Earnings Labs

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Jan 25, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the CN's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Financial Results Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Paul Butcher, Vice President, Investor Relations. Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Butcher.

Paul Butcher

President

Thank you, Greta. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I would like to remind you of the comments already made regarding forward-looking statements. With me today is Luc Jobin, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Mike Cory, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; JJ Ruest, our Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As to our prepared remarks, we will conclude with the question and answer session. In consideration of your time we are trying to keep this call to one hour and I will ask that you please limit yourselves to one question. I will be available after the call for any follow-up questions. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Luc Jobin.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thanks very much Paul and let me in turn welcome all of you to CN’s quarterly call. Today we will review our results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2016. The CN team is pleased to report another very strong quarter, one that cast the solid year of performance both financial and operating, including significant improvement in terms of safety, service and productivity. These results continue to show how CN is adapting to changing market conditions, ceasing opportunities every day whilst positioning for the future. We achieved strong results in the fourth quarter with an adjusted diluted EPS of $1.23 and that’s up 4% versus last year’s fourth quarter. We also saw positive momentum on volume with RTMs up 4%. That’s an encouraging sign that the worst of the market correction in several commodity sectors is behind us and brighter prospects lay ahead. JJ will give you more color on this in a minute. In terms of operating performance, we delivered very good metrics despite a more difficult winter in December of last year. Looking at full year results we are very proud of our performance especially given how challenging the year has been from a market standpoint and so for 2016 we achieved a full year adjusted diluted EPS growth of 3% to stand up $4.59. We also delivered a record-breaking operating ratio of 55.9% that is a full 230 basis points better than last year. It’s very tough to achieve this level of results and the entire CN team deserves credit, since we accomplish this with a clear view to meet high service levels and supply chain collaboration but not undermine our ability to grow as the market improves. Mike will give us a good look at how innovation, productivity and teamwork has been instrumental in reaching this milestone. In 2016 CN generated free cash flow of $2.5 billion up 6% versus last year. And last but not least, we announced today a 10% increase in our dividend. Later on the call, Ghislain will expand on other key financial metrics for Q4 and the full year as well as provide you with our earnings guidance for 2017 along with some key assumptions. Let me now turn it over to the team for their more detailed commentary starting with Mike Cory. Mike?

Mike Cory

Management

Well, thank you Luc. The CN team of professionals deserves accolades for achieving very good results for the fourth quarter in spite of the impact of December’s winter comeback story. I’ll go into further detail on the subject of winter a little later. On the full year basis the overall results were outstanding and they reinforce a supply chain approach. This is an approach that produces premium service at the lowest possible cost by understanding the customer demand in executing our operations to efficiently deliver it. On a full-year basis, all of our key operating metrics see previous records with the exception of train speed. Train speed was slightly down since our record performance of 2010, however volume is up 24% and trains are carrying 16% more payloads since that time period. For Q4 workload, and are measuring this in GTMs we were up 8.4% in Q3 and up 4% from Q4 of 2015. In Q4, we set an all-time record for train productivity at 9449 tons per train which is 5% higher than last year’s Q4. We also set a Q4 record for locomotive utilization which was up 7% year-over-year, all this was accomplished against the very tough comparable with a significant headwind of winter in December that we do not experience last year. In fact, going back over the last five years, the month of December 2016 was the second coldest with more days colder than minus 20 degrees Celsius than any other period for one year. As well, the snowfall we experienced was the second highest in the last five years and our major operating yards in Winnipeg recorded the highest level of snowfall in the history of the City. Considering the dramatic change in weather this December brought our response was swift and it ensured our…

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

Well thank you Mike. Great operating results by the operating team of CN. The fourth-quarter revenue of CN was up $51 million or 1.6% versus last year. The CN carload was up 3.4%, the revenue ton mile was up 4.2%, both were above the industry average. Q4 was broadly as follows; revenue increase from volume was about 3.5%. Our most positive business for Canadian and U.S. going, market share gain and refined petroleum products and automotive, U.S. housing start was driving our lumber and panel. Our intermodal from the East Coast did well, and finally we had recovery in Canadian export of Pet coke and potash. On the negative side, less long haul of crude by rail, less U.S. terminal coal and less sulphur. The applicable fuel surcharge lowered our revenue by about 1% and the all-in same store price on same store sales was up 2.7%. When excluding the regulated grain, same store price was up 2.4%. The Canadian dollar had no impact on revenue this past quarter. I will now go through some selected details and outlook of our very diversified portfolio. Starting with grain, our grain operation was very fluid as my partner Mike just described earlier, we did a great job especially in December, which meant that for U.S. grain that when I look at the as reported Q4 our carload we were up 8000 cars and the revenue reported revenue was up 19% or $30 million. This was driven by soybean and corn export. On the Canadian grain when you look at it on the as reported on the Q4 AAR carloads we were also up about 6000 cars, these are longer haul and the reported revenue was up 13% or $40 million. This was driven by strong export of canola and by all peak…

