Earnings Labs

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 3, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Comcast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Senior Vice President Investor Relations, Mr. Jason Armstrong. Please go ahead, Mr. Armstrong.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Operator, and welcome everyone. Joining me on this morning's call are Brian Roberts, Mike Cavanagh, Steve Burke and Neil Smit. Brian and Mike will make formal remarks and Steve and Neil will also be available for Q&A. As always, let me now refer you to slide number two which contains our Safe Harbor disclaimer and remind you that this conference call may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties. In addition, in this call we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our 8-K for the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP. With that, let me turn the call to Brian Roberts for his comments. Brian? Brian L. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Jason and good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today. 2015 was a terrific year for Comcast NBCUniversal, and I couldn't be more pleased with the strong operational performance and financial results that we delivered both for the fourth quarter and for the full year. Honestly, 2015 was not without its challenges. But instead of letting those challenges become real distractions, our company pivoted and executed extremely well, particularly in the second half of the year. I'm so proud of our resilience and leadership team for creating the momentum that is now driving us forward in 2016. Neil Smit and Dave Watson and everyone at Comcast Cable is heroic in my mind, for not only staying focused, but generating the best yearly video subscriber results that we've had in nine years and the best broadband subscriber results that we've had in eight years. We ended on a high note as our fourth quarter video net additions were our strongest quarterly results since the first quarter of 2007. At the same time, we expertly balanced…

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Mike. Brent, let's open up the call for questions please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Craig Eder Moffett - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst · MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning, and thanks. So Mike, one quick clarification first, and then a question for Neil. Mike, you just said a moment ago that your share repurchases wouldn't be conditional on participation in the auction. If you participate in the auction but don't find the prices attractive enough, and end up not buying in the auction, would that suggest that you might actually increase your share repurchases? And then for Neil, you just announced yesterday your first markets for DOCSIS 3.1. I was wondering if you could give us any color on whether you plan to offer that as a standard product or as a premium product going forward, and if you've got anything that you can talk about with respect to how you might price it for consumers? Michael J. Cavanagh - Chief Financial Officer & Senior EVP: Okay, hey Craig, thanks. It's Mike. So, you hit it right on the auction. We just said that we're going to take a paddle on the auction, which means we're going to evaluate, consider and may purchase, but only if we think the price is right after we do our evaluation of what's available. As far as what we do in the buyback, if we don't buy, we'll just wait to see how – that'll be deep in the year and we'll, if there's a change of view on what we think our capacity is, at that stage we'll come back and update you then. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Craig, this is Neil. Concerning DOCSIS 3.1, as you know, we announced five cities yesterday, and we haven't priced the rollout yet. But we – the great thing about DOCSIS 3.1, it's a very efficient way to deliver gigabit speeds, and we'll be rolling it out on a widespread basis over the course of the next few years.

Craig Eder Moffett - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst · MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks, Neil.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Craig. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Jessica Jean Reif Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Oh, thank you. I guess a couple things. First on the FCC initiative, the set-top box initiative, can you give us your views? I mean, given the importance of the set-top box, not just to rental fees, but also data analytics, how do you see this kind of progressing? Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Well, I think it's premature to comment on this, since a proposal has not even been seen yet. We believe that, generally speaking, in a dynamic environment that's rapidly changing, technology mandates just don't work very well. But we'll continue to look – we look forward to seeing the proposal, and we'll work with the Chairman and his office to come up with what's best for the customers and the consumers.

Jessica Jean Reif Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead

And then on the video bundle, your great video numbers and broadband, but the video numbers tell a really different story than what we've seen in the market, post media meltdown, since August. Can you give us your view, from both sides of the company, on how you see the video bundle evolving over the next three years to five years? Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Well, we feel very good about the video numbers. They're the best in nine years, the best quarter in nine years. I think part of it's X1, which is a real game changer. 60% of our subs got X1, and the net new adds and new connects. We have a great TV Everywhere proposal, where 34% of our customers are using some form of TV Everywhere. And the viewing hours on dot-com and mobile combined are up about 20%, so they're watching more. I think we're segmenting the market better, getting the best customers, and getting them to stay longer. And we're improving the customer experience, we're developing new channel stores, MDUs, the on-campus product, we're segmenting better, so we feel good about the video numbers and the progress.

