Bill Burns
Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead
Okay, so, thank you, Frank. And good morning, everyone. First, I'd like to echo Frank's remarks, and I hope that you and all your families are well. And I extend thanks to the ConnectOne team for all their extraordinary efforts as we all seek to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic. So, anyway, there's a lot to cover here, so let me get right into it. The first quarter on an operating basis was quite strong for us and that was across the board. It was strong in terms of net revenue, margin, and growth. On a pre-tax pre-provision basis, and in that number, I'm also adding back merger charges, our pre-tax net revenue increased to $32.6 million, which is up $4.2 million sequentially, and that's why. Now part of that was simply the merger with BKJ, but Bank of New Jersey's quarterly run rate was slightly below $2 million. So, even excluding the effect of the merger, the quarter reflected a nice sequential increase in operating net revenue. Net interest income was solid, reflecting growth and stronger margin that included higher purchase accounting. And in a couple of minutes, I'll get more into what's going on with the NIM. Turning to noninterest income. It, too, was up as we continue to successfully build noninterest income revenue streams. We're having more success selling commercial loans, and I expect that to be a consistent source of revenue for us in the future. I don't want to project exact amounts right now for the rest of this year given the pandemic crisis. Second, we increased our BOLI income and entered into some new contracts in the first quarter before rates plunged, so we got good deals there. And this is another synergy from the Bank of New Jersey merger, which didn't have any BOLI. Third is BoeFly, which even before the PPP, was projected to have increasing fee revenue. And the current run rate there is about $1 million per year. The PPP program has put BoeFly on the map like never before, so we are very optimistic here. Now to the expense side. Our core expense growth rate will likely be lower than originally anticipated due to a more likely than not slower growth scenario. One caveat to that are the expenses to be incurred in monitoring and closing out PPP, but those expenses come off the increased revenue from the program. And then just an update on how the merger cost saves are impacting the expense line. The first quarter reflects about $1 million in cost saves. Next quarter, I expect to add an additional $1 million, bringing the total run rate to $2 million. And then by the third quarter, we'll hit the full run rate of 70% savings or $3.3 million savings per quarter. So that 70% seems high, maybe it's even a record in the banking industry, but it is accurate. Keep in mind, we are closing virtually all the Bank of New Jersey branches, maybe one will be kept open. So hopefully, that's enough for you for your models. On the efficiency ratio for the first quarter, we are pleased with the 42.7%. It's usually higher in the first quarter, and it was flat versus the 2019 first quarter. Remains among the best in the industry. And with the Bank of New Jersey cost saves that are coming, I'm expecting that to improve as we get through 2020. I want to talk now about the balance sheet, what's happening, where we're going. So first, with regard to loan growth, you know, point-to-point annualized after adjusting for the acquisition was in the high single digits sequentially. And the same for deposit average growth. When you take away the benefit of the acquisition, we were still in the high single digits. Looking to the second quarter and beyond, I'll try to give you these guidelines. So, we're going to see an increase in demand deposits due to the PPP. But to some extent, that'll be temporary. However, we are confident that we will gain more clients -- more core clients in business as a result of that program. I can assure you that virtually every client who funded through the program was very pleased with how we process them and assisted them with their applications. As always, in the quarters ahead, we will remain highly focused on driving both DDA, the core relationship deposit growth. However, the wholesale markets remain very liquid now and very, very cheap. So we will be -- we always monitor the trade-off between core economics versus potentially higher cost deposit growth, for example, competing on CDs which are always highly competitive. Next is loan growth and spreads. Certainly, our expectation is for lower loan growth outside PPP. But as of now, we're just going to refrain from giving any loan growth guidance. But to the extent we are originating new low-risk loans, our expectation is for wider spreads. Even on the multifamily segment, those spreads right now are in excess to 250 basis points, which leads me to a little bit further discussion of the margin. So first, on a GAAP basis, our margin expanded five basis points sequentially, and part of that was due to the additional purchase accounting accretion coming from the acquisition. And those amounts will be tapering off by about $600,000 next quarter, and by a total of $1 million by the end of 2020. So, on a GAAP basis, we're still going to have purchase accounting. It will just be a little bit less. But now let's look at the core margin, which appeared to contract by six basis points but I don't think that tells you the story, which is a positive one. First off, four of those six basis points were due solely to actual liquidity