Richard Tobin
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead, your line is open
Okay, I'm on slide 14. In terms of the operating profit performance for the year and the quarter, as you can see that the volume -- the negative volume has been largely offset with positive pricing cost containment actions and alike as we've been guiding all year for the Q to Q and Q4 was going to be weaker, largely as a result of production timing versus last year. But overall, a half a percentage decline in operating margin and a significant headwind on the top line. So another strong performance by Ag for the year protecting margins in a difficult market conditions while it deleverages its dealer inventory. Next slide. Call your attention to the bottom left, NAFTA row crop production in units down full year, almost 30% and total channel inventory almost down 20%. I know the question will come up what if our plans for '17 versus '16. We expect in NAFTA to under produce in line with our forecast which I'll get to in a minute in terms of the decline. But not to the extent the underproduction relative the market will be tighter, meaning that we won't have to under produce as large as we have been in the previous years. I think we mentioned in the last call that in terms of total inventory we're still a little bit long in channel inventory. On high horsepower tractors, we are largely in line [indiscernible] by now until we expect to have in line production year-over-year. You can see on the right side of the slide the performance for the regions, I think that we guided down NAFTA high horsepower and EMEA a little bit at the end of Q3, we didn't see any real deterioration from them as a pretty steady state. Next slide. In construction equipment, the difficult operating environment that we're experiencing largely through Q2 and Q3 continued into Q4. We took the decision to make a significant reduction in production intensity in Q4, to help out the pricing environment largely in NAFTA and EMEA. I think it's easy to see in the next slide. There you see the Q4 retail sales to production, we decided to curtail production significantly and that cost is something in terms of our earnings but we believe that that sets us up for more balance production, even some overproduction potential in 2017 and hopefully contributes to some amount of stabilization into the pricing environment largely in NAFTA. And then you can see the market conditions for the full year. NAFTA has been a little weaker than we had originally prognosticated and LATAM which we thought we would see some green shoots in the second half of the year really never came. So production intensity that we thought we're going to have in Q4 in LATAM never arrived. So we're going to have to wait for 2017. Next slide. Overall in commercial vehicles, very good performance, especially in commercial vehicles in Europe and we'll get to the market share performance in a moment. Despite negative headwinds in LATAM where the Brazilian market remained extremely difficult, we had a bad comp Q4 to Q4 because of the emissions changing regulations in Argentina, so we didn't have that tailwind that we had in Q4 last year and then we've got a contractual decline in specialty vehicles which is really order bank on the military business. Despite all that in commercial vehicles we increased operating profit by over $100 million quarter to quarter as a result of volume leverage, positive pricing, and the benefits of the footprint actions which are largely in the production cost line that you see there in previous periods. Next slide. Production largely in line with retail for the full year, so we really don't need to make any adjustments in terms of what relative to our forecast for 2017; you can see in the bottom right hand slide -- for the slide that order books are relatively stable year-over-year, so no real decline. Going into 2017, we're going to be calling the market flat for European truck demand, maybe slightly down in heavy but we think the good environment and like commercial vehicle we'll continue and as you can see that we gained market share in both, light and medium trucks, we had mentioned in the Q3 call that the heavy market was getting a little bit competitive, especially as it relates to price is likely as a result of the NAFTA market going down. The European market became more competitive but overall, very pleasing results as it relates to market share; I think that we're doing the right thing in terms of product quality and it's being recognized by the market. Next slide. In terms of Powertrain, I think this is the highest margin sense the demerger for the Powertrain segment, that's -- a lot of that is due to as we mentioned before that the third-party business as a percent of total revenue continues to increase; we would expect that trend to continue to 2017 but really firing on all cylinders from an operational point of view to the extent that our internal business on the off road segment begins to get some traction, we get some volume leverage through the balance of this portfolio. So we're quite pleased in terms of the performance or tell you that we benchmark our third-party business versus standalone engine suppliers in terms of profitability and we are closing that margin gap significantly, and then you see the units sold in the right side and we are the beneficiary of some of that change in units largely driven by European truck demand and third-party business. But a very good performance by Powertrain. Moving on, I won't go through this in detail I'm sure that you've been through it. I think that they are relatively in-line with other market participants both in the Ag sector and in construction equipment and trucks; so really no news here. We expect Ag and NAFTA to have another difficult environment. I think as I mentioned before that our requirement to under produce that significantly as we've done over the last two and a half years now is less so unless required in the past. I think that the fact that we did a very good job in terms of reduction of channel inventory gives us some hope that we can get closer to imbalance between wholesale and retail but today we would expect to under produce the market slightly in the numbers that you see here. We've exited Europe, a little bit weak, I don't think it's any news, you've see the data. In terms of France and Germany being a bit weak, Southern Europe has held up quite well, we would expect that trend to continue into next year. I gave you my comments on trucks where we think European heavy -- a lot dependent on what happens with the U.K. but we see Southern Europe continue to grow strongly and construction equipment slightly down, really not making any bold predictions in terms of LATAM, those are also incredibly low market comps for 2016. So the headline figure looks good but it's still not nearly where it was 36 months ago. Next slide. So in terms of the outlook, we've got it down here into some drivers of the financial targets for 2017. Agricultural equipment production to be more balanced to retail activity improving fixed cost absorption, positive impact from LATAM and user demand which is already seen in Q4, construction equipment pricing environment to stabilize, positive impact from new product launches and our excavator family, we've launched our mini-excavator a couple weeks ago, balanced strategy between market share gains and price realization in commercial vehicles, we've got some high hopes for our gas product line up which should improve the mix in the heavy segment and sustained third-party volumes and Powertrain which is a more favorable product mix. As you saw from the press release, back office consolidation projects and restructuring programs continue to be deployed with an estimated 2017 expense of $100 million, we expect to generate approximately $60 million of incremental savings in 2017 at an $80 million annualized run rate. Combined R&D and CapEx spending to increase by 10%, driven by a precision farming and Ag and preparation which we hope to be the return of market demand in the latter half of 2017 if not in 2018 and in preparation for stage five emissions regulations in Europe. Balance sheet deleveraging efforts and opportunistic capital market transactions will positively impact financial cost in 2017 and improvements in pretax profits and changes in corporate structure driving further tax rate reductions for the full year next year leading to net industrial activities of $23 billion to $24 billion in revenue, adjusted diluted EPS between $0.39 and $0.41 a share and net industrial debt at the end of 2017 of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion. As a note, we run euro-dollar FX at 1.05 to the dollar. And that wraps it up. So we'll go to Q&A.