Jessica Jean Reif Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead

And then I got... Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Well,...

Jessica Jean Reif Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Sorry. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: I think churn is the one thing that I would add to that. And all that adds up, with each of the products having a decrease in churn. I don't know, Steve, on the NBCUniversal side, we... Stephen B. Burke - Chief Executive Officer, NBCUniversal & Senior Executive Vice President: I think if you have great channels with great products, like the Olympics or the NFL or Mr. Robot on USA, your channels are going to stay in the bundle, and it's going to continue to be a very good business for a very long time.

Jessica Jean Reif Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Can I just follow up on what NBC – the land acquisition? I mean, given the IRRs on theme parks, which are really impressive, can you talk about kind of the usage of the land, and timing? Stephen B. Burke - Chief Executive Officer, NBCUniversal & Senior Executive Vice President: Well I think it's a little early for that. We just closed on the deal this quarter. We got 475 acres, so we have a lot of land to work with. And we have some ideas, but we don't have firm plans at this point.

Jessica Jean Reif Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Thank you. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: One of the great things about Universal theme parks, and we've seen this now in different geographies, there's a long lead time, a lot of smart planning, understanding what attractions work. But it all starts by having the ability to do that. And so this plan we think is really a wonderful, strategic acquisition and it's long term down the road, I think.

Jessica Jean Reif Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Jessica Reif Cohen with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Jessica. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Benjamin Daniel Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks. I have a question back on wireless, and then some maybe housekeeping for Mike. Brian, I don't know if you'd comment, but you're obviously planning to at least participate in the auction. You have a large Wi-Fi footprint out there, you have the MVNO. Can you talk a little bit about where your head is at on wireless broadly? Where is all this headed? Have you figured that out yet? Or is it still very much a dynamic situation? And Mike, I don't know if you'd help us as we think about that free cash flow number. You said $9 billion for 2015, and we think about that for 2016. I don't know if you want to help us on things like cash taxes, working cap, and maybe the intangibles which are numbers that factor in to how we think about next year or I guess this year? Thank you both. Brian L. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You know, I think you've put your finger on it. We have a lot of assets in the company, and Neil, feel free to join on this answer. But really, all we are doing today is saying, as Mike called it take a paddle at an auction to see if there's an opportunity for the company to be rewarded in that auction with something that we think has strategic value. And in the past, that has proved to be not only a moneymaker but given us more strategic flexibility, and we want to know if that's the case this time. Beyond that I don't think it's any more than that, and it's a free…

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Ben. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Hodulik with UBS. Please go ahead.

John Christopher Hodulik - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · John Hodulik with UBS. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks. A couple of quick questions on the video side, maybe for Neil. First of all, it looks like Neil you lost about 35,000 subs, a lot of improvement over last year, at the same time a lot of the drivers, it sound like we are just starting to see that these things come to fruition, there's a lot more run way to go. I mean, is it reasonable to assume that you're going to grow subs next year first of all. And then second of all, the improvement this quarter came with a nice step up in ARPU as well. So, I don't know, are you finding that given all the value you're adding to the bundle with all the stacking rights and TV Everywhere options, are you finding it easier to get price increases through as people are recognizing the value of the product and it continues to improve? Just trying to get a sense of how we should look at that going forward as well? Thanks. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Hi, John. I think I'd look at it through two lenses. One is we have, what we believe is the best product out there in X1, and that's helping to drive ARPU because you're getting more VOD views, 40% more VOD views, you're getting lower churn, you're getting more DVR, 50% more DVR usage, or subs, and you're getting digital outlets. So all that drives ARPU, that's positive. I think, the other things we're doing in the business and segmenting and driving channel performance and bundling effectively and targeting customers is improving the throughput of the subs. And then we're retaining them for longer, and a lot of that is better customer experience, better targeting, better subs and getting them the right package. We are segmenting with different offers for different customers. On Campus is an example, Internet Plus is an example. Stream is an example of products that we're targeting at a specific segment. So we're giving them the product they want at the right price, and we're retaining, we're servicing them well and retaining them longer.

