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CNX Resources Corporation (CNX)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 27, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to CONSOL Energy's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over the Director of Investor Relations, Tyler Lewis. Please go ahead.

Tyler Lewis - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everybody. Welcome to CONSOL Energy's third-quarter conference call. We have in the room today Nick DeIuliis, our President and CEO; Dave Khani our Chief Financial Officer; Jim Grech, our Chief Commercial Officer; Tim Dugan, our Chief Operating Officer of our E&P Division; Jimmy Brock, our Chief Operating Officer of our Coal Division and Chief Executive Officer of CNX Coal Resources. Today we'll be discussing our third-quarter results. We have posted slides to our website. As a reminder, any forward-looking statements we make or comments about future expectations are subject to business risk which we have laid out for you in our press release today as well as in our previous SEC filings. We will begin our call today with prepared remarks by Nick, followed by Dave and then Tim. Jim Grech and Jimmy Brock will then participate in the Q&A portion of the call. With that, let me start the call with you, Nick. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining us. Before we turn it over to Dave Khani I want to provide some general thoughts, highlight a few areas, some of which the team will touch upon in greater detail this morning. Now back on our second-quarter call we started that by emphasizing the 18-month plan that we are executing in order to weather the current environment. We'd like to reemphasize that 18-month plan because we think it's incredibly important that we take a long view of where we're heading as a company and as an industry. Those who make the prudent decisions now in terms of controlling expenses and deploying capital and pragmatically managing the balance sheet, they're going to be rewarded in the long run and that's exactly what we're doing.…

Tyler Lewis - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Tim. And Ryan, at this time can you please open the call for questions?

Operator

Operator

Okay. Our first question comes from Pavan Hoskote with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Pavan P. Hoskote - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks a lot. Good morning, everyone. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Pavan P. Hoskote - Goldman Sachs & Co.: A couple of questions on the cost structure to start with. Now on the E&P side, you break out unit production costs, transportation costs and taxes but when we reconcile these costs with the E&P cash costs that you report on your income statement we typically see additional costs per quarter of about $50 million per quarter. Can you talk a little bit about the nature of these costs and whether we should expect a reduction going forward? And then on the coal side there seems to be a pretty significant reduction in costs quarter-on-quarter. Can you talk about whether that is circular or one time? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Okay. So the $50 million of additional costs some of that would be in unused FT. That would be in some of the compensation plans that we have as well and we could provide a breakout for you if you like further offline. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Pavan, there's a couple line items, the corporate expense line item which has un-utilized FT in it. There's also the G&A. We provide a breakout for those line items in our guidance in our investor deck now. Pavan P. Hoskote - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it. And then on the coal side, there was a pretty significant reduction quarter-on-quarter. Is that something we should assume going forward, or what are some one-time items in there? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Good morning, gentlemen. Say, Nick or David, quick question on the asset sales. I'm looking and to me, your liquidity appears actually quite decent, I mean, around $1 billion or so. But I've heard some others say – definitely some numbers they throw out on what you – their thoughts on what you have to raise here in the near term or further out. Just any color you could add. I know you've got a number of packages out there. Your thoughts on either what you think or what you'd like to sort of sell on an asset value either near term or a little bit into 2016. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think that the first thing to keep in mind is that if you look at the plan between now and year-end 2016, our plan that we've communicated is an organic free cash flow plan. Meaning that it's exclusive – it's a free cash flow plan exclusive of asset sales that we're talking about here. So the asset sales would be additive and, again, the use of proceeds there would go towards liquidity and debt. Now with respect to the magnitude, timing and specifics, we purposely didn't want to say much there because of the sensitivity of where they're at other than to say we've got 30 of these processes running, give or take, concurrently. So there's, again, a collection of assets that could statistically hit at different points in time. And, Dave, if you want to add some thoughts to that? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Sure. So from a liquidity standpoint, I think we're almost -we're exactly where we want to be. From a leverage ratio, our goal is to be down in the three range or lower. And so the asset sales will effectively help us solve for how we get there. So it depends on if we sell all non-generating-EBITDA assets. We could get there with a certain number. If we sell some generating-EBITDA assets, we'll need a little bit higher because we'll lose some EBITDA. So we're trying to solve for effectively liquidity and leverage ratio. And as Nick said, we have lots of processes going on of which we've got a lot of competition on each asset and we have competition between each asset. And we'll execute on the ones we think are the best ones and there are going to be times when we pull things back because we think that the value isn't what we're going to get.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

