Tim Boyle
Analyst · Guggenheim. Bob, your line is live
Thanks, Andrew and good afternoon. I hope everybody is well. I am pleased to report the third quarter net sales and earnings growth were very strong considering the economic, geopolitical and supply chain headwinds that we're navigating. Net sales grew 19% and diluted earnings per share grew 18% broadly in line with our expectations. Bright spots in the quarter included SOREL, which grew 28% year-over-year. The SOREL brand continues to outperform, fueled by function first fashion footwear. We believe fashion SOREL is well on its way to $1 billion in sales and becoming the next global footwear force. Columbia also had a fantastic quarter growing 19%. The brand's iconic innovation, value proposition and democratic distribution uniquely position the brand to capitalize on the popularity of outdoor activities. Innovations like Omni-Heat Infinity and the newly introduced Omni-Heat Helix are solving problems for consumers and are key differentiators for the brand. So looking at the current environment, it's increasingly evident that the threat of recession is weighing on the market. Despite this challenging background, our DTC business was up 8% year-over-year in the quarter with balanced growth across brick and mortar and e-commerce. On our last call, we updated our outlook to contemplate higher order cancellation risk and a more promotional environment compared to the exceptionally favorable environment in the prior year. We experience both these trends in the third quarter and anticipate similar headwinds in the fourth quarter as the marketplace seeks to rationalize inventory levels. Exiting the third quarter, our inventories were up 47%. As we look to align our inventory position with anticipated demand, it's important to remember that our business model and strategies are well suited to manage this process effectively and profitably. Our inventory includes a high percentage of evergreen styles that do not change season to season. This reduces our exposure to promotional pricing. Given our strong balance sheet, we can be patient as to when and where we sell our product. If we decide not to carry over product, we will utilize our fleet of outlet stores, which enables us to profitably sell remaining high quality inventory. Overall, I'm confident our strategies are working and that our brand portfolio has tremendous long term growth potential. With two very important sales months left in the year, we are reiterating our full year net sales and diluted earnings per share outlook. I will provide more data later in the call. From our review of third quarter 2022 financial performance, I'll reference year-over-year comparisons versus the third quarter of 2021, unless otherwise noted. Third quarter net sales grew 19% on a reported basis and 22% on a constant currency basis. By channel, wholesale net sales increased 24% reflecting earlier shipments of our robust fall '22 order book. DTC net sales grew 8%, driven by 9% e-commerce growth and 8% brick and mortar growth. Gross margin contracted 270 basis points with the largest driver of contraction being higher inbound expenses. Gross margin performance was roughly in line with our outlook. SG&A leverage partially offset gross margin pressure, but operating margin still contracted 140 basis points. Diluted earnings per share increased 18% to a $1.80. I will now review net sales performance by region. US net sales increased 19%. We generated mid 20% wholesale growth while timing of fall '22 shipments improved compared to fall '21, they were still later than historical shipping patterns. This resulted in increased order cancellations. Most of our retail partners have now set their fall floor plans. Early season sell through trends reflect healthy demand and are tracking slightly below fall '21, which you will remember was exceptionally strong. Sell through is well above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting growing consumer interests in our product. Our US DTC business was resilient in the third quarter, despite broader economic headwinds. We generated high single digit DTC growth with balanced performance across e-commerce and brick and mortar. Turning to our international business, all regions outside the US were unfavorably impacted by foreign exchange rates. For international regions, I will reference constant currency growth to illustrate underlying growth in each market. Latin America, Asia Pacific region or LAAP, net sales increased 24%. Despite the ongoing impacts of China's COVID policy, China was up mid-single digit percent in the quarter driven by strong dtc.com performance. Continuing waves of COVID outbreaks caused sporadic store closures and traffic decreases in various regions throughout the quarter. With that being said, our e-commerce business in China was quite strong led by the successful launch of our TikTok store. Japan increased high teens percent driven by strong consumer demand as we anniversary the state of emergency declarations, which hindered sales in the prior year. Korea grew low single digit percent led by strong DTC performance. Interest in outdoor activities continues to fuel strong demand in this market. LAAP distributor markets were up almost 150% due to higher fall '22 shipments following depressed pandemic impacted shipments in the prior year. Europe, Middle East, Africa region or EMEA, net sales increased 54%. Europe direct grew 20% despite mounting economic pressures in the region. We experienced strong performance in our DTC e-commerce and wholesale business. Our, EMEA distributor business was up almost 150% due to the later shipments of fall '22 Orders to our Russia-based distributor. Shipment to Russia in the third quarter consisted of pre-existing contractual obligations for orders taken prior to the invasion. As we have previously noted, we have paused taking any new orders for the Russian market. Canada net sales were flat with strong DTC performance offset by lower wholesale shipments, which were unfavorably impacted by timing shifts. Looking at performance by brand, Columbia brand net sales were up 19% in the third quarter. Growth was relatively balanced across apparel and footwear. Following the highly successful launch of Omni-Heat Infinity last year, we're building on this momentum with an expanded collection for fall '22. This differentiated visible technology remains a top priority from a product and marketing standpoint. We're running a worldwide marketing campaign focused on how the Omni-Heat Infinity technology works and why it matters for consumers. Columbia's Omni-Heat Infinity technology received numerous accolades in several top