Earnings Labs

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, May 9, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Canadian Natural Resources Q1 2014 Earnings Conference Call. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, Friday May 09, 2014 at 09:00 AM Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today’s call, Mr. Doug Proll, Executive Vice President of Canadian Natural Resources. Please go ahead, Mr. Proll.

Douglas Proll

Management

Thank you, operator and good morning. Thank you for joining our first quarter 2014 conference call. Today we will discuss our financial and operating results for the quarter, provide an update on certain projects including Kirby South, Horizon Phase 2/3, Primrose, and the completion of asset acquisitions undertaken in the first quarter. With me this morning are Steve Laut, our President; and Corey Bieber, our Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance. Before we begin, I would remind you – would refer to the comments regarding forward-looking information contained in our press releases, and also note that dollar amounts are in Canadian dollars and production reserves are expressed as before royalties, unless otherwise stated. I would like to make a few brief comments before turning the call over to Steve and Corey. Cash flow from operations amounted to $2.15 billion for the quarter, or $1.97 per share. This was an increase of 37% over the first quarter of 2013 and a 20% increase over the fourth quarter of 2013. Net earnings and adjusted net earnings from operations for the first quarter were also very strong at $0.57 and $0.85 per share respectively, up significantly over the first and fourth quarters of 2013, demonstrating the cash flow and profitable growth potential over strong and diversified asset base. The quarterly cash flow was driven by new levels of production from each of primary heavy Pelican Lake crude and North American NGLs and light crude, and the continued safe reliable of SCO at Horizon. We also realized significantly higher net backs for crude oil and natural gas driven by a higher WTI and dated benchmarking prices and lower heavy oil differentials for Western Canadian Select and higher natural gas pricing in the quarter. Our product mix continues to diversify where light oil and natural gas liquids and SCO represented 32% of BOE production. The components of our Western Canadian Select’s product stream including primary heavy Pelican Lake and bitumen crude was 39% and natural gas was 29%. We continue to execute on our capital allocation formula. Capital allocation to maximize the value of our diverse asset base for profitable growth, returns to shareholders to sustainable dividends and share purchases, nimbly executed acquisitions in our core areas, and the maintenance of balance sheet strength. These elements were all present in the first quarter of 2014. I will now turn you over to Steve for the synopsis of the quarter and the outlook for 2014.

Steve Laut

President

Good morning everyone and thanks, Doug. The first quarter was a strong quarter for Canadian Natural as we continue to build a premium value defined growth independent. We’re one of the few companies in our peer group that has diversified and well balanced assets that deliver free cash flow on a sustainable basis. Our direct results of Canadian Natural is proven and effective strategy that optimize capital allocation to maximize value, surely has effective balance not only in our assets but in our capital allocation between asset growth near, mid and long term, return to shareholders and balance sheet strength. This gives Canadian Natural a clear advantage compared to our peer group. Canadian Natural advantage starts with our strong, free cash flow generating conventional assets. Canadian Natural’s conventional assets are the backbone and the underlying driver of our transition to our longer life, low-decline asset mix that providing the funding for the transition. Our conventional assets generating free cash flow and at the same time, we’re able to grow potential volumes in the 2% to 4% range. The transition to long life low-decline assets in Horizon, our thermal in-situ assets and our Pelican Lake is well underway providing significant and sustainable cash flow. As production ramps up from these assets, Canadian Natural’s free cash flow grows rapidly and is much more sustainable, as reserve replacement costs for these assets is very low. Both thermal and Pelican are today generating significant and sustainable free cash flow. As our free cash flow ramps up, Canadian Natural is eventually balancing the allocation of free cash flow to our priorities. Our first priority is to resource development and in 2014 we expect to allocate roughly $400 million to Horizon, to capture additional cost certainty. In addition, we’ll allocate another 425 million to the E&P…

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Steve and good morning to everyone. As Steve noted, our quarterly cash flow was about $364 million higher than the previous quarter. This reflected sequential production growth, narrower heavy oil differentials, stronger natural gas pricing and generally higher realizations due to the weaker Canadian dollar. Further, as we sold all the crudes that we have produced in offshore Africa, reported cash flow would have been approximately $50 million higher. However, due to the nature of FPSO operations and the timing of entitlement liftings, no crude oil sales incurred during the first quarter. This value will be captured in second quarter of 2014. This strong first quarter cash flow facilitated both the robust capital program and the additional return of cash to shareholders. As you’re likely aware, our April 1, 2014 dividend payment was $0.225 per share this was $0.10 or 80% greater than the $0.0125 paid on April 1, 2013. In addition, year to date we have purchased over 2.1 million common shares at an average price of $37.86 per share. Our balance sheet remains strong with quarterly debt to EBITDA of 1.1 times and debt to book capitalization exiting at 28%. Liquidity exited the quarter at about $4.6 billion, having been bolstered by a dual tranche US$1 billion note issuance and US$1 billion bilateral loan agreement with a major Canadian bank. Of course, as you are aware on April 1st, we closed a major conventional property acquisition for approximately $3.1 billion. This has temporarily increased our debt to book capitalization to 34% still well within our targeted ranges. Based upon revised production and capital guidance as well as current strip rating, I would anticipate this ratio will reduce back down to around 30% by year-end. And it is worth noting that this 30% forecast ratio did not…

Douglas Proll

Management

Thank you, Steve and Corey. Operator, I would like to open the call for some questions please.

