Earnings Labs

CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Mon, Apr 27, 2020

$75.62

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to the CMS Energy 2020 First Quarter Results. The earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. This call is being recorded. [Operator instructions] Just a reminder, there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call today beginning at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time running through May 4. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Sri Maddipati, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations.

Sri Maddipati

Analyst

Thank you, Alison. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Patti Poppe, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risk and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix and posted on our website. Now, I'll turn the call over to Patti.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thank you Sri, and thank you everyone for joining us today for our first quarter earnings call. We hope that you're staying safe and healthy during these extraordinary times. This morning, I'll discuss our first quarter results and long-term outlook, as well as provide an update on our response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Rejji will add more details on our financial results later and discuss sensitivities related to COVID-19. And as always, we'll close with QA. I'd like to start by acknowledging that this health crisis is affecting scores of people in really unimaginable ways. My heart is with each of you, and I know that there will be a post COVID. May your family and friends be stronger, closer and at peace when all of this is behind us. You know what always keeps my team and I anchored is our focus on the long-term, and our commitment to the triple bottom line of people, planet and profit. We have a track record of delivering industry-leading financial performance and we have solid fundamentals in our favor that have served us well in years past and will enable us to navigate today and in the future. Now, let's get to the numbers. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.86 in the first quarter, despite challenging weather conditions and the onset of this unprecedented global pandemic. Our first quarter results were $0.11 better than 2019 results for the same period, mostly driven by cost management, regulatory outcomes and our ability to adapt to changing conditions, whether it be the temperatures outside or adjusting to life under a stay at home order. As a stay home, stay safe order is still in place for Michigan and the situation is continuing to evolve, it's too soon to provide an update on our…

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Thank you Patti, and good morning everyone. Let me first echo Patti's comments by wishing each of you and your loved ones safe passage through these trying times in which we live. As Patti highlighted, we're pleased to report our first quarter results for 2020. We delivered adjusted net income of $245 million or $0.86 per share. Our adjusted earnings excludes select nonrecurring items, primarily related to costs resulting from a voluntary coworker separation program which we commenced in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the favorable reversal of an accrued expense related to tax reform. For comparative purposes, our first quarter adjusted EPS was $0.11 above our Q1 2019 results, largely driven by rate relief, the net investment related expenses of utility and solid cost performance throughout our business. Switching gears to the COVID-19 related financial risks, as Patti noted, we are ever mindful of the potential impacts of COVID-19 on our business and have begun to implement cost control measures to mitigate these risks. On slide nine, we've provided a summary of potential impacts, as well as several mitigating factors which should help reduce our exposure to some degree. First, I'll start with utility, which I'll remind you, represents over -- about 90% of our business. The effects of the pandemic in Michigan that Patti referenced have unsurprisingly reduced commercial industrial activity in the state, which has begun to materialize in our electric sales. Based on daily volumetric trends extracted from our smart meters over the past month or so, we've seen declines in weather normalized commercial industrial load of about 20% to 25%. The C&I load reduction has been partially offset by residential load, which is up over 5% over the same timeframe presumably due to mass teleworking and self quarantine measures. As noted in the past,…

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks, Rejji. My coworkers and I remained on the job every day for our customers and for you, our owners. We're focused on delivering an essential service to nearly 6.7 million of our fellow Michiganders. The capital you all provide is critical and our long-term track record of managing that capital speaks to that commitment. As I mentioned, we've been good stewards of our balance sheet, with prudent planning and our conservative liquidity management continues. Already for 2020 we executed financings at attractive rates that enable us to fund our capital programs. Our operational excellence shines through during times like these. As we continue to rely on the CE way and lean in on that lean operating system we have in place, we improve each and every day. We put to work efficiencies that drive down costs and eliminate waste. And I can tell you that system is in overdrive right now, which speaks to our agility as we shift accordingly depending on how this current environment evolves. Since the 2008 energy law was established and updated again in 2016, Michigan has remained a top tier regulatory jurisdiction. With forward-looking test years and 10 months rate cases, we're fortunate to have such a constructive regulatory framework in statute. We also have a supportive commission. As you can see by the recent order responding to the pandemic for the protection of vulnerable customers while being mindful of utility, being able to fund its operations and attract low cost long-term capital. Our system remains in great need of replacements and upgrades and that won't go away as a result of the current pandemic. Again, we're fortunate that our plans have embedded structural cost reductions in the form of retiring coal plants and PPAs expiring. Finally, none of this comes at a price to our planet and the great state of Michigan we all love so dearly. Our net zero carbon and methane goals remain as important today as the day we establish them. Our model holds together well. That's why this thesis remains intact and that's why we can rely on our triple bottom line to get us through this current crisis just it has in the past and will do so in the future. With that, Alison, will you please open the lines for Q&A?

