Robert D. Copple
Analyst · Lazard Capital Markets.
Barton, I think a critical part is the maintenance CapEx, which we would argue as productive. But by far, the big piece of maintenance CapEx this year is the rollout of digital and international. So when that pulls back, if we say that's $75 million [ph] , and so you move now down to that, say, $250 million to $275 million range. But what's really driving you at that point to push that kind of number is new-built CapEx. And, again, that will help maintenance when maintenance drops from, say, $150 million to $75 million or so. And that's probably a more normalized run rate. Well, I can always reduce them, and, in general, I'll be in that area. So that's arguing that you're spending -- but the question, do you spend $100 million on new build or $200 million on new build? And I think the key to us is, are we able to find opportunities to spend, say, $200 million and get the 20%-plus returns we look for with also the 20% margins we look for. And if we can find those in Latin America and expand the way we like to and/or some of that in the U.S., which we're also doing, I don't think we would be hesitant to consider those deals. So the key is, are they there? And definitely, in Latin America, we feel like they will be. I think in 2014, you're still -- it's not a huge growth in the U.S., it's just -- there's a number of projects that over the last 5 years have been moving and trying to get going. And there are projects that are probably very reasonable to build, and we'll pursue those. I think as you go further out, probably the U.S. drops back a little bit, international probably keeps going. So it's hard to say a real run rate. Is it $200 million? Is it $275 million? I don't know. It's probably somewhere between those. But the key to it is what that differential is being spent on assets to create additional EBITDA ROIs, it's not dead capital or anything.