Richard Galanti
Analyst · Sterne, Agee Credit
Thank you, Kayla. Good morning to everyone. Last night we reported operating results for the 16-week fourth quarter and 52-week fiscal year that ended August 30. These results are compared to the similar 16 and 52-week periods of fiscal 2014, which ended last year on August 31. Please note that these discussions will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements address risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results, and/or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those outlined in today’s call, as well as other risks identified from time-to-time in the company’s public statements and reports filed with the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and we do not undertake to update these statements except as required by law. To begin with our fourth quarter fiscal 2015 operating results, net sales for the fourth quarter came in at $35 billion, up 1% overall a year ago. Comp sales were down 1% on a reported basis, but were up 6% including the negative gas and FX impacts. Gas prices for the quarter were down 21% year-over-year, negatively impacting U.S. comp figures by little more than 3 percentage points, so a plus 6 U.S. comp, excluding gas price deflation. Foreign currencies overall were weaker relative to the dollar year-over-year in the fourth quarter, such that our reported international comps on a reported basis of minus 10% in Canada and a minus 7% international – in other international. Assuming flat year-over-year FX rates and excluding gas price deflation would have been plus 7% in Canada and plus 6% elsewhere internationally. For the quarter, earnings per share came in at $1.73, up $0.15, or 10% from last year’s $1.58 figure. In terms of a year-over-year comparison – the EPS comparison, a few items of note, and the biggest item of note, FX. In Q4 year-over-year, the foreign currencies where we operate were weaker versus the U.S. dollar, resulting in our reported foreign earnings this year in Q4, being lower by about $53 million after-tax, or $0.12 a share than these earnings would have been had FX exchange rates have been flat year-over-year. Number two, income taxes. Our income taxes this year in Q4 included several discrete items that, in the aggregate, decreased our income tax line by $23 million, or about $0.05 a share. The largest component of the $23 million figure was a $17 million, or almost $0.04 a share income tax benefit that resulted from our decision to repatriate in the near future from Canada back to the U.S. $750 million Canadian, or about $560 million U.S. of cash balances. Third item of note, IT monetization. As discussed in the past several quarters, our major IT monetization efforts are ongoing and will continue to negatively impact our SG&A expense percentages through the next fiscal year and possibly beyond, especially as new major systems are placed into service and depreciation begins. In the fourth quarter on an incremental year-over-year basis, these costs have impacted SG&A by an estimated $22 million, or 6 basis points – 4 basis points without deflation in FX or about $0.03 a share. And lastly, LIFO. Last year in the fourth quarter we recorded a pre-tax LIFO charge of $11 million pre-tax, or $0.02 a share. This year, we actually had a LIFO credit or a bring back of $14 million pre-tax, or $0.02 a share, lot of that had to do with gas deflation. In terms of new openings, for all of fiscal 2015, we opened 25 new locations, which included two relos, so a net of 23. 12 new in the U.S., three each in Mexico and Japan, and one each in Canada, UK, Taiwan, Korea, and Australia, which therefore ended fiscal 2015 a few weeks back with 23 net new warehouses and a total of 686 locations operating worldwide. For the current fiscal year 2016, our plans are to add up to 32 net new warehouses, including a few business centers in the U.S. 18 to 20 of the planned new locations will be in the United States with the remaining in international markets, including our second opening in Spain and our first opening planned for France. During the first fourth months of 2016 through calendar year end, we plan to open 13 of those up to 32 warehouses, including two relos of net of 11 and nine in the U.S., one each in Canada, Australia, Japan, and Spain, and then the two U.S. relos are in that 11 figure – in the 9 figure, sorry. Also, this morning I’ll review with you our membership trends and related activities, our e-commerce activities, plenty of discussion on margins and SG&A and recent stock repurchase activities. Okay. So for first – fourth quarter results, sales, again, for the fourth quarter and the 16 weeks ended August 30, were $35 billion, up 1% from last year’s $34.8 billion. On a reported basis, again, comps were down minus 1%. For the quarter just minus 1% reported comp figure was a combination of an average transaction decrease of about 4.5% for the quarter. And again, this included the detriment from FX of a little over 4%, and gasoline price deflation of a little over 2.5% impact. So as you can see, excluding the – these negative factors, comps overall were up 6%, and the transaction actually on an ex-gas and FX would have been slightly positive. And an average frequency increase of just under 4%, at about 3 and 3.25%. In terms of sales by geographic region, most U.S. regions registered low single-digit comp increases, again, that – these numbers include the impact of gas deflation of little over 3% in the U.S. with the Midwest, Texas, and California being the strongest. Internationally in local currencies, the strongest results in Australia, Mexico, Taiwan, and Spain, recognizing Spain only has one new unit – one unit. In terms of comp sales by merchandise categories for the