Richard Fairbank
Analyst · Barclays
Thanks, Andrew. Slide 11 shows second quarter results in our Credit Card business. Credit Card segment results are largely a function of our domestic card results and trends, which are shown on Slide 12. The Discover acquisition was the dominant driver of second quarter domestic card results, including the impact of a partial quarter of combined operations, a combined quarter-end balance sheet and purchase accounting effects. Looking through the Discover impact, the combined domestic card business delivered another quarter of top line growth, strong margins and improving credit. Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 22%, which includes $26.5 billion of Discover purchase volume. Excluding Discover, year-over-year purchase volume growth was about 6%. Ending loan balances increased 72% and largely as a result of adding $99.7 billion of Discover card loans. Excluding Discover, ending loans grew about 4% year-over-year. And revenue was up 33% from the second quarter of 2024 driven largely by adding the partial quarter of Discover revenue. Excluding Discover, year-over-year revenue growth was about 8% driven by underlying growth in purchase volume and loans. Revenue margin for the quarter was 17.3%, including a 121 basis point impact from the partial quarter of combined operations and amortization of the purchase accounting fair value mark. Excluding these Discover impacts, revenue margin would have been 18.5%. The domestic card net charge-off rate was 5.25%, down 80 basis points from the prior year quarter. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 3.60%, down 54 basis points from the prior year. These metrics were impacted by the addition of Discover, which has historically had lower losses and delinquencies than Capital One. The delinquency metric was also impacted by aligning methodologies between Discover and Capital One. Capital One's legacy domestic card portfolio would have had a net charge-off rate of 5.50%, down 55 basis points year-over-year; and a 30-plus delinquency rate of 3.92%, down 22 basis points from the prior year. Capital One's card delinquencies have been improving on a seasonally adjusted basis since October of last year and our losses have been improving since January of 2025. Discover's card credit metrics peaked about a quarter later, but are now improving steadily following a similar path to what we observe on the legacy Capital One portfolio. Domestic card noninterest expense was up 42% compared to the second quarter of 2024. Operating expense and marketing both increased year-over-year. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.35 billion, up 26% year-over-year. Our choices in domestic card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our domestic card business. Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the domestic card business and build an enduring franchise with heavy spenders at the top of the market. Compared to the second quarter of 2024, domestic card marketing in the quarter included the addition of Discover marketing, higher direct response marketing, higher media spend and increased investment in premium benefits and differentiated customer experiences. As always, all of our marketing and origination choices are informed by our continuous monitoring of portfolio trends, market conditions, and consumer and competitor behaviors. Slide 13 shows second quarter results in our consumer banking business. Global payment network transaction volume from the May 18 close of the Discover acquisition through quarter end was about $74 billion. Auto originations were up 28% from the prior year quarter driven by overall market growth and our strong position to pursue resilient growth in the current marketplace. Consumer banking ending loan balances increased $5.6 billion or about 7% year-over-year. Average loans were up 6%. Compared to the year-ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew at 36% and average consumer deposits were up about 21% driven largely by the addition of Discover deposits. Looking through the Discover impact, our digital-first national consumer banking business continues to grow and gain traction, powered by our technology information and our compelling no fees, no minimums and no overdraft fees customer value proposition. Consumer banking revenue for the quarter was up about 16% year-over-year driven predominantly by the partial quarter of Discover as well as growth in auto loans. Noninterest expense was up about 37% compared to the second quarter of 2024 driven largely by the partial quarter of Discover as well as increased auto originations, the legal reserve addition that Andrew mentioned, higher marketing to drive growth in our national consumer banking business and continued technology investments. The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 1.25%, down 56 basis points year-over-year. Largely as the result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022, auto charge-offs are improving on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 4.84%, down 83 basis points year-over-year. Slide 14 shows second quarter results for our commercial banking business. Compared to the linked quarter, both ending and average loan balances were up 1%. Ending deposits were down about 2% from the linked quarter. Average deposits were down 4%. We continue to manage down selected less attractive commercial deposit balances. Second quarter revenue was up 6% from the linked quarter and noninterest expense was up by about 1%. The commercial banking annualized net charge-off rate for the second quarter increased 22 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.33%. The commercial criticized performing loan rate was 5.89%, down 52 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized nonperforming loan rate was down 10 basis points to 1.30%. As we close this presentation and before we open it up for Q&A, I want to pull up and reflect not just on the quarter but also on where we are. In the second quarter, bringing on Discover for a partial quarter and the related purchase accounting impacts dominated our reported results. But looking through these effects, our adjusted earnings top line growth, credit results and capital generation continued to be strong. We completed the Discover acquisition on May 18, and we continue to be very excited about the opportunity. Here are some early financial observations. They are, of course, still subject to change, but we wanted to share our thoughts with you. Let me start with integration costs. Our integration budget covers a wide array of expenses, including