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CNX Resources Corporation (CNX)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 26, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to CONSOL Energy's First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Tyler Lewis. Please go ahead.

Tyler Lewis - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, John, and good morning to everybody. Welcome to CONSOL Energy's First Quarter Conference Call. We have in the room today Nick DeIuliis, our President and CEO; Dave Khani, our Chief Financial Officer; and Tim Dugan, our Chief Operating Officer of our E&P division. Today, we'll be discussing our first quarter results and we've posted slides through our website. As a reminder, any forward-looking statements we make or comments about future expectations are subject to business risk which we've laid out for you in our press release today, as well as in previous Securities and Exchange Commission filings. We will begin our call today with prepared remarks by Nick, followed by Dave and then Tim. But before I turn it over to Nick, I would like to quickly go over some housekeeping items regarding some changes that we have made this quarter. To start, we have posted two slide decks through our Investor Relations portion of our website. The first presentation is a smaller earnings call slide deck, which is meant to tie to our prepared remarks this morning. The second slide deck is our broader company presentation which has more slides and information beyond the scope of what we might be covering on this call. Also, CONSOL is moved to provide more disclosure in the EBITDA reconciliation table which is found at today's press release. We are now providing an EBITDA reconciliation for the quarter across the E&P division, coal division, other segment and total company. The other segment represents expenses from various other corporate activities that are not allocated to the E&P or coal divisions. These items would include things such as pension expense, bank fees, interest expense and income taxes. Also starting this quarter, CONSOL Energy has made certain adjustments to the financial statements to reflect the…

Tyler Lewis - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Tim. This concludes our prepared remarks. John, if you could please open the line up for questions at this time.

Operator

Operator

Certainly. And first in line, we have a Holly Stewart with Scotia Howard Weil. Please go ahead.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Management

Good morning, gentlemen. First question, Dave, you were talking pretty fast. Just to clarify on the volume guidance, you said potentially the lower end of the guidance range, if you stayed at that low end of CapEx, meaning no new rig activity, correct? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: No. What I said was we pushed off basically two pads and so our capital could come at the lower end. We did not change our production guidance.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Management

Okay, okay. Thank you for the clarification. And then there was a mention either within the slide deck or the press release on improvement in takeaway infrastructure. I was just wondering if you could give some more color there and maybe help us understand what's the latest on the Nexus project? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, we look at – Holly, the takeaway infrastructure as a whole, we look at the projects coming in the next couple of years, there's a total of about 22.5 Bcf worth of projects out there. And we have gone through all those and risked them down based on timing, probability, cancelations, et cetera. And if you risk that down to about 50%, that takes you down to about 11.5 Bcf of capacity that will be coming on in the next couple of years, most of that coming on late 2017, 2018 timeframe. We expect to see about a 6.3 Bcf increase and supply across the basin over that period. So that leaves about a 5 Bcf surplus in capacity. But currently, with the 3 Bcf to 6 Bcf a day of oversupply, we think that'll balance out. And that really doesn't take into consideration any demand growth or constraint improvement projects that may take place over that time. So we think that the market's going to remain stressed given this current supply situation through – into 2017. And as pipeline projects come on, we think we'll start to see some relief. But that really kind of falls in line with our current hedging strategy. Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: Yeah. And Nexus, we believe the Nexus project is moving forward. We feel very good about it.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Management

Okay. Great, gentlemen. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Neal Dingmann with SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Good morning, guys. Say, just more about – I know no plans yet for the drilling rigs yet at least at this time. But just you guys as a start, Tim, for you or Nick for the guys, you've obviously had great success up by that Gaut well, that one Utica well you pumped up there (33:15). Thoughts about maybe potentially more drilling some Utica up there, as well as if you could just talk about maybe some other areas for the Utica in general? Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: Well, I think with the results we're seeing and they continue to improve up there, so that is an area that we're certainly excited about and would expect there certainly will be more activity up there. When we look at rigs returning, obviously, in the Utica we're looking at Monroe County and then the area of Brown to Gaut. There's some additional complexity down in Southwest PA that we're still working through. We've collected a lot of data there. We're just as excited about Southwest PA down in Greene County. But with the geology being a little less complex in the Gaut area and Monroe County, those would be the areas that we would return to first. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And, Neal, on the – so that's the where and the question about when. It really goes back to our philosophy of wanting to grow NAV per share and being good capital allocators of the operating cash flow of the company. So, when you look at the drivers, you start doing the math behind those decisions, we're looking at the rate of returns in the NAV of the where that Tim just laid out of dry Utica and a…