Operator

Operator

All right. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from David McColl from Morningstar. Your line is open. David McColl – Morningstar Inc.: Hey good morning everyone. Solid quarter and thanks for taking my questions. You mentioned the favorable construction environment right now for Horizon. I wonder if you’re concerned at all the development of Redwater and granted that’s in the Edmonton area. But if you are concerned that the development of that could cause some price inflation for the ongoing work at Horizon, especially as some of your peers ramp up development of their oil wells and mining projects?

Steve Laut

President

Thanks David. That’s a very good question and we keep very close tab as you’d expect, on the construction market, also the procurement and engineering side of the business of what’s going on. I think we are in a like we say favorable market condition. We’re ahead of the pack here. We’re doing mechanical and electrical work here with most of that ahead of us. So the civil and the structural work is largely done. So we are in front of the pack and so we think that any activity that’s going to be coming from Redwater, Redwater is quite a bit behind us and some quarters as well now bunch of activity. So we think we have a window here at least a year if were things heat up and we’re using different services or different part of the construction market and at least those two players will be in the near term. David McColl – Morningstar Inc.: Okay. Great. Thanks that helps.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Amir Arif with Stifel. Your line is open. Amir Arif – Stifel Nicolaus: Hi. Good morning guys. Just a few quick questions first, just on the improvement of your pricing market I noticed that you did added another 10,000 barrels of basis such as 4Q. But can you just provide some color or commentary about your ability to lock in more of your heavy oil growth volumes that are coming online in terms of the [inaudible]?

Steve Laut

President

Thanks, Amir. As you know that market is pretty liquid, so we sort of step into it very slowly. So I think it’s difficult to really see us at a lot of volumes to our hedging on the differential, but if the opportunities arise and the pricing is right we will catch some more but yet again it’s a very liquid market so it’s difficult to do anything in any kind of size. Amir Arif – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. And on Horizon, just given your current reliability on the 12,000 barrels a day being added in September unless you pull your guidance and change it, is there any kind of turnaround coming in the second half or is it just a conservative guidance number?

Steve Laut

President

No I think that guidance was set all along with the September shutdown, and the production we expected here this year. So where we end up in that guidance were yet to be seen but right now we feel pretty confident as you see reliability is strong at Horizon. The execution of the high end the – is pretty much set to go and we’re looking forward to an effective really well down tie end. At this point we don’t need to raise the guidance I think we’ll be within the guidance it might creep up, but we’re within guidance right now. Amir Arif – Stifel Nicolaus: But Steve, so there is no turnaround or anything else coming for the second half?

Steve Laut

President

What’s happening is corporate expansion work done we’re trying to take advantage when we shutdown tie-in to do some turnaround type works like check pressure vessels and change PSVs and things like that. Amir Arif – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. Then last quick question on South Africa is that I missed your comment, can you just what’s the estimated cost of the wells timing and results on your prequel estimate – resource estimate?

Steve Laut

President

So we think there is five structures on those block well there are five structures. They rise in size up to 1 billion barrel in structure size. The first well we drilled here in Q3 so the rig is in on its way to keep down right now and it will go through some modifications. And once that’s complete we’ll commence drilling. The original cost was expected to be about 150 million and that’s been revised up to 210 million. And most of that is just allowanced and continue to see waiting on weather. So just to give us more cushion on the weather and with that increased cost assessment, if it comes in about on a capital contribution Canadian Natural has to make this well is $30 million. Amir Arif – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. And the first well is that targeting the 1 billion barrel the larger prospect?

Steve Laut

President

Yes, it’s going for the big one first. Amir Arif – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Benny Wong from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Benny Wong – Morgan Stanley: Thanks. I think you mentioned earlier that you guys might hit the bottom half of your guidance I’m sorry if I missed it. But can you provide a little bit color around that?

Steve Laut

President

What I said Benny was I’m talking strictly about the thermal production. So overall we’re looking good but on thermal itself, we may come closer to bottom end of the guidance and that’s really driven by the regulatory timing when we get ready for approvals to go back into Primrose. So that’s a little bit up in the air. So we’re seeing based on where we are now, we think I’d say it’s the better chance that we’ll be below the midpoint rather than be above the midpoint for thermal productions only. Benny Wong – Morgan Stanley: Got it. Thanks for clarifying. And can you just tell me how you think about your buyback? Are you guys thinking on opportunistic approach or do you guys have a target and place in mind?

Steve Laut

President

I’ll let Corey answer that question.