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much, Patti. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead. One moment please. Thank you. And Shar, your line is now open. Please proceed with your question.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning, Shar.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Morning.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst

Couple of questions here. So, first off, you talked about the $0.03 to $0.04 impact per month based on the sales sensitivities that you provided on slide 10. You're obviously levelizing this, but should we expect any kind of peaks or troughs over the next two quarters? I mean, some utilities assume business closures in Q2, some return in Q3 and a bit more of a mean reversion in Q4. I know we're only two months into this, but just trying to get a sense on the monthly profile of your sensitivities you assume in plan or really what the guidance can withstand. Obviously, on slide four there seems to be a little bit of cautious language around the uncertainty of duration and the full impact of COVID. So I know -- what are your prelim thoughts even though it's very early stage?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Shar, thanks for asking. We've tried to be really transparent here. We have a track record of offsetting negative impacts, the EPS, as you mentioned, ranging in as much $0.10 to 0.15. We also have a track record of transparency, which is why we've tried to be as direct and forthcoming as we can about the C&I sales that have dropped 20% to 25% versus expectations. And with then the offsetting residential sales up over 5%, the earnings impact, as you've mentioned and what we've said, is $0.03 to $0.04 per month under the current condition. Now, here's the variables. How fast will businesses bounce back? How soon will people gather in public spaces? How quickly will manufacturers be able to start making non-essential goods again? Our stay at home order is still in place till May 15. Will the government stimulus help so that the small businesses can come back after this? At this point, there's just too many unknowns, Shar. And so, while we'll continue to remain conservative, we don't feel that we know enough right now. And so I guess I would offer this thing. One thing you can count on us to do is to call it straight. We've never over promised and under delivered, and nor have we really under promised and over delivered. We do what we say. I'm comfortable in the fact that our long-term fundamentals are the same and our short term actions will stand the test of time. One of the things, Shar, I think about a lot is that our customers, our coworkers and our regulators will long remember how we handle these temporary times. I feel good about that because we're doing the right things and we like always are acting with the long-term in mind and the long-term outlook has not changed and our fundamentals remain sound. So, as we think about any adjustments we would make this year or any actions we would take this year, we're always thinking about the next year and the next. And so, we're balancing all of those factors and doing everything we can to serve the triple bottom line.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst

Got it. Let me just -- let's -- let's assume this is a little bit more protracted. Can you talk about sort of the incremental levers as you mentioned $0.12 to -- $0.10 to $0.15 of historical flex range on slide 11, do you have more?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

What I would say is our historical performance is a good indicator, but we've also -- now we're about four years into the CE Way and that thing is on overdrive. And our team is on the job. They're looking for waste elimination all across the organization. We have 1,254 projects already identified this year. Start the day, time reduction. Some of the things that we're doing now as a result of the crisis, such as jobsite reporting, are actually saving money. And so, it's both the combination of current factors. There's current environmental things that allow us to save money plus our CE Way and the waste elimination and our ability to deploy our team to as much long-term capital work are the kinds of ways that we see tackling this challenge in a sustainable way. We're always thinking about the next year and the next. And so the cost savings that we would do would only be those that don't do damage to the future. The one thing, we think about we're not going to pull out all the stops and do damage to future years to hit some kind of unreasonable outcome this year. We're going to be in it for the long haul. And I think that's why people trust us and invest in us.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst

Got it. And then just lastly, the volume reductions on the C&I side, the 20% to 25% reduction that you've seen since March. Can -- is that sort of auto, auto supplier related? what drove that?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

We have a limited exposure to auto, less than 2% tier one suppliers plus the automotive themselves to our margin. What we're seeing is more the stay home order closed all restaurants, it closed all retail other than non-essential retail like grocery. And so that's where we're really seeing a lot -- and small manufacturers that aren't making essential goods. As I mentioned, my husband and I did this fund and so we've had an opportunity to look at all of the applications just in Jackson County and it's a whole range of things, golf courses, restaurants, bakeries, retail, little manufacturing shops, welding shops. They're in a holding pattern right now, waiting for the order to be lifted. And some of those businesses, even after the order is lifted, will be affected by people's reticence to gather in groups. Others will get right back at it. And so, we see a balance between some of them just purely waiting for May 15, and they'll be back on it full time. And there'll be others that may have a demand reduction because of people's fear. And so, again, there's a lot of unknowns. And fortunately, our smart meter data is very accurate and we can see real-time what's happening and it helps us make better decisions and better choices.