Ghislain Houle

Management

Thanks JJ. Starting on page 11 of the presentation, I will summarize the key financial highlights of our solid fourth quarter performance. Then I will comment on our full year 2016 performance and finally I will provide our guidance for 2017. As JJ previously pointed out, revenues for the quarter were up 2% versus last year at slightly over $3.2 billion. Fuel lag on a year-over-year basis represented a revenue headwind of $24 million or $0.02 of EPS driven by an unfavorable lag this year of $10 million versus a favorable lag of $14 million experience in Q4 of 2015. Operating income was just shy of $1.4 billion up $40 million or 3% versus last year. Our operating ratio came in at 56.6%, a record for fourth quarter and representing an improvement of 60 basis points over last year. Other income was $91 million compared to $16 million in 2015. This increase is the result of the gain on aligned sale in Montreal of $76 million or $66 million after tax. Net income stood at [$1.018 million] or 8% higher than last year with reported diluted earnings per share of $1.32 versus $1.18 in 2015, up by 12%. This includes the gain on the one time aligned sale I just mentioned. Thus excluding this gain adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter came in at $1.23 up $0.05 or 4% versus last year. The impact of foreign currency on an income EPS was negligible in the quarter. Turning to page 12 as Mike previously pointed out; we continued to make progress in the quarter in terms of productivity gains, including cost management initiatives while providing superior service. Our operating expenses were up 1% versus last year at just over $1.8 billion, mostly driven by higher volumes versus last year. As the…

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

All right. Well, thank you very much, Ghislain, JJ and Mike. I think what we’ll do now is we’ll turn, we’ll open the lines to take your call. So we are now ready to take the calls.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Jobin, we will take questions. [Operator instructions]. The first question is from [Wayne McDonnell] of CN. Please proceed.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

That was a mistake. There are no questions. I was just listening to the call.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

All right. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. The next question is from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays. Please proceed.

Brandon Oglenski

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed

Hey. Good afternoon everyone and thanks for taking my question. So, Luc or JJ, can you just give us some feedback? Obviously, the landscape or at least the future landscape for NAFTA has change a little bit with the U.S. elections. Have you gotten any feedback from your customers? I mean has anything structurally changed yet and are you rethinking your capital allocation process? I mean, when you think about some of the assets that are involved in North America trade, especially some other railroad stocks and valuations have come down a lot now, does that make you think strategically a little bit differently about the outlook?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Thanks Brandon for your question. Well, just talking little bit about NAFTA, I mean again from the Canadian perspective we are cautiously optimistic, again we’ve been long trading partners with the United States and there's a lot going on and there is a certainly a relationship which is very different between Canada and the U.S. versus Mexico and U.S. So, the balance trade is much more – a much closer and we also -- when you look at the manufacturing jobs that moved. They moved out of Canada and out at the U.S. and in many over to Mexico. So, if you look at what might be more affected certainly the automotive sector both parts and new cars with the potentially at the crosshair of that, but that’s a very small percentage of what we actually export to the U.S. Southbound. So, we don’t expect any significant change, I sees not in the foreseeable future and I think most of our customers and JJ can supplement, are taking the same sort of optimistic yet cautious approach and we’ll have to work things out, but generally what we've been hearing from the U.S. folks is encouraging and we’ll have to kind of work through it. There is free trade agreement which predate NAFTA and so there’s a long-standing relationship of bilateral negotiations and working out issues. As it relates to how this may affect other railways. At this point it hadn’t necessarily changed our views. I think it's still too early to call the game and so we’re going to have to see how things evolve and where the dust settled in the end. JJ anything you want to add in [terms of any].

