Richard Galanti
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Debbie. Good morning to everybody. This morning's press release reviews our second quarter of fiscal 2011 operating results for the twelve weeks ended February 13 and, of course, our four-week February sales, which ended Sunday, February 27. As with every conference call, I'll start by stating that the discussions we're having will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and that these statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results and/or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements. The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those outlined in today's call, as well as other risks identified from time to time in the company's public statements and reports filed with the SEC. To begin with, our 12-week second quarter of fiscal '11, for the quarter, our earnings per share came in at $0.79, up 18% from last year's second quarter earnings per share of $0.67. As was noted in the press release, in last year's second quarter, we had a $22 million or $0.03 a share charge that was recorded related to a change in the company's employee benefits. Excluding this charge, Q2 EPS last year would have been $0.70 and the 18% EPS increase would have been 13% on a more normalized basis. Looking at the year-over-year Q2 earnings comparison, there are just a few other items I'll quickly note here. As was in the case in Q1 year-over-year with rising gas prices, our gasoline operations were still profitable in Q2 this year but less so than in Q2 last year to the tune of about $0.02 a share. So that hurt us a little bit year-over-year. As was previously disclosed, we're taking a 4.9% pretax accrual in the second quarter to pay pending court approvals, some attorney's fees and a derivative suit. LIFO is back after at least nine fiscal quarters, with no LIFO charges, and in fact, back in '09, all four quarters had LIFO credits. We recorded in Q2 here a $6 million pretax LIFO charge that's based on the way things are looking, we would expect more in the coming fiscal quarters. Lastly, currencies' foreign FX. Many of the foreign currencies in the countries in which we operate have strengthened relative to the dollar year-over-year. And as compared to the U.S. dollar such that when we consolidate the profits from these foreign operations by converting such profits into U.S. dollars, this helped Q2 by approximately $0.02 a share. If you take those four items that I just mentioned, gasoline profitability, the $4.9 million accrual for legal fees, LIFO of $6 million and the FX benefit added together, these four items collectively hit this year's Q2 EPS by approximately $0.02 a share. One other item of quick note. As I mentioned in last quarter's conference call, effective the start of this fiscal year back in September, we began consolidating the results of our Mexico operations, our Mexico joint venture. Historically, before this fiscal year, these operations were treated on the equity investment method. Thus, we only reported our 50% share of the joint venture's net income within the non-operating interest income and other line item on our income statement. Since the beginning of this fiscal year, we now fully consolidate the Mexico venture. In effect it adds 2% to 3% to the top line sales, assets and liabilities, 100% of the venture's financial statements are included in our P&L and balance sheet and cash flow and then the 50% portion held by our joint venture partners then backed out at the bottom of our income statement to offset it, such that there is no effect to our bottom line or our earnings per share. It does, however, impact the discussion of the percentages of gross margin and SG&A alike and earnings basis points, and I'll point that out as I discuss our results in the next few minutes. In terms of sales for the second quarter, our reported total sales were up 11.4% and our 12-week reported comparable sales figure was up 7%. For the quarter, as has been the case for several quarters now, both total sales and comp sales were impacted by gasoline price inflation and by the strengthening foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar year-over-year. On a comp basis, the reported 5% U.S. sales increase, if you exclude gas inflation, would have been 3%. The reported 12% international comp figure, assuming flat year-over-year, FX rates would have been plus 8% resulting in the total company comps which again we reported as plus 7% excluding gas inflation and excluding FX, would have been plus 4% for the company. In terms of the four-week month of February, which we are also reporting this morning, it's directionally similar to the quarter, again, excluding gas inflation. The 6% reported U.S. comp would be plus 4% and the 14% reported in international comp would be plus 7% in local currency. Such that excluding both gas inflation and FX, the February's four-week reported comp number of 8% would be plus 5%. And again, for the month of February, this what I'll call the normalized plus 5% compares to a normalized plus 4% for the entire second quarter. Other topics of interest that we'll review this morning, our open activities and plans. After opening eight new locations in Q1, we opened two new locations in Q2, one is a new location in the suburbs of Minneapolis in