so looking where we stand today, we're just over 105 days old, forever into this combination, but I'm extremely proud of the work this team has done to get us to the point and what we've accomplished so far. Now first and foremost, a seamless transition operationally, and combining the two networks which is no small feat, but think in historical terms, it's refreshing to see the results versus most merger histories, but understandably, based on those histories, there's been no shortage of skeptics that pointed to an industry with the history of merger related services challenges. As I said, we would, we’ve taken a realistic and measured prudent approach and more humble approach to bring these two networks together and its…

Mark Redd

Analyst

All right. Thank you, Keith, and good afternoon. I'd like to start by thinking to CPKC operating professionals who continue to work tirelessly to deliver best and classy performance, or delivering on our service to members to our customers. As John would have discussed the long-term opportunities in the pipeline, not to use them working closely with the marketing and asset management team to evaluate and onboard new business updates within our network. Turning to our safety performance in the quarter, I'm pleased to report that, during the first quarter, as a combined company, CPKC, we continue to build upon its industry-leading lowest-trained accident frequency which declined at 48% to a 0.79 comparable to Q2 at a 1.51. From a personal injury perspective, our Q2 FRA reportable personal injury rate increased to 25% to a 1.25. It's just a continuing reminder that safety is on-going journey. We still have a lot of work to do in that space. Safety and leadership development is critical to CPKC success. It would continue to be it would continue to be a key area of focus. In the first 90 days we have rolled out our Home Safe program across our CP or CPKC U.S. property and we are now in the process of introducing it in Mexico. Home Safe is an initiative designed to build on the safety culture by tapping into the human side of safety but also promoting both safety engagement and feedback. We launched Home Safe back in 2016 back on CP property to help drive record improvements in the reduction of personal injuries across our system. This program along with our safety walkabouts where we directly engage with our employees across the property is essential to building strong consistent safety culture across the entire network. Safety has been and…

John Brooks

Analyst

All right. Thank you Mark, and good afternoon, everyone. So as Keith said, we're just over 100 days in CPKC. I'll tell you, I'm extremely proud of the work my team has done to begin to capture and deliver the growth that this new French franchise will undoubtedly unlock. And while we are certainly not immune to the broader economic headwinds and supply chain challenges, our unique business and self-help initiatives continue to serve us well compared to the industry and put us in a strong position as the volume environment recovers. Now looking at our second quarter results, on a reported basis versus CP standalone in 2022, total revenues were up 44% on the quarter while volumes were up 24%. On a combined basis, CPKC saw total revenue grow 2% while volumes declined 5% versus pro forma CPKC a year ago. FX was a 4% tailwind and fuel was a 3% headwind on the quarter. The pricing environment continues to be in line with expectations with inflation plus renewals across our book of business. Now we'll take a closer look at our second quarter revenue performance. I'll speak to the FX adjusted results on a comparison versus CPKC had this combination occurred in 2022. Grain volumes were down 5% on the quarter, revenues were down 2%. Canadian grain volumes were strong on a year-over-year basis, driven by an improved harvest for the 2022-23 crop year. However, that volume was offset by stronger or softer demand for U.S. grain driven by the challenging year-over-year comps we faced by moving a lot of corn out of the U.S. into Western Canada due to the drought. As we move into this year's harvest, I expect our grain franchise to return to growth. On the potash front, volumes and revenue were down 18%…

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

Great. Thanks John and good afternoon. I'd also like to thank the entire CPKC team for their works and dedication to bring these two companies together. Although it was a challenging quarter financially, I am very proud of the progress that we have made and extremely excited about the path ahead for the combined CPKC family. Looking at the quarter, CPKC's reported operating ratio was 70.3% and the core adjusted combined operating ratio came in at 64.6%. Earnings per share was $1.42 and core adjusted combined earnings for share was $0.83. Taking a closer look at a few items on the expense side, I'll speak both to the reported operating expense on slide 14 and the combined operating expense on slide 15, a combined operating expense illustrates the estimated effects of the acquisition for the second quarter as if the acquisition closed on January 1, 2022. Reporting comp and benefits expense was $659 million or $690 million on a combined basis up 26% on an FX adjusted basis. This quarter's comp and benefits expenses with acquisition related costs of $63 million which have been excluded on a core adjusted basis. The year-over-year results on an adjusted and combined basis include increased share base and incentive compensation driven primarily by higher stock price. Wage inflation and higher teen head count also drove the year-over-year increase. As I mentioned at investor day, we've re-sourced appropriately or expected volume growth starting in the back half of 2023. Given some of the shorter term volume headwinds, we're carrying surplus headcount and incurring additional expense in the quarter. However, as a growth comes on in the second half and into 2024 we will be prepared to handle it strong incremental margins. Comp and benefit increases were partially offset by lower current service costs in the…