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

Yes. That’s been my opening comments, we are constructed about the volume outlook. We are aiming to outperform the rail industry average and after three weeks we're leading with 5.5% carload growth. And also we look at the U.S. I mean, we got about 17 or so percent of our business which is domestic U.S. Brandon, so I think there are plenty of opportunities for us to grow as potentially more manufacturing and more jobs get created in the U.S., so we’re looking forward to that. Thank you.

Brandon Oglenski

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed

No problem.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Walter Spracklin of RBC. Please proceed.

Walter Spracklin

Analyst · RBC. Please proceed

Very much, good afternoon everyone.

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

How you’re doing Walter?

Walter Spracklin

Analyst · RBC. Please proceed

So I guess, the most common question I get is on your [OR] improvement in and how you can get much lower and it seems to be the question that recurs every year and you do deliver on that. So I guess I'll ask it again, Mike you've got and you’ve demonstrated some significant trends and improvements that seem to look like they’re going to carry forward in the next year. Look, you talked a bit about technology investment, is there any sense, is our improvement in the cars for next year and can you give us some insights into what your assumption is for OR that the drives your current EPS guidance?

Mike Cory

Management

This are the tough one, Walter, we can never answer it seem. So I’m going to give you this. I’m going to give you four points that are basic to what I would say fundamental success in railroading. The first thing that we focus on is understand what we’re trying to accomplish. From that we set plans that have targets that require improvement whether we put one less asset into the plan, one less person whatever it is we set very tough target. And then we measure them religiously. And when we see something we take action immediately. Now, that's all I’ve done with strong leadership, the sacrifice I talked about, that will get strong work. That’s we’ll strong war. We’ll never stop doing that. The thing is the investment, the item of the future technology. We have everything in the works. We just expect to continue to improve on not to OR, but every aspect of the business that we go after.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Thanks Mike. And Walter, I mean, it’s always a balancing act. I mean, what try to is be as productive as we can, and as Mike pointed out to drive down costs where we’re not see necessarily adding the whole lot of value. The flip side is we are set on gaining traction in the market place, so we’re not shy about if we see opportunities and we want to invest a little bit and getting that business on board, we can do so. Our low OR allows us some flexibility and our confidence that we can continuous improvement that we can bring on new business and drive it to a level of productivity that’s our strength. And so, all that to say, we’re not going to guide on ore and we’re always trying to solve for what’s the best bottom-line and sustainable growth that we can bring on the network, and it will bounce around a little bit given sometimes you’ll have weather that comes into play and at a times you’ll have a few other things that can cause it to bounce around. But I think we just deliver and you can rest assured that team here is set on growing the business and doing so as efficiently as possible, but not at the expense of more service offering. And that’s the key, that’s the magic to the equation here.

Walter Spracklin

Analyst · RBC. Please proceed

Okay. Thank you very much.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Walter, we look forward to the question next year.

Walter Spracklin

Analyst · RBC. Please proceed

Thanks.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

All right.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Ravi Shanker

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed

I want to follow-up on that question, the risk of maybe asking the same question again in different way. If I were to kind of try and bridge your topline guidance to your EPS guidance, it does look like you said 3% to 4% volume growth and pricing over inflation, that by itself should get you to something close to mid single-digit EPS growth not to mentioned as you said continuous OR improvement and buyback on top of that. I just want to make sure that there isn't something you're missing in terms of a headwind to earnings next year kind of below the line or at our lines itself?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean, you’re not missing much, I mean, the reality is, again I mean we set out and we look at – we have as much visibility than anybody else, so we take a few and I think that what we’ve said is a fairly constructive view in terms of a number of commodity sectors seem to have stabilized and are showing encouraging signs of progress. So, the guidance that we’ve provided in mid single-digit is the reflection of what I would describe as that volume growth, the pricing that we talked about and continuing to deliver solid operating metrics including OR. So, that’s the equation and if you solve for that you get mid single-digit.

Ravi Shanker

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed

Great. And can just have one more, on the shared gains, you certainly had a very good recent track record with the picking up share. Where are we with that shift, I mean, do you think that’s kind of normalized between you and your chief peer or do you there are more opportunities out there? Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

There is more opportunity, as geographic expansion or serving customers who are today we’d like to get a better service. So now there, I would not discount potential to – getting to which market, but there is some business saw there, that we think we could that maybe the customers would like to have business with us?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ravi. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Fadi Chamoun of BMO Capital Markets.