on the balance sheet, something we did intentionally in conjunction with the crisis. Further, that remaining two basis points of contraction came from the Bank of New Jersey balance sheet, which had a margin of only 2.7%. So, over the course of the quarter, through securities portfolio restructuring and deposit repricing, we did that through the quarter. We've eliminated that negative drag. And then more recently, we have benefited from the Fed 100-basis point move. All our shorter-term wholesale funding improved by close to the full 100 basis points. We also had opportunities we took advantage of to fund longer duration at rates below 1%, over $100 million of that. We lowered deposit costs significantly, and there could be more to go even. And there'll be CDs repricing over the next few quarters. And on the lending side, we were protected significantly by the floors on the floating rate loans. And although there have been many requests by borrowers to lower their fixed-rate loans in response to decreasing market rates, we agreed to that in only a small handful of cases. So, in summary, the trend is an increase in core margin due to lower funding costs, combined with just moderately lower asset yields, the impact of the PPP and our expectation of higher lending spreads. Now let me give a word, too, on capital. The capital ratios remain strong, well above levels needed for well-capitalized. Our capital and liquidity levels continue to remain robust. And through internal stress testing, we show an ability to weather substantial stress over a prolonged period of time. Nevertheless, as Frank mentioned, we are suspending that share repurchase program for the time being, at least until the crisis clears. We recently declared our common dividend, have no plans to change that other than a slight change to the timing to conform with most of the industry. On the tangible -- I want to comment about tangible book value per share. It's increased, I think, over the last 10 or more quarters in a row. It fell slightly this quarter, but it was only by $0.13. But we had expected that drop as a result of merger, and we will continue, as always, to focus on building tangible book value per share. As Frank mentioned, I'm going to talk about CECL. He alluded to it, and we disclosed in the release, we decided to postpone adoption of CECL. When that flexibility to delay was announced, I basically jumped on it because I knew that the combination of this new complex accounting estimate, combined with the drastically changed economic situation and forecast that would lead to potentially a very nontransparent, confusing situation for all banks and investors. Now I do understand that many banks couldn't reverse course until they didn't have a choice on methodology, but we have the flexibility to go either way. And we do understand that postponing CECL raises a question of what will the effect be to the financial statements. So first, let me tell you, with regard to that day one adjustment and the Bank of New Jersey merger, we estimate that the impact is going to be an additional $20 million to $25 million increase to reserves. That includes the reallocation of the PCI nonaccretable marks totaling about $8 million. So, if you understand the math here, the charge to capital is only going to be $8 million to $12 million after taxes. And -- but with regard to regulatory capital, there are transition rules and effects. So, end of the day, not implementing CECL today has a very limited impact on regulatory capital. Secondly, turning to our loan loss provisioning for the quarter, I believe our COVID-related provision for this quarter was not materially impacted by using one method over the other. In other words, the loan loss allowance includes our estimated potential impact of COVID by utilizing qualitative factors and monitoring our deferral requests. Many other banks sticking to the incurred loss method came to the conclusion that the provisions could be lower. We didn't see it that way. To us, the crisis impacts provisioning in a similar magnitude, whether you use CECL or incurred loss, and that our provision and reserve reflects conservative estimation parameters. So, as you are all well aware, it's going to continue to be difficult for anyone to forecast economic conditions down the road. But I believe ConnectOne is both well-positioned and well-prepared, and we'll be closely monitoring the depth and duration of the crisis and its impact to our borrowers. I just want to turn to PPP, talk about that a little bit. We were and continue to be very successful participating in the PPP, helping the local economy and our borrowers, and also earning some extra income for us and our shareholders. We've been able to leverage our technological infrastructure. And our view, it has allowed us to effectively take advantage of the program. So, through the first funding round, as Frank mentioned, we had upwards of $400 million of fundings representing 1,400 loans. And the fees associated with it are expected to be in the $10 million-plus range. So those are yield adjustments that will flow into our interest income over the life of these loans. The life of these loans, we expect to be less than six months. On top of that, BoeFly as an agent is expected to book some fee income. And none of these numbers take into account second round of PPP, so even more revenue is potentially expected. So that is all for now. I look forward to your questions. But first, let me hand it back to Frank for some of his closing comments. Frank?