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Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 18, 2008

$67.72

-1.78%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to Cohen & Steers Fourth Quarter and 2007 Financial Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Salvatore Rappa, Senior Vice President and Associate General Counsel.

Salvatore Rappa

Management

Thank you. Welcome to the Cohen & Steers fourth quarter and 2007 earnings conference call. Joining me is our Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer Marty Cohen; our President, Joe Harvey; and our Chief Financial Officer, Matt Stadler. Before I turn the call over to Marty, I’d like to make the following remarks. Yesterday we issued a press release announcing our fourth quarter and 2007 quarter results. The press release, which is available on our website at cohenandsteers.com, contains information that we believe is useful in helping you evaluate our performance during the quarter and year-to-date. I want to point out that during the course of this conference call, we may make a number of forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and there are important factors that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. We believe that some of these factors are described in the risk factors section of our 2006 Form 10-K, which is also available on our website. I want to remind you that the company assumes no duty to update any forward-looking statements. Also, the presentation we make today will contain pro forma or non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are meaningful in evaluating the company’s performance. For detailed disclosures on pro forma metrics and their GAAP reconciliations, you should refer to the financial data contained within the press release we issued yesterday. Finally, this presentation may contain information with respect to investment performance of certain of our funds. I want to remind you that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. This communication shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy these securities. For more complete information about the funds we will discuss today, including charges, expenses, and risks, please call 800-330-7348 for a prospectus and see the press release we issued yesterday. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Marty.

Martin Cohen

Management

Thank you, Sal, and good morning. Let me mention at the outset that Bob Steers is not with us this morning. He’s actually visiting clients in Australia. So rather than have him be on the phone in the middle of the night, Joe and Matt and I and the others will be handling the call today. This morning, we’d like to skip the listing of our accomplishments for the past quarter and year and focus instead on the state of our industry and our company. Let me just review a few numbers at the outset. First, we reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $0.44 versus $0.40 a year ago, a 10% increase. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $66.9 million compared with $57.6 million a year ago, a 16% increase. We ended the year with $29.8 billion in assets under management, which was virtually the same as a year ago. And here’s where it gets interesting, because some of the underlying trends really were quite unusual. In 2007, we enjoyed gross inflows at a record level of $12.3 billion. To put that in context, that’s about 40% of our beginning assets. So we had a great gross inflow year. We had a record net inflows of $5.1 billion, which was a very good organic growth rate. But we suffered $5.5 billion in depreciation, which essentially erased all of our net inflows. This was the result of a bear market in REITs which began early in the year. Just for review, REITs have been on a seven year run of outstanding performance, culminating in about a 50% return from the beginning of 2006 to February of 2007. A lot of that run-up was fueled by takeovers in the industry, in the new asset REITs, where there was $167 billion worth…

Matthew S. Stadler

Management

Thanks, Marty. Good morning, everyone. Yesterday, we reported earnings of $0.44 per share compared with $0.40 per share in the prior year and $0.37 per share sequentially. The sequential quarter included an approximate $0.09 per share after-tax expense associated with a structuring fee paid in connection with the offering of a closed-end mutual fund. We reported revenue for the quarter of $66.9 million compared with $57.6 million in the prior year and $69.5 million sequentially. Net income for the quarter was $18.7 million compared with $16.6 million in the prior year and $15.9 million sequentially. The third quarter of 2007 included the structuring fee. For the year, we reported net income of $75.5 million or $1.77 per share, compared with net income of $3.2 million or $0.08 per share in 2006. Net income for 2007 included the structuring fee of approximately $0.09 per share. Net income for 2006 included $1.25 per share after-tax expense associated with the prepayment of certain of our closed-end fund trailers and a $0.02 per share after-tax gain from the sale of property and equipment. After adjusting for these items, 2007 EPS totaled $1.85 a share, and 2006 EPS totaled $1.31 a share. As a result of extremely challenging market conditions, our assets under management decreased to $29.8 billion. Market depreciation, net outflows in open-end funds and institutional separate accounts, and capital gain distributions from certain of our open-end and closed-end mutual funds, all contributed to the decline. For the year, we recorded record gross and net inflows and had an overall organic growth rate of 18%. So clearly, it was a year impacted by two distinctly different market environments. We continue to broaden our product offerings with U.S. REIT common stocks now comprising only 43% of total assets, down from 59% last year. International securities…

Martin Cohen

Management

Thanks, Matt. Maybe we’ll just go right to the questions.