Fadi Chamoun

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Yes. Good evening. Just a clarification, I’m not sure I said that. Does the guidance include a buyback for 2017? And secondly for JJ, when you look at the what's going on with the new alliances, ocean’s helping alliances, do you feel unbalanced that this is something that creates opportunities for you to fill that incremental capacity on the West Coast or does it represents more of a risk of this stage, any visibility on that would be good?

Ghislain Houle

Management

Hi, Fadi, this is Ghislain. For your first question, yes, the guidance includes a $2 billion program for share buybacks in 2017. But then JJ if you want to say.

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

Yes. Fadi, on the ocean shipping, all the ocean shipping alliance will make into effect May 1st, this is where all the musical chairs, when the music stop and everybody has a different chair. It does provides some kiosk in the marketplace if you wish from point of view, at the same time in the case of Rupert because the expansion is coming in June and July, I’m sorry and we’ll have the second, but it does provide opportunity. We are selling what the Hanjin and Rupert right now very hard. And in the case of Vancouver with Delta Port having this rail on the capacity up a 40% by the end of April, it also offered opportunity for us and our partners to go out and sell to for bigger ship, bigger ship having bigger discharge, and if the ship coming as a first part of call whereas Vancouver it really gives us a great service to go and sell into market where our and to that market where market share today is suboptimal. So lastly, we were restricted the capacity. I think this year we have an open field as of sometime in the spring and we are running hard to exploit all we can out of that.

Fadi Chamoun

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Thanks very much.

Ghislain Houle

Management

Thanks Fadi.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Jason Seidl of Cowen & Company. Please proceed.

Jason Seidl

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please proceed

Thank you, operator, and thank you for taking the time. I wanted to go back on pricing side; I think earlier on you mentioned that things were starting to tighten up. I was wondering if you can give us a little more color as to where you starting to see that, and sort of, are you starting reprice contract at a little bit better way than you thought you were?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

So, I think there are few – the line was not that great. Your question was around pricing and pricing outlook getting slightly better. Is that right, Jason?

Jason Seidl

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please proceed

That is correct, yes.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So, definitely the last two years have been little more challenging than the years prior to that partly because the capacity of all more available, we see, I think on the trucking side there’s been less equipment been purchase, the people have cut to vacant their capital expenditure. On the rail side the capacity is going to be tightening. This is where you’re going to get into commodity by commodity. Now railroad may have a lot of locomotive but they may no longer the specific type of gondola or specific type of rail equipment that a customer is looking for. So this is where you start getting to the sub-segment of, I do have crews network capacity and I have locomotive, but don’t have any more center beam or I don’t have any bi-level or on the trucking side I think people can only do so long at calling low price and year after cutting low price and then eventually start to get the result of what the living as a result of this low price. So I think the discipline often comes back as a result of phases with some pain and then each market players I think would like to eventually slightly better price, and each market players is also in some cases or at least in some equipment getting to the point, we get to invest new capital money and now they look at it differently, still longer in incremental sale, it’s the sale has to pay for their newer railcar that they have to bring in.

Jason Seidl

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please proceed

Okay. And how much your book of business is already priced at 2017?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Same as in the past, we sign a multiyear contract and so we’re probably turning the book of business maybe like every three years or so.

Jason Seidl

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please proceed

Okay.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thank very much.

Jason Seidl

Analyst · Cowen & Company. Please proceed

Guys, I appreciate the time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Tom Wadewitz of UBS. Please proceed.

Tom Wadewitz

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed

Yes. Good afternoon. I wanted to see if you could offer within the volume growth guidance that you said three to four, is there a mix effect that would be meaningful and then positive or negative that might kind of translate to revenue growth in a certain way and then I don’t know if -- just a kind of little more color on that intermodal volume outlook, it sounds like there was potential but it was kind of has been weak recently, so any thoughts on those do appreciate it? Thank you.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

On intermodal we haven’t hit I will stride yet, I think we were negative for a while and now we’re flat and we now hoping for better days to come in spring and summer time for the reason I mentioned earlier. And yes, I think the mix has changed quite a bit last, short-haul business been last, long-haul business been gain, long-haul crude disappearing, long haul frac sand coming back in, I think we’re going to some of that this year as well. Intermodal if it comes that’s fairly long-haul too, but its slower weight and we talk about the expansion of Delta Port, so right now on the mix side, I’m not too sure exactly where it will go for this year. And there’s a lot of -- we’re not into steady in the environment, we’re into bit of a recovery phase from a volume side, but I think there is reason to be optimistic about volume for this year. I think for the rail industry in general but definitely at CN.