No. And, guys, Nick, that's a great point that the free cash flow is exclusive of that. Let me ask on that free cash flow kind of assumptions around that, I guess particularly with what's going on. I think I've got you a little over 30% hedged. What are you assuming for prices, either coal or gas, when you're looking at that assumption? Or anything you can say around your assumptions to base on that free cash flow? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Yeah. So we give you – in the slide deck we'll give you the – we give you a lot of the line itemized so you can go in there. And we made some adjustments for a little bit of the basis and/or the realizations on some of the liquids. For the coal side, we're almost 75% locked up. For the E&P side, we're actually about – on the gas side we're about 68% to 70% roughly and growing. And so we're almost there on where we want to be on the gas side and we've layered on a bunch of basis hedges. So we really are for the most part locked in on the revenue side with a little bit more to go. And I don't know if, Jim, you wanted to add anything to it. James C. Grech - Chief Commercial Officer & Executive VP: I would like to add on the coal contracting side, both Nick and Dave had said in their comments that we're in that 74% range contracted right now and we do expect to be at 90%-plus by the end of the year and we're on path to do that. So we will be locking in those sales on the coal side by the end of the year. And the hedging, as David said, we're very close to where we want to be as far as getting all of the basis hedges in place along with the NYMEX hedges that we already have.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then the last question, if I could, just Nick, maybe for Tim, after this – I thought it was a tremendous result in Monroe and then obviously the result you've had – I think the Gaut well speaks for itself – how are you going to attack the Utica dry gas? Or just the Utica in general next year, given sort of the massive acreage that you all have? That's all I have. Thanks. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Generally, and Tim can follow up with some details here, but generally we really see, I'll call it, three to four promising areas of dry Utica. One of course is Central Pennsylvania which is Gaut. There's over 100,000 acres that we control in the dry Utica up in that range. And this flow data and test data will tell us more and more about what to expect from well profiles. The second of course is Monroe. We've always been excited about Monroe, frankly, just because of what the geology told us and what also the other third-party well data were indicating. And this is better than that. So I feel good about that, and that's of course a 100% controlled area. We quoted a number of locations, that's an opportunity there to not just have stack pays but to control the pace of activity and production growth for the next two to three years. And then the third and fourth areas are, of course, Greene County, PA, with our GH well that's coming in in January, as Tim said. Coupled with what we've got going on with opportunity on the dry Utica in the panhandle of West Virginia. Noble, our partner on the Marcellus side, will be looking at a JV Utica well result…

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Thanks for all the details, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Sussman with Clarkson. Please go ahead.

Jeremy R. Sussman - Clarkson Capital Markets

Analyst · Clarkson. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thanks very much for taking my question. I guess, first, you talked about being free cash flow positive next year. Obviously E&P CapEx coming down is a big year-over-year delta. So I guess, first, can you remind us what level of asset sale proceeds you assume in that number, and then, second, maybe go though some of the more specific productivity initiatives that you're undertaking on coal or gas? Thank you. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Sure. So, Jeremy, I think before what we said in the second quarter was that we would need somewhere between $75 million and $125 million to generate free cash flow end sum. What we're saying today is with all the things that we've done in locking in revenue and taking costs out, we will be free cash flow neutral in the fourth quarter and we will be free cash flow positive in 2016 with zero asset sales and zero dropdowns.

Jeremy R. Sussman - Clarkson Capital Markets

Analyst · Clarkson. Please go ahead.

Got you. Okay, that's helpful. And maybe just changing gears, David, we've seen a couple of coal bankruptcies the past quarter so obviously these have been high-cost met coal producers but at the same time you've divested a lot of coal assets and legacy liabilities over the past couple of years. I guess what I'm getting at is, for argument's sake, if there are further bankruptcies in this space, is there a risk that some of these liabilities could flow back through CONSOL or do you feel pretty comfortable about where you stand today? Thank you very much. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Jeremy, it's a good question and we've been getting it too so thanks for asking this question on the call and hopefully we can put it to bed. We have received a bunch of enquiries about the possibility of legacy liabilities from Murray Energy coming back to CONSOL, and you will recall that in December 2013 CONSOL sold the subsidiary of, to Murray Energy, the stock of CONSOL's Consolidated Coal Company subsidiary and other subsidiaries that had held certain UMWA pension, retiring, medical and other liabilities. The transaction was structured as a sale of stock of these subsidiaries. CONSOL and Murray Energy exchanged fair value in that transaction with CONSOL receiving $850 million of cash for the stock of CCC. The subsidiaries of those stock that CONSOL sold were generating sufficient cash that satisfied the liabilities and those liabilities remain the liabilities of those subsidiaries, so what I'm saying is we think it's really unlikely that those liabilities will come back to CONSOL and we are fairly confident.