deal costs, moving Discover on to our tech stack, integrating their products and experiences, making additional investments in risk management and compliance, and integrating the talent and taking care of the associates along the way. The integration is off to a great start. But as we have gotten more granularity on each of these efforts, we expect our integration costs will be somewhat higher than our previously announced $2.8 billion. Let me turn now to synergies. We are on track to deliver the $2.5 billion in total net synergies we discussed on the April earnings call. There are significant cost savings and also significant real revenue synergies, and we have line of sight to achieving them. I also want to savor this moment and where we are. We are on the cusp of even greater opportunities down the road. These opportunities come both from this deal and also from Capital One's transformation to be at the frontier of a rapidly changing marketplace. These opportunities are exciting, but they will require significant investment to bring them home. Let me start with the opportunities with Discover. The revenue synergies we have already identified come from moving our debit business and a portion of our credit business onto the Discover network. To move more volume and capitalize on the tremendous scale benefits of the network, we need to achieve greater international acceptance and then build a global network brand. This will enable moving bigger spenders on to the Discover network. These additional moves require sustained investment for a number of years, and we will begin to undertake these investments first in acceptance and then when we get the network to critical mass, we will invest in the network brand. There are only 2 banks in the world with their own network, and we are one of them. We are moving to capitalize on this rare and valuable opportunity. With all the discussion of Discover, we can lose sight of the very important place legacy Capital One is in. We are in the 13th year of an all-in technology transformation. While most companies have invested in transforming technology at the top of the tech stack, in other words, leading with customer-facing applications, we have taken the much harder but ultimately necessary journey. We have been rebuilding the company from the bottom of the tech stack up, essentially building a modern technology company that does banking. As we move up the tech stack, the opportunities are accelerating. We are also the beneficiary of decades of investment in our data and analytics capabilities and the building of a well-known national brand. Together with our leading technology capabilities, they are the enablers of our many opportunities. Take our retail bank. The universal playbook in banking is to build a national bank through acquisitions. However, we are doing it organically on the shoulders of our modern tech stack, our full-service digital banking offerings, our thin physical distribution of showroom branches, and our national brand. We are enjoying a lot of traction, and the acquisition of a network propels us forward even more. Building the national bank requires sustained investment in marketing, and we are doing that, and we expect to lean in even more. Let me turn to our card business. After building a mass market credit card business, we declared in 2010, we were launching a quest to win at the top of the market with heavy spenders. Few card players have chosen sustainably to take on this quest. We have been steadfast. We have had a lot of success in this journey, but it is a long one. Our 2 biggest competitors are investing heavily, and we know we will need to keep leaning into this big opportunity. As we have moved up the tech stack, we have seized the opportunity to pursue emerging growth opportunities across our company, some of the salient ones you have seen and hopefully experience, like Capital One Shopping and Capital One Travel. Another example is Auto Navigator, which is a 3-party platform designed to reduce friction for consumers and dealers in buying and financing a car. Most importantly, we continue to invest in our modern technology stack. The gap between the modern technology companies fully in the cloud, built on modern applications and data, and the rest of corporate America continues to grow. The modern tech companies are well positioned to win as the world continues to evolve, and we have spent years to become one of them. The rage of the world is AI. Some aspects of the AI revolution will be broadly accessible to all companies and other aspects will be very exclusive. Most companies will benefit from the transformation in how work is done that will be available through third-party AI tools but only the companies built on a modern tech stack and deeply invested in data will be in a position to reinvent their business model to put AI at the heart of operations, risk management and the customer experience. The opportunities are transformational, and we are well positioned in that quest. But these opportunities require sustained investment in AI and in AI talent, and we are doing that. In a company built for innovation and organic growth, I am struck by the number of compelling opportunities for innovation and value creation that we see. These opportunities are made possible by the choices we have made over the last many years. As I have been saying, these opportunities require investment, and for many of them, timing is critical as we strive to seize competitive advantage. Collectively, these investments across Discover and legacy Capital One are significant but they also will be the basis for our sustained growth and strong returns over the longer term. The opportunities we are describing here have been years in the making, and you have heard me talking about them for quite some time. Importantly, the earnings power of our combined company that we envision on the other side of the deal integration is consistent with what we assumed at the time of our deal announcement even though some individual variables have moved along the way. When I reflect on our journey from founding the company to where we are today, we got here by always working backwards from where winning is and driving the continual transformations and investments to get there. The choices we made over the years also created the opportunity for us to acquire Discover. And in the spirit of that quest, 38 years after the founding idea for Capital One, we find ourselves as well positioned as we've ever been to drive future success and value creation. And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?