Tom Wadewitz

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed

Okay. Thank you.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Tom.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Steve Hansen of Raymond James.

Steve Hansen

Analyst · Raymond James

Yes. Hey, guys. Thanks for time. If I'm looking at the volume growth side of things the strength that appears to be carrying over and Q1 appears quite robust and if I'm looking at the pretty low hurdle in the Q2 given last year’s turmoil, it strikes me that your backend guidance assumptions are probably a little bit conservative or it strikes me that they are conservative. Any thoughts around sort of cadence throughout the year in terms of how the growth will progress in that 3% to 4%?

Ghislain Houle

Management

The first quarter last year, we have tougher winter, so this is really move all the volume we wanted to move, but at time we get to the second quarter we were running very smoothly, but the demand for our product was not that great, you remember that the volume in Q2 wasn’t that great. And then it starts to pickup in the summer time. And our fourth quarter volume, last year it’s been pretty good, so that’s kind of the cycle of what you'll see. But all in, the guidance is volume that we talked about and one we’re sticking to it right now.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

And Steve, it Luc. Just keep in mind, I mean, if you got better visibility on the second half and we do we’d be more than happy to share notes with you. So at this point I think this is a fair annual guidance and as you indicated, I mean, we do expect to have stronger comps through the first half and then as the year unfold then if we see that the trends are evolving in a way that these are better or worst then we’ll readjust thing, so but…

Ghislain Houle

Management

We are cautious people. I think last year everybody had different guidance. We finished at 3% EPS growth which in the end was one of the best in the industry.

Steve Hansen

Analyst · Raymond James

I appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

Ghislain Houle

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Scott Group of Wolfe Research. Please proceed.

Scott Group

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please proceed

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. So, I wanted to go back just the OR question. So, if I just take the pieces of your guidance with volume and price and buyback and earnings, it does imply about a point or so maybe even a point or two OR degradation this year. So is that what you're telling us or maybe is there something conservative in the guidance or maybe something is changing or if you look in the fourth quarter RTMs were up 4% and earnings were up 4%, so maybe something is changing where you just not getting the operating leverage, so how are you kind of answer that, but the guidance does seem to imply OR degradation this year and curious on your thoughts?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Scott, its Luc. Just to give you a little bit more color, I mean, one of the issue that you still have to keep in mind is that we did have a fairly mild winter and when we look at the last year, so that’s not a god-given right and even though people talk about global warming we’re certainly facing more, what I call the more normal winter in fact a little bit more than that if you look to how Decembers came up. In any event, so I think there is a little bit of noise there in terms of where and how the year will unfold from a pure costs standpoint. And I think again we take a cautious view of sort of the second half in terms of volume. So, the numbers are there and it’s in the zone, so it’s still too early to say whether our OR will determine or not. There isn’t anything that's going on that is particular, it will be again, I mean it will be a question of mix. It will be question of when and how the volume is layered on. Certainly you can expect that will continue to manage the cost very tightly and continue as the mentioned earlier to seize opportunities where we can and we are prepared to invest a little bit more and take on business that maybe at a slightly higher OR, that’s the right thing for the franchise for the long-term. So I think the precision you’re looking for is not what we do focus on. I mean, what we're doing is we get there, we got a good operating plan, we got a good commercial plan and every time there is an opportunity, we look at it and move on it. So it could be just as much in terms lowering costs, increasing productivity or putting on more business. So you are in the zone, but we’ll have to see how it shakes out.

Scott Group

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please proceed

Okay. And that’s helpful. If I can ask JJ just one clarifying point. So I think you said price was up 2.7% and fuel was down one, but total carload yields were down too, so that implies like a three to four point headwind for mix and carloads and RTMs were pretty similar, so what am I missing on the mix headwind this quarter?

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

So on the same-store price it was 2.7% and I want to add, if I remove the regular grain, it was 2.4%, the difference between these two assets, because we do have peak pricing on our grain business that we start October 1st. And what you’re referring to is the impact of the mix. Now we lost, we lost from long-haul business versus the year before and crude by rail has also been shift in our frac sand which is also long haul. The [Indiscernible] business was flat, so there’s a lot of mix noise in our mix result, which impact these revenue ton-mile and these revenue per carload. But when we’re already managed the business, we don’t manage the business on those matrix, we manage it on same-store price. We manage on revenue to cost ratio, contribution per carload, revenue ROI on equipment and then also we have the impact on exchange and fuel on this revenue ton mile and revenue per carload. So you’re looking at data that in the end is not really that useful to understand our yield. The element that we use and the one I mentioned, the one I listed here.