Operator

Operator

The first question comes from Douglas Sipkin - Wachovia.

Douglas Sipkin - Wachovia

Analyst

Just two questions, one and I apologize if you gave it already. I know you provided the large cap value flows for the year. Did you provide the large cap value assets?

Martin Cohen

Management

We did not mention that, but I think we can tell you that.

Douglas Sipkin - Wachovia

Analyst

And then secondly on top of that, do you know more specifically when Morningstar is going to officially rate the fund?

Martin Cohen

Management

We don’t know when they will. We know that it requires a three-year track record in house to consider that. I think that’s August 1.

Matthew S. Stadler

Management

August of ‘08.

Douglas Sipkin - Wachovia

Analyst

That’s helpful. And then on the separate account business, I know that’s a bit of counter cyclical business, when REITs are out of favor typically that sees inflows. So, I was a little surprised it wasn’t a little bit better this quarter. I am just wondering, is there anything specific to that? Or it’s just one-offs here or there?

Matthew S. Stadler

Management

I don’t think there is a major trend, yet. I will say that we have – and this is something we haven’t seen for some time – seen some existing clients, based on the decline in REIT prices and their asset allocation strategies, begin to increase their allocations. We’ve seen that from several European clients. We’ve seen it from one U.S. client and then several global clients.

Martin Cohen

Management

The answer to the first question is $1.1 billion in large cap value.

Douglas Sipkin - Wachovia

Analyst

Is that a combination of fund and separate account?

Martin Cohen

Management

Yes. The importance of that $1.1 billion is, I’d like to reiterate, we’ve mentioned this in the past, having critical mass now enables us to compete more effectively for large mandates. So we’ve reached a turning point here, which we are very, very, very optimistic about.

Douglas Sipkin - Wachovia

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just an update. I know you don’t expect much out of the closed-end fund market in the near-term, but I get the sense that some of the discounts are starting to improve a little bit. Any color on that market? Are we still a long ways off before we could think about that? And I am just saying that given the recent acceleration in interest rate policy.

Martin Cohen

Management

A lot of the discounts have narrowed. And my understanding is that the calendar is extremely light, because the market’s just not ready for a new closed-end fund offerings. Now, if we continue on a positive trend, and there are income strategies, of which we have a couple in the pipeline, that are in demand, then certainly maybe by sometime in the second quarter we could start seeing some activity there. But right now, we’re just assuming that the window is closed until then.

Matthew S. Stadler

Management

If I might add, just an interesting trend in the closed-end fund market is for the leveraged funds, the cost of leverage is coming down considerably. And that is starting to create more opportunities to generate positive spreads to enhance the income that a closed-end fund can deliver. But as, Marty said, we’re assuming that there will be no activity there for some time.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Carrier - UBS.

Mike Carrier - UBS

Analyst

Actually, a two-part question for both Marty and Matt. The REITs have corrected, and Marty, you gave the overview of where your outlook is. And obviously, the rates are helping boost this sector. But given the weaker economic backdrop, is that still an ongoing concern? Not for just the sector, but just maybe for the near term in terms of your guidance build-out? Then for Matt, in that environment, on the expense side, what portions or what areas can you control in the near term, yet not take away from the long-term build-out of the franchise?

