Joseph Harvey
Analyst · KBW. The line is open, please proceed
Thank you, Matt and good morning. Our investment performance both absolute and relative is very strong, reflecting favorable macroeconomic conditions, ongoing returns from the investments we have made in our teams and processes, and positive results from performance improvement efforts when they are needed. In the second quarter, and for the past year, seven of our nine core strategies outperform their benchmarks. Measured by AUM, 95% of our portfolios are outperforming on a one year basis, 97% are outperforming over three years, and 98% are outperforming over five years. The recovery in our one year batting average from 71% last quarter was half due to our core preferred strategy and 40% attributable to U.S. real estate. Our three and five year batting averages have been consistent and high and 88% of our open end fund AUM are rated four or five star by Morningstar. Absolute performance for our asset classes in the second quarter was strong, but decelerated from the extraordinary pace in the first quarter. The macro shift towards a goldilocks environment that began powerfully in the first quarter continued with expectations for slowing that positive economic growth and benign inflation supporting a dovish fed. The progression in the quarter was a jump forward to anticipation of rate cuts in the U.S. and the potential for another round of quantitative easing in Europe. It could be that without inflation, the lower amplitude of the economic cycle will prevent hard turns by the Fed and enable small tweaks to extend the cycle. The specter of additional monetary stimulus by Central Banks unleased a scramble for yield globally. To illustrate, the average yield for 10 years sovereign bonds in the U.S., U.K., Japan, France and Australia is just 0.6%. Nearly 13 trillion or 12% of the global bond market has negative yields. Not surprisingly, considering the yield squeeze, preferred and infrastructure where our best performing asset classes in the quarter. Core prefers returned 4.1% lifting year-to-date returns to 11.8%. We performed in the quarter. To share an investment perspective, as credit profiles in the corporate bond market deteriorate, as measured by credit ratings and covenants, the credit profiles for preferred, which are predominantly issued by banks and insurance companies remained strong in part due to regulatory guidelines. This should distinguish preference as investors put money to work in a low yield environment. Consistent with the scarcity of yield, asset consultants are increasingly recommending prefers to their clients, which is expanding the market for what historically was a retail market. Our low duration preferred strategy returned 2.7% and we underperformed slightly versus our primary benchmark. Low duration represents one of the two core strategies that underperformed. I'd add, however, that this strategy is meeting its income and capital stability objectives in the context of low rate duration. While precisely benchmarking the unique strategies that we managed may be challenging at times, we are pleased with our low duration preferred performance. Global listed infrastructure returned 4.3% in the quarter and we are performed. For the past three quarters, infrastructure has performed well in various economic and market conditions, which reflects, in our view, the attractiveness of dividend paying equities in a low return environment, and the fact that more investors are adding infrastructure to their portfolios. On past calls, we have discussed the 150 billion of dry powder and private equity infrastructure funds. We expect some of that capital to work its way into the public markets, considering the challenges and buying private infrastructure assets. That dry powder has now grown to $200 billion, and with leverage provides buying power of $500 billion. This quarter, several public companies announced privatizations by infrastructure funds. We expect several variations on this theme, from asset level deals to privatizations, to strategic corporate investments, as well as IPOs, as the private sector, both private equity in the listed markets increasingly provide the capital necessary to fix and build our nation's and our world's infrastructure. Ministry managing 4performance was flat on an absolute basis after a strong rally in the first quarter. And as the two factors that have been driving midstream have moved in opposite directions. While oil was down slightly improvement and high yield credit helped offset oil. We underperformed in the quarter as market leadership within midstream has come from large cap high quality companies that generalists have sought in the rotation into dividend paying equities. Our portfolios are positioned in midstream securities that we believe are statistically cheap, yet are less appealing to generalists due to their smaller market caps or partnership structures. We continue to see a secular transition to better structures and better business models, which should begin to reduce the influence of oil and credit on how midstream trades. Two of our core strategies that outperformed but lag the equity and fixed income rally on an absolute basis where resource equities and multi-strategy real assets, which includes real estate, infrastructure, resource equities and commodities. The sole factor that restrain these strategies performance was commodity prices which declined 2% in the quarter attributable to trade wars and reflective of slower global growth. Resource equities returned 1% and we outperformed significantly. The multi-strategy real asset index also returned 1%. We outperformed in multi-strategy as each of the underlying portfolio sleeves outperformed. Turning to our largest asset class real estate, we are pleased with how it is performing on an absolute basis for our clients and with our relative performance. After a multi-year period of underperforming stocks and private real estate due to interest rate concerns, REITs began to outperform late last year. In the quarter, U.S. REITs returned 1.8%, lifting the year-to-date return to 19.7%. With this recent move, REITs have reestablished dominance versus private core real estate by providing a return premium with liquidity. This is contrary to the return premium found elsewhere in private equity. We're pleased with the positive diversified returns; we continue to provide our clients. Global real estate performance was flat in the quarter, primarily due to a market pullback in Europe, reflecting economic concerns, and some specific real estate issues, notably increasing Brexit angst and proposals for residential rent control in Germany. In the quarter, we outperformed in all three of our core real estate strategies, U.S., global and international. For the past year, 95% of our real estate AUM has outperformed, and 100% of our global real estate AUM has outperformed. We are observing admits the competitive pressures in our industry, whether from indexing or for active managers to provide greater access returns more consistently, that we are getting stronger as an investment organization. When it comes to real estate, we have a market position that is unparalleled, enabling us to deliver performance consistently across a wide range of strategies and at substantial levels of AUM. We have done this over multiple Portfolio Manager Regimes, and our current team is among the best and deepest. Our outperformance spans the broadest range of strategies offered from global or regional or by portfolio concentration level, or by income or risk profile. And importantly, we have executed throughout periods of AUM growth in varying levels of market share. Specifically, today, our AUM is 2.7% of the market cap of U.S. REITs. While over the long term, our market share is averaged 3.5%. While some of the industry question or size, the data show there is zero correlation between our share of the market and our alpha in our core REIT strategy. These positions as well as pension and sovereign wealth funds, which has historically have invested exclusively in private real estate are now beginning to allocate to listed real estate to enhance their portfolios. In closing, we continue to invest in our investment department. We are adding quantitative capabilities to supplement our fundamental processes, developing our next generation portfolio managers and adding to teams selectively to facilitate the progression of our succession plans. We continue to allocate time and capital resources to develop new investment concepts and methods to deliver them. For example, in real estate, this includes an opportunistic approach that targets mid-teen returns, a risk manager strategy, and a completion portfolio for core real estate investors. Our philosophy of continuous improvement and encouraging new ideas benefits our core strategies as alpha sources can be mined in our core portfolios, in addition to being packaged, more discreetly, and highly differentiated strategies. It also helps us retain talent, as our Analyst and Associates work on developing these strategies and our next generation Portfolio Managers have greater career path opportunities. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Bob Steers.