John Christopher Hodulik - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · John Hodulik with UBS. Please go ahead

Got it. Thanks.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, John. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vijay Jayant with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Vijay Jayant - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Vijay Jayant with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead

Thanks. Also for Neil. Any color you can give us where you are on your trajectory with some of the segmented skinny products, and how much runway do we have there? At least very broadly to your carriage minimums. And second on an IP only product, I know you have a low-end proposition in the market. Some of your peers have talked about rolling that out in the next phase. Is that something you think could be a good strategy going forward? Thanks. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Concerning skinny bundles, they are actually a small percentage of our overall video customer base. And we do feel we have room with the programmers and the penetration rates. In the fourth quarter, 75% of our video ads were the higher end packages. So I don't want to overstate the significance of skinny bundles. The stream product we just rolled out in a few markets in Boston and Chicago. It's probably too early to say what it will be, what it will turn into over time. But we feel good about the usage and good about the product. It's a good value proposition for the customer, and we'll continue to roll it out to other markets.

Vijay Jayant - Evercore ISI

Analyst · Vijay Jayant with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead

Great thank you.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Vijay. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Bazinet with Citi. Please go ahead.

Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Jason Bazinet with Citi. Please go ahead

I have a question for Mr. Roberts. Given your past success in M&A, the lean balance sheet that you have, the more muted, maybe, buyback relative to your cash flow, a lot of investors in meetings that we're in put on the radar screen more transformative M&A in wireless and the Internet space, European cable. Do you think that's a misguided notion? Or is that something that investors should think about in terms of the realm of possibilities for the next year? Brian L. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, thanks for the broad way you asked the question. And I will give you an answer that I think covers a lot of territory. It's always amazing to us sometimes, almost humorous, but none of this is ever humorous. What we read about ourselves in every possible M&A scenario that gets invented. And in many cases it's literally that, just invented. And we're always trying to remain focused on some core principles. First of all, really like the company we have right now. And I think we've said that consistently. And nothing has changed in that view. If anything, I think we feel better about our mix of assets NBCUniversal, doubling the cash flow in the five years since we bought it. I think we bought it right, but we've operated it even better. And so I sit there and look at those scenarios and many others that have been suggested and there's nothing we feel we have to do. At the same time, Mike Cavanagh and the team that he's building are always looking to see if there's ways we can grow shareholder value and look for new opportunities as the markets evolve. But sitting here today, our plan of record in 2016 is to execute on a business plan, stay focused, and I don't feel the need that we need to go and change the face of our company. I think we're in a wonderful, unique position at the cross-section of two industries, and we're leading the way in both.

Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Jason Bazinet with Citi. Please go ahead