Shar Pourreza

Analyst

Terrific. Thank you, guys. Stay safe and we'll see you soon.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks, Shar.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research LLC. Please go ahead.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Great. Thank you. Patti, Rejji, Sri, hope you're all doing well and your families.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks, Steve. Good morning.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Same to you Steve.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Yeah. Good. So, just the first on the sales. That March to April data, do you have just an overall number across the - the overall sales change?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Rejji, what's our total sales adjustment then?

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Yeah, so, we don't have -- if you're talking about post Q1 beyond March 31, we do not have a full read across all of our customers, because smart meter data…

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Okay.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

… [indiscernible] good portion of our customers are select classes of large industrial and commercial customers that do not have smart meter data available. We do get good anecdotal evidence from those customers and do get good visibility, but we don't get perfect information really until we get to the end of the quarter. So, there are some limitations in that. But I would say, Steve, going back to Patti's comments, the 20% to 25% we highlight here again that is not indicative of all of our customers, but it's a decent read for now for that monthly read that we've offered from late March through kind of mid to late April. So that's a -- again, it's not a every single customer, but it's a decent portion of them.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Okay. Yeah, just curious because when we've looked at regions, we're not really seeing any region down more than 10% or so, but obviously that doesn't get to individual states or territories. So, I'm just kind of trying to compare it to some of the regional data we've seen --?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah, Steve, I would say 10% total is a decent bogey that -- for our customer base as well. You're in the neighborhood for sure.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

That's exactly right.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then on this $0.03 to $0.04 per month thing data, a lot of utilities have different per -- depending on the season, the earnings impacts of the same sales change can vary, like a summer month might be worth more than a shoulder month. So, could you just talk about the seasonality of that sensitivity and just thinking about it this year?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Well, we always deal with seasonality and the weather and that's what we certainly -- weather and storms, we've done a good job overcoming. In this scenario, there are so many, I would suggest the bigger drivers than just the weather that seasonality is obviously clearly a variable, but not nearly as much as some of the unknowns associated with the rate the businesses return to action. I don't know, Rejji, you might want to add something to that though. Go ahead.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

The only thing I would add is that it's certainly the timing of this is -- somewhat fortunate because we do expect higher volumes as it starts to go a little warmer particularly in the residential class now. So, we'll see more industrial activity sort of as you get past those shoulder months. And so, the timing of this, I guess if you could it happen at any time, which you don't root for, this would be the time to have it. And so certainly there are greater expectations for load once you get beyond sort of the March/April timeframe.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Maybe I should have asked the question different.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Well, I'll just chime in. One last thing, Steve, that one of the points that we recognize is that even after an order is lifted, it's likely -- and I'm hearing from a lot of businesses that they'll keep their staff, their people working from home if they can. And so that residential bump may continue into the summer months and obviously air conditioning load is a big driver in Michigan to sales in the summertime. And so, if all of those folks are still or if a lot of people are still working from home that obviously has a favorable impact in the summer months.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Okay. Maybe I should have just asked, do you have a summer/winter kind of rate differential, or is it pretty much the same rate all year?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Generally the same rate all year.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Okay.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

So, next year we'll be implementing a more of a summer peak rate, but it's generally about the same throughout the year.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then one last question, just could you talk a little bit about the trends you're seeing so far on non-payments and kind of how notable that might be, any color there?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

We are watching that. The -- one of the things with the uncollectible accounts is they do lag. And so we can see to some degree, it's very early. If you can imagine, it's at a minim a 30-day lag so before we know if somebody didn't pay their bill. And so sometimes the uncollectible accounts really take almost three to six months to show up and to really be accounted for. And so, we're watching -- we're seeing a slight uptick, but it's early. It's -- we haven't even crossed all of the cycles for some of the customers.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Thank you.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks, Steve. Stay well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Michael Weinstein of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst

Hey, just to follow-up on some of those last questions. Can you speak to how some of this will be handled in the ongoing rate changes? So, I can have an almost annual electric rate case and an ongoing case it was just saw in February. So, how does that case get updated for changes to load -- changes and changes uncollectible and everything?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah. The cases are filed. Our gas case we filed in December and our electric case we filed here in February. So, there's not a clean way to have a significant substantive change to sales and frankly it would be hard to do it because we have forward test years. So what sales figure would we predict? So, we expect that our rate cases will continue as planned and because we do annual filings in the future, if there's a permanent degradation to sales, then we would reflect it. But it's pretty hard to capture a temporary degradation in sales like the one we're seeing in any kind of active filing. The good news is that our commission has been very supportive, just a shout out to the Michigan Public Service Commission and all their folks for adapting so quickly to this changing condition. They've already started holding their meetings and conducting business remotely through webcast. They too have had a significant impact. So thanks to all of them for acting so quickly and working with us on this new order for the CV-19 costs as well as the uncollectible accounts and trying to make sure that we, as a utility, are in a position to serve our customers well, do what's right, care for our most vulnerable customers and know that we can still function in a strong financial position that that reflects the capital attraction that we need to demonstrate. And so, great partnership with the commission and all their team, working so hard to just figure out these unknowables together.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst

Gotcha. And could you contemplate lower capital spending, if necessary things drag on long enough.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah. Right now, we're not seeing that in the plan. And in fact, we're working hard to make sure that -- for example, our power plants because energy load and demand is down, are an economic reserve, a couple of our coal plants. And so that gives us an opportunity to pull ahead of capital outage at that plant earlier in the year than we had originally planned. So, I don't -- we don't have any plans in the near term to have any adjustment to our capital plan. In fact, we're going to really work hard to make sure we keep that plan on track.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst

Got it. And on DIG, just wanted to ask about the local clearing requirement. It doesn't look like the impact of that Supreme Court decision would probably have to [technical difficulty] itself beyond. I just wanted to make sure.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah, the -- it -- because DIG is basically fully contracted, it doesn't have any certain impact on 2020, minimal in 2021, but there could be some out year impact that could be beneficial. But again, just keep in mind the DIG is predominantly contracted as Rejji had mentioned with high quality off taker. We are pleased with the outcome of that order though, and shout out to our legal team took it all the way to, the Supreme Court of Michigan did a great job advocating for the Public Service Commission and their authority to require a local clearing requirement. The law that we worked so hard to pass back in 2016, that was a fundamental element of it to make sure that Michigan as a Peninsula Zone 7 has adequate supply to serve the load. And with our kind of hybrid retail open access 10%, it does put at risk reliability in the state. So very happy with that outcome and very thankful and proud of my legal team for the great work that they did.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst

Yeah. It looks good. Hey, one last question on AMT credits and acceleration and the stimulus bill, have you guys quantified that at all?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah. So, we've benefited -- and remember it's just a cash benefit, but about $30 million of AMT credits, we'll pull forward in 2020, that would have originally been refunded in 2021. Again, that just affects cash, not earnings in any way.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst

And that’s all I have. Take care guys. Stay healthy.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thank you, Michael. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Julien Dumoulin Smith of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Julien Dumoulin Smith

Analyst

Hey, good morning to you. Hope you all are well.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Morning, Julien. You too.

Julien Dumoulin Smith

Analyst

Excellent. So, just wanted to follow-up. You all are maintaining your guidance. So when you think about the sales forecast that you're embedding in that, I understand the $0.03 to $0.4 here and sort of as a sensitivity, but what are you specifically thinking about in making that statement to reaffirm rather than withdraws? We've seen perhaps more so in other sectors. And to be even more specific about it, I think you've alluded to perhaps $0.15 or $0.16 of historical perhaps cost flexibility in your plans. Can you talk to that too as you think about what the latitude reaffirmed here?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

So, Julien and I know everyone wants precision in these uncertain times. And there's a reason why the word unprecedented is like the number one word in youth these days. We just haven't been here before. So, as we said, it's just too soon for us to update our guidance. And it would mean that we know exactly how to help -- how the health crisis ends, how the economy will look afterwards, and frankly we don't know. And so, there are reasons to believe in a bounce back. The federal stimulus is working or watching. It helps small businesses, but can the businesses get access to it? Construction, manufacturing, ag can bounce back quickly and work safely, but will there be demand? I talked to an office furniture CEO, most of the office furniture in the world is made right here in Michigan and I talked to one of the CEOs last week and they may be at all time highs because they save workplaces need to be reorganized and new furniture is going to be required or maybe none of us are reporting to an office ever again. There's just a lot of changes. Will there be a drive in residential electricity demand? We've talked about that already. Maybe there will be. The shelter in place order can be lifted, but how long will people feel -- will it be before people feel safe to congregate in a public gathering. I don't know. We don't know. But here's what we do know, Julien. We know that we need our coworkers healthy and motivated to do our capital plan and it's a good infrastructure plan that serves the people of Michigan. We need our regulators to trust that we're doing what's right and taking care of both our coworkers…

Julien Dumoulin Smith

Analyst

Got it. And then related question, super quick. I mean, you all are working proactively with the PSC here to address a recovery of certain items. How do you think about that being reflected again in numbers, specifically 20 here as you continue to move through the course of the year? I just want to be clear about that given some differences in the sector.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Well, we're going to have to see. We'll be filing our response. They've asked for comments, which is a very important and constructive. We need to hear from a lot of people as we make these determinations. Once the accounting is clarified and we've got certainty about that, then we can account for it. And then we'll have benefits obviously in 2020. They've been pretty clear about the uncollectible expenses as a result of a mandate to not shut off our most vulnerable customers, our seniors and low-income through June 1. And so, they've been pretty clear about those uncollectible expenses and the accounting treatment thereof, but it's really some of the other expenses and exactly the timing of that uncollectible when it materializes et cetera. So, others will be weighing in, and certainly I can't speak for the MPSC, but I can just say that we're working together to make sure that we're able to serve the most vulnerable constructively.