Scott Group

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please proceed

Okay. Thank you.

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from [Indiscernible] of Scotia Bank. Please proceed.

Milan Posarac

Analyst

Hi, there. This Milan Posarac online for [Tron]. Just wondering CapEx been coming down here last couple of years and you’re guiding for a small decline in 2017 as well, so volume is recovering a bit here in 2017. Should be expect CapEx then to resume its upward trajectory in 2018 or do you think you’ll have a little bit of a longer holiday? Thanks.

Ghislain Houle

Management

Well, this is Ghislain. So absolutely CapEx as I guided was 2.5 versus 2.75 last year. We did say that we had locomotives in 2016 that we were not expecting in 2017, so that helped reduce the envelope, offset a little bit by an uptick on the PTC investments going forward. I think we’ve been very consistent on our investment and capital program. I think we’re always going around 20% of revenues or close to 50% of operating income back to the business. So in my view if I were you I would not assume anything otherwise. I think in that ranges is the range of we’re looking for.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Milan, its Luc. I mean, we obviously are looking whenever we can see opportunities to invest and to further advance our competitive advantage, we’re not shy about doing that. So our eyes in the long-term and as we move forward we have indicated that there may be some opportunities more on the technology side and so we’re looking really hard and we’re not shy about investing. We do have a good track record of delivering returns on capital investments. So that’s of a posture on that.

Milan Posarac

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ken Hoexter of Merrill. Please proceed.

Ken Hoexter

Analyst · Merrill. Please proceed

Great. Good afternoon. Nice job on the quarter and tough weather spike it sounds like, but clearly impacted a punch of peers. For that reason I guess, was there any reason for casualty spike, it was the highest level since the fourth quarter level since 2004, just I guess technical question following on Scott's cost side, but just a longer-term picture that the thoughts our large wins, your big revenue wins with the GM business, Yang Ming. Should we look at this says is the pricing side is as you asked before? Is there a capacity need? What's driving those wins? I’m just wondering, I guess there were large expectation, some of that would move back to your peer, but when you keep winning like this it just wondering, it that just service or is it pricing?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

So Ken, I think there’s two sides of your question to make sure. So the first one is one casualty and other and the second one is market share. So I’ll tackle the first one. And I’ll let JJ tackle market share. So the first one I explain what happen on in the fourth quarter that explain that variance of $40 million, it’s really an annual throughout that you do with our U.S. legal claims. And about 25 million was another 15 or that was a credit in last year. When you look at casualty and others, sometimes they’re lumpy items that come in a quarter. If you want to look at a run rate, I think we’ve said in the past that 90 million give or take in a quarter is a good number and that’s what I would use going forward, but sometimes depending on what happens in certain quarters, you might have a lumpy piece hitting like the one that we have on the fourth quarter. JJ you want to talk about the market share, please.

Jean-Jacques Ruest

Management

Yes. So when you look and see accounts like General Motors or [Kia] or Mazda or Yang Ming that they are in the world where service is very key for their own success and I think Mike Cory in his opening comment said it right, our aim to produce a premium service at the lowest operating ratio and that’s supply-chain. So our mindset is to try to put ourselves and issues of this company especially those who are face where in a world where service does matter, automotive and delivering to warehouse and assembly plant and retailers and try to create supply-chain that starts before CN and finished after CN. So we’d become relevant for them. And that’s how we – customers don't change from one supplier to another without good reason. Everybody obtain which are things are running well, why we’ll make a change, so it starts probably with a some level of dissatisfaction and then looking at something that's more appealing and having little taste of it because we do business with all these people. We were doing business with all of these customers. We’re just going to be doing more of it. And our job is to help them win in their market and that’s the reason why they’d like to little more with CN where are pile of – pile of the extension of their success, so and of course people want to pay a fair market price and having the lowest operating ratio in the industry allow us to compete when we want to.

Ken Hoexter

Analyst · Merrill. Please proceed

Very helpful. Appreciate the insight from both. Thank you.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ken.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from David Vernon of Cormark Securities. Please proceed.

David Vernon

Analyst · Cormark Securities. Please proceed

Hello. Two questions please. One is just on headcount, could you give us your thoughts on that. And the second is on tax rate can you give us your thoughts on tax rate for 2017 both effective and the cash stocks?