Martin Cohen

Management

Mike, our single biggest concern as always is the state of the economy. Because you can’t have strong real estate markets if there’s a weak economy. Offsetting that are two things. One is that the commercial real estate market, particularly the REITs that we invest in – and that’s globally – are extremely well capitalized, most with long-term leases. So even if there was a slowdown and even a minor recession – and we found this also in the 2001 to 2003 period, earnings continued to grow. So we’re not as concerned. But clearly there could be a deceleration of growth in the offing. But the second thing and more importantly is that REITs were down close to 40% from top to bottom. There has never been a decline like that. Clearly, the market was discounting, I think, a combination of the seizing up of the financial markets and the debt market, but also taking into account the possible economic slowdown. And we had valuations relative to net asset value, relative to the cash flows that are at pretty depressed levels. Typically REITs and financials are early cycle leaders. And this is our experience over many cycles, where, it’s amazing, when the economy is going into a recession and what happens, financials and REITs rally. And there is a reason for that. We go down first, we tend to come out first. And I can’t tell you that that’s going to happen, but if history repeats itself, there’s a strong possibility that that’s what we’ll see. And that’s what we might be seeing developing over the past few weeks.

Matthew S. Stadler

Management

I think with respect to your expense questions there’s really two line items, G&A and headcount, employee compensation. G&A, there’s some items on the line item that are not controllable. But clearly, the controllable expenses are items that we’re looking at continuously and looking to make sure that they come in relative to the revenue generation. On the headcount front, I mentioned that there’s a couple of searches going on. And Marty had mentioned that although our infrastructure is pretty much in place and it’s scalable – we had a 25% increase in headcount year-over-year – we don’t expect that’s going to be the case in 2008. And if so the hires that we do in 2008 will be more to complement or provide for us to continue to expand our platform. But it’s not going to be to bolster admin and support areas and other areas where we already feel that we’re adequately staffed and scalable in those areas. So that’s where we’re looking to control our expenses.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Cynthia Mayer - Merrill Lynch.

Cynthia Mayer - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Maybe you went over this and I missed it. But the outflows in separate accounts, would you just attribute that to – I don’t know what. You can’t attribute it to rebalancing when REITs are down so much. Why wouldn’t you see rebalancing in the other direction?

Matthew S. Stadler

Management

Rebound meaning that if there’s a depreciation and people are going to look to get back up to their allocation level. We would expect that as the year unfolds we’ll have more inflows. But what we experienced in the fourth quarter, at least on the separate accounts side, we said that there were some outflows in advance of capital gains for one of our sub-advised accounts. And then, there was just outflows basically in U.S. domestic but we didn’t really see any outflows in our international and global. In fact, if you look at the institutional business in each quarter of ‘07, we had net inflows in our global and international portfolios. So I think that’s actually an opportunity for ‘08, that if the markets have in fact bottomed and certain valuations are there, we would expect to see the U.S. market come back and inflows as the institutions top off and get back to their allocation percentages.

Martin Cohen

Management

Cynthia, some of the outflows, I think much of that is we include subadvisory relationships in our institutional (projector?), and in those subadvisory relationships, whether it’s capital gains or just investor defection, we have had some outflows there. But as far as the separate accounts that are pension funds, endowment funds, and the like, they were in I think net inflow all year long.

Matthew S. Stadler

Management

The whole segment.

Martin Cohen

Management

So despite that retail feel within a couple of those accounts, we still had net inflows in institutional in every quarter.

Cynthia Mayer - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And I remember in past years you’ve said that you think there has been a secular shift toward just including REITs more freely as part of an asset allocation. Does the sell-off change that for institutions?

Joseph Harvey

Analyst

Not at all, and I think that’s a pretty remarkable development for the REIT market generally; 10 years ago, we would be answering questions about the validity of REITs as a real estate asset class allocation. And as Marty mentioned earlier, we continue to see a lot of interest, particularly in global and international strategies. And we’re just not hearing those types of questions; that is, are REITs real estate? In fact, we’ve also seen a similar development in terms of the flow activity with the type of market decline that we’ve had, 10 years ago we would have had much larger outflows. So I think it really is a testament to the development of the asset class. So today the conversations with institutions are revolving around, is the decline over? What’s going on fundamentally? And is now a good time to initiate an allocation?

Cynthia Mayer - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Great. And one other question is, in the first few weeks of this year, how close have the market movements of international and U.S. REITs been? How much of a diversifier they have been?