Keith Creel

Analyst

Thanks, John, Mark, and Nadeem. Why don't we spend the rest of our time taking questions. Operator, if you could open up the line.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter

Analyst

Great. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking the question. Maybe Nadeem, you ran through a lot of numbers there and obviously a lot on the combined accounting here. Maybe just talk about the cost side. It looks like costs got maybe a little bloated here, and I want to understand you kind of gave the purchase services and kind of run rate there. Maybe just your thoughts on how we should think about that in the back half in terms of what costs are coming out, especially as you look at things like casualty expense. It was a little elevated. Are there things going on in the blended network now you look and you can see ways to continue to take expenses out and what we can see near term in that blended? Thanks.

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Ken. So casualty, we faced a couple of one-time items. I would characterize two in a book, $45 million. One was a litigation settlement, and one was a very expensive derailment that added to it. So part of the reason why I say more normalized number, about $530 million, is these aren't things that are going to occur on a quarter basis. So we feel very confident that purchase services and other will come down to a more normalized $530 million. Certainly we're in the early stages of cost takeout from a synergy point of view. We're in this for the long game. So as we mentioned, we've hired. Certainly the macro environment, the volume backdrop, wasn't as strong as we expected, and kind of hit us by surprise. That being said, we were going to take a short-term view and take headcount down just to kind of mitigate it, knowing what we have in the back half of the year, certainly on the bulk side and some of the market share gains that John mentioned. And then as we enter 2024, what we have in front of us and then the natural macro recovery as we expect. So we see a strong path to volume recovery in the back half and in Q4, the high single digit. So we're long people right now, short term, but it's the right choice to make to maintain that level of people. It takes a long time to hire and train, to also attract and retain employees. And so it elevated our costs, there's no doubt. With the volumes that we had, labour being up 5%, that delta is at its peak. It will normalize as we get through the back half of the year. I expect labour to almost be flat to slightly down year-over-year and volumes to inflect a positive high single digit. So you'll see a much better expense and productivity performance in the back half of the year.

Keith Creel

Analyst

Yes, if I could add a little bit of color to that, Ken, you used the word bloated. I wouldn't say bloated. I'd say that we had the one timers that Nadeem spoke to. But above that, hearing the headcount, that was an intentional decision. It's a timing issue. Obviously, if we'd have known this softness would have been here, perhaps we would have hired a little bit later and trained a little bit later. But nevertheless, we have very unique growth opportunities that are counter to the macro environment. They give us great confidence that it doesn't make a lot of sense to lay a lot of employees off, the risk of losing them and not having them four weeks from now, five weeks from now, when you've got potash moving, very strong demand. You've got the harvest that's came in and we've got some of these health initiatives that we've talked about coming online. John hasn't gotten to a lot of detail, but there's some pretty exciting business share shift wins that we're going to start benefiting from in August that's going to help cover some of those intentional costs that we carried. The other point I would say on the operational front, Mark and team has -- we said this in the beginning, we're going to make sure we get the U.S. network and the Canadian network stabilized. We've done that. Now we're turning our attention to Mexico. If you look at Mexico and the numbers, you see the same numbers I see. There's a lot of opportunity for some improvements in Mexico in the way we serve our customer, the way we control our costs, the way we manage the business. So in preparation for that, effectively, actually next week, we've got John or -- and a team of about 50, 55 officers that are going to go to two locations in Mexico and plant themselves there from a holistic business approach standpoint, from the commercial side, from the customer or transactional side, the operational side. So we're going to spend a lot of time with our brothers and sisters and family members in Mexico, getting that operation to a point that at the end, I fully intend and expect to see our velocity improve, our train speed improve, some of those costs that are tied to excessive car dwell indoor. Not getting it to where it needs to be is going to be able to complement the productivity we're already starting to see in the locomotive side that Mark and the team are producing. So more to come on that, but certainly, again, if loaded is not the right word, I would say intentional and expect more improvement over this next quarter as we start to realize the benefit of those initiatives.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

Tom Wadewitz

Analyst

Yes, thanks. Good afternoon. Maybe, John, I could ask you a question just in terms of kind of demand framework. We're generally hearing from I think transports and the other railroads about caution on, market conditions, maybe intermodal improvement being pushed into next year, maybe forced products, so some areas of weakness and chemicals. How do we kind of think about the, I guess, impact of that underlying weakness or your optimism on that relative to some of the things you're talking about that obviously are, maybe idiosyncratic good news or maybe on the bulk side? So just kind of trying to figure out how to think about the combination of those two and volume look and, like 3Q and beyond that.

