Earnings Labs

CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 23, 2014

$75.62

-0.57%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to the CMS Energy 2014 Third Quarter Results and Outlook Call. This call is being recorded. Just a reminder, there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call today, beginning at 12.30 PM Eastern Time, running through October 30. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's Web-site in the Investor Relations section. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Glenn Barba, Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. Please go ahead.

Glenn P. Barba

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. With me are John Russell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Webb, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings news release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on our Web-site. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. All forward-looking statements should be considered in the context of the risk and other factors detailed in our SEC filings. These factors could cause CMS Energy's and Consumers' results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP information. A reconciliation of each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in the appendix and posted to the Investor section of our Web-site. Now, I will turn the call over to John.

John G. Russell

Management

Thanks, Glenn, and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us on our third quarter earnings call. I'll begin the presentation with an overview of the quarter before I turn the call over to Tom to discuss the financial results and the outlook for the remainder of the year. Then as usual we'll close with Q&A. The first nine months have produced good financial and operational results. Our 2014 full year guidance remains on track at $1.76 to $1.78, which is at the high end of our original range. Operationally, our efforts are being acknowledged by nationally recognised surveys. J. D. Power and Associates ranks our gas utility the second highest in residential customer satisfaction in the Midwest. The gas utility's improvement from the prior year's study makes it the most improved utility in the nation. Sustainalytics, which looks at a number of sustainable factors, ranked Consumers Energy number one among peers. These recognitions are evidence that our Company is getting better every day. Looking back over the last few years, we have consistently grown 7% each year. This is our 12th year of predictable financial performance. Each year we grow earnings of the prior year's results. Today, we are pleased to provide 2015 guidance of $1.85 to $1.89, consistent with our 5% to 7% growth rate. We are confident in next year's plan and our ability to execute it. We have many upside opportunities that will keep us on track to achieve our long-term organic growth. Election Day is less than two weeks away. We have been watching the local and national races closely. The race for Michigan's Governor has remained as we have envisioned, focused on a number of non-energy issues. The challenger, Mark Schauer, is supportive of an increase in the renewable energy standard, as is Governor Snyder.…

Thomas J. Webb

Management

Thanks, John, and as always we deeply appreciate your interest in our Company and for spending some time with us on our call today, thank you. As John mentioned, our third quarter results of $0.37 a share reflect continued solid progress. For the first nine months, adjusted earnings at $1.42 a share were up $0.13 or 10% from the same period a year ago. And this excludes an increase of $0.03 a share in our long-term reserve for Bay Harbor environmental maintenance. Having completed the remediation, we are truing up the established reserve back in 2004 to maintain for water treatment facilities over the next couple of decades. As you can see here on the shaded circle, we put to work more of the substantial upside from the first quarter with reinvestments in even more productivity and reliability. As shown with the yellow arrow, we have plans to do even more O&M reinvestment during the rest of year, and this is without jeopardizing our ability to deliver earnings growth at the high end of our original guidance which is in the 6% to 7% zone. And as you can see in the dotted circle, our planned cost savings in the fourth quarter more than fund planned capital investment. This reflects the important work we've completed to self fund all of our capital investment in 2014. So in other words, we permanently funded with continuing O&M cost reductions 100% of our 1.6 billion of capital investment in 2014. We are proud of our team that not only has continued our eight-year run of continuous cost reductions, but accelerated them to a level that fully funded a record level of capital investment, and that's without any increase in rates to our customers. This slide, which I suspect is familiar to many of…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dan Eggers at Credit Suisse. Please proceed.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst

John, I guess as we're moving into the winter season, you covered a lot of topics on the call, but can you just talk about where you guys see the system operationally going in the winter given some of the challenges we saw last year and kind of your comfort on the MISO regions for us, reliability concern with fuel, and all those sorts of issues?

John G. Russell

Management

Dan, you're talking about the electric side?

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Probably both sides actually.

John G. Russell

Management

Okay, I guess we're well-positioned. I mean the storage is full which is great after a very cold winter the beginning of this year, so the team has done a nice job replenishing the field. So I'm comfortable on the gas side. On the electric side, we're good as far as capacity for this year. The real issue in MISO and particularly in Zone 7 becomes 2016. That's when you begin to see the falloff of the retired plants, there will be capacity needs there. The debate going on today is, MISO is looking at their forecast thinking Zone 7 could be anywhere from 2,000 megawatts to 3,000 megawatts short. So from our standpoint, that's something that we're looking at. We've got plans in place so that we need to add capacity, we can, and like everybody is familiar with the plant that we were going to build, the gas plant that we decided not to and instead bought the JP Morgan plant for a much lower cost, everything is in place to move ahead with that one, expansion of the existing plants could take place. So there's lot of opportunities we have here. The big thing is we just need to see where this kind of shakes out with if MISO's predictions are right and what happens with the energy law. As Tom mentioned, there are some – if the markets begin to tighten, which I expect they will, what you may see is a return from customers who were taking their supply from third-party suppliers today return to us, and at that point that's an opportunity for us to execute some of the plans we have to build the capacity to serve their needs. So that's kind of in summary what the next two years look like, but we're in good shape for next year, the following year is the one that I think a lot more [will tell what happens] (ph).

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst

I guess, John, on that point, if you look at Slide 16 where you guys continue to show the prospective need for a lot of capacity to service customers coming with open access coming back and PPAs went away, when do you guys get comfortable enough to put that into your CapEx program and what milestones should we be looking at for you guys to get there?