quarter, for food and sundries, comps were mostly flat for the quarter, again, all these items – all these figures include about a 4% detriment from FX. The better-performing departments were deli, sundries and candy. Within Hardlines in the low single-digit range, better-performing departments were sporting goods, hardware, and automotive. Our consumer electronics were negative low single-digit year-over-year positive low single-digit ex-FX. For Softlines, comps were in the low single-digit range, better-performing departments included home furnishings and domestics. And within Fresh Foods, comps were in the low single-digit range as well with best results in deli, produce and meat. Moving on down the income statement to membership fees, on a reported basis, membership fees came in at $785 million, or 2.24% of sales, that’s up $17 million, or 2% in dollar and up 3 basis points. Again, FX have big impact on these dollar figures on a – assuming flat year-over-year FX, the 2% dollar increase would have been up 6%. In terms of membership, we continue to enjoy strong renewal rates, 91% in the U.S. and Canada and 88% worldwide. And strong – also, we’re enjoying strong sign-ups both new and existing warehouses and continued strength in our executive member program. In terms of members at fiscal year end, we had $34.0 million gold star members, up from the most recent quarter of $33.2 million, primary business $7.1 million, up from $7.0 million. We continue to have business add-on members of $3.5 million, so all told member households, 44.6 million at fiscal year end, which is up from 43.7 million 16 weeks earlier. Including additional cards, total cardholders out there stood at 81.3 million in fiscal year end, up from 79.6 million in fiscal quarter ago. At fiscal year end, executive memberships were 16.1 million, which is an increase of about 400,000 members since Q3 end, so about 25,000 a week increase in the quarter. In terms of membership renewal rates, as I mentioned, they continue strong. Total came in at – rounds up to a 91, and for U.S. and Canada and total worldwide rounds up to an 88. Getting back to the income statement, our gross margin in the fourth quarter on a reported basis was higher year-over-year by 44 basis points coming in at 11.14% this year versus the year ago fourth quarter at 10.70%. Without the impact of gas price deflation, that increase would be up 15 basis points. Now I ask you to jot down just two columns of numbers looking just at the fourth quarter here, both, the column one would be reported basis and column two would be without gas deflation. First line item would be core merchandise. On a reported basis, year-over-year up 17 basis points, ex-gas deflation down 8 basis points. Ancillary businesses reported plus 25 without gas plus 18, the 2% reward increasing sales penetration related to executive member sales and the 2% reward minus 5 reported and minus 2 ex-gas. LIFO, plus 7 and plus 7 and total the reported basis as I mentioned plus 44 basis points in ex-gas plus 15. Now reviewing these figures again the core merchandise component was up 17, but minus 8 without gas primarily a function of improved year-over-year gross margins within our gasoline and several other ancillary and warehouse businesses. The core merchandize gross margin, which I define as the main four departments, merchandise departments, food and sundries, hardlines, softlines and fresh foods as a percentage of their own sales were actually up 13 basis points year-over-year; food and sundries, hardlines, softlines were up year-over-year and, while fresh foods was a little lower. Ancillary and other business gross margins were up as I mentioned in a chart there up 25 basis points plus 80 without gas. We enjoyed broad based strength across most of our ancillary businesses with year-over-year gross margin improvements in gas optical hearing aids as well as operating results and ecommerce business centers, travel and executive member services. And LIFO in the fourth quarter as I mentioned it year-over-year was a 4 basis point benefit or $40 million, compared to a 3 basis point detriment a year ago of $11 million. Our year-end inventory shrink results were in line with our all time best results and our inventory positions were at great shape. All in all gross margin of inventory is in good shape. Moving onto the SG&A. Our SG&A percentages year-over-year in the fourth quarter were higher or worse by 27 basis points coming in at right at 10.00% of sales this year, compared to 9.73% last year. Again taking out gas deflation essentially flat year-over-year higher or worse by 1 basis point. Again I’ll ask you to jot down the two columns Q4 reported and Q4 ex-gas deflation in terms of operations reported minus 15 or higher by 15 basis points, without gas deflation plus 8 basis points or lower or better by 8. Central the minus 7 and minus 5, stock compensation at minus 5 and a minus 4. All told we came in on a reported basis higher by 27 basis points in SG&A and again ex-gas deflation minus 1 basis point. And looking at these figures of the operations component of the SG&A was higher again or worse by 15 and again excluding gas lower or better by 8, within operations ex-gas deflation core warehouse payroll and other operating expenses were better by 10 basis points and half of which was improvement in payroll percent. Central expense was higher or worse by 7 basis points year-over-year, 5 without gas with nearly all of that variance could be from an IT monetization efforts 6 and 5 basis points respectively without gas deflation. Lastly stock compensation expense represented again a minus 5 and minus 4 without gas, just we have over 4,000 people on our plan and that’s done well as a compensation tool. Next on the income