Jeremy R. Sussman - Clarkson Capital Markets

Analyst · Clarkson. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you very much.

Tyler Lewis - Director-Investor Relations

Management

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Jon Wolff with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Morning.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Just looking at the handout on the Gaut well in Westmoreland, obviously it came off a big peak which is expected. I'm just trying to understand from the 20 million a day or so that you're producing now, the 25 to 30 psi drawdown per day, does that keep the well relatively flat at a plateau level until you reach line pressure or do we expect declines, sort of ratable declines? Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: Well we're still in the middle of our test and the pressure decline is getting shallower and shallower each day. In the last 24 hours it dropped about 28 pounds so pressures are remaining higher than what we had originally anticipated. We're not going to reach radial flow through this flow period, but we'll be able to take that data and extrapolate and make some estimates, but we're halfway through the flow period so I don't think we're ready to talk about what we think that well's going to do but we certainly expect that it's going to flow at a stable rate for some period of time. But I don't know that we're ready to say that it's going to do that for three months, six months, nine months.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Right. Can you tell us what the initial pressure psi was and where we are today? Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: We're still over 9,000 pounds. I believe we were at about 9,100 pounds today and we started out after the extended shut-in period where we were installing our production equipment, we were just under 10,000 pounds, about 9,940.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. So from a linear standpoint if I take 25 psi to 30 psi per day, that's suggests like a seven, eight-month plateau and the line pressure is – what? – 500 or 1,000? Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: I guess that's the – that would – your math. That's your math, yes.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. I guess what I'm trying to ask is does the plateau rate, do you stay relatively close to the plateau rate until you hit line pressure? Or are there declines expected, some amount of declines? Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: Well, you know our technical team is analyzing all the data. At some point, yeah, it's got to decline. I don't think we're going to hold it at 20 million or 30 million a day until we hit line pressure, but we're not ready to say how long we think that, that flat rate is going to hold. But it will be a managed pressure decline. That's the reason we're doing this testing. We want to understand the extent of the reservoir. This is going to give us more information to help us design our fracture, our simulation times on the next wells more optimally, and also understand the unilateral spacing between wells and understand the drawdown of pressures as we produce these wells further and further.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. And last one on that, obviously you're trying to monetize assets quickly. Not a lot of drilling rigs, or no drilling rigs running. Do you think about putting a little more activity here to try to solve this one more quickly? Or is it better to just watch the well for a while? Timothy C. Dugan - Chief Operating Officer-Exploration & Production: I think the data will tell us much more than throwing additional capital on the learning curve. I think the data will give us the learning curve that we need. And you get into sort of the first, second quarter of 2016, we should be sitting in a position where we've got an order of magnitude more confidence in which of those four sub-areas of the dry Utica we want to look towards when you get into 2017 and beyond on production growth, and to what extent those activity levels are warranted. So we're able to get the data and the insight and learning curve that we need based off of the test program for the dry Utica that we've already laid out and we're watching the data on currently. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I mean if you think about it, we'll have seven data points to look at, probably more than anybody else in the industry. So we should get to a pretty fast decision point. And that's why we put a band around the capital number of $400 million to $500 million, so we give ourselves the flexibility if we want to add back activity based on the Utica results we can do it.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. In Ohio on the Hess JV, are there no rigs running? Anything completing? And I believe the (48:08) is done now? Is that accurate? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: (48:15) is pretty much exhausted, and I think we pretty much have stopped activity as well. It's not economic really to want to drill wet wells today.