John G. Russell

Management

One of the things, Dan, that we're doing, our plan is not to build above the growth. So at the end of the day what we do is we look at our forecasts for five years out, 10 years out, but our planning and our construction will really follow where the load goes. So what we will do is, in the short term probably buy from the market and in the long-term build, and that may be different from most regulated utilities that build large incremental projects that go above the growth rate and then wait for several years for the growth to catch up to that. With the hybrid market that we have today, that is a disadvantage to us because if we do that we simply put what seems like free capacity on the market for the third-party suppliers to take advantage of. So ours is to build to that level of capacity, and the good news is, since most of our growth in the future will be renewable energy or growth as far as a fuel source for generation, it will be renewable energy or gas, you have a lot more flexibility in building to that level and not building above it as we did in the old days with coal and nukes.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst

But I guess, John, should we assume that if choice goes away in early '15 with new legislation, would that advance at least the need to address the 800 megawatts of potential load coming back with the change in CapEx plans?

John G. Russell

Management

Absolutely, absolutely, when they come back we're going to have the power for them.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Okay. And then I guess one last question just on the renewable front here with potential expansion of the renewable energy target, how do you guys see the mix of kind of wind and solar in the next cycle given the fact it was a pretty wind heavy first kind of renewal investment?

John G. Russell

Management

I mean I expect that to continue, Dan. The one thing that Michigan has proven with the way the team's built the plants here, the wind regime in Michigan is clearly the most cost advantageous renewable energy source in Michigan. Solar, although it's getting a lot of play in a lot of other areas, it really hasn't taken hold here. Part of it is our conditions here, the lack of huge incentives like you see in some other places throughout the country. And really if you want renewable energy here, wind resources are the way to go. So that's definitely the plan of the future here. Although I think distributed generation to some extent will take off. I think you'll probably see us doing some pilots in certain areas, because if customers want that we want to provide it for them but there isn't the great demand like we see or the economic benefit like we have for the large wind scale projects.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Very good. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Paul Ridzon at KeyBanc. Please proceed.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

I know that that is all permitted, but do those permits sunset at any point?

John G. Russell

Management

Yes, they do, Paul. We've got about another I think a year and a half, something like that, 18 months as it is today. So if we move forward with it today in a combined cycle, we could do it, otherwise we'd have to re-permit it. But as we've talked about before, everything is in place. The sites there, we own it, we have generation on-site, electric facilities there are good, the gas facilities are good, and as we talked earlier in Dan's question if there was a need to drive and build that plant soon, I expect that the permitting process would go along very quickly.

Thomas J. Webb

Management

And just remember the policymakers really will be driving for it, not against it.

John G. Russell

Management

Right.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Great. And how long would that take to re-permit you think?

John G. Russell

Management

Less than a year, could be nine months.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

And then construction is what, pro month 18 months?

John G. Russell

Management

Yes, start to finish probably say three years between permitting and final construction. So nine of that would probably be, 9 to 12 permitting but we'd be doing the engineering during that time, and then 24 months for construction.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

And how should we think about balancing rates with CapEx if a plant is needed, would you defer some of the other capital to keep the 15.5 intact?

John G. Russell

Management

No. Great question. We talked about this I think on some of the other calls, is that if the return, if the ROA customers return, that's about $150 million more in revenue to us and it's about a 4% discount for all of our customers across the board if they return. So we would probably, one way to think about is, eat into that 4% reduction to a small percent but all of our customers would benefit from that plant being built, not only in having the reliability in Zone 7 but also the fact the rates would go down not up.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

And lastly just an update on what's happening in the UP and the discussion around that.

John G. Russell

Management

Yes, what do you want me to say?

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

I guess it's still a mess, right?

John G. Russell

Management

Yes, I mean again let's just for everybody on the call, we're not involved in the Upper Peninsula in Michigan, we don't serve there. But I think what it does, Paul, is demonstrate to a lot of people in Michigan the unintended consequences of what I would call full deregulation. I mean even though it's not but basically 80% of the load shifted from WAC to Integras and right now at least for everybody listening it looks like the impact to 50% of the customers in the [inaudible] increase in rates on December 1, and that is not what we should be in as far as a business. So, yes, I think it's going to change, it changed people's outlook about deregulation.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Brian Russo from Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

I think you mentioned earlier that the $15.5 billion of CapEx can increase to $16 billion to $17 billion. Is that encompassing the potential for only CCGT if ROA is eliminated, and would that impact your EPS CAGR?

Thomas J. Webb

Management

First of all, the first part of that question is, yes, it assumes – a lot of the capacity that we're talking about is not in the $15.5 billion. So as John just described, we'd have to pick up some of that. Remember, this addition, what we're doing here with the purchase of a plant is one of the cheapest adds of capacity that you'll see, and then building a Thetford is going to be a very efficient approach to what we would do as well. So the answer to point one is, it would increase our cost a bit, so we've left those out. And then question two, I kind of leave it to you to think about what the answer is in regards to what we would do with our earnings guidance, because we look for every opportunity we could. You would naturally think that, let's raise the 5% to 7% to a higher number. We'll stick to the 5% to 7% and look for ways to put that benefit to work for our customers if we can, so we still deliver for them and for you.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Okay, great. My other questions were asked and answered. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

At this point, there are no further questions. So there are no further questions.

John G. Russell

Management

Oh, great, alright, good. Well, first of all, thank you for joining us today on the call. First nine months were good months, they were good position for us, we're in a good position to meet our guidelines. Obviously we appreciate your continued interest in the Company and we look forward to seeing many of you at EEI over the next week or so. So with that, we'll close up the call. Thank you.