Carl Anderson
Analyst · KeyBanc. Your line is now open
Thanks Jay and good morning. On today's call I'll review our first quarter financial results and updated full-year guidance. Overall, as you heard from Jay, we delivered a solid start to 2020. We achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.9% and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.64, reflecting our ability to manage the business effectively across current end market conditions. Additionally, we remain committed to our capital allocation strategy and in the first four months of the fiscal year, we have repurchased over 10% of outstanding shares. This reflects our continued confidence in achieving and delivering on our M2022 targets. Let's walk through the details by turning to Slide 8 where you'll see our first quarter financial results compared to the prior year. Sales were $901 million in the quarter down $137 million from a year ago driven primarily by lower global truck production and lower volumes across your other businesses. This was partially offset by revenue from AxleTech, which we acquired in the fourth quarter of 2019. As anticipated we saw a significant decrease in North America Class 8 production in the first quarter. Compared to the same period last year, production was down almost 17,000 units or about 20%. Additionally in Europe, production was down approximately 18,000 units or 14% compared to the first quarter of 2019 and in India, production volumes which were down almost 40% continued to be impacted by the emission standard changeover that will occur on April 1, which requires all vehicles sold after this date to comply with the new standards. This is resulting in an industry-wide focus of reducing inventory levels prior to the changeover. Additionally, we are seeing tighter credit conditions which is also contributing to the market challenges and finally revenue from AxleTech helped to offset slowing market conditions in our North America aftermarket specialty and trailer businesses. Looking at the right side of the page, we did a good job of managing cost to limit total downside earning conversion to 15% on the lower revenue. Lower volume decreased sales by $127 million or 12% from last year. On this revenue decline, adjusted EBITDA decreased $17 million or 14%. Our ability to manage cost on lower revenue was highlighted this quarter as we were able to drive lower material, labor and operating [ph] expense which resulted in very solid downside conversion performance. In addition foreign exchange was a slight headwind on sales as the US dollar had strengthen year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was unfavorably impacted by $4 million compared to the prior year. Overall, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $98 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.9%. Looking at the left-hand side of the chart, gross margin came in at 14.1% this quarter an increase of 50 basis points from a year ago. This improvement was mainly driven by lower overall material costs including reduced layered capacity cost. You also recall, we announced a restructuring plan at the end of fiscal year last September. The plan was implemented in anticipation of the slowing market conditions we are now experiencing. As a result we did recognize $5 million related to the restructuring in the first quarter. As we move down the table on the left, you'll see that we're reporting $39 million of GAAP net income from continuing operations. In addition to lower sales compared to last year in fiscal 2019 we recognized a $31 million gain from the remeasurement of the Maremont asbestos liability, which did not repeat. Adjusted income from continuing operations was $52 million resulting in $0.64 per adjusted diluted share. And finally free cash was negative $35 million this quarter compared to negative $12 million in the same period last year. As you may recall, we typically use cash in the first quarter due to fewer selling days as a result of the holiday season which generally drives lower revenues and incentive compensation payments for achieve performance in 2019. Let's move to Slide 9, which details our first quarter sales and adjusted EBITDA for our reporting segments. In our commercial truck segment, sales decreased by 20% to $622 million. The decrease in revenue was primarily driven by lower truck production across most regions in the segment. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $56 million, down $21 million from last year. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin for commercial truck came in at 9% down from 9.9% in the prior year. The decrease in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin was driven primarily by lower volumes, partially offset by lower freight and material cost, including reduced net steel and layer capacity cost. Lower labor and burden cost also contributed to managing to 13% downside conversion on the lower revenue in the segment. In our aftermarket industrial and trailer segment, sales were $370 million up $14 million or 5% from last year. The increase in sales was primarily driven by revenue from AxleTech, partially offset by decreased volumes across the segment. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $40 million which was flat compared to last year. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 60 basis points to 12.6%. The decrease was driven primarily by the impact from AxleTech as the expected benefit from synergies continues to ramp up to full run rate. Next I'll review our updated fiscal year 2020 global market outlook on Slide 10. We are revising production levels for India to between 265,000 to 285,000 units down over 15% from our prior outlook. Based on the market uncertainty we're seeing in this region, it is likely that the production levels after April 1 may not fully compensate for the lower production levels we are seeing now. In Europe, we're lowering our production outlook by 5,000 reflecting slightly lower truck demand and finally we are revising our outlook for the US trailer market to approximately 230,000 units to 240,000 units as we are now forecasting the trailer market to decrease more in line with Class 8 truck production. On the next slide, we provide a summary of our 2020 guidance based on these updated market assumptions. We now expect revenue to be approximately $3.7 million which is at the lower end of our previously provided guidance. We're also revising our outlook for adjusted EBITDA margin to 11%. We expect to manage our downside revenue conversion at the low-end of our expected range through our laser focus on managing cost. As a result of the slightly lower expectations, we now expect adjusted diluted earnings per share to be approximately $2.75 which is consistent with the low-end of our previous guidance. And finally, we now expect to generate free cash flow of $165 million this year. While we cannot control the global markets, we are pleased with our team's ability to quickly adjust to market changes and delivered solid financial results as we begin our M2022 plan. Now we'll take your questions.