Julien Dumoulin Smith

Analyst

All right. Well, I'll leave it there. Thank you all very much.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks Julien.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Stephen Byrd

Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning, Stephen.

Stephen Byrd

Analyst

Wanted to give congrats on all the community outreach efforts that you all are making. It looks like a lot of great stuff going on.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks.

Stephen Byrd

Analyst

Wanted to -- a lot of my questions have been addressed, but just on the EnerBank side of things, could you just talk a little bit more about new business opportunities that you're seeing? I guess I'm certainly not a bank analyst, but I would have thought sort of home improvement activity would be going down a great deal, but I was just curious what you're seeing on certain new business.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Well, I've been doing all the talking, so I'm going to hand it over to Rejji. He is the Chairman of the EnerBank Board. I'll let him speak about the great work that the EnerBank team is up to. Go ahead, Rejji.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Thanks Patti. And good morning, Stephen. So Stephen, I would say that -- and that's certainly we did see a little bit of a slowdown in March on origination volume, but we've actually been encouraged with what we're seeing in April. And it's important to note a couple of things. So, every state has a different approach to the executive orders that have rolled out, but financial service is deemed an essential service and that's a federal mandate. And so, we've managed to continue our underwriting and also, construction projects that are work in progress or quipped. For all intents and purposes, those bits of work have also been permitted to continue on. And so, we really haven't seen the type of slowdown you would anticipate for some of the loans that EnerBank has historically underwritten. So, I would say encouraged by what we're seeing in April unsurprisingly, a little bit of a slowdown in March. And we still think, they started the quarter off or the year off pretty well, about a penny above the prior year. And we're only asking for about a penny to two of growth year-over-year for them and they appear to be on track. And so, the other opportunities as you think about origination volume is also on the gain share side. And so what we've seen in the past, particularly in 2008/2009 is you had a lot of weaker capitalized competitors who kind of fell by the wayside. And we've already seen anecdotally some large customers come our way, because they know that EnerBank is in it for the long haul. This is their primary focus. And so, we've actually taken some share, which we also did in 2008/2009. And so, just existing originations and continuing to execute on our plan as well as taking share also create opportunities this year. And so, we feel good about the road ahead where we sit at this point.

Stephen Byrd

Analyst

That's really helpful, Rejji. Thank you. And then just one other question on your 2020 EPS slide 11. More of a housekeeping item, but just you mentioned the historical flex range of $0.10 to $0.15 on that slide. And I just wondered what timeframe? Is that annual, is that for the nine months to go? I just want to make sure I understood that.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Rejji, you can go ahead.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Sure. Great. So, yeah, we look at that range and it's based on what we've done historically over the last several years. And so, we've seen that level of negative variance in a quarter. We've seen over the course of the year, but we've managed to and in historical context, overcome levels of flex of that magnitude or levels of negative variance of that magnitude. As I look at this year we certainly think that $0.10 to $0.15 year to go is certainly within us. And let's just think about what that math equates to. So, on the low end about $40 million pretax, on the high end call it $60 million to $65 million. And when you think about our year to go spend, we've got about a $1 billion of, I'll say, actionable opportunities between operating and non-operating cost pools. So that reduction equates to a little more than 5%, which is certainly within us. And so not to suggest it's easy and to Patti's earlier point, we're not going to do anything that's rash or detrimental to the years to come. And so, we do feel like it's within us, but at the end of the day we'll have to see how this situation in Michigan materializes, and we'll make prudent decisions as we always do.

Stephen Byrd

Analyst

That's great. Thank you. That's all I have.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks, Stephen.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Jonathan Arnold of Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Hi, Jonathan.

Operator

Operator

One moment please. And Jonathan, your line is open. Please proceed.

Jonathan Arnold

Analyst

My question was just answered. Thank you.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks, Jonathan.

Operator

Operator

All right.

Jonathan Arnold

Analyst

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next -- and our next question will come from Andrew Weisel of Scotiabank. Please go ahead. One moment please. Okay. Mr. Weisel, your line is open.

Andrew Weisel

Analyst

Hi. Good morning everyone.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning, Andrew.

Andrew Weisel

Analyst

To go back to this $0.03 to $0.04 monthly EPS impact from lower volumes, if I'm reading that correctly, that's only on the electric side. Do you have preliminary April data for gas demand? And what that might mean for a monthly run rate? It's a shoulder season, of course, but do you have any kind of ballpark rule of thumb for the gas side?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah, first of all, as I mentioned, Andrew, the bulk of our gas is certainly during the heating season and that is behind us. That ends in March. And so, the $0.03 to $0.04 represents electric and gas for your sensitivity.