Mike Cory

Management

Hi, David, it’s Mike here. Look, we modulate our labor based on demand demographics, productivity. We have people still laid off in some crafts. However we were very, very strong planning process and alignment with the variety of functions finance marketing sales operations where we meet regularly and we have a good view of the future and then we modulate our labor like I said.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

And on the effective tax rate I think we had guided 2016 at 26.5% and I would continue to use that same number for 2017. And on the cash taxes we are still around the mid-teen level, so that’s what I would use.

David Dalman

Analyst · Cormark Securities. Please proceed

Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thanks David.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · Cormark Securities. Please proceed

Thank you, David.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Brian Koenigsberg of Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed.

Brian Koenigsberg

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed

Yes, hi good afternoon. Actually just starting out with the point of clarification, on the revenue ton miles, on the release in the presentation it talks about 4% but if you look at your AAR data, it talks about that actually indicates our camp is up 6.3%. Can you just tell us what the difference is between those two?

Ghislain Houle

Management

So in our press release I think we are using the calendar month, the calendar quarter which is start December start first of October to December 31 and the AR does not use the same period. So this is why in my comment I did refer when I was talking ARR data I was specifically saying that and think because a lot of developed people I see use the ARR data to compare but this is where you get into – it’s not a quarter with 90 days like we have on the ARR. I think Paul could probably explain that in more specific detail after the call ends.

Brian Koenigsberg

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed

Okay, thanks for that. And can you talk a little bit on met coal, I think you indicated to the other customer that was expanding some production, there are possibly some others that could open up business again in 2017 and maybe a little bit more color on that and how significant that could be to the extent these production ramps do happen.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

In the last quarter of last year, the price of met coal, coking coal started to go up as a result of the Chinese production coming back. We had customers who had lot of energy, who had –was in bankruptcy situation, he had three mines shutdown. All of his assets were bought at a reasonable price by a company called Canuma. It did reopen one of the mine in November. We intend to open another mine sometime in – probably in sometime in the first half. May open a third one, it will all depend how the price of coking oil move around the well. If you have a very good color what the Canuma game plan is, they actually their CEO gave an interview on BNN where he explained all of his game plan how that have come together. But all that to say that coking coal for CN well now should not be a negative headwind, it should be something positive. And that in itself is what I was talking about earlier. All right, thank you Brian.

Brian Koenigsberg

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed

Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from David Vernon of Bernstein.

David Vernon

Analyst · Bernstein

Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. I guess Luc, maybe from a bigger picture sort of strategy perspective as you guys are kind of operating on all cylinders in a decent volume environment. Is there a point we just start looking at other ways to enhance cash flow whether monetization of assets maybe looking at coal production with CP, maybe looking at investing into adjacencies as this. How critical is this for the board and could you give us a sense for what you would think would be sort of fair game for what you could do to supplement the excellent operating results with corporate action?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean thanks for your question. It’s something that we are always looking at. And the first opportunity we look at is opportunities for growth in terms of advancing our book of business and investing in the franchise, so if there are opportunities for some co-investment or helping one of our customers grow and investing along with them we look at these things. In terms of co-production, again there these things are on the radar but they are very few that actually right now that we can look to that might be interesting so I don’t think there is a lot of potential there. We always look at other opportunities whether it’s adjacencies or bolt on smaller rails to acquire. So those again tend to be a little bit lumpy and we are cautious on adjacencies cause again you need to keep in mind we know what we do very well and unless we think that we can have a competitive advantage or improve our overall product by venturing into these things, we are not presumptuous enough to say that we can do all things well. In many cases what we’ve done as well is to have alliances in work supply chain and so we don’t necessarily need to own the asset but the way we work with our partners and scorecards and the way we work to improve the performance is clearly has paid off for us. So we look at every opportunity to grow, to continue to grow the franchise. These things are – they are not linear in terms of when and how they come to us, but rest assured we are looking and we are intent on growing this franchise, but in the flip side we are good custodians of the shareholders money and we do look for good returns before we look at acquisitions specially when you are outside of our field of expertise. Okay, thank you…

David Vernon

Analyst · Bernstein

Is that maybe just as a quick follow up, is there anything material that we should expect on asset monetization for next year or kind of runrate you’ll see how it goes?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

No, I think from that standpoint Ghislain referred to a little transaction that we were able to achieve by the end of the year. We don’t expect anything of magnitude being out there. Having said that, we are always looking at things and turning stones, so maybe what typically you look at – part of $20 million sort of runrate from miscellaneous parcels and stuff.

