Mark Johnson
Analyst · Bob Wetenhall with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question
Great question. Thanks Bob. This question is tied up in a couple of bigger picture items, the first one being the seasonal pattern of our company. Historically, the fourth and third quarter are the strongest two quarters of our fiscal year. It goes through the construction cycle. And typically, the fourth quarter is the strongest, the third quarter is the second strongest, and then you have the weaker first half. Last year was a pretty significant anomaly to that and it was driven in large part by some rapid increases in steel prices that pulled some work forward into the second quarter -- I'm sorry, into the third quarter. And so you actually had a situation, which is very rare, where the third quarter last year was stronger than the fourth quarter and it was stronger from a volume perspective as well as from a margin perspective. And we end up talking about steel prices quite a bit, but it's always in a short-term conversation where we're talking about a quarter or an individual segment. When we're talking about steel prices, we're hardly ever talking about an annual result or a long-term view of our performance and that's certainly the case here. In the prior year, that rapid increasing steel price caused an anomaly in the third quarter margins to be high and the fourth quarter margins to be lower. And when you put the two together, you get a more normalized view. Now, when we flash-forward to this year, we're looking at a much more normalized situation where steel prices, while they have risen and are at a higher level than they were last year, they're not showing that same level of increasing pattern and that same steep decline, so it's not causing an anomaly in the seasonal pattern and we're reverting back to the more normal pattern. So, underneath all of that is volume and the impact of steel on short-term margins. So, this year, and our third quarter, we will have progressively better margins than the second quarter. In fact, if you take the unusually high margins in last year's third quarter off the table for just a moment, you would see that our third quarter margins we're guiding to at the midpoint of our range for the third quarter this year are the highest margins since 2009 when the downturn began. So, that is driven by all the hard work of the men and women of NCI to focus on the manufacturing and process improvements within our manufacturing group and then also in the supply chain area. Similarly, when we get to the fourth quarter, we expect a much more normalized margin that won't have that impact of the higher steel costs as a headwind that we still expect to see in the third quarter and so the margins will progressively be better in the fourth quarter and will be more illustrative of the margins we now can obtain given our improvement in our cost structure.