William J. Lyons
Management
Well, for the first quarter, obviously, a lot of those rates were negotiated, this time, last year for the fiscal year which begins April 1 through March 31. So there is some enjoyment of higher rates in the first quarter. Our prediction is that, based on Buchanan producing between the range that we gave you on Page 5, I think it is in the release, we believe that our Buchanan Noble ton sales will be strong. We will end 2012 with about the same beginning inventory of roughly 200,000 tons that we started the year with. I mean, the market, for any type of coal overseas right now, especially in metallurgical coal, has slowed down. We believe that China will come back. There are signs that the Chinese government is already starting to release the necessary funds in order to be able to stabilize the economy by holding down inflation. As you well know, the government of China is going to change here this October. And in recent years, when this has happened, there's always been a smooth transition. So we see the government drawing perhaps even slightly more money into the Chinese economy which will allow us to be able to perform. And a big part of this is vessel rates. And as we look forward and try to get our arms around these vessel rates, vessel rates are broken down into 3 categories. The first category, the trans-Atlantic rates, they fall on over the last 3 months. The U.S. East Coast to Rotterdam, today, is roughly approximately $14. And that's down from about $16, $18 3 month ago. The Pacific rates are at historic lows. Unfortunately, CONSOL doesn't have anything that loads in the Pacific and discharges in the Pacific. But these rates, as I said, are low. And today, those rates are trading at about $5,000 to $10,000 per day. And that's well below their costs. And then when we look at the meat of it, the rates that are the most important to us, what we commonly refer to as the front haul [ph] rates, these are vessels that load in the Atlantic and discharge in the Pacific. They are impacted by high vessel fuels, high vessel fuel bunkering. And it's up about $6, but the market is down $6, so this is flat. So this coupled with real rates, we measure it all the time. So we believe as we were in '10 and '11, that we'll be successful in our negotiations going forward and this will add to a healthy margin.