Thank you very much.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Jason. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Brett Joseph Feldman - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. Earlier when Mike was talking about programming costs for 2016, he noted that one of the reasons why the rate of programming cost is going up is that you're getting more rights, and you talked about examples of that such as stacking. So two follow-up questions on that. The first is, does your expanded rights package in some of these new agreements allow you more flexibility to put together different channel programs? Meaning you're paying a bit more and maybe you could put together skinnier bundles on a broader basis as a result of that. And then in general, how close are you to getting the expanded rights across all of your programming agreements, with the concept of the question being once you get to the point where you feel comfortable with your stacking rights and your TV Everywhere rights and anything else across most of your agreements, is that a point at which the rate of programming costs growth might be a bit slower than what we're going to see this year? Thanks. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Well, most of the difference between Q4 and what we're projecting for 2015 is timing of when contracts renew or terminate. So, that's point one. We do feel that we get a wide set of rights, including stacking rights, as you mentioned; in and out of home rights, in some cases; digital rights. So we've increased our rights, and it does give us more flexibility in terms of how we package. Each contract is a little bit different. But as you can see from our different offerings, I mentioned Internet Plus, Stream, Watchable, we're innovating in the packaging area to get customers a package that's appropriate to them, and whether it 's streamed or delivered in a linear fashion, we are getting increasing rights and more flexibility. And we work together with the programmers to define the best value. Brett Joseph Feldman - Goldman Sachs & Co.: And then just with regards to the second part, do you feel like you've done a lot of that work, or do you think it's something that's going to be ongoing for a period of time? Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: I think, it's going to be ongoing. The think the video marketplace is very dynamic now, there's a lot of competition, and I think the programmers recognize this, and as do the distributors and we work together to – we trial things all the time and we're working in both the programming packaging space as well as advanced advertising space to deliver more value via more targeted advertising. So it's an ongoing conversation. Brett Joseph Feldman - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Thanks for the color.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Brett. Next question.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony DiClemente with Nomura. Please go ahead.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Anthony DiClemente with Nomura. Please go ahead

Thanks for taking my questions. I have two for Steve. Steve, can you just share with us please the strategic thinking on licensing the five Thursday Night Football games, and how that NFL contract will work its way into the NBCU financials this year? And then secondly, the distribution revenue growth at the Cable Networks was 6.8% in the quarter. Just wondering if you could give us kind of breakdown of that number in terms of what was the affiliate rate increase per sub, and then what's the subscriber volume underneath that number? And is that a sustainable type of growth rate going forward into 2016? Thank you. Stephen B. Burke - Chief Executive Officer, NBCUniversal & Senior Executive Vice President: Let me answer the second question first. We had a slight decline in the number of subscribers that was overmatched by a series of rate increases. It's going to be lumpy quarter-by-quarter and year-by-year on the affiliate side. But, and this is probably on the low end of what you can see the future, but it will be lumpy. On the NFL, the number one show on television is Sunday Night Football, and is a very, very important part of our business. Football is profitable for us now, and it will be profitable for us after the Thursday Night deal. And the ability to have these 24 football games, which will be 24 of the highest rated nights of the year is very, very valuable for a marketer that wants to reach a broad audience. In fact getting more valuable all the time as the world continues to fragment. So we're very happy that we were selected the – NFL has put their faith in our team and our broadcast, and we're delighted about it. It's really the best programming, most powerful programming on television and we got it at a very fair rate.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Anthony DiClemente with Nomura. Please go ahead

Thanks very much.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks Anthony. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Marci Ryvicker with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Marci Ryvicker with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Thanks. I have two questions. The first one is for Neil. We know about the tough comp and equipment charges, as it relates to ARPU for 2016 versus 2015. But can you talk about maybe other rate increases in cable and how it might compare to 2015, in terms of magnitude and timing? And then the second question is for Steve. It was mentioned that scatter remains strong in Q1, and we are starting to read about a slowdown in auto, but it sounds like you're not feeling any of this yet. I guess, is that a correct statement? And is there anything anecdotal about auto specifically that you are hearing? Thanks Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Hi, Marci. Concerning rates and equipment, we'll continue with the accelerated X1 rollout. We're putting out 40,000 boxes a day which, if you do the rough math, it'll get us in the range of 50% of the footprint covered by the end of the year. In terms of capital intensity, we said it would be around 15%, so I think that trend will continue. We are investing behind things we know are good investments, like X1, and I think that's the basic story. We are investing behind business services, behind Wi-Fi, advanced routers, DOCSIS 3.1, and these are all things that I think you can see from the sub numbers and the financial results, we're balancing well the investment as well as the return. Stephen B. Burke - Chief Executive Officer, NBCUniversal & Senior Executive Vice President: So I think the scatter market is the strongest it's been any time in recent memory. And when we went through the upfront, we were wondering, everybody was wondering, is more money going to digital and is that depressing the upfront? Or are advertisers just waiting? And it now appears, given that scatter has been strong now so consistently, that a lot of advertisers were waiting and placing their money later. I don't think there's anything to worry about in terms of the automotive side of the scatter market. I think the whole market is very strong. Automotive should be very strong. And the good news is, we're now in February and we're getting closer and closer to the upfront. So I think there are reasons to be optimistic about the trajectory for the up-front process.

