Terry Duffy
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead
So, this is purely a speculation question at best, as you can imagine, Brian, because I've been around long enough to watch the 2011 debt negotiation literally go down to the last hour before the clock ran out on government spending. And there was a negotiation between then speaker and then President Barack Obama. So, you never know what's going to happen. I can only tell you a few things. And one of the things I'm saying to my folks here in the organization is when you look at the setup today in Congress, one of the things I look at as far as where this may or may not go, you can only see so much, right? So, the speaker is going to propose a piece of legislation that's got massive cuts associated with it over the next 10 years. The President is not going to like that, and in return, the Speaker is offering up $1.5 trillion in lifting to the debt ceiling. That's going to be the legislation. That may pass the House, but if they lose five votes, then it doesn't pass the House. So, pretty interesting dynamic right now. That probably won't go anywhere in the Senate or it probably won't go anywhere with the administration. So, then we go on to the next round of negotiations. So, let's think a little bit about how the negotiations at work in Washington right now. As you recall, if anybody is a student of politics, you saw that there's 15 rounds of votes going for the Speaker of the House. And in those 15 rounds, there was a handful of people that were trying to extract certain things for their benefit, maybe holding the Speaker's feet to the fire on certain things. I was not part of it, but you can only assume what was going on because the votes finally got to a place, which means there was a negotiation going on. So, I'm assuming that negotiation will continue on, but the difference this time is you're dealing with a much different Congress with Republicans holding the majority, obviously, in the House side and then looking to extract a lot of cuts. Whether you agree with it or not, it's not for me to make that decision. I'm just telling you what I see. So, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't get something passed out of the gate. And -- but then we'll have to see where it goes. Historically, people never want to go back to their districts and be the person who did not vote for a debt ceiling lift, which could hurt the US economy or hurt the US --. We had a downgrade in this country before. I'm not saying it's happening again, but there are people that -- they have firm beliefs that you have to look at the long picture, and the government spending is out of control. These are not my words, these are theirs. So, I just want to make sure I say that. So, I think it's going to be a little bit more tricky than historical debt ceiling that we've seen. And as far as the Fed cycle goes, I'll let Sean comment on that, what it means to it, and then maybe Sunil can comment about the treasuries, what it means, if anything, to us.