John Pietrowicz
Analyst · Dan Fannon from Jefferies
Yes. Thanks, Dan. Thanks for the question. Yes, the fourth quarter of this year -- fourth quarter of all years, generally speaking, in the fourth quarter of this year, is traditionally the heaviest quarter in terms of expenses, and we expected that to occur this year. There are a number of planned customer events and marketing spend in the fourth quarter, and we expect increased in-person sales activity reflecting the improved business environment. So if you look at last year and adjust for OSTTRA, you saw about a 10% increase in expenses from Q3 to Q4. This year, it's a little bit heavier between Q3 and Q4. This would imply about a 15% increase. And if you look at the expense spend between Q3 and Q4 last year, we did not have the improving business environment that we see this year. So we are expecting definitely more increased in-person sales activity, marketing spend and travel. So that accounts for some of the increase that we're seeing this year. The remainder -- so when you take a look at -- sorry, when you take a look at Q3 to Q4, we expect approximately 70% of the increase to be in the marketing, travel and in-person events. The remainder of the sequential increase would be related to salary and wages, reflecting variable compensation related to our company's performance and staffing of key roles and customer-facing resources. So last year, again, the variable compensation is higher this year than last year and also the number of employees are higher this year than last year. We're expecting to hire more going into the fourth quarter. We also expect to see increased professional services as we are investing in growth projects. So that kind of accounts for Q4 growth compared to Q3 and a bit about the difference between last year and this year. You are right, as we are early in the process of looking at our budget for next year, and as you know, and as the entire team knows the entire group here at CME has done a very effective job over the years of managing our costs, and we tend to do the same towards this incoming year. It's a bit too early to give guidance. And as I said, we are still in the budget building process, and that has to be approved by the Board. So we are definitely keeping our eyes on inflationary impacts, and we're looking to mitigate those impacts through process efficiencies, leveraging lower cost locations, partnering with vendors and being judicious in hiring. So I think the way to think about 2023 is to think about how we've been managing costs over the last several years. We've done a very effective job ensuring that we're spending very efficiently. And we'll continue to leverage that approach going into next year. So that's some of the kind of the core business. In terms of the Google spend and in terms of our migration. We're working through the plan for next year now. We are, as I mentioned, the last, I guess, a couple of earnings calls ago, we're expecting on average to be approximately $30 million in incremental spend over the next 4 years as we approach the point where costs will be lower, assuming similar volume levels. And I think we're planning on kind of a similar type spend as this year, but that will be a function of how fast we're going to be migrating the applications on to the Google platform. So we're pretty -- we're pleased with where we're at in terms of our Google progress. It's about where we expected it would be. And as I said in my prepared remarks, the initial foundation that we needed to create in order to start rolling those apps is nearing completion. So we'll be looking to see the apps migrate at a quicker rate going into 2023. So that's the kind of the expense view this so far this year.