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Marci Ryvicker with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Marci. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Kraft with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Bryan Kraft - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Bryan Kraft with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning. I have a two-part question on dynamic ad insertion. Comcast has been one of the biggest proponents of a targeted dynamic ad insertion model, going back to really before you owned NBCU. Can you talk about NBCUniversal's strategy for reaching households beyond the Canoe partners, beyond those big cable companies? And also secondly, Canoe placed about 11 billion impressions last year. So it was almost double 2014. But still pretty small percentage of TV ad impressions in your footprint. Can you help us understand at this point what the impediments are to really scaling the platform more on the On-Demand side? And also, can you talk about what it would take to extend the dynamic ad insertion platform to linear viewing as well? Thank you. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Steve, why don't I start and then hand it over to you, if you have any additional comments. We believe there's a real opportunity in the linear space to do some of the things that the digital space does so well, such as measurements and targeting. And we've done a few acquisitions, FreeWheel and Visible World, that fit into building that platform, that delivers from targeted advertising, both from the demand side as well as the sales side, making it easier for the customers to deliver their ads. We have the Visible World, which delivers the targeting system. We have set-top box data which can power it. And we think we're still building the platform, but we're delivering value as it is to a number of programmers. I think that, concerning Canoe, it's a integral part of delivering the dynamic ad insertion. And I think we're – one of the other things we're working on is, what's…

Bryan Kraft - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Bryan Kraft with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you.

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thank you, Bryan. Brent, we'll take one last question, please.

Operator

Operator

Final question comes from the line of Mike McCormack with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Mike L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Hey, guys. Thanks. Neil, maybe just a quick comment on very strong broadband adds. What you were seeing out there, was it a reduction in churn, better gross ads, a combination of the two? Any particular markets where you had more success than normal? And then maybe just the follow-up on Wi-Fi hotspots and handoff. Can you just give us an update on what you're seeing from a customer experience standpoint on handoff technology and quality of service? Thanks. Neil Smit - President & Chief Executive Officer, Comcast Cable & Senior Executive Vice President: Concerning the HSD numbers, I think that it was strong delivery across the board. Almost every market had indexed higher on connects. But the biggest driver was disconnects or churn. And that was across the board in the business, not just HSD. So I think there's still room for growth. 70% of America has broadband and there's room for growth within the sector. And we feel we've got the best, fastest Wi-Fi in the household and we can deliver a great experience. We're rolling out DOCSIS 3.1, and I think it's going to be a good business for us going forward. Concerning the Wi-Fi hotspots, people are connecting who use it about five times a day and the average session is over 25 minutes, so we're seeing consistent usage. We've build out the public spots based on the usage trends we see and I think it's – concerning the handoff between Wi-Fi and cellular, there is some technology out there. The question is whether you'd need to do the handoff or not and how seamless it would be. But we are looking at technology in that space as well. Brian L. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, let me just add to that, that…

Jason S. Armstrong - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Operator

Thanks, Brian, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Brent, back to you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. There will be a replay available of today's call starting at 11:30 AM. Eastern time. It will run through Wednesday, February 10, at midnight Eastern time. The dial-in number is 855-859-2056, and the conference ID number is 9896818. A recording of the conference call will also be available on the company's website beginning at 11:30 Am. Eastern time. This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.