Andrew Weisel

Analyst

Okay. Good. Thank you. Then last question is for the two rate cases outstanding, have the conversations changed much given COVID-19? I know you're always laser focused on affordability. But are you hearing more concerns about things like the jump in unemployment and that were presumably in a recession? And as part of that, do you see any potential for the timing to be elongated, whether that's due to logistics or affordability concerns?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Affordability is always factored into our filings to begin with. And so, for example, gas, our gas bills or customer's bills are down 30%, because of commodity benefits. And so, I personally think there's no time like now with the commodity prices where they are and how it's clear they're going to remain where they are, that we make the system safer. The system safety and the priority of the infrastructure investments on that system don't change because of this. And thankfully the commodity price is so low, so we can continue to keep our bills affordable both on the electric and the gas. And net-net, we're starting to really pay attention to the percent of household wallet that our bills play and they're in the 3% to 3.5% combined gas and electric. And we feel like that's extremely affordable. And so that's always been the focus in our cases and it will continue to be, but we feel good given the combination of the commodity price plus the value that the infrastructure investments has for customers.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Andrew, you also asked about just process and timing. And the only thing I would add to that end is that the commission has -- like a lot of organizations and businesses and Michigan has transitioned quite nicely to mass teleworking and they have not missed a beat to date. And so, we've had very close communications with them. They have managed to keep up their adjudicated processes. And we also highlighted that they had a meeting on the 15th where they gave us that very constructive order on the COVID-19 related costs. So, they are on track, but it's also worth noting that per the statute, there was a 10-month stipulated period. And so in the event there are delays. We do have the legal right to self implement at that 10-month period, which for gas is around mid March and for electric it's in very late December.

Andrew Weisel

Analyst

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And just to clarify though on affordability, I think that was a great recap of your side of it. My question was more from interveners or regulators themselves or staff, has there been any kind of heightened concern about it, given what's going on in the economy?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

I think their concerns are consistent with concerns in the past that we will be concerned and they are too. And so we're pretty well aligned in that attention and focus.

Andrew Weisel

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Andrew, one more thing, just to circle back, apologies, but the gas -- the timing of that is mid October, I mentioned mid-March. Mid October, excuse me.

Operator

Operator

Okay. And our next question will come from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Travis Miller

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning, Travis.

Travis Miller

Analyst

Okay. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the renewable side. How much were you expecting in terms of project completion or contracts to sign this year? And what are your thoughts? What are you seeing in terms of being able to get to those numbers plus or minus your expectations for the year?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah, our big projects this year are a couple of wind projects that are scheduled to close by year-end. And both of those are on track. We have been issued force majeure letters, but that doesn't mean that work stops. It's just sort of a forewarning that there may be a shortage in access to equipment, whether it's turbines or some other equipment. So we have been notified, but to date the projects have not been delayed. And so we are on track. We've continued construction through this time period. And so, as of now everything is on track.

Travis Miller

Analyst

Okay. What about contracts signed or are the other projects, third party projects, they're saying, are they going along also?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah. Everything's on track for this calendar year. Yeah.

Travis Miller

Analyst

Okay. And then real quick on the dividends, obviously the board decided the dividends well before we knew the seriousness of the COVID situation. Any chance, any metrics that they might be looking at here in the next couple quarters in terms of making a dividend change given the raise last quarter?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah, I would suggest that there's no plan changed or dividend policy or strategy. Things would have to change very dramatically for there to be a change in that light. So, we have a board meeting next week. We'll be reviewing with them. Certainly our -- or later this week rather, we've got a board meeting, and so we'll obviously be talking with them about a range of scenarios, but none of those scenarios at this time contemplate any change to the dividend policy.

Travis Miller

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Durgesh Chopra of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Durgesh Chopra

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thanks for sneaking me here. And I appreciate the granularity in this slides is always. Just wanted to stay with a quick clarification. I think I am understanding this correctly, but in response to Steve's question, you mentioned 10% decline. Is that across all classes? So the sensitivity of $0.03 to $0.04 EPS hit per month has based on the commercial industrial 20%, 25%. That's what you're seeing is March, but the 10% is across all classes. Is that right?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Correct.