Ghislain Houle

Management

Yeah I would say about $20 million and to your point we always strive to find out things and sometimes things unfold in different ways during the year, obviously if we find some on used asset that we can monetize we certainly will run after it but at this point in time I would say that we don’t have anything specific on the docket and I would assume about $20 million of small sales, spread over the year basically.

David Vernon

Analyst · Bernstein

Very good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Cherilyn Radbourne of TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne

Analyst · TD Securities

Thanks very much, good afternoon. So a very strong operating quarter given the winter that you described. A bit of slippage in terms of the train and car velocity I assume a lot of that is winter but if those to the metrics I was also curious whether there were some tradeoffs being made in order to achieve the improvements in train productivity and locomotive utilization you reported, maybe you can just kind of talk a little bit about where you continue to unearth efficiency gains?

Mike Cory

Management

Cherilyn, its Mike here. Winter has obviously had its impact and will continue till it’s over. I said it before it’s really rebalanced all those metrics to produce first of all the service the customers demand and to JJ’s point make sure that we are just not looking at our internal workings, but we look at the entire supply chain and continue to grow that profitable business. So you’ll see changes throughout the year. We try to make the best decision again to grow the business at the most controlled price and give JJ and the team the opportunity to make sure that we are leading the supply chain. But really you’ll see those numbers fluctuate a little bit. They are certainly not out of the range that they normally are. There is no priority over either of them; it’s just about the demand for the customer.

Cherilyn Radbourne

Analyst · TD Securities

Great. That’s all from me. Thank you.

Mike Cory

Management

Thank you.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Cherilyn.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The last question is from Chris Wetherbee of Citigroup. Please proceed.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed

Hey great thanks and thanks for [squeezing] me in here at the end. A question on frac sand, so I think JJ you mentioned seeing some pick up there, just want to get a sense of kind of how we think about 2017 some of our internal views you were suggesting if you can step up in production just want to get a sense of kind of how you participate and maybe what that means to the mix of the overall business?

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

So the drilling activities is up definitely I think it’s well reported in most part of the continent. In the case of CN we participate in this same way as in the past that we have a destination franchise in Alberta and BC where the drilling activity is also up, example in the month of January. So that’s frac sands coming from [Indiscernible] long haul and we are competing with some local brown sand. And then we also participate in other some shell play where we bring the unit train or into frac sand a Chicago – we interchange with either eastern railroad or western railroad going south. So it is a good story, it has been sequentially up in the fall, sequentially up in the fourth quarter. We had a good start here to the year. On the Canadian side, the people drill, they love it when it’s cold so they can get in their much – heavy equipment on frozen ground and things don’t be surprised if things on the frac sand start to slow down sometime in the spring they call this during the break up after – the break up or after the when it gets really mushy or muddy and then there is a pause of a couple of weeks and then it restarts again. So now it’s a positive story. The price of crude and all of the technology of today is a decent outlook for anything which is fracing either for gas or oil.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed

All right. That’s helpful.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Chris.

Luc Jobin

Chief Executive Officer

So perhaps in closing to kind of recap, first I need to say I am very proud of what the team has accomplished this year. We certainly demonstrated and state our ability to deliver great results in a very challenging environment. You heard JJ describe how our volume outlook has now turned positive. Mike illustrated for you how the operating team continues to drive our agenda of operational and service excellence in leveraging innovation. Ghislain shared with you our financial performance came together in 2016, its clean and it’s straightforward. And you have received our annual earnings guidance for 2017 which is calling for mid single digit EPS growth. So looking ahead, we set out for 2017 with a constructive view and while the environment remains somewhat mixed, we do expect to see moderate volume growth. Then we’ll see how it unfolds. One thing for sure, with relentless focus on safety, productivity and service our industry leading team is intent on delivering solid execution. With continued focus on leveraging our superior customer service and our supply chain approach to help us gain traction in the market place. We continue to reinvest in our business with a long term perspective and we are well positioned to deliver a continued share holder value. So on that note we look forward to reviewing our first quarter results with you sometime in April and in the meantime, thank you very much for joining the call and be safe. Thank you, we are ready to close the call. Greta?

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.