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Great detail, Nick. And then just last one. I'm just curious, I saw in the press release you guys talked about these tests and these plugless completions. Tim, just anything you can say about either that or some other efficiencies, but potentially continue to improve the performance of the price. Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: Well, I think we've got – we've done a lot of work offline since we've drilled these first couple wells looking at what other operators have done, and we think that we're very confident that the potential is there to get the costs down quickly, down below that $20 million mark very quickly. And we expect that the next couple of wells we'll be in the sub $15 million range. A lot of it – and when you talk about where we go next, going back to the Gaut, with it being a little less complex, that lends itself to getting our costs down quicker as well. So we've gone back and really done a review of each of the seven wells that have been drilled and where we can improve and what we can do. Everything from bit selection to fluid systems, how we're completing them. We think all that just – it falls in line which is going to help us bring our costs down pretty quickly.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Great. Thanks for all the details, guys.

Operator

Operator

Now to go to Lucas Pipes with FBR. Please go ahead. Lucas N. Pipes - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Hey. Good morning, everybody, and good job again. Quick question just on 2017. Obviously, there's still a lot of variables that go into production next year. But I wondered if you could give us a flavor, kind of what range we could be looking at depending on the decision to – if you decide to drill later this year. Now what is the potential range of outcomes when it comes to 2017 production, maybe just some parameters for us to think about? Thank you. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Yeah. So I don't – we won't give you a percentage range, but I'll just tell you the parameters. We're still sitting with a large amount of DUCs, some – majority of them are wet, so a function will be what is the – what does wet pricing look like relative to dry. Nick mentioned that in the next few months, we'll have a determination of do we actually bring rig activity back in second half of this year. We have debottlenecking projects and we have a lot of constrained production. Tim mentioned there's over 100 wells with a lot of constrained production. And so do we have debottlenecking projects as well. So the range of outcomes is really going to be a function of all those things, and with the near-term probably being – do we bring a rig back sooner than later. Lucas N. Pipes - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Got it. Thank you. And then good job on the Buchanan sale, and thank you also for the additional details on that this morning. Now, when it comes to future asset sales, do you have processes running right now? And if so, any specific asset package that you would highlight that you're maybe more active in right now, and maybe also even timing in terms of where we could maybe see more activity? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Yeah. Lucas, we actually always have asset sale processes going on. It's just part of our normal course of business. As we mentioned before, just to put it in context, we had 30 processes going on. We completed about six of them including with the Buchanan met sale, so we do have processes going on. We will not comment on any specifics because, as you know, Lucas, sometimes we pull the trigger and sometimes we don't, and even the ones that we don't, we sometimes we learn from the process and we bring them back out at some point in the future, so... Lucas N. Pipes - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Great. Well, good luck with everything and I'll jump back in the queue. Thank you. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Thanks, Lucas.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jeffrey Campbell of Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Management

Good morning and congratulations on the quarter. First question I wanted to ask was regarding CONSOL's strategy to transition to an independent E&P company. Does that ultimately – will you continue to hold on to CNXC LP units as a fully independent E&P? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Over time, our strategy looks at CNXC as a vehicle where the remaining 80% interest that we have in the Pennsylvania mining complex will ultimately reside. When that happens, how that happens, what happens with our LP units over time, those are all subject to the individual conditions as things unfold. So, ultimately, long-term, I think, the way to think about it is 98% of the Bailey complex of the Pennsylvania mining operations ends up in CNXC, what happens to the GP at 2%? Again, to be determined but the work to get from where we're at now to that endpoint is all going to be subjected to what we see with windows opening and all the variables that drive those. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Yeah. And I'd just say the float will probably get bigger and a minimum probably – or a percentage ownership will come down just as you naturally drop in the asset and they need some sort of financing over time. But as far as us selling LP units right now, we have no determination that we would sell anything today.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Management