publications this fall. The men's and women's Pinnacle Peak jacket have been named one of the best puffy jackets in Outside Magazine's coveted Winter Gear Guide. For the slopes, the Platinum Peak three layer show was selected as one of the best ski jackets of this season by the editors at Ski Magazine. This fall, we also introduced Omni Heat Helix, our new disruptive poly fleece technology. Historically, the poly fleece category, which is one of the outdoor industry's mainstays has had little innovation. Columbia's Omni Heat Helix is a patent pending visible technology that utilizes highly efficient insulation cells to maximize warmth and ensure breathability. We're excited to build on this differentiated new innovation in the seasons ahead. Omni Heat Helix was featured on a recent Forbes magazine article about a gear test conducted on Alaska's Spencer Glacier. The journey which included hiking, kayaking and camping, served as a proven ground for a collection of key fall '22 styles. As we emphasize at our recent Investor Day, footwear is a growth accelerator for the Columbia brand, and we will continue to prioritize investment in this category. For fall '22, we launched the peak free two collection of lightweight technical hiking footwear. The launch is being supported by an integrated marketing campaign showcasing the shoe's Freaky Good Grip. Our Columbia Montreal performance running line received several callouts during the quarter. The Montreal Trinity Ag was featured in the Runners World's spring footwear review issue. It was one of the 23 styles selected out of over 200 models tested. News also recently featured the Montreal Trinity MX as a shoe to know for 2023. The Trinity Collection is equipped with our branded technologies, tech with plush and adapt Trex to provide added cushioning and traction in all conditions. On the marketing front, we recently announced a multi-season partnership with leading sports and entertainment group Dude Perfect. Colombia and the Dude's will collaborate on several stats and stories this fall and spring, focusing on making the most of the outdoors and inspiring others to do the same. We kicked off the partnership with a segment on ABC's Jimmy Kimmel live, which first aired on September 28. NFL quarterback, Jalan Hertz was recently featured on the no days of Doc series which highlights young athletes on their journey to achieve their goals. The episode focused on JLens transition from growing up in the Texas heat to getting ready for cold playoff weather in Philadelphia. Jan also spoke about why he likes to enjoy the outdoors. Several Columbia products were featured prominently in the episode, including his Omni-Heat Infinity jacket. Shifting to our emerging brands. SOREL was our fastest-growing brand in the quarter. Net sales increased 28%, driven by strong wholesale and DTC e-commerce performance. SOREL's growth rate in the quarter was aided by favorable timing of fall shipments compared to the prior year. The SOREL brand remains laser-focused on bringing our relentless flow of compelling products to its unstoppable consumer. During the quarter, growth was led by winter style categories as well as strong performance in year [indiscernible] and wedge styles. In September, SOREL launched its first partnership with High Bay, which showcases today's female leaders within fashion and culture. SOREL, an illustrator Langley Fox took over the hightb.com homepage to highlight an unstoppable women and the brand's Brex collection. SOREL also launched its social campaign powered by SOREL. This campaign features behind the same content by celebrity stylists as they get their clients ready for New York Fashion Week and the Emmys. This has been 1 of SOREL's most successful organic video campaigns to date. Last week, SOREL announced that it will be relocating its headquarters to its own building on the Columbia Sportswear campus. The new location provides additional space with the brand's growing team and enables SOREL to continue attracting industry best talent. prAna net sales increased 3%. The prAna team is focused on repositioning the brand in the marketplace to energize growth in the coming seasons. Early next year, prAna will sponsor the HBO Max reality series, the climb which will be hosted by after Jason, along with prAna ambassadors, Chris Sharma and Megan Martin. This show will focus on a group of amateur climbers outfitted in Prana, as they ascend some of the most intimidating rock faces in the world. Mountain Hardware net sales increased 11%. Strong sportswear category sell-through was a highlight in the quarter as well as the introduction of the Summit grid collection, a super packable fleece for lightweight performance on the trail. The Amplify Mountain Hardware's product-driven resurgence, the team is keenly focused on solidifying the brand's identity and growing brand awareness. I'll now discuss our updated fall '22 financial outlook. This outlook and commentary include forward-looking statements. Please see our CFO commentary and financial review presentation for additional details and disclosures related to these statements. We are reiterating our full year net sales and diluted EPS outlook calling for 10% to 12% net sales growth and between $5 to $5.40 in diluted earnings per share. Gross margin is now expected to be down 220 basis points to 250 basis points and SG&A expenses are forecast to grow roughly in line with sales growth. The result in an operating margin range of 11.9% to 12.7%. Foreign currency exchange headwinds are now expected to unfavorably impact full year net sales growth by 350 basis points and diluted earnings per share by approximately $0.25. Looking into next year, we plan on providing our 2023 financial outlook when we report fourth quarter results in February. At that time, we will have visibility to fall '23 orders and our planned expenditures. As we indicated at our Investor Day, our Spring '23 order book supports modest wholesale net sales growth in the first half of 2023. We anticipate our on-time delivery performance will greatly improve and be more in line with pre-pandemic service levels. In summary, I'm confident we have the right strategies in place to navigate this dynamic environment and unlock the significant growth opportunities we see across the business. We are investing in our strategic priorities to accelerate profitable growth create iconic products, tie brand engagement, enhanced consumer experiences, amplify marketplace excellence and empower talent that is driven by our core values. That concludes my prepared remarks. We welcome your questions for the remainder of the hour. Operator, could you help us with that?