Burnsville, Minnesota and our second location in Vancouver, Washington, which is just north of the Oregon, Washington border, north of Portland. We also closed a unit in the quarter in San Marcos, California. This unit is being torn down and rebuilt on the same site. They will open again later this summer before the fiscal year end. Since Q2 end on February 13, we have not opened any new locations, but we'll open a third unit in Tucson, Arizona in mid April and our plans are for additional 14 buildings to open by fiscal year end, including the reopening of the San Marcos site. All told, that would put our fiscal year 2011 opening schedule at 24 net new units. That would include 14 in the U.S., three in Canada, five in Asia, all of which are planned for our fourth quarter construction, which starts in early May and two in Australia, which would be our second and third units in Australia. Also this morning, I'll briefly review our dot com results, our membership trends, and again, talk about margins and SG&A in the quarter. I mentioned what we bought in terms of stock repurchase and a couple of other miscellaneous items. So on to the discussion of our quarterly results. Sales for the quarter, as I mentioned, were $20.4 billion, up 11.4% from $18.4 billion a year earlier and, again, our reported comp was 7%, which of course is benefited by the inflation and the FX. For the quarter, the 7% reported comp, resulted from a combination of an average transaction increase of plus 3% and an average frequency increase of about 3.5%. The frequency trend, by the way, during the past three calendar reporting months for December, January and February was basically 3.5%, 4.5% and 4%, a little under 4%. And for the -- we are now going under 2-plus years with the year-over-year frequency increases in the 3% to 5% range on a year-over-year monthly basis and FX, as many of you know, after years of frequency figures in the 0% to 2% range. For the February reporting month much like the quarterly comps, our 8% reported comp figure was a combination of an average transaction increase of 4.2% and, again, that includes the FX benefits and the gas benefit, it would have been somewhere between 0.5% and 1% net of those two and an average frequency increase of 4%. In terms of sales comparisons by geographic region for the quarter, the Midwest, the LA and the San Diego regions were the strongest followed by good showings in the Bay Area in the Southeast. The weakest U.S. region was Northeast, of course, that was impacted by the ongoing inclement weather. Internationally, in local currencies, U.K. has been the weakest as of this continue to be about flat with Canada and Taiwan in the mid singles and all the countries in the double-digit comp range in local currency. For February, we continue again to experience weather in different parts of the country. During February, there were impacts in Midwest Texas, Northwest in Canada. We estimate that detriments to what we would have in terms of loss sales somewhere in the 0.5% to 1% range. On a regional and country basis for the month of February, U.S. regions with strong results with Midwest and all three California regions, Bay Area, Los Angeles and San Diego. You might recall that San Diego region also includes not just the San Diego market but Colorado and Arizona. The weakest U.S. regions were the Northeast and the Northwest, again, both impacted by strange weather. Internationally, in local currencies, we're doing fine. Canada up high single-digits and Korea and Japan in the teens. One quick comment on weather and its impacts on our sales. I recently read an Internet article about our comments on weather, while negative impact to our year-over-year sales increases, it's not really an issue because we had similar reasons a year earlier in discussing sales. We understand that. We're just trying to share with you what our operators look at in terms of what we fully lost. Whenever you have the kind of weather we've had in some of those sales were non-recoverable and we give our best guess and our operators give us their best guess of what they lost, which then Jim discounts a little bit and that's what we give you. Inflation in Fresh Foods continues in the low- to mid-single digits range and in Food and Sundries in the low-single digit range similar to January. Looking ahead to March, March is a five-week sales reporting month. We'll have a full 35 selling days this year compared to 34 days last year. That too is the timing of Easter, which is three weeks later on the calendar this year versus last year. Last year, Easter fell on April 4. This year, it falls on the 24th. The March reporting period will end Sunday April 3 and we'll report on the 7th of April. In terms of merchandise categories by quarter, in terms of sales for February within Food and Sundries, all subcategories were positive ranging from plus 3% to plus 12% for the month with essentially a flat Hardlines comp sales increase, the strongest subcategories within Hardlines for the month of February were automotive, sporting goods and office. Majors, which is electronics, overall, were negative. That's the offset to the other areas. The big dollar negatives were in computers and other miscellaneous electronics like audio and what have you, which overall were weaker in terms of average selling price