Earnings Labs

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Mon, Mar 21, 2022

$22.98

-5.55%

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Transcript

Camilla Horsfall

Management

Right. It’s 3:00 pm UK. So, I think we can go ahead and start. Hello everyone. Welcome to our Q4 Results Call for Shareholders. So, on the call from Caledonia, you have Steve Curtis, our CEO; Mark Learmonth, our CFO; Maurice Mason, our Vice President of Corporate Development, and then myself, Camilla Horsfall, I’m the Vice President of Investor Relations. We’re going to leave some time at the end for questions. So, if you have any, then please just type them in to the Q&A at bottom or raise your hand, and we will unmute you. I’m now just going to share my screen and pass you over to Steve and Mark, who are going to talk through the presentation.

Steve Curtis

Management

Thank you, Mills. While you do that, just say welcome to everybody. Thank you for joining this results presentation, very nice set of results to run through with you. And we’re going to have the usual presentation, which you would be able to find on the website as well. We will run through the presentation quickly between Mark and myself and Maurice. And then, as Camilla said, we will take questions. So, let’s get going. I’ll just do the first few, and then when we get into -- to the numbers, I will hand over to Mark and let him go through those particular slides. So, Mills, if we can have the next one? The disclaimer, everybody knows about, so we’ll flick into the highlights section. A lot of this people are familiar with already. We must acknowledge that our health and safety record was tarnished, by a fatal accident that we had in February this year. So, although we’re talking to the highlights of 2021, we do recognize the severity of that. Prior to that, we’d had a really, really pleasing run of fatality-free shifts. But, this always reminds us that the industry we are in. So, our condolences go to the mine and the family of the deceased. Albeit, very excellent performance in 2021, which you are familiar with, over 67,000 ounces. These have already been announced, costs well contained. Financial performance, very good, 21% increase in turnover. That’s a combination of ounces and good gold price, 11% increase in the adjusted EPS and a 49% increase in the dividend that all of you as shareholders or interested parties would have been familiar with already. And then, we have been speaking about the new opportunities for all for quite some time now, and we have already announced the…

Mark Learmonth

Management

Thanks, Steve. Just to reiterate a point that Camilla made. You can send questions in by typing in the chat box. Revenue, we discussed, it was primarily up because of the higher production. Gold price was virtually unchanged. Royalties still stay at 5%, no change there. I’ve got a little bit more detail on production costs, which increased from 43.7 to 53.1, primarily due to higher labor costs and more electricity costs. Depreciation has more or less doubled, because don’t forget now having brought the Central Shaft into operation, which we now started appreciating it, so that explains that. G&A also up significantly, and that’s again, mainly due to higher wages and salaries. I’ve got more analysis on that in a moment. The foreign exchange gain, the net foreign exchange gain was markedly reduced from $4.3 million to $1.2 million. And that just reflects the slower rate of the devaluation of the local currency. Don’t forget, the exchange rate is a managed exchange rate, managed by the reserve bank. It doesn’t reflect the rate of local inflation. And again, I’ll be referring back to that in a moment. There’s quite a substantial difference. Net other income expense, this year $7 million net expense; last year, it was pretty much flat and $0.6 million. And don’t forget, the 2021 number, $7.1 million includes the $3.8 million impairment on the Glen Hume exploration asset, which we decided not to pursue, whereas in 2020 -- 2020 number included a $4.1 million credit, rising from export incentives that was discontinued. So, those are the two big factors that explain the swing in other income. Tax remains at about 38% on a consolidated basis. And also I’ve got some more information about later, but that does include leakage due to withholding tax as we move…

Steve Curtis

Management

Yes, I’m happy to, and then Maurice can jump in as well. We’ve looked at many properties, and Maurice through his responsibility is business development has built up an enormous knowledge of the potential that Zimbabwe has. In principle, we want to -- we don’t want to buy large producing assets. They come with big problems. So, we feel very much more comfortable and capable of repeating the sort of the process that we embarked on Maligreen, something that has a pedigree in terms of gold and potentially even gold ounces in a resource statement. And then, we build and develop our own operations. We are cognizant of the difficulties of various processes in Zimbabwe, but we’re also confident that if you sequence events that you can build a very, very nice pipeline. We are absolutely committed to moving away from being a single-asset producer. Work is progressing on Maligreen right now to improve the confidence level around the inferred resource that we purchase. And at that point in time, we will then be able to develop a plan for the next stages. Maurice, what else you want to mention in terms of new opportunities?

Maurice Mason

Management

Well, just to give maybe shareholders a sense of scale, Steve, I mean on this slide, you see we toggle a map of Burkina Faso over Zimbabwe. And that just gives you a sense -- this is a big country. It’s half the size of Germany. And that greenstone belt that you see there that runs north down to Southwest. We’re in the bottom tip of like Houndé . But there’s a huge gold-producing or gold belt, which, frankly, has probably spent 50 years of being under explored. So, we feel we’ve got a unique competitive advantage and probably one of the last gold frontiers in Africa.

Steve Curtis

Management

Thank you. Yes. Maligreen, we’ve spoken about, purchased 100% ownership and inferred mineral resource of just below 1 million ounces. And as I’ve said, we’re working to improve the confidence around that resource number so that we can then do the next stage of planning.

Maurice Mason

Management

And we also, Steve, just to add -- for investors who do want to see that technical report -- we’re quite excited about Maligreen. It’s got the technical report been published. Quite nice grade, tonnage curves, we think there’s definitely potential for a mine there, and we’re working hard on that.

Mark Learmonth

Management

Yes. Sorry, just to be clear, we’re focusing on upgrading our -- the confidence level. And then once we’ve done that, we can then move to a feasibility study to support an initial mining operation. We’re still confident that there is further material depth of long strike and then a new mining area. It’s just our approach to these things is very much to try to turn to account and generate cash from what we know we’ve already got rather than then take time and money developing a bigger resource base. The bigger resource base will come hopefully in time. Okay?

Steve Curtis

Management

ESG. I’ll talk a little bit about that. Mills, if you want to put the next slide up? Hopefully, most of you will have seen our inaugural ESG report that was published last year. We are very focused on ESG. And the publication of a report really just formalizes many aspects of what the mine management at Blanket has been doing and what Caledonia has been doing. But it is recognized now internationally that ESG is something that people must talk about, must commit to and must actually put their cards on the table and show their credentials. So, although Zimbabwe is a difficult environment, in a very poor environment, we have got a very robust ESG program. And really, environmental and social really applies to what goes on at the mine level and the business level inside of Zimbabwe. The governance side of that, yes, the principles that are applied at the Caledonia level, we have always been very, very high on our governance performance. Being listed on multiple exchanges, we know what our responsibilities are. And obviously, that discipline just flows into the way we do business in Zimbabwe. So governance is a taken. And then environment and social, as I’ve already said, