Earnings Labs

Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 25, 2019

$61.07

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Columbia Sportswear Company Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2019 Financial Results. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andrew Burns, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Burns. You may now begin.

Andrew Burns

Analyst

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us to discuss Columbia Sportswear Company's second quarter results and 2019 outlook. In addition to the earnings release, we furnished an 8-K containing a detailed CFO commentary explaining our results and the assumptions behind our 2019 outlook. The CFO commentary is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.columbia.com. With me today on the call are President and Chief Executive Officer, Tim Boyle; Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Tom Cusick; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Swanson; and Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer, Peter Bragdon. Gert is not available to join us today, so I will start off by covering the safe harbor reminder. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements regarding Columbia's business opportunities and anticipated results of operations. Please bear in mind that forward-looking information is subject to many risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from what is projected. Many of these risks and uncertainties are described in Columbia's annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings with the SEC. Forward-looking statements in this conference call are based on our current expectations and beliefs, and we do not undertake any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this conference call to conform the forward-looking statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations. I'd also like to point out that during the call, we may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including non-GAAP results for 2018. For further information about non-GAAP financial measures and results, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and an explanation of management's rationale for referencing these non-GAAP measures, please refer to the supplemental financial information section and financial tables included in our second quarter 2019 earnings release. Following our prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A period during which we will limit each caller to two questions, so we can get to everyone by the end of the hour. Now I'll turn the call over to Tim.

Tim Boyle

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew, welcome everyone and thanks for joining us this afternoon. 2019 is shaping up to be an excellent year for Columbia Sportswear Company with record second quarter and first half financial performance. Based on strong first half results, current business momentum and one-time tax benefits, we are raising the low end of our net sales outlook and raising our operating margin and earnings per share outlook for the full year. Overall, our brand-led, consumer focused strategy is delivering profitable growth, market share gains and enabling continued investments in our strategic priorities. In the second quarter, net sales increased 9% driven by strong spring 2019 sales performance and to a lesser extent early shipments of advance fall 2019 orders and increased closeout sales. Excluding the effect of exchange rates, net sales increased 11% with double-digit growth realized for Columbia, SOREL and Mountain Hardwear brands. Project CONNECT financial benefits continued in the second quarter, helping to drive 70 basis points of gross margin expansion. Diluted earnings per share more than doubled to $0.34. It's also important to note that diluted earnings per share include $0.11 of one-time tax benefits, primarily related to the passage of the Swiss Tax Reform package. Because the second quarter is our lowest volume sales quarter, I'm going to focus my remarks on our first half results as they more accurately reflect underlying business trends. For the first half, net sales increased 8% or 10% excluding the effect of exchange rates. Diluted earnings per shares of $1.41 increased 83% compared to 2018 GAAP first half results and increased 52% compared to 2018 non-GAAP first half results. Regionally, U.S. net sales increased 13% comprised of mid-teens percent growth in wholesale and low-double digit percent growth in DTC driven by brick-and-mortar store performance and a low 20% increase in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Bob Drbul with Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Thanks and good afternoon guys.

Tim Boyle

Analyst

Hey Bob.

Jim Swanson

Analyst

Hey, Bob.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Tim, on the sales outlook for the remainder of the year, you've talked a lot about the Shift footwear. And you look at the performance of footwear versus apparel in the first half of the year. Can you just give us an idea in terms of the expectations on the footwear business in the back half of the year?

Tim Boyle

Analyst

Certainly. Well, as you know we've got new leadership in our footwear department division with Peter Ruppe starting here. He didn't have the opportunity to impact much of spring 2019 and we're just beginning to see the fruits of his work. And we've been very pleased so far with the reception of the product by retailers and consumers. And so the expectation is that we're finally going to have – finally going to end up resolving the question about whether or not footwork can be the largest product category of the company, which I've been talking about for some time. So I'm very pleased with what we're seeing so far. The Shift product is only narrowly winter related. So we see smaller percent of the total business that we expect in winter. But as you know the winter product that the company has been so famous for, especially in the Columbia product has been really winter related footwear. So we should have a good result in 2019 winter. And then you add on the shift opportunity and further the continuation of our PFG footwear and the expectations are high.

Jim Swanson

Analyst

And Bob, this is Jim. I would just add with regard to the cadence between first half and second half, we would anticipate an acceleration in the footwear business as we get into the second half of this year and that comment is a combined – between the Columbia brand footwear and with the SOREL. So we should see nice growth there in the latter part of the year.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then just the second question, is on the inventory levels, I think you've been talking about this for a little bit, but can you break that down a little bit more in terms of – within that increase, is there a speculative position in that number? And I guess just curious – in terms of the regional breakdown of the inventory. And in China, Mark did you went through some clearance sells. Is the supply demand part in China for the brand at a healthy level at this point?

Mark Nenow

Analyst

Hey, Bob, from an overall standpoint, I would indicate that our inventory – we're very comfortable with the position that we have. When you step back and look at the underlying aging of the inventory by and large, the inventory is comprised of current and future season inventory comprised versus spring ‘19 and fall ’19. We stepped back and look at the aged inventory or older season inventory, it's up modestly. It’s up as single-digit millions of dollars. And when you look at that coupled with the growth that we've got planned in the latter part of the year, we feel comfortable where we'll be. And as Tim indicated and we exit the third quarter, we'd anticipate inventory growth coming back down into the mid-teens level. Now, certainly within there, do we have some pockets of excess inventory in the case of China, we have. We've liquidated some of that through the first half of the year and continue to manage that situation for the balance of the year. And I think finally, as it relates to your question on a speculative purchase. I think last year we’ve made opportunistic purchase, should we see incremental demand? We've done that to a lesser extent this year and keep in mind, we've got a relatively significant replenishment business as a part of our wholesale business that, that inventory is intended to fulfill as well.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Kernan with Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

John Kernan

Analyst · Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good afternoon everybody. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the momentum.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Hey John.

John Kernan

Analyst · Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

So just, Jim could you talk about the benefits of Project CONNECT from a margin standpoint in the second quarter, and what your expectations are going into the back half of the year, they’re embedded in that gross margin guidance?

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, certainly. So if you look at the first half of the year in which we've delivered 150 basis points of gross margin expansion, the lion share of that 150 basis points of margin expansion is effectively Project CONNECT. And so as it relates to the second quarter we continued to see well over 100 basis point improvement related to Project CONNECT. There are some offsets, however and the two offsets in a quarter, one of them was the channel sales mix with wholesale business outpacing the growth in B2C business. And then the other component is we've liquidated some access to full price closeout next had an impact as well. And then as it relates to balance of year, we would continue to anticipate nice improvement from Project CONNECT, similar to what we have to the first half of the year. There are some offsets, however in the back half of the year as well as we've previously noted, just given the favorable selling environment that we had in the fourth quarter of last year, that's a part of that offset. And then there's other smaller components that would include everything from freight costs and mix with the footwear business outpacing the apparel business in the back half of the year. So there's another components like that but, we certainly have confidence in the hard work that the teams have put into delivering the Project CONNECTS benefits.

John Kernan

Analyst · Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Excellent, that’s helpful. And just my follow-up question is just on the back half top line outlook. It feels like inventory levels and the wholesale channel are very clean, sell troughs are high and we can see that in your numbers for the first half of the year. You called out advanced fall 2019 orders being a benefit to the second quarter. And just – can you go back to a time where the last time inventory levels were this clean and the product cycle was this strong? It just feels like you've called out advance fall orders. There were some shipments that pull through. I'm just wondering how that affects your overall top-line outlook, particularly in the U.S. as we go into the back half of the year. Thank you.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, I think we've reflected all those factors into the outlook that we've provided for the back half. And the first half we grew up – we grew 8.5% and the back half also contemplated to grow 8.5% and as you look at the cadence and flow between Q3 and Q4, given the strength of the fall 2019 wholesale order book, we are anticipating a low double-digit growth and have the confidence in order book and be able to deliver that in the third quarter. And then obviously the fourth quarter is growing at a slightly lower rate and that part reflecting that we've planned the business on more of a normalized basis relative to the favorable environment that we saw in the fourth quarter last year.

John Kernan

Analyst · Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Got it, still planning on a more normalized basis for the back half. Got it. All right, thanks guys. Best of luck.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Laurent Vasilescu with Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst · Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

Good afternoon, thanks for taking my question. I want a follow-up on Project CONNECT. It sounds like it's actually becoming a bigger benefit in the second quarter to the gross margin. Without getting into specifics for FY20 guidance, Jim is this Project CONNECT benefits only for these four quarters or should we kind of think about it continuing into FY20?

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

Well, I think the way I would look at it is certainly the step function improvement that we've seen at a gross margin. When you look at the 170 basis points of gross margin expansion that we achieved in 2018 and then the incremental 80 basis points of gross margin lift that we'll see in 2019, that's where you're going to see the substantial step function lift from a Project CONNECT standpoint. That said, there's a part of that project we put a lot of time and effort into ensuring that we developed sustainable processes. So the margin achievements that we’ve accomplished in the past couple of years that we're able to sustain that. And certainly our product creation teams and others throughout the business are very focused on continuing to drive gross margin improvement and other elements of the business that are ultimately going to drive EBITDA margin expansion as well.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst · Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, very helpful. And then I want to follow-up on Shift. Can you possibly talk about the [indiscernible] you are targeting? And are you working with key like National Retail Partners or are there more specialty stores? Any commentary, additional color will be very helpful.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

True, you bet, yes. So, we've talked about the company having a focus on footwear for quite some time and most of our largest customers are big sellers of footwear. So we know there's an opportunity from a channel perspective. As it relates to the Shift launch, we launched with our most important large customers, who have footwear businesses and that would include sporting goods guys such as Dick's Sporting Goods. And then we layered in energy accounts, which would include sneaker specific accounts that that in the past typically have not purchased Columbia's footwear, but also even at a mature state will not likely impact the total volume very significantly. So, we've had a strategic view of how we're going to watch it, both here in the U.S. and in Europe. And the expectations are that this will be a momentum building event, which can help us to really get our true cadence in footwear.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst · Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

Fantastic, best of luck.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, Laurent.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Perry with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Alex Perry

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Hey guys, congrats on a great quarter. Just first for Tim, can you just talk through what drove the overall momentum in the U.S. wholesale business? And then just as a follow-up on that, can you help us to think through how much of the growth was driven by advance fall 2019 order shipments?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Sure. Well, let me talk about the momentum items. First of all, the biggest single category was probably PFG. And it's an area where we don't have a lot of competition from our traditional – from brands that we traditionally compete with. The area of fishing apparel is enormously strong in the southern part of the United States. It's the single biggest outdoor activity and an area where we've worked diligently over the last 30 years to build a business that can help us to counteract our heavy involvement in outerwear. So I would say that's probably the leader. Additionally, we had great footwear sales. We have a really strong footwear product, which is now getting stride called the Newton Ridge, which was the heritage products for the company as well as very solid rainwear, which is just based on the amount of rain that the United States had. So those were the primary drivers of the good results in the first half. And maybe I'll ask Jim to talk a bit about the specifics numerically as it relates to advance orders in the fall.

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, I think in terms of timing and certainly to Tim’s point, the lion’s share or a good chunk of the U.S. wholesale revenue growth on the quarter related to spring 2019 and the order conversion. There is however a shift there as well as you're referring too. And so for fall 2019, earlier deliveries from Q3 into the first or latter part of June, it's a mid to high single-digit millions of dollars number. And so, if you neutralize for the fact – the effect of that, the wholesale business was up a low double-digit, high single-digit percent on the quarter, which by and large reflects the spring 2019 order conversion.

Alex Perry

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks a lot. And then just a follow up, can you talk through – the SOREL growth is really strong this quarter on top of strong growth last year. Can you talk about the momentum you're seeing there specifically in the sort of spring, summer styles? Thanks.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Certainly, well, the SOREL management team has been highly focused on pivoting the business to be winter plus. So for us to be successful in that product category, in that brand internationally as well as really in the U.S., we need to have product year round or retailers can keep the brand on the floor year round. And that that's going to mean emphasizing spring product and unique differentiated merchandise for spring. And that's what the SOREL team has delivered and the results have been really gratifying. Now I’ll bet, it's a smaller base, but we really believe the opportunity to make SOREL a billion dollar brand at some point in time is really there. But it's going to have to be a year round brand. And so, if we're able to pull off this winter plus strategy, which we’re certainly playing that forward now, we have a great opportunity with that brand.

Alex Perry

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. That's very helpful, best of luck.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Tracy Kogan

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. It's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I had a question on your DTC business in the U.S. I guess, can you first just clarify, did – were you saying in your release that the bricks-and-mortar comp was positive and maybe you could quantify that? And then secondly, you could just talk about the performance of your outlet stores versus your full priced stores. Thank you.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, we – as we said in the past, we really consider ourselves to be a wholesale company. We don't really report on typical retail comps or any of those specific metrics. But I can tell you that we're pleased with the results of the business and we believe that there's a large opportunity for us just based on the brand strength. So…

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, I just add as part of Tim's prepared remarks through the first half of the year, the U.S. DTC business grew a low double-digit percent. It was up a high single-digit percent when you look at just the second quarter alone. And certainly similar to other retailers that have reported with some of the warmer or colder weather rather in April and May, we saw some slowness through those two months and returned to nice growth as weather turned on to our favor in the month of June. And that's specific to the outlet stores.

Tracy Kogan

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Anderson with B. Riley FBR. Please proceed with your question.

Susan Anderson

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Nice job on the quarter. I guess I wanted to maybe touch on Mountain Hardwear a little bit, nice to see the increased sales there. And I guess what's the feedback you're getting from your wholesale customers are? They're getting more excited about the product as it improves and I guess, you know, any chance that they're willing to take on more products. And do you guys see maybe potentially some space gains for the brand over the next year or two? Thanks.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please proceed with your question.

Well, thank you. Yes, it's gratifying to see that brand finally starting to grow again. And it's really a function of the improvement in the product. And so, the business there will really rise and be fulfilled based on our wholesale business. So, the traditional specialty stores that has been buying Mountain Hardwear and hope that it will continue to perform well, but really happy to see the improvements that we've made in the product category – in the products with the best is yet to come in winter. The new team there was really [indiscernible]. Here we go, all right. Hello? We’re okay.

Operator

Operator

We’re okay.

Tim Boyle

Analyst

Next question I believe were…

Operator

Operator

I believe that came from near line, one moment.

Tim Boyle

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Komp with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah, hi. Thank you. I wanted just to start off following up on the beat for the quarter. It’s a pretty sizable beat versus where you had projected. And it looks like maybe you're flowing maybe about two thirds of that through to the full year. So I just wanted to ask kind of what the offsets you see are when you look out to the balance of the year.

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, John, this is Jim. So just to talk through the components of the beat on the quarter, so it effectively boiled down the three things. One, the top-line came in a bit better than our internal outlook to the tune of call it 15 million. A good chunk of that as I was describing earlier as it relates to our wholesale business with the fall 2019 and the earlier delivery is really what's driving that. And so by and large, that's a timing effect and that's why you're not seeing an increase in our full year revenue outlook. The other two components are the SG&A under spent in the quarter relative to our outlook in the income tax. And of course, in the case of the income tax, we've lowered the full year tax rate to 20% from 22%. And so, really the delta in here is on the SG&A and so we under spent by somewhere north of $10 million, half of which we've approved the outlook on the full year, the other half of which is effectively project related spend and other phasing of expenses planned for the latter part of the year. So when you look at it taken all together, $0.34 beat and we passed $0.20 of that on to the full year, a good chunk of that being tax, SG&A and then to a lesser degree given some of the share repurchases that we executed on the quarter is the other component.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. And maybe as a follow-up, I think you have touched on some of the factors, but looking at your – the cadence of your guidance for the year, the first half at least operating profit that you delivered would represent the pretty high portion of the full year and maybe higher than it's been in recent history. So is that – do you think that's all the shifts going on? Do you think it's a change in the seasonality of your business? Or is it conservative more appropriately in the back half? How would you characterize that?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

I mean, certainly, as we've planned that more normalized effect in the fourth quarter, I mean that could be some of what you’re seeing. And so that's all dependent upon a lot of factors whether you're talking rather a macro economic and whatnot, so we plan that as best we can based upon our historical norms, if you will. If you set that piece aside and look at how we planned the year and certainly we anticipate the third quarter grown at a faster rate just given the wholesale order book that we have been able to ship that in. I think the reason you're not seeing the operating margin expansion in the back half of the year because certainly we're anticipating continued gross margin expansion with the CONNECT benefits in the latter part of the year. Our SG&A rate, however – our SGNA grew, call it 9% in the first half. I think as you look at our outlook for the back half, you'll find it in the 11% to 12% range and that partially related to project spend. There's nothing new in the way of new initiatives or projects, but just the phasing of that. And in particular as we've recently gone live with the C1 and X1 projects, there's a cost as we've taken those online coupled with some of the strategic hires that we've made to get after the SOREL business as we want to continue to drive sustainable and profitable growth there. And then likewise, as Tim has discussed in terms of the Columbia brands footwear opportunity and really making sure that we're investing in the talent to continue to drive that business forward.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, great. Then maybe last one from me. In terms of the gross margin drivers for the year, I think you took out DTC backs, which had been a positive call out. I think you removed that now from the current outlook. So I just wanted to maybe clarify the drivers there and maybe you could just remind us on the e-commerce side what the main drivers you see of sustaining some of the momentum there.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, I think on the full year as it relates to gross margin, it really boiled down to a couple of factors. One, it's obviously going to be the favorable impacts of Project CONNECT to carry through the year. And then the most significant offset to that is just as planning on a more normalized basis relative to last year in which we were a lot less promotional and the effects of a positive environment. On the channel mix question that you've got, I mean the channel mix is probably slightly favorable, but it's not that meaningful and that really being a function of the growth that we're seeing in the wholesale business. Our fall 2019 order book is strong, so that the net positive in our line. And then John, your latter part of your question.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

It was just as you start the cycle better e-commerce performance, what you see is the ongoing drivers for that business?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Well, it's going to be us, continuing to do a increase our sophisticated use of digital channels to increase the business size and efficiencies. Again we want to reiterate that we're a wholesale company primarily and that the e-com business is used as a – is really an additional marketing tool. We ended up having great results and really as a function of the brand's strengths. So we’re really focused on a wholesale distribution company's products.

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, John I just had – we went live with the X1 platform in Europe and our product business here in the US during the quarter. And certainly our expectation over time is, that's a mobile first platform and with consumers increasingly shipping or transitioning over to more mobile device shopping that ought to improve conversion and improved performance within the e-commerce business. So we're making the right investments, really to drive that business going forward.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Understood. Thanks for taking all the questions.

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Duffy with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Jim Duffy

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Hi everyone. Hope you guys are doing well. I wanted to ask a couple of questions. – I wanted to ask a couple of questions specific to the overseas markets. Tim, can you give us an update on the European marketplace? You know, that guy did mid-single digit constant currency growth, I know that's not new but that's lower than we've been accustomed to. The prepared remarks, you spoke to challenges broadly across markets. Are there any markets that are worse than others, any that might be bright spots? Anywhere you’re seeing prospects for return?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Certainly. Well, overall I'd like to make sure everybody understands how important Europe is for the company and basically how small our business is by comparison to others and the fact that there's big opportunity for us in Europe. I think we've probably most – been most impacted in France and in the UK between the yellow vest movement and the Brexit discussions. Although we do have very strong performance in Spain and great connections with our customer there, I’ll quote in glaze as well as a strong business in Germany. So we were underperforming. What my personal expectations are and the plan is to continue to reinvest there, increase the brand awareness and to take advantage of what the opportunities in the European market.

Jim Duffy

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Great. And then in China, you put through some inventory this quarter and that certainly feels like part of the reset operation. What are some things that we in the investment community should be watching for in China to kind of benchmark your progress on the turn?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Certainly. Well it's – it's again, probably the single largest geographic opportunity for the company. We have very strong footwear business there with – and a new management team and the focus is going to be for us on refreshing our stores, continue to improve the merchandise offering and continuing the expansion of our e-com business. So I believe that we've got the right people in place to make sure the business grows. We just need to make sure that we got the proper investments in brand, and that the demand creation and the brand focus to allow us to take advantage of that. So I would expect that we're going to have modest growth there this year, but next year we should have more significant growth and in the future.

Jim Duffy

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Sounds good. Thanks for your thoughts.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Svezia with Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Chris Svezia

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Good evening, gentlemen. Great job on the quarter. I guess the first question I have is just on the direct business versus – global direct versus global wholesale. Any color or context you provided if we’re going to the back half of the year. I guess this is Q3, Q4, I guess Q4 on direct consumer I guess would be a little more maybe modest in the fourth quarter, just given the comparison and then Q3 maybe a little bit stronger on global wholesale. Am I thinking about that right?

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Yes, that's right Chris. I think on an annual basis we provide an update in terms of percentage of total business that B2C and e-com represents of our total. But as you’re thinking through the cadence and flow as we look at the fall 2019 order book that was taken across our wholesale and distributor businesses, we'll definitely see a stronger growth rate in the third quarter for that portion of the business. And then with B2C, certainly given the more challenging comps that we've got in the fourth quarter, we've normalized for that. So I would anticipate that just in terms of thinking through a cadence, and we feel lighter – a lighter growth rate there relative to normal run rate.

Chris Svezia

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Okay. And just, so I am clear about something. If by any chance there are favorability in weather maybe similar to something last year. I know last year you had some speculative inventory that you sold through it at better price. Just as you think about it this year, you still have that ability to maybe fulfill that demand, whether it's in DTC outlet online, if for whatever reason that came to fruition in the fourth quarter?

Jim Swanson

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Yes, I think there's certainly, there's – we'll have the inventory up to a certain level to deliver a better top line and a profit figure. But as we are here today, we've provided the best outlets that we can in light of all the factors and the order that we've got in hands and the trends that we're seeing in the business.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

And we really haven’t materially changed our focus that we had for the last 25, 30 years, which is modest, approach to inventory purchases on a speculative basis. So we have some but there, by no means extravagant or significantly different from prior periods.

Chris Svezia

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Okay, understood. And in a context of 7% to 8.5% revenue growth on the year, just any color between the core brands SOREL, Columbia, prAna, I know Mountain Hardwear just how it falls in the context to that 7% to 8.5% by some of those brands, if you could provide that?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Yes, from an overall standpoint, the positive we anticipate growth from all four brands and so we saw Mountain Hardwear return to growth in the second quarter and anticipate that to continue to accelerate into the back half of the year. In terms of where we'd see the lion's share of the growth, I mean certainly going to be with the Columbia brand and with SOREL, SOREL in particular when you look at that from a percentage standpoint. And then prAna’s 10 point outlook in the prepared remarks we're going to – what we intend to grow, but it'll be a – it'll be a lower rate of growth. So I'd probably leave with that.

Chris Svezia

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Okay. Fair enough. Last few things I have real quick. Just on the gross margin cadence. Is there anything you’re expecting improvement both in Q3 and in Q4? I mean, obviously Q4 is significantly less than you've seen throughout the year, but is it fair to say in both quarters or is it more heavily skewed to the third quarter at this point?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

It's in both quarters. Certainly the third quarter will be stronger than the fourth, just given those comps that we've talked about with regard to the fourth quarter. But we are anticipating gross margin expansion in each of the – each of the two quarters.

Chris Svezia

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Okay. And finally, just on C1, I'm just curious just what are you anticipating in terms of maybe some of the benefit with a better POS system? Maybe talk about loyalty opportunities and just maybe anything that, that we can provide as you go sort of into the back half. Any further thoughts about the development and maybe the benefit potentially this year or is that more really you think about 2020? A – Tom Cusick: Yes, it’s probably more 2020. Chris, this is Tom. We're using a 20-year old systems, so this is really modernizing the ERP across the application base.

Chris Svezia

Analyst · Wedbush. Please just you with your question.

Okay, understood. All right, thank you gentlemen. All the best.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kawamoto with D.A. Davidson. Please just see you with your question.

Michael Kawamoto

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Please just see you with your question.

Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions. Just first off you anniversaried the city attack plan with PFG footwear in Houston. How are you thinking about the longevity of the benefits of those attack plans? It sounds like you're maintaining momentum within those markets, but do you expect this to normalize a little bit going forward?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Please just see you with your question.

Yes, so we didn't – we didn't re-invest in Houston until to the level we did last year, although we had some modest residual impact on the business. So we are continuing to roll them out as you might – just to remind you, we had a fairly sizable city attack plan in Chicago last year and then we'll be using that plan both in New York City and the surrounding area as well as Denver for 2019 fall. So we're pleased with how those strategies work and the fact that there is residual momentum after the heavy up in those markets. So we'll be continuing to do that and we'll be rolling them out probably internationally as well.

Michael Kawamoto

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Please just see you with your question.

Yes, that was my follow-up question. Do you have some cities in mind internationally that you're looking at? Or is that still kind of more further down the line?

Tim Boyle

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Please just see you with your question.

Yes, it's still under negotiation right now for a European market [indiscernible]. We've had some focus in China on specific markets, including Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Michael Kawamoto

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Please just see you with your question.

Got it. Thanks guys and good luck for the rest of the year.

Tim Boyle

Analyst · D.A. Davidson. Please just see you with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand the call back over to Tim Boyle for closing remarks.

Tim Boyle

Analyst

Well thanks very much for your attention today. We look forward to talking to you again in October. And again, I might note that we have moved the date for our conference call in October to the 30th. So look forward to hearing – talking to you about our third quarter results then. Thank you.