and units. The one positive note within that negative majors is TVs. While the average sales price per television is down, the TV unit sales in February were up 9%, which resulted in about flat dollar sales in TV. So you can figure out what the average sales price decline was. But nonetheless, good unit sales increase in TVs. Within the high-single digit comps of Softlines, housewares, home furnishings, small appliances and jewelry showed the strongest results. And within Fresh Foods, all right around 10% plus or minus a couple of percentage points. All four sub Fresh Foods categories, meat, bakery, deli and produce in the high-single to low-double digit range in each of the subcategories Moving on to the line items and the income statement. We'll start with membership fees. We reported $426 million or 2.08% in Q2 of '11. That's up 10 percentage points in dollars or up about $40 million from last year, about two basis points less. Again, I can go through all the explanations of gas inflation that impacts it, but nonetheless, in dollar terms, it was up 10% to $40 million. If you take FX out, it was up 9%. This is still a good showing. In terms of membership, we continue to enjoy strong renewal rates and continued increasing penetration of the Executive Member. As I mentioned, we had two openings in Q2, but actually and then one closing with at San Marcos, but two openings. Our new membership sign ups for the quarter were still up slightly year-over-year in the fiscal quarter, net new sign ups overall. In terms of number of members at Q2 end, at the end of the first quarter, we had 23.5 million Gold Star members. It's now 23.9 million. Primary business, 6.2 million at the end of the first quarter, 6.3 at the end of the second quarter. Business add-on 3.6, million and 3.9 million, and total households would be 33.3 million and 34.1 million. And if you include all cardholders, some households of course have two cards, 61.2 million at Q1 end and 62.0 million at Q2 end. These figures, of course, include Mexico now that we consolidate, but both Q1 and in Q2 end to have apples to apples comparison now. At Q2 end on February 13, our paid Executive Members were just shy of $11 million, $10,974,000; that's an increase of $200,000, $210 000 or about $17,000, $17,500 a week during the last 12-week quarter. In terms of renewal rates, they've actually continued pretty strong. At the end of the year, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 87.7. It was just the number we've always reported. At Q1 end, it was 88.2 and at Q2 end it was 88.8. But certainly part of that I believe is the continuing increasing membership penetration of the higher renewal rates that we engendered from the Executive Membership base. We see the same trends on a worldwide basis in many of the new markets where you have units that are a lot younger. You start off typically in the 70 range and trend up towards our company average. Overall, worldwide, we're around 86%. Going down with gross margin line, our gross margins in the second quarter was higher year-over-year by 15 basis points. Before you get at your pen and will jot down a few numbers, we have three columns, fiscal '10, Q1 '11 and Q2 '11. We have several line items, core merchandising is line one, ancillary business is line two; 2% reward line three; LIFO line four; other -- well actually there is no other in these quarters total. And then I've added two lines, Mexico impact and then the last line below Mexico impact would be without Mexico. Again, because we were consolidating Mexico starting this fiscal year, I had to give you the true reflection of the basis point change, so we show you with and without that. So going across these line items, core merchandise for all of '10, it was up six basis points, so plus six basis points. In Q1 '11, up 19 basis points; in Q2 '11, up 24 basis points. That's, again, on a year-over-year basis of how that margin improved. Within Ancillary business, its contribution to the total change, plus 3 in all of fiscal '10 minus 9 in Q1 '11 and minus 5 in Q2 '11. A 2% reward, which simply reflects the increasing sales penetration. So a higher reward being paid back to our members minus, 2 basis points in '10 and then minus 1 in each of Q1 and Q2 '11. LIFO was a charge of minus 5, not a charge but a year-over-year comparison of minus 5 in fiscal '10, zero in Q1 '11 and minus 3 basis points in Q2 '11. For a total reported year-over-year change in margins of plus 2 basis points for all of fiscal '10, plus 9 for Q1 '11 and plus 15 for Q2 '11. As I mentioned, the consolidation of Mexico benefited both of these numbers in Q1 and Q2. So in terms of Mexico impact, no number in the first column. Q1, plus 3 basis points and Q2 plus six. So without Mexico, it would be plus 6 for Q1 overall and plus 9 basis points in Q2. So with that chart in front of you, as you can see, our overall reported gross margin was higher by 15, and that's what we reported. Within this plus 15, our core merchandise contributed 24 and the Ancillary business gross margins, principally gas, had reduced our Q2 gross margin by 5. In fact, the gas gross margin component was minus 6 or more than all of that minus 5 with the other Ancillary business on a net basis contributing 1 basis point. In Q2, the gas sales penetration was higher year-over-year by just