John Cheigh
Analyst · Evercore ISI
Thank you, Mike, and good morning. Today, I'd like to cover three topics: our performance scorecard, our 2026 outlook given the recent geopolitical events, and last, our long-term structural view of the economy, the market regime and some asset allocation implications for investors. Beginning with our performance scorecard. We continue to build on our record of consistent, long-term outperformance. On a 1-year basis, 86% of our AUM has outperformed its benchmark, while our 3- and 5-year outperformance rates are both above 97%. 95% of our open-end fund AUM is rated 4- or 5-star by Morningstar, which is up from 90% last quarter. In short, we continue to meet our primary objective of providing outstanding long-term performance for our investors. Turning to the investment environment. Coming into 2026, we expected both an acceleration and a rebalancing of global growth with a corresponding broadening of market leadership. While that outlook was spot on early in the year, the current Middle East conflict may have brought that market leadership shift into question. U.S. and global REITs were both up about 10% through February, well ahead of flattish equity markets. As we saw market rotation into the relative laggards of the last several years. While events in March raised some of those gains, REIT still posted positive absolute performance for the quarter with U.S. and global REITs up about 4% and 1%, respectively. Listed infrastructure performance was resilient, up 8% for the quarter. Businesses such as utilities and midstream energy continue to demonstrate their criticality in the world of short-term energy scarcity and the continued power buildout, needed to serve increasing industrialization and AI-related demand. Diversified Real assets rose 12% for the quarter, with strong gains in commodities and natural resource equities. As we saw in 2022, real assets have been a clear winner and diversifier for a 60-40 stock bond portfolio. The asset allocation case for real assets continues to be made. Preferred securities and fixed income classes broadly declined slightly in the quarter as renewed inflation concerns indicate that monetary policy could be tighter for longer. So as we update our economic and market outlook for the rest of 2026, our expectation is that the Middle East military deescalation that began several weeks ago, and will continue, including just this morning over the coming -- over the course of the coming weeks and months. We know it will have its starts and stops. But as long-term investors, our focus is on the trajectory of where we are headed. As a result, our initial 2026 view of broadening economic growth and financial markets remains intact. Now thinking beyond 2026, we believe investors must see recent developments, not as a one-off or a surprise. But instead, as another chapter in a book, which will continue to shape markets for the next 10 years or more. For some time, we have stated that the global economy is undergoing a structural transition one that looks meaningfully different than the prior 30 years. And there are four major themes that we expect will serve as important drivers of asset allocation shifts. First, deglobalization or what we would call geopolitical fracturing. For 20 years, the global economy enjoyed friendly trading relationships and uninhibited delivery of just-in-time resources. In the 2000s, this drove a buildup of global supply chains, primarily in Asia, but a [ deindustrialization ] for much of the developed world. For nearly 10 years now, we've seen repeated reminders that this system, while leading to lower consumer goods prices and higher profit margins was fragile and exposed the global economy to tail risks. In the last 6 years, we've seen four consecutive supply shocks, the pandemic, followed by the War in Ukraine, then tariffs and now the conflict in the Middle East. These are not one-off events. But again, an outcome of shifts in global power dynamics and alliances. This geopolitical fracturing will drive significant fixed asset investment boom greater than what the 2,000 saw from China, driven by reindustrialization and remilitarization. The second major theme is AI and technological disruption. Artificial intelligence is a transformational force on its own. But importantly, it is not a software but rather a hardware story. AI leadership will ultimately be about compute capacity and the marginal cost will likely be about the cost and availability of power. The third theme is inflation uncertainty. In the last decade, inflation consistently undershot expectations. In contrast, inflation in recent years has consistently surprised to the upside, confounding forecasts that expected a quick return to the old normal of low and stable prices. Even as headline inflation has moderated from recent peaks, underlying pressures remain. As you all read in our forthcoming capital markets assumptions, Cohen & Steers forecast consumer inflation to average 3% annually in the U.S. over the next 10 years. Below recent peaks, but well above the 1.6% experienced in the last cycle and significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target. While AI may produce a productivity boom, which could prove highly deflationary, the investment needed to produce that deflationary boom is highly inflationary. The job of any central banker over the next 10 years will be challenging. Our conclusion is that while inflation is likely to be higher than markets expect. The precise path and pace of inflation represents a major market uncertainty and risk factor. The final important trend is the end of low interest rates. Some of this is about inflation and some is about persistent fiscal deficits. Importantly, we also believe that the market continues to underestimate that we will live in a more capital-intensive world, we took interest rates and credit spreads wider. Hyperscalers shifting from being highly cash flow positive -- [ CASM ] of this shift. Given these four major themes in the next phase, some of last cycle's winners may remain winner, but areas of structural change tend to disrupt market leadership new faces emerge, incumbents decline and entirely different parts of the economy of these shifts are natural resources and the picks and shovels of the global economy. Notably energy, infrastructure and the plumbing that supports construction, transportation and power delivery. This represents a tremendous investment opportunity but also one that comes with challenges of higher and more volatile inflation, as I mentioned earlier. So for our clients, our advice is simple. First, diversification not just in terms of asset classes or listed versus private but instead diversification of investment exposure to different economic drivers, inflation regimes and factors. Second, hard assets, including real assets must be a meaningful allocation sourced from equity and fixed income as a diversifier and as a total return opportunity. Third, investors should use a broader toolkit with some private exposure when it provides unique exposure or an illiquidity premium. But in a highly uncertain world, where the old models may not work, the cost of illiquidity is very high and should be used thoughtfully rather than just for quarterly statement diversification. We believe the first quarter is the continuation of the market's recognition of this major turn in leadership, which will unfold with the remaining chapters of this book. And with that, let me turn it over to Joe.