Keith Creel

Analyst

Yes, no, thanks, Tom. So, yes, there's no doubt. I think we're in the same boat as what you've heard from the other rails in terms of the intermodal business. I'll tell you, we saw sort of our valley or trough point the last half of April, beginning of May, but on a week-over-week basis, we've started to actually see a little bit of improvement. Frankly, if you look at legacy CP, legacy KPF, the combined companies over these last eight to ten weeks, again, not a very hockey stick looking improvement, but at least the numbers are starting to improve a little bit. I do believe a certain amount of that is self-help, Tom. I've got the team, I'll tell you right now. We are on a three-week blitz, over 3,000 cold calls. We've got boots on the ground, we're blitzing all our major territories. We're not sitting idle. I do see the intermodal challenges persisting, but we're going to make self-help. We've got the fastest intermodal service in our north-south superhighway. We're going to continue to put more footage on that train. Mark’s been giving me a hard time that the trains are too small, and the mandate is the team to go out there and add business to that. I see upside opportunity, Tom, as you think about the automotive business. There's a lot of vehicles that remain on the ground down in Mexico, and we are working closely with those OEMs to create new solutions that I think initially we felt were long-term plays, but I think there's some opportunities there, given the situation, where we're going to see some benefit in the near term with some of those opportunities. Our frac stand business continues to be strong. Our steel business, as I spoke to, is…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Walter Spracklin of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Walter Spracklin

Analyst

Thanks very much, Operator. Good afternoon, everyone. So, I wanted to focus in on bulk, but, John you highlighted a few things that have happened in your key franchise within bulk that have created a lot of volatility here and, in particular, the outage at Teck Mine and the outage at Canpotex’s Terminal. We've also seen a pretty significant crop this year that now the conditions look a little less favorable for next year. So, I'm trying to put it all together here to see what the layout for next year looks like given some of those significant outages. Is it possible that we see kind of high single digit, low double digit increases in your coal and potash business just based on simply lapping those outages and on the flip side, do you see the crop that's developing from where we are now, is just a risk of kind of high single digit downside risk on the crop side for as we go to 2024, big items here in your bulk franchise lots going on, just wanted to make sure we're modeling it correctly.

John Brooks

Analyst

Yes, Walter, it has been noisy and its six months ago. If you would have said all that would transpire in our both franchise, I wouldn't have believed yet. At all it's been frustrating. But nonetheless look, as I said, I remained very bullish on the outlook for potash. We've actually got a very big plan for Q4. We've worked our tails off to diversify some of the ports, we're crossing our fingers that maybe Portland can get opened a little early, and I think our belief in frankly, Canpotex’s belief around their position and our CPKC is being their number one transportation provider, looks strong for 2024. So I would expect, I think, double digit, if you looked at 2024, given what we've seen is definitely a reasonable expectation, if you think about potash. On the coal side, we're going to see strong compares to close out the year. That LPO mine issue that took place Q4, right at the end of Q3, Q4. Last year, will give us a really good comps. And as you look to 2024, I don't know if you see as big as a jump as it relates in that space. But, we're optimistic that Tex outlook, or at least our discussions with tech so far, next, looking next year look to be the positive in terms of growth, probably not as extensive as he described relative to potash. And in on the grain front, now look, if this crop comes in closer to 65 million metric tons, what I think is kind of the middle point of what our customers are saying. You got to remember, we've got a much bigger carry in this year, call it maybe post a 10 million metric tons. So I really don't see any impact as you…

Keith Creel

Analyst

And John, if I could add just one key point is from the operational side it's allowed us to open up the engineering work when there’s a bit more West to Calgary. So when we do get it into Q3, Q4 we won't have maintenance game in a way so we can cycle this grain fold a certainly potash to the west coast.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Wetherbee of Citi.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon. Was wondering if you could maybe kind of run through some of the assumptions around a mid-single-digit EPS growth for the year, particularly in the back half, maybe get a sense of so -- the pace of RTM recovery in the back half, and then maybe some thoughts around the operating ratio, and it's even possible.