under 1.5 percentage points. As you know, it's a much lower gross margin business to start with. And, in fact, within the Gas business, the margin was reduced year-over-year with the rising gas prices, that's what we see. Our lower margin Gas business represented 7.2% of last year's second quarter sales compared to 8.5% of this year's second quarter sales. So, again, as the sales penetration of our core merchandise was lower year-over-year, that tend to temper. That 24 actually is tempered in the fact that on a like basis, if you look at the four core merchandising areas, which is a little about 80% of our business, which is Food and Sundries, Hardline, Softline and Fresh Foods, just those component -- those gross margin dollars for those four main departments divided by the sales for those four main departments were higher year-over-year in Q2 by actually by 36 basis points, but with the lower sales penetration that the net impact on the chart there is plus 24%. Basically, within those four categories, Food and Sundries, Hardlines and Softlines were all up nicely. Fresh Foods was down ever so slightly, less than 10 basis points down year-over-year, primarily down due to the commodities price inflation, and the fact that we tend to hold pricing as long as we can, particularly key small business items like 15 packs of muffins and some the items at the food court as well, and then the bakery and the deli rather. Overall, Q2 margins were just fine. The impact, as I mentioned, from Executive Membership was 1 basis point, which back on the envelope basis implies about a 2% increase in the sales penetration of those rewardable sales dollars. In LIFO, as I mentioned is back, and we took a charge of $6 million or 3 basis points in Q2. And again, there's no way to predict what will happen, other than my crystal ball tells me that certainly will be a LIFO charge in Q3 and most likely Q4 at this point. Mexico, again, has the positive impact that we just mentioned. Moving to reported SG&A. Our SG&A percentages Q2-over-Q2 were lower or better by 24 basis points coming in at 9.96 as a percent of sales this year compared to 10.20% last year. In last year's Q2, as we mentioned in the press release, we had the $22 million charge related to the exchange in employee benefits that was a detriment last year in Q2 on a year-over-year basis by 12 basis points. So really, when we reported 24 basis point increase, it's really an improvement at 12 basis points net on that. Again, like margin, we'll jump down a few numbers, same three columns all of fiscal '10, Q1 '11 and Q2 '11 and the line items will be core operations, central, stock, or equity, quarterly adjustment, total and then, again, two new line items, Mexico impact and then the total without Mexico. Going across and plus numbers here means lower SG&A, positive operations in fiscal '10 was plus 2 basis points year-over-year in Q1 '11 plus 17 basis points in Q2 '11 plus 13 basis points, so better by 13; central, plus 1, plus 1 and minus 2; equity, zero, plus 1 and plus 1; quarterly adjustments, plus 7, zero and plus 12, that plus 12, by the way, is that employee benefit from the $22 million right now. Total would be plus 10, plus 19 and plus 24. In Mexico in Q1 '11, there is no numbers in the fiscal '10 column. In Q1 '11 it was plus 7, and in Q2 '11 plus 11. So excluding Mexico, it would be plus 12 and plus 13. In terms of little editorial on SG&A, we did have a negative impact of the $4.9 million legal fee related to the derivatives settlement, that's a couple of basis points. There is about a five basis point negative impact from benefits costs, including healthcare and workers' comp. On a positive note, our payroll percentages year-over-year benefited SG&A by 14 basis points. Total payroll dollars for the whole company increased 7.3% in Q2 compared to an 11.4% total sales increase. Both of those numbers include higher increases because of FX spreads, again, this is on apple, both numbers do so for like comparison. Big and small changes in central and equity, nothing big to talk about there. Overall, we feel pretty good performance this year given the continued escalating costs in healthcare and additional small legal expense. In terms of preopening expense, a little over $3 million in Q2 and a little over $4 million in Q2 this year versus a little over $3 million last year. Both numbers were calculated out to 2 basis points, no big issue in both quarters and two openings. In terms of provision for impaired assets and closing costs, last year, we had a very minimal charge of just under $200,000 for the quarter. This year, just under $2 million. So all told, operating coming in Q2 was up 27% from $470 million last year to $597 million this year. Again, if you exclude that $22 million charge that hurt last year's number, the $127 million increase in this line item would be $105 million. Below the operating income line, reported interest expense was slightly higher year-over-year, with Q2 coming in at $27 million versus $26 million a year earlier. These amounts almost entirely reflect the interest expense on the $2 billion debt offering in February of '07. If you recall, within February of '07, $900 million was five-year money, which will become due and payable in March of 2012. That will be a nice change given that we're earning a lot less on