Jonathan D. Wolff - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thank you. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Holly Stewart with Scotia Howard Weil. Please go ahead. Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.: Morning, gentlemen. A couple of questions, first what was driving the production beat for the quarter? And then maybe an extension upon that would be are you still expecting the same amount of ducks as you head into 2016? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I think the production improvements this year are two-fold. One is just timing of getting some wells online and the quality of those wells. We're seeing, continuing to see better results than what we had anticipated. And the other big factor is some of our midstream de-bottlenecking projects with the loop line we're laying in North Nineveh has contributed significantly. We've had an additional tap we've put on a NFG line and we've been able to take advantage of some interruptible volumes there. And those two combined have contributed to the majority of the production growth. Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.: So same kind of expectation for the number of ducks heading into 2016? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. If anything we could actually have a little bit more if we wanted to manage that production growth rate. Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. And then maybe along the same lines is, do you have much in the 20% growth number for the Dry Utica for next year? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Just the seven wells that we are drilling this year that some will be coming on at different points over the next several months. Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. And…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hey. Good morning, guys. Just a question on Hess. I guess it was a headline that hit Bloomberg a little over a week ago or so that maybe they would be looking to exit the JV. Would you – I know you kind of consider that core acreage, but would you consider exiting with them or is there a – do you have a right of first refusal, would you actually buy their stake? Is that something you're looking at? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, you know, we don't comment on specific assets so it's hard for us to answer that question. So just know we have multiple processes going on and when we feel ready to announce something, we'll announce a sale. Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Right. Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: And then maybe just an update on domestic met contracts. How are those shaping up for next year? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Evan, in our domestic contracting front, we're going to probably see an approximate doubling of the tons that we put on the domestic market year-over-year from 2015 to 2016. We're probably in the range of 20%, give or take, domestic tons this year and we expect to be in the 40% to maybe mid to upper 40% range by the time we're done with our contracting for 2016, which we're in the middle of right now. Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Does it feel –…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Brandon Blossman with Tudor Pickering Holt. Please go ahead. Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Good morning, guys. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Hey, Brandon. Brandon Blossman - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Just looking for any incremental color on how basis moves over the next two or three quarters? And kind of specifically with (55:40) now commercial, does that change your realization picture? And the narrowing of basis that you're projecting, is that a seasonal trade? Or is that related to some incremental infrastructure coming online? David Michael Khani - Chief Financial Officer & Director: Well, Brandon, the basis we do have with our portfolio for next year, we've got about 47% to 50% of the portfolio covered, NYMEX and basis. So let's just say we have approximately half of our portfolio covered basis-wise for next year and we're working on increasing that percentage every day, looking to increase it. So for the half that is exposed to market, it varies greatly by season with the different sales points that we have. And for example in the first quarter of next year, we're probably looking flat to negative $0.10 type of basis. And then as you get into the middle of the year we're into the $0.55 to $0.65 negative basis, and then get to the end of the year and you're in a negative $0.40 basis. So it varies by time of year. So in that half of the book that we have exposed, overall average basis would probably be in the negative $0.40 to negative $0.50 for the year for the total book that we have…

Operator

Operator

And, due to time, our final question will come from the line of Michael Dudas, with Sterne Agee. Please go ahead.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst

Let me big picture here for Nick, or the panel. Given where net gas prices are, and coal prices are, it seems like we're reliving the winter of 2011 and 2012. How better positioned, or different, is CONSOL to weather and recover from this environment than it was three years ago? It's certainly not being reflected by what the stock prices is reflecting in the near term here, despite everybody's doom and gloom on energy prices. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Mike, it's a little bit of two different stories on the coal and E&P sectors. On the E&P sector, I think Dave mentioned that we're seeing activity levels and capital expenditure levels starting to finally shift within a rationalized level of activity, and capital expenditures that reflect that quantity.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst

Good. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So we're starting to see those responses, as we speak. On the coal side, a little bit of a different situation, where – from our perspective, we've seen, within the United States, a significant and a permanent shift of market share on the generation grid from coal, to natural gas. And that significant and permanent shift is going to require a significant, permanent supply response – emphasis on both significant and permanent. And we've seen some of that. I think we're going to see a lot more of that as time goes on so that's more of a fundamental change that we're watching the fallout occur as we speak versus E&P more your traditional activity level responding to pricing forwards.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst

Perfect. And the follow-up is looking at your potential on dropdowns for coal in 2016, any thoughts of visibility relative to the performance and how you guys are thinking about it given the current environment? Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I would just say we modeled in a 20% drop every year as sort of a base way to do it, but I would say we also created a lot of flexibility, timing and sizing and ability of how to finance it so there's a lot of ways in which we can do this. We'll watch and see and figure out how we want to drop it in but know that we think about that every week.

Michael S. Dudas - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst

Excellent. Thanks, gentlemen. Nicholas J. DeIuliis - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Tyler Lewis - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Great. Thank you. Thank you, everyone. This concludes our third quarter earnings call. Thank you all for joining.