Bill Burns
Analyst · Piper Sandler
All right. Thank you, Frank. Good morning, everyone. I also would like to say a few words before getting started, and I wanted to address head-on what are probably the two most important factors currently depressing bank stocks, including our own. First and foremost is the possibility of a recession and the resulting potential impact on credit losses. And second, to a lesser degree, is the uncertain impact continued Fed tightening will have on net interest margins. So first, with regard to potential recession, its impact on ConnectOne. The credit story of ConnectOne is excellent. We have a long track record of solid credit performance. We've been able to produce strong organic growth, while avoiding hot-headed industries such as New York City office, hospitality, big box retail and New York City luxury multifamily. Our construction portfolio is about 10% of the total portfolio. We have a particular expertise here. It provides nice returns and losses have been virtually 0. We have immaterial amounts of consumer debt and virtually no second [position] retail and no credit card exposure. And even our taxing portfolio is now expected to generate recoveries. We are well reserved on the CECL with healthy level of total coverage. And our deep commercial origination franchise allows us to generate meaningful growth without reaching on credit pricing or terms. So all in all, we believe we're in a solid position to withstand an economic downturn. And that takes me to the net interest margin for ConnectOne. The second quarter reflected record high net interest margin that eclipsed 3.9%. And included in that 3.90% metric was some extra PPP accretion and some back interest recoveries. So on a core basis, I estimate we were still slightly above 3.70%, still very high by historical and industry standards, and moderately higher from the first quarter on that same. Our margin has continued to widen since the early stages of pandemic, which is remarkable. But I'm even more proud of the fact that it remains relatively stable, and we attribute that to two things. First, we've been proactive and reactive to anticipated and actual market and competitive rate moves, anticipating rate declines a couple of years ago, then locking in longer-term funding. And along with that, hedges to our AFS portfolio when rates were low. We tend to move quickly when market deposit rates start to change, whether it's to improve profitability or maintain our market share. And second, and just as important, our strong business development team continues to build the book of business that, I believe, is generally more valuable on the risk-reward spectrum than most. Our clients are typically willing to pay just a little bit more based on in our service and response time, while our noninterest deposit growth remains strong, reflecting a relationship-based approach. So that combination of organic growth and margin stability has led to a very strong performance track record, including PPNR, return on assets and equity, tangible book value per share growth and along with those metrics, a very low efficiency ratio. Now in terms of the margin going forward, again, our goal is for stability, and we believe our margin will continue to be relatively stable. Now just speaking structurally, there are asset-sensitive characteristics on our balance sheet, namely 20% of the loan book is pure floating, another 40% is adjustable, resets at various times over the next three years, and noninterest-bearing deposits have grown and are presently a healthy 26% of total deposits. Notwithstanding those positive attributes, there is some deposit beta catch-up going on impacting the entire industry, which is going to quicken the pace of increased funding course. And of course, we have an inverted yield curve. And for however long that last, it will be a challenge for all of us. On a related issue, the performance of ConnectOne securities portfolio has been among the best out there. We refrained from buying securities when rates were at the bottom. We hedged what we had, and the result has been just a very, very slight impact to our OCI and intangible book value per share. More recently, we've been buyers of securities yields in excess of 4% to 4.75% and those are now being marked up, not down. So tangible book value share -- per share increased once again in the second quarter. It's the 9th consecutive quarter of upward movement, and it's up 10% from a year ago. And by the way, as a result of that, we are now trading at a very low price of tangible book just 1.2x. We continue to believe we are undervalued. We have the capital strength and retained earnings to continue stock repurchases. Switching gears a little. I just want to emphasize some of Frank's remarks on BoeFly. BoeFly is bread and butter, which is the referral fees on SBA loans to franchisees, gain modestly as we continue to build our franchisor network. But additional avenue for growth is in the non-SBA franchisee lending space as well as the franchisor lending space where we're making headway, and that has already contributed to ConnectOne's increased C&I originations. We're also researching avenues to sell those loans in the secondary market, but either way, they bring value to us. Now let me move on to operating expenses. Adjusting for the final BoeFly earnout payment, which was $833,000 for the quarter. Expenses accelerated a little faster than I previously guided you. But you should view this as a good thing as it's all related to planned additions to staff that came on board earlier than expected. ConnectOne continues to be a top choice for experienced bankers displaced or dissolution by M&A. We're building for the future in our traditional operating markets as well as in extended geographies. For next quarter, as I said, the BoeFly earnout payments are done, but we do expect to see some more core expense increases, followed by probably a flattening out in the fourth quarter. So we're going to be okay with a slight increase in our efficiency ratio, but I expect that to continue to trend downwards towards the end of the year and into 2023. In terms of loan growth, the pipeline remains strong and another 5% sequential quarterly growth rate is possible. But with rates rising, we expect a slowdown in the fourth quarter, and that trend is likely to continue for us and the industry into 2023. And with that, I will turn it back over to Frank.