our excess cash right now and we'll be paying that off by essentially writing a check, $900 million of that $2 billion in March of 2012. In terms of interest income and other, which again, like Q1 was much lower year-over-year, it was lower by $26 million, just under $4 million versus a little under $30 million last year in the quarter. A big change there, of course, is again Mexico. Actual interest income was higher year-over-year by about $4 million. That's a reflection of higher cash balances certainly not because interest rates averages a lot but also the consolidation of Mexico's investment income into our financial statements. However, the biggest component of this $26 million plus year-over-year change was the earnings from Mexico, which are now consolidated and to a lesser extent, profit on FX contract using our business. Overall, pretax income was up 21% from $474 million last year to $573 million this year. And again, excluding the $22 million charge, pretax earnings were up 16%. Our company tax rate is pretty similar year-over-year in the second quarter. It came in at 35.5% this year versus 35.6% last year in the quarter. We generally have seen that trend down a little bit. The effective rate in the U.S., which includes federal and state is higher than that and some of the foreign countries which have lower federal income tax rates given our increasing profitability overseas which you'll see that number over the last few years trend down a little bit. No big changes or issues on the tax rate. A quick rundown on other things. We'll include in the what's you'll have online what we call the Q&A, which talks about quarterly LIFO charges, summaries of openings, calculations or earnings per share and also the full balance sheet. So we will go with balance sheet here. What's not on there is when some of you ask for us depreciation and amortization for Q2, the depreciation and amortization was $195 million and year-to-date $386 million. We have a strong balance sheet, as many of you know, lots of cash, net cash even kind of $2 billion of debt, strong debt to cap ratios. Accounts payable, if you look at our reported basis a year ago, accounts payable as a percentage of inventories was 104%, at the end of the second quarter, at the end of this year's second quarter, it was 97%. If you take out all of the non-merchandise payables, notably and most importantly construction payables, it was flat year-over-year at 87%. Inventory for warehouse, $10 million right at $10 million last year at Q2 end and about $10.5 million at Q end of this year. So up about $500,000 or 5% for our warehouse. FX is about $170,000 of that $500,000, so it's really flat currency basis, $330,000. And of that $330,000, about little lower a third of it of $130,000 is electronics. No inventory concerns to speak of, we feel we did a good job of taking more accounts to the holidays and our inventory is in good shape, and in fact our physical inventory, which we take at midyear and year-end, our midyear numbers continues the trend of improving ever so slightly the basis points of our inventory shrink. In terms of CapEx and in Q2, we spent $234 million. So year-to-date, $540 million. As I mentioned earlier, we've got a lot of openings planned for the last four months of the fiscal year, starting in mid May. And for all of '11, we would expect CapEx just still be in the $1.5 billion range. In terms of costco.com, in both here and in Canada, sales are up a little over 10% that continues to be a profitable business. Our average ticket has come down a little, but the site traffic continues to grow and it was up a little more than this total sales increase. In terms of expansion, as you know, in each of fiscal '09 and '10, we opened about 15 units, I think it was 13 in '09, net of 16 in fiscal '10. This year, as I mentioned, we plan to do 24, which includes eight in Q1. A net of one unit in Q2 was two less, three well prior to closing of San Marcos. In Q3, one with no relos Q4 '14. So all told, we have 24 net new increases on a starting base of $572 million. So about the 4% unit growth, which would translate is about 4.5% square footage growth given some expansion of existing locations adding some square feet here and there, as well as opening on average units that are, on average, a little higher than the existing company average. As of Q2 end, square footage stood at 84 million and 84,000 square feet. In terms of stock repurchases since the beginning of our program back in December of '05 through the end of fiscal '10 back in August, we repurchased just under 100 million shares at an average price of about $5.37 billion and an average price of about $54.37 a share. In Q1, we purchased those 12 weeks we purchased $150 million worth at an average price of a little under $62 and in Q2 at $94 million worth of stock at $71.73 per share. We're generally buyers every day, including each of the past 11 or so business trading days since Q2 end, and no change in those expectations going forward in terms of being out there. That's about it. As I mentioned, supplemental information will be posted on the Investor Relations site later this morning. Lastly, our Q3 scheduled earnings release date will be on Wednesday, May 25. That's a little bit out there. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Debbie for the Q&A.