Durgesh Chopra

Analyst

Okay. Perfect. Thank you. And then just a quick follow-up, you mentioned you previously have been able to offset double-digit EPS headwinds through some of the cost mitigation efforts. Could you point to something in terms of what can you do? Are those things one-time in nature or could you take costs out of the business longer term? Any examples or any color would be helpful?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Well, Durgesh, thank you for asking. I've been waiting to share my story of the month. I'm just going to assume that's what you're asking me for. So, here we go. Even in these times. So in fact, I think this one might be the story of this era. We've discovered that we can work remotely. So, let me just give you some numbers. So, in an annual period, we typically spend about $10 million a year reimbursing mileage. We have a large geographic service area and people have felt compelled to be in person for meetings and events. Frankly, I'm the one who makes them. I like to see people, I like to be with people. So I say, hey, come on out, be in person. But based on this circumstance in the COVID-19, we've been forced to learn to use technology and it's working actually. And it's sort of a triple bottom line story of the month, because first of all, people are safer certainly at this time because of COVID, but also minimizing mileage and driving, reduces the risk of a vehicle accident. The plan is better off with less vehicle emissions and our profits are better because the costs are lower. So, we can do video calls. They work. I used to avoid the face to face video calls. We just do the dial in and they're not the same. And we've learned and frankly I think there's a business to be had for the Judy Jetson masks. And if you're too young to know what I'm talking about, just YouTube Judy Jetson mask. There's an opportunity because sometimes we don't want to see our messy hair and without the salons being open, everyone's hair's looking pretty messy and the dog's barking. But the truth be told. We set this big ambition that we come together by staying apart and we're finding our culture is getting activated. People actually are coming closer. It's very interesting time. But on the fundamental cost, $10 million in mileage, you can bet we're going to be reimbursing less than that. There's other things that we do on the waste elimination. We've got a host, as I said 1,254 projects. Some of it is shortening our -- what's called non-premise time. When a crew goes to a service center, shows up to pick up materials and then reports to the jobsite, there can be an hour there that is considered non-premise time. That's expense. Their capital work doesn't commence until they start on the jobsite. So, the fact that we can get people to jobsites more quickly and we're re redesigning our supply chain so the materials can be available on site as opposed to people having to come to service centers is actually another great example of how this current circumstances is creating innovation, but permanent waste elimination that we can deploy in years to come.

Durgesh Chopra

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. Yeah. Definitely did. Thank you so much. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today will come from Ryan Levine of Citi. Please go ahead.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Good morning.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning, Ryan.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Do any of your O&M or CapEx contracts have force majeure contract provisions that are impacted by this pandemic?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Well, as I mentioned, we've had force majeure notices on some of our large renewable projects, but they're not affecting the timing or the outcome of those projects at this time.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

So there was no impact on O&M contracts or any of the other contracts?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

We've not had any notifications of that on our other contracts.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Okay. And then can you provide more color on the potential items included in the cost reduction initiative flex that you highlighted, and what portion are more temporary nature versus long-term?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Yeah, so a hiring freeze is obviously temporary, but things like -- we've started using technology and we were just starting this before the pandemic. That's why I'm so grateful that our CUA has been in place now for several years, because we've been deploying capabilities to our top waste opportunities. So, here's a great example. We've been what's called auto dispatching a storm proof. So, in the past we would wait for, in that -- call it a year ago -- we would have a customer call us, notify that their power was out. We would start to aggregate all that data in a dispatch center and then a person would determine, okay, we have this many outages on this circuit and they would schedule a crew. Well, now, we have automated all of that. We've used our digital capabilities, our IT team and our engineering and operations teams have been working together and agile teams actually all across the company. But this is one example of how they now auto dispatch storm crews. It saves 30 minutes on an outage per customer. And it eliminates the actual work of doing the dispatching, because it's done by a computer. It's more accurate and it's cheaper. So, it's just things like that all across the company. I think it's tempting for management teams to want to have big line items. We're a believer in the CUA and our continuous improvement mindset says little line items all across the company are going to be more sustainable and have grander benefits in the long run to both the experience for customers, as well as our fundamental cost structure.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Thanks. And then last question for me. What are you seeing in terms of working capital fluctuations in light of the 10 -- directionally 10% or decline post COVID-19, any meaningful fluctuations that impact your financing plan?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Rejji, do you want to talk through the financing plan a little bit?

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Yeah, happy to. Yeah. So the quick answer is, working capital actually has been fairly smooth or I'll just say aligning with plan. As mentioned we have no CP outstanding and generally that would be, I'll say, a supplemental source of financing if we saw unpredictable working capital swings. But we obviously have been able to manage the working capital volatility to date, and there hasn't been much of that. And so we have not seen at this point any really material changes in working capital. But as Patti highlighted earlier, there's a bit of a lag when it comes to receivables aging. And so we'll continue to keep an eye on that. We obviously are very flush up from a cash perspective as evidenced by our proactive financings that we did at the end of the quarter. So, a little over $700 million in cash in that plus our evolving facility capacity gets us about $2.3 billion net liquidity position. So, we certainly feel like we have enough dry powder to manage any future volatility. But I haven't seen a whole lot to date to be honest.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Thank you.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Thanks.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thanks, Ryan.