Keith Creel

Analyst

Well, if you think about the Chris, the RTM piece, as we sit here today, end of July we remain slightly positive on a full year RTM basis. We got ourselves dug into a quite a whole year in July with the strike, but I think you're going to see, and my expectation is we're going to claw our way back, as we move through the quarter, and certainly I expect improvement -- for where we fit today, and then there's upside as we think about Q4. So, I think ultimately, we see volume growth.

John Brooks

Analyst

And so Chris just in terms of, when we think about sequential OR and earnings, given we see a stronger Q4 as we get some of the, the snare wins and the synergies start getting to their full run rate, the first year the synergies, Q4, we see a much larger performance than Q3, for example. But sequentially, certainly we see a improvement in the OR, especially from Q2. I think Q4 is going to be the breakout order, and I think it's up well for 2024. But we have confidence in that single digit EPS guide that was, we wouldn't, we wouldn't have kept it there and reiterated it. I think we just have, some catch up to do from the strike, but the volume is there, our bulk franchise, and from the synergy perspective.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Nadeem, I guess maybe following up with that, and maybe John can chime in too, unlike these self-help contracts that you guys are talking about. But does that set you up for potentially a stronger 2024, just given some of the headwinds that you had early in 2023. When you look at that 2024 through 2028 outlook?

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. I mean, I think, some of what John has described today and I know couldn't get into my speed till a confidentiality perspective, and on a customer perspective, but we've had some wins since investor day that we weren't factoring in to be quite frank. So, I feel very good about 2024. I feel very good about Q4 to be honest. And like I said as we're long people, we've kind of had a peak come from, do you think about the volume versus work force. We have a peak of a delta in a non-productive way. [Indiscernible] out in Q3 and into Q4, and it sets us up well to the offering leverage we talked about both into the back half of this year but 2024 looks very strong. And so if we see that path to recovery, this investment in hiring and training, I think it's going to pay the dividends, as well as the work we're doing on a capital front, on a network, as well as the work we're doing on the capital front on hiring rail cars. And then we're starting to have benefits of the synergies on the expense side from that operating leverage and the work that's taking place to improve operations for yourself on the network. So, I'm pretty excited, although we've seen obviously a very tough reporting quarter for us and all the rails. I think we have a pretty optimistic view on this year and into 2024.

John Brooks

Analyst

Brandon, I might just add that, I mean, you're right, it's a smack-row environment and some of these broader challenges have been very frustrating, but the fact that we're planting the seeds right now, I think you're right when you say, you begin to see some of the benefits of some of these projects. I just think about our efforts right now to get BCOs all set up for Lázaro Cárdenas as you look to 2024. I think about our announcement on the auto compound down in Dallas, that'll be up second quarterish in 2024. As you think about the Toronto fuels terminal, in Melbourne, in Agent Corps, that Covi [Ph] spoke to at investor day that will all come up in 2024. The Dallas transload that supports the lumber and the map market down there coming up in 2024. All those things, I think support what Nadeem spoke to, and if we get a little bit of tailwind, on the macro background, then I think, again we're off to the races.

Keith Creel

Analyst

I can't help but add a little bit more color to that. So, as an operating CEO, I've been, I've been dreaming about it having visions of a closely automotive network since my days of servicing automotive manufacturing facilities back in the late 90s. Going through the pain and suffering of not having enough empty car supply to keep your production lines going and being the guy, they got the old app because of that, when you could control the destination, the least scars that you don't ever forget, and it created opportunities. So, we set from the very beginning of the vision, what are the visions of this network, this extended reach network when you connect the book ends. The manufacturing in Mexico, manufacturing in Ontario, an automotive compound in between and create this closed loop network is powerful. I can tell you that we've made some significant progress there to the point that we're close to ordering cars, the service closed loop network, and those that we've partnered with in this space that are taking this step of faith with us. They're going to have their own guaranteed car supply by turning those assets and it's going to allow them to get more vehicles from the manufacturing facilities to the dealerships that need to sell them and create our own empty car supply to feed the opposite end of the loop. So, that's not a dream anymore. That's coming to fruition. That's going to be showcasing itself in a very powerful way in 2024, and that is ahead of my expectation. So, it's super, super excited about that development.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

Scott Group

Analyst

Hey, thanks, afternoon. So just a couple things. The high single digit growth in Q4, maybe just some color on which overall segments you think will do best. And then Nadeem just want to clarify, are you saying that labor costs come down sequentially from here, or actually come down year-over-year, that'd be a pretty, big sequential drop. And then, all the other rails have talked about to make fuel headwinds in the back half of the year. Are you any different or should we assume same kind of headwind there? Thank you.