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I think it’s a combination of both obviously. What we have ongoing pace that we’ve been pretty regular in the marketplace on but you will have noticed that we’re probably more aggressive when the price is lower when is higher. That being said, we’re still active in the market place. Benny Wong – Morgan Stanley: Great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Greg Pardy of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: Thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of quick ones for me. The Horizon turnaround in 2015 Steve would that be three weeks in September or is it going to be more extensive?

Steve Laut

President

The turnaround in 2015 is scheduled right now for May 2015 and it will be in that 25 day range. Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks for that. The increase in that gas drilling is that mainly related to Devon and then you talked about optimizing operating costs? Or is there any price signal here that’s causing you to feel better about joint gas wells than you did before?

Steve Laut

President

I think Greg as you notice we are allocating lot more capital to the assets we purchased which are mostly gas and some as well. But a lot of that capital really only 70 million of it I would say volume adding capital and riding about 5,000 or 5,200 BUEs. Most of it is for the between that modules for 70 million plus we’re doing a lot of let’s say consolidation, regulatory and integrity work on the assets we brought so what we’re going to get here mostly for this is operating cost savings going forward that’s the plan mostly here in 2014 for the assets we acquired. Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. And what is your sense now? I mean I know you alluded to the expectations we’re going to have higher gas prices going through the year but are gas prices and eco prices all of them now that whether those projects begin to continue with primary heavy or how you’re thinking about that?

Steve Laut

President

Right now, obviously our liquids rich developments that mark in the accept us in other areas in some of our deep basin drilling and some of the deep basin drilling we got from the acquisitions would compete with heavy oil. I wouldn’t say competes with primary heavy oil but it competes with some of our light oil projects but it’s a tough competition. So we continue to reevaluate and high grade all our capital allocation. But the amount of drilling that’s actually happening increased drilling with these acquisitions is not that much I think we’re going from 61 to 66 wells in 2014. So it’s not a big drilling it’s mostly consolidation of cost savings and optimization. Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: And just last question for me, how much impact was there on your Canadian OpEx just altogether most in the oil equip side just related to the gas prices? Is that something like $0.25 or $0.50 a barrel?

Steve Laut

President

I would say it’s more like that $0.45 BUE just for natural gas and these obviously at Horizon had a big impact. Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your next question comes from Mike Dunn with FirstEnergy. Your line is open. Michael Dunn – FirstEnergy Capital Corp: Good morning everyone. Just wondering if you could spell us how these royalty lands combined your legacy lands and Devon can you just spell it for us what the production growth has been over the last couple of years. And I have a follow up question.

Steve Laut

President

I’m going to give you a range Mike because obviously we’re not totally on top of all the we’ve just got here trying to combine that Devon royalty asset. But I would think what we’re seeing on our commercial raise is probably in that 5% to 10% range and I would say this on the Devon assets particularly on the Kindersley area we’ve seen much more growth in that and fairly significant growth. So I think that’s one opportunity with the land base we have to see that royalty growth continuing in the future. So I hesitate to say what the growth on the Devon legacy assets are royalty assets are because it’s really unfolding quickly and there’s been a lot of exciting well development in that area. Michael Dunn – FirstEnergy Capital Corp: That’s helpful. Thanks. And just a separate question on Pelican Lake, sounds like you’ve increased the budget there a little bit this year. If we go back few months ago your original budget you were thinking a bit of timeout this year to sort of watch and observe. Has the performance so far I guess the last few months made you feel like may be you’re ready to reaccelerate the development there, a little bit earlier or do you think you’re course of 2014?

Steve Laut

President

I think Mike, we’re feeling pretty good about Pelican Lake obviously. We’re hitting record production wells there and we’re exceeding our expectations but I think what we’ll do is we’ll continue to watch for 2013. So it’s all real good news so as we are going through the capital allocation cycle here in the fall it will probably mean it will continue to look at how much capital comes to Pelican and these positive results helps allocating more capital to Pelican. We’re not going to commit to that until yet until we get past the summer. Michael Dunn – FirstEnergy Capital Corp: Okay. Thanks, Steve. That’s all for me.

Operator

Operator

And final question will come from Tai Lee with [inaudible]. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks. I know you tended aside with your trying to do a royalty assets, but I’m just wondering some part in your internal evaluation of those assets are going to psych your decisions. Because I’m thinking if you’re trying to maximize shareholder value you might want to IPO it as you think you are overvalued by the market or may be spin it out fair valued or undervalued?

Steve Laut

President

Thanks for the question. And I think you got it exactly right we are going to look at all options and we’re going to choose the option that we feel will maximize value for shareholders. So we’ll look at all possible options.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

I have no further questions. Thank you. I will turn the call back over to speakers for closing remarks.

Douglas Proll

Management

Thank you, operator, and thank you ladies and gentlemen for attending our conference call. As you’ve seen today, Canadian Natural has a strong and diverse asset base across the balance of production and is growing well developed plan for the systematic development of this asset base. We concentrate on safe, efficient and reliable operations and a strong financial position supported by readily available liquid resource. We are focused on profitable growth through the development of our balanced asset base and returns to shareholders in the near, mid and long term. If you have any further questions, please give us a call. Thank you again and we look forward to our second quarter conference call in August.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.