Thanks. That was very helpful. I was just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on the plugless completions that you cited as significantly reducing well completion times? And also do you have any other experiments ongoing like maybe diversion fluids or other tech that's interesting to know about? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Yes. The plugless completions we've tested and we think that's probably the next big step in the reduction of our operational cycle times. A typical well now, when you look at a six-well pad, we spend 30-plus days drilling plugs on those six wells in running tubing. With the plugless completions, we – it's basically just – it's a combination of our hybrid cleanouts that we have done. So we're running in and making a cleanout run with our production tubing. We pumped the bed off in the bottom and we hang our tubing off. So it's essentially a day to a day-and-a-half per well, so we're saving several days per well. And so we're – we think that that has a lot of potential. And then we've also tested diversion fluids. We just did a well here recently where we tested plugless completions using diversion fluids to avoid plugs at all, and that certainly helps with the volume of fluid you pump and minimizing flush volumes and making sure you don't overflush each stage. So we're looking at other technologies but the plugless completions are probably one of the biggest things we're looking at now that's going to be a real savings from a time standpoint and cost.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Management

Thanks for the color. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go to Michael Dudas with Sterne Agee. Please go ahead.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Management

Good morning, gentlemen. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Management

First question is, maybe for Nick or Tim, appreciate your discussion about firm transportation capacity and the outlook there. What about ethane crackers and other opportunities to utilize some of that capacity? Is there anything you're seeing in the market that could be a little bit more positive thinking that with get some plants (43:31) now for the next 6 months to 12 months? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Up in this region, the topic of an ethane cracker and if it's going to be built, when it's going to be built, where it's going to be built, it's been all the rage over the past probably three years to four years. It's been that long actually.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Management

I know. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And we've always known that, that's sort of the last and in some ways most meaningful leg of the demand story of natural gas, the Marcellus and Utica where you start to see that manufacturing renaissance where the demand centers for natural gas are built now right on top of the fields themselves. So it's very important but recognizing is longer-term. When you look at when this talk started and the potential for this began and where we're at today, I think there's a couple big questions that were looming four years ago that have been definitively answered. One was just the geological question of can we extract ethane in significant quantities on a reliable basis, a low cost basis, to justify the expenditure investment for a cracker facility itself. I think the industry has resoundingly answered that question in the affirmative which gives I think more confidence and derisk a big investment decision for the entities that would build and own the cracker facility. And then the next question comes down to just to the timing of the decision itself. And when you look at the supply projections that we see within those reasonable bands of different sets of assumptions, our view is the one to two cracker facilities are justified within this region. Now where they are? Are they in Western Pennsylvania or Eastern Ohio or North or West Virginia? When did they get actual construction started up and running? Those are things that require a crystal ball much more accurate than ours. But the stories there, the stories have gotten better because of the, sort of, uncertainty around supply and surety of ethane being addressed. And now it's just a question of many to those one to two projects.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Management

Agreed. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: There's a – there are four big crackers coming online next year down to the Gulf Coast. So we are starting to see the build out actually curve.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Management

That is correct, Dave, and should be more to come coming forward. My second question would be I'm – with the terrific job you've done on your cost in your business, I'm sure vendors have been supportive of that in the sense that there's been probably pretty good discussions relative to your pricing and such. How does that look today? And if things work out with many of your variables to bring rigs on until you get more aggressive on the drilling and the volume and such, do you think the capital – pretty much (46:19), capital cost leakage on the way up, you think, given where market is right now and what you're talking to with your vendors? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Well, I think there's two parts of our cost reductions. There's the organic reductions and then there's certainly some that were driven or aided by current market conditions and that certainly helped get our vendor cost down. But the vendor – the drops in vendor costs are not all tied to current market, and a lot of it's tied to the work our supply chain group has done in working with vendors, finding better ways to do things and make our cost structure more efficient. So we think we'll be able to maintain most of the cost savings that we have. Certainly, there will be some movement upwards when the industry – when commodity prices move back up. But we think the impact of that will be relatively small compared to the overall cost savings we've been able to identify and take advantage of. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: When you look at all the inroads we've made on efficiencies and costs, whether it's E&P team, corporate team, what the CNXC group has done over the Pennsylvania mining complex side, the majority of those gains and efficiencies are things that fundamentally have been a result of changes in the way we approach our business. And those are the types of things that our view is we grab onto and hold onto no matter what the commodity does. They stick. They stay with you. So that's a big area of attention that we're thinking through in getting that even though you're in a depressed commodity trough in the market right now, we realize that that's going to change. And when it changes, the biggest part of this story is we hold onto all these gains that we just secured and we don't lose them as has often been the case in the cycles of the commodities that we produce and operate within.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Management

Yeah. No doubt the numbers are showing that up in your favor definitely, Nick. I appreciate your comment. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that will conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll turn it back to the company for any closing remarks. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, John, and thank you everyone for joining us this morning. We appreciate your interest in CONSOL Energy and look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Thank you.