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

Scott, so as Keith spoke to, I think our auto sector a frac sand sector, a steel sector, we'll see how fully I’m going to push marketing things to see that materializing our grain business, our coal. We've got easy compares there in strong demand. So I see a lot outside in coal. We have a decent potash Q4 last year. If we hit the expectations of our partners, we'll, you'll see, you'll see good growth and potash. So I call out those areas and then this shell contract lien [Ph] is, is significant. And that's going to start up in, in August for us. And I think that'll only help, not only insulate, potentially shows some good growth in our, in our, in our ECP business also.

Keith Creel

Analyst

Scott, just on headcount, should be flat sequentially in terms of our workforce and so forth. And we'll see what stock base comp does in terms of what the stock price does. That's been a headwind for us. So, my point is the productivity volumes will increase headcount. We'll stay relatively flat. So, and then year-over-year, I think, Q4, we see a benefit on headcount. I think year-over-year that'll be our meaningful efficiency for us. On the fuel side, I wouldn't say we're, see a meaningful headwind on that for us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Fadi Chamoun of BMO Capital Markets.

Fadi Chamoun

Analyst

Yes. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Just on quick clarification for us. So, Nadeem guidance is basically $3.95. You've earned $7.3 years-to-date so we're talking about a 28% kind of sequential improvement in the second half versus the first half. I just want to make sure we're on the same page on that. But my question is maybe Mark or Keith the speed is 18 miles per hour now CP did 22, 23 consistently in the past the same thing if we look at the commodity productivity in train lanes and all these metrics like what does this record look like three or four years down the road, is this is this a step up that we're going to see consistently and what's going to drive? Is this the revenue mix as you take on that business that you highlighted in June or is it investment in the infrastructure that you need to do? I'm just trying to understand kind of what does this network look like once you're done doing some of these key kind of programs that you're highlighted in June.

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

Certainly for all this energy volume that we're talking about bringing your own Fadi, we’re going to need those investments but the way I kind of look at it right now you know the CP standard is something we're working to. That's what this merger is all about. So as we integrate the operations what we've seen which we expect it is on the former KCS network train speed is improved. Moody has improved, we put this operating plan in place and it's working. On the Mexican network at this point that's that's what's deluding the overall improvement opportunity and that's exactly why our Phase 2 we are focused on Mexico. So we'll get to 2023. I haven't done the math yet, and we'll improve in a material way you should expect so and you'll see from that a driving of our synergies you'll see car house savings because we're going to need fewer cars to move the same amount of business those assets are going to turn. You're going to see revenue improvements. There's not enough car supply to feed all the demand we have for automotive as we speed the network up in Mexico. We're going to create our own car supply. We're going to get more loads it's going to drive more revenues. So you get it on both sides on the bottom line on the top line and you'll start to see some material impact to our results. But again is it going to be 23, it's not going to be 15 maybe it's not 23 but it's certainly going to be somewhere between 17, 18. I'll do the math later, I haven't at this point. I just know I have a very firm expectation that it will improve in a material way.

Keith Creel

Analyst

And Fadi as we're guiding to 395 core adjusted combined diluted EPS.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Konark Gupta of Scotia Bank.

Konark Gupta

Analyst

Thanks operator, good afternoon. I want to ask you John any color on the shell contract contribution and a lie stand, wondering if it is a result of mergers synergies and as well as you do you expect any more conversion of opportunity by flying [Ph] heading into 24? Thanks.

John Brooks

Analyst

And I think the question I knew it's probably coming from somebody and now I can't provide any further details. I will say this Shell is a great partner of ours, and they have been a number of years and one of those customers that identified that early on that this combination was going to be meaningful to them. And it's just again then a culmination of a lot of work between our teams to create the right package and an opportunity and you're exactly right, leveraging the entire CPKC network. So, again, you'll see the results come through our ECP areas, we begin to ramp that that business up once we get into August there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck of JP Morgan.