Joseph Harvey

Analyst

They are just like last year. They have been very different. And this is through last night, but the U.S. was up about 0.2%, clearly a lot of volatility there. Europe overall was down about 4% and Asia was down about 14%. Last year, Europe and U.S. looked a lot alike and had a much higher correlation. And Asia was the star, it was up 15%. So we are starting to see a rotation away from Asia somewhat, as its economy begins to slow in accordance with the global slowdown. And yet, because of the value in U.S. and Europe and with the monetary stimulus, we’re beginning to see rotation back into those markets.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Marc Irizarry - Goldman Sachs.

Marc Irizarry - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

The first question is just in terms of your open-end mutual funds. I think over half of your subscriptions to the open-end mutual funds came at the top of the cycle if you will for REITs, or before the bear market set it. How do you allay concerns? Or would you expect with the continued headwind before we see a deceleration in the outflows in the open-end side of things?

Martin Cohen

Management

I think we’ve already seen a deceleration. And we were debating whether to get into more detail with respect to January and December and we’ve chosen not to because there is a lot of noise. The capital gain distribution, the year-end tax loss selling, and then we had other investors that sold in December and are buying back in January. So there is a lot of noise there. But in general as we look month-to-month, we’ve seen a deceleration in the outflows. Now it’s not a deceleration from 60 miles per hour to 10, but it’s certainly a deceleration. That would stabilize I would imagine, and we don’t know, but to the extent that they do stabilize, we should probably see an abatement of outflows. And then again if history repeats itself, as they stabilize and maybe start performing a little better relative to the other assets, you start seeing inflows again. Whether that’s two months or six months, I don’t know, but that’s the typical pattern.

Marc Irizarry - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

And what if anything can be done in terms of the channel and helping hold hands, if you will, on the open-end mutual fund side of the equation? What efforts, if any, are underway on your end to do that?

Martin Cohen

Management

We’re doing a conference call today at 4 o’clock for financial advisers, and as an update. And I think the last one we had was with 500 people who were on the call. We expect even more today given the state of the markets. We do that regularly. Call here if you want to listen in. Scott Crowe, our global strategist and I will be conducting that call. Our wholesalers and our internals, who total about 25 individuals today, are on the phone constantly with the retail channel. We have a team of client service people in the RIA channel. They are out every day. And we have, on the institutional side, probably at a rate even higher than our growth in assets has been our client service team that are also in touch with our existing clients every day. They have been extremely effective with respect to transitioning a lot of our existing clients from U.S.-only to global. I think that’s another reason why the U.S.-only accounts have declined as a percentage of our assets. And a lot of that’s been very effective client service. And then finally, we have a very strong consultant relation effort. As you know, in the institutional world, it’s very consultant-driven, and we are with them every day as well. So, I don’t think there’s anything more we can do. We all know that in times of headwinds, that’s the most important job we have is to maintain our focus and our client service, and that’s exactly what we’ve been doing for most of the past year.

Marc Irizarry - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Understood. And then just in terms of the scope of the business, outside of REITs and global REITs, do you think at all about any strategic initiatives, be it acquisition or some more aggressive rollout of non-REIT product to accelerate your movement away from or dependence on REITs?

Martin Cohen

Management

Our latest strategic initiative has been to add hedging capabilities, and we’ve got a very strong team there. We mentioned in the past we are in the process of developing a long/short capability, which is very much desired in the institutional world. And with respect to other non-REIT initiatives, we don’t know what this year is going to bring. And we love having the strong balance sheet. We are in touch with all the investment bankers and all the people who traffic in opportunities. We will look at anything that fits within the core of our capabilities and our assets, our focus on that income orientation in the equity world.

Joseph Harvey

Analyst

In terms of our existing non-REIT capabilities, we’re very excited for our large cap value team, with its track record of performance, which is just spectacular and with the critical mass and assets that we now have, we think some of our best opportunities are already here and we can generate growth internally.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to management for any closing remarks.

Martin Cohen

Management

Thank you all for listening and we look forward to our next call, and we will see you then.