Operator

Operator

And our next question today will come from David Fishman of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

David Fishman

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning, David.

David Fishman

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. Just wanting to go back to the C&I demand numbers again. I think I remember that there was a large customer kind of pre-COVID that's sort of already was a bit of a drag on your kind of your year-on-year comparables. Am I remembering that correctly? And kind of how much of that 20% to 25% that customer represent those already known?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

That is correct. We have one large customer who had some contracts bought out at the end -- actually part way through last year. And so, they're reflected in last year sales and this year sales. And they're operating now, so they are actually essential, which is good. But they are at diminished load, so they are a portion of that 20% to 25%.

David Fishman

Analyst

Okay. But some of that then would already have been planned for when you were thinking about the 2020 guidance?

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

That's true. We factor that into our plans for this year.

David Fishman

Analyst

Okay. And then, not to like to beat a dead horse here. But just on the flex range, when we think about the $0.10 to $0.15 that you guys have talked about historically speaking, now I know there's a lot of unknowns going forward with 2020. But when you kind of achieve those levels those were more or less to kind of meet your earnings targets specifically. Like you had a certain amount of negative in that year and then you flex to meet that. And that's kind of what you're illustrating for us here today?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

That's right. That's right. And it's, and it's been true on the other side as well, that when we've had favorability, we've pulled in costs and I'm prepared for the next year. And so the thing that I don't want loss on anyone, it's that we are always preparing, not just for this quarter or this year, but for years to come. And that's what has made us so reliable at delivering and doing exactly what we said we're going to do. And so that flex has upside and downside. That's why slide 6 shows that -- that range of up and down and obviously this is a down year and we are doing everything we can to leverage our skills and capability of adapting in that range.

David Fishman

Analyst

Okay. Thank you Patti. Those are my questions. So, everyone's family is safe and healthy.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thank you, David. You too.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead.

Paul Patterson

Analyst

Very good morning.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Good morning, Paul.

Paul Patterson

Analyst

Thanks. First of all, congratulations on the Supreme court victory. If that, - I assuming that that's it for the state, but is there any other appeal or anything going on at the federal level or where we finally finished with this - this proceeding?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

There's one other aspect of the local clearing requirement that is still being determined and it's a very procedural element, but fundamentally reauthorize -- reconfirming that the public service commission has the authority to establish a local clearing requirement, was a very important outcome. They have returned then the proceedings, the procedures back to the MPSC for implementation. So there's -- it still needs to be implemented, I guess I should say, but it -- the order was very important in the ruling by the Supreme court was very important.

Paul Patterson

Analyst

Yeah. Okay. Great. And then with respect to the bill payment trends that people have been asking about, I'm sorry if I missed this, but in terms of not -- let's say technically what's uncollectible or bad debt or anything like that, but just in general at -- do you have any - if you, if you gave it, I apologize for missing it. But so just -- what the cadence has been in terms of people paying, let's say for April? Like for instance we're hearing, I saw one statistic that one-third of people didn’t, this is nationwide, they didn't pay their rent for April that they were sort of late paying their April rent the first few weeks. Do you have any numbers sort of like that for what you're sort of experiencing there on the ground?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Not yet, but we do know, we do have call volume from business and residential customers asking for a -- what we would call grace and extension of payment plans. And so, we are doing that. As we talk to these businesses, they typically have three big concerns. One is, rent as you described. Two is payroll. Three, is utilities. And so, we've been able to be a source of support to them and we feel comfortable extending those payment plans but that doesn't necessarily then translate into an uncollectable, particularly for our business customers and so -- and we've got some really good community action agencies and support resources for residential customers that can help them make their payments on time in the short run as well. So, I would suggest that our forecast isn't good yet. There's more to come and more to learn and certainly by Q2, we'll have a much better eye on, being able to quantify that.

Paul Patterson

Analyst

Okay. And then just finally on enterprises, the $0.04 benefit, and I apologize again if I just missed this, but what drove that?

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Rejji, you want to talk through the enterprise quarter?

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Yeah, because -- so Paul, it was a combination of two things. So one, it was just the absence of an outage and Q1, so Filer City, did an outage last year. And so there was the absence of that and then just good cost performance at enterprises. And so that's really what drove the $0.04 positive variance.

Paul Patterson

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks so much. Hang in there.

Rejji Hayes

Analyst

Thank you. Gentlemen, this will conclude our question and answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back over to Patti Poppe for any closing remark.

Patti Poppe

Analyst

Thank you, Allison. And again, thank you everyone for joining us today on our call. Please continue to stay safe and be well and you know, we really look forward to seeing you face to face when we can. We miss you all. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect your lines.