Brian Ossenbeck

Analyst

Hey thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to ask a couple of clarifications. Nadeem, can you just walk through what the FX exposure looks like right now see there's a line item on I think slide 15 in terms of the walk. So you can just talk about hedging or how we should be thinking about bottling that? And then just on the Mexico, if you can elaborate the extent you can in terms of what's actually the challenges there? How long you think it will take, and generally what you're trying to work through to get that network a little bit more fluid?

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

Hey Brian, I'm just going to have Ashley [Ph] and Chris [Ph] follow up with you on AFX piece, it's just great.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Pretty late in the call here, so don't give me the details and I think we have composed that it’s all on our website but that's it.

John Brooks

Analyst

Brian, I think the main focus on Mexico is getting our inventory reduced so that we can get the terminals more fluid. We're also taking a concerted focus on renewing our existing contract at this moment until we can see benefits in the operation overall. There's no sense to distract ourselves trying to create any kind of potential conflict integrating a more modernized agreement. That's not to say that we're not still interested and it's not very compelling. That's going to be a more phase two as opposed to a phase one. Our employees need to want our deal. It's much better for the employee. They'll make a lot more money. They'll have a better quality of life. But right now the first order of business making sure that we optimize our network and fluidity with the existing contract we have which we're seized and focused on and then step two will be to discuss modernization when the time is correct.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Jon Chappell of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Jon Chappell

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. Just talking about the yield side a little bit Nadeem you already pointed out that you're not going to have the same fuel surcharge headwinds that most of the others will. You're pricing the portfolio both the core business and then the combined business. Is there a lot of kind of step up opportunity in the second half of the year from a yield perspective to kind of help you get to that guide to the back half?

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

I think Jon, there's certainly the discipline that you've seen from I guess legacy CP and how we approach contracts and our pricing. The step function is how we sort of overlay that disciplined approach to the KCS network and some of those contracts. Is that quantum leaps? No. But I think that's a lot of singles and doubles. We're still seeing renewals in the -- I would say low high single digit type range which I'm quite positive about. I don't foresee that changing as we move through, the remainder of the year. And there are some, legacy contracts and opportunities out there that we're working with a variety of customers on around repricing for the value of our capacity and service. And some of those could, create a larger step function in some areas. But, I don't I'm not going to call that a major driver in terms of if you think about Q4 and actually that probably creates a bigger benefit for us as we look into the 2024 renewals.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Binwab Fawrieh [Ph] of Desjardins Capital Markets.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Looking at Intermodal, obviously it's an important part of your growth story going forward. I was wondering if the current softening environment brings more opportunity than an increased number of discussion with customers and what would be your average length of all on the Intermodal side for the combined? I would be curious to know whether the lower fuel expense and lower spot rates bring more competition from the truck right now. Thanks.

Nadeem Velani

Analyst

Yes. Binwab, maybe a couple comments on that. I do believe, and I've said this before, these types of depressed markets, typically the transportation buyer becomes more aggressive in terms of looking for options to lower their prices. That is a buying opportunity for my marketing and sales team people. As I said, also, we're not sitting by and waiting for the phone to ring. We're out pounding the pavement looking to fill that train up. We need to continue to add train length to that 180-181 pair and, frankly, get the business going back on our legacy franchise across Canada. Train length, I think about, if you think about our legacy network and that 1,400 to 1,700-mile sort of wheelhouse between Toronto and Calgary, I look at that very similar as you think about, specifically, Chicago, down to Laredo and down to the San Luis Potosi area or Monterrey area. It's a very similar length. I do believe, historically, we're more insulated across Canada. And I think so in this quarter to some extent, against that shorter haul movement that might be more conducive to slip quickly back to truck. So I think that makes us a little more sticky. And again our focus on today is adding density to that corridor.

Keith Creel

Analyst

Okay that said, it's been a long call. We can't get to everyone, I apologize for that. But I would encourage if you have any other points to address touch base with us they'll make themselves available for any follow-up. And we look forward to sharing our third quarter results. In the meantime, we're going to be continued to focus on integrating well, growing uniquely as we build out this network very methodically and obviously stepped function improvement when it comes to operational performance most specifically in Mexico. With that said, have a safe day, we appreciate your time this afternoon and we'll talk soon.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.