statement is pre-opening higher by $12 million coming in at $27 million this year versus $15 million a year ago. Last year in fourth quarter we had 10 openings, this year we had 13. Of the $12 million year-over-year incremental expense, which is about $0.02 a share little under half of it is due to incremental units 13 versus 10, the rest about $7 million of variance is simply increasing pre-opening expense associated with upcoming openings in the first several months of our new fiscal year versus the similar period of a year earlier. All told reported operating income in the quarter increased $65 million or 6% year-over-year to $1.156 billion this year. Below the operating income line reported interest expense was higher year-over-year coming in at $40 million this year from third - up from $35 million a year ago. This is mostly due to the interest expense on the billion dollar debt offering that was completed earlier this calendar year to fund a portion of the special dividend. Interest income and other was higher or better year-over-year by $10 million coming in at $40 million this year the fourth quarter versus $30 a year ago. Actual interest income for the quarter came in at $12 million, compared to $17 million a year ago so actually lower by 5. The other component of interest income and other was higher or better by $15 million primarily related to various FX related items [indiscernible] with the foreign countries when they’re locking in some of their FX needs. Overall pretax income was up 6%, or $70 million this year versus last year. In terms of our tax rate, our company tax rate for the quarter came in lower than last year 32.7% this year versus 35.1% last year in the quarter. Again, we benefited from several discrete items in Q4 as I explained – discussed earlier in the call. Such that, overall net income was up 10%, or $70 million, coming in at $767 million this year in the fourth quarter versus last year fourth quarter net earnings of $697 million. For a quick rundown of other items, while the balance sheet is included in this morning’s press release, a couple of quick balance sheet info items. Depreciation and amortization for the fourth quarter came in at $351 million and for the year $1.127 billion. Our accounts payable as a percent of inventories on a reported basis was essentially a 100%, 101% both last year and in this year fiscal year end. Ex non-merchandise payables mostly construction related would be that, both the last year in fourth quarter and in this year fourth quarter came in at 89%. In terms of inventory for warehouse, average inventory for warehouse was up 200,000, or 2% to $13 million in Q4 in this year, up from $12.8 million. That’s – the actual number, again, excluding, assuming FX was flat year-over-year would have been 535,000, or up about 4.2%. The increase pretty much spread across many departments, and no real surprises there. Overall, our inventory is in good shape as I mentioned earlier. In terms of CapEx, in the fourth quarter, we spent $805 million and for all of 2015, the capital expenditures totaled $2.4 billion. Our estimate for fiscal 2016, CapEx is an increase from that $2.4 billion level somewhere in the high 2s, somewhere between $2.8 billion, $3 billion. This year-over-year increase in CapEx represents our plans for more openings this year versus last year. The increase spending for remodeling, expanding ancillary business operations, planned expansion of our cross-dock and distribution operations, and expenditures related to our ongoing IT spending for monetization efforts. In terms of Costco online, we’re still operating Costco online in four countries; U.S., Canada, UK and Mexico. For the fiscal year, total e-commerce sales came in just under $3.5 billion, up a little over 20% for the year. Comp sales in e-commerce, again, were also up 20% for both the fourth quarter and the fiscal year. In terms of expansion, I talked earlier about up to 32 units, net of relos, we would expect 11 in Q1, three in Q2, seven in Q3, and 11 in Q4, Q4 being a little longer fiscal period 16 weeks versus 12 weeks than the others. In fiscal 2015, I mentioned on a net basis, we had 23 units on a base of 653, so about 3.5% square footage growth. This year assuming the 32 units on a base of 686, that would be just under 5% square footage growth. In terms of new locations by country, assuming that 30, 32 figure, about 18 in the U.S., Canada up three, two each in Japan and Australia, and one each in UK, Taiwan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and France. As of fourth quarter end, total square footage stood at 98.7 million square feet. In terms of common stock repurchases buybacks, for the fourth quarter, we spent $260 million on 1.836 million shares, at an average price of just under $142. On an annualized basis, that would be about $850 million, as an annualized run rate during the quarter. For the year, we spent $484 million at an average price of $142.87. In terms of dividends, our third quarterly dividend stands at $0.40 a share, or $1.60 a share annualized, that was up 12.5% from the prior quarterly rate that paid in the first two quarters of fiscal 2015. This year is $1.60 per share dividend, represents an annual cost to the company of about $700 million. And as you know, back in February, we did a special dividend of $5 per share, which was a total of $2.2 million special dividend paid out to shareholders. Lastly, before I turn it over to Kayla for Q&A, our fiscal 2016 first quarter schedule earnings release date for the 12-week first quarter ending on November 22, would be after market close on Tuesday December 8, with the earnings call the following morning on the 9th of December. With that, I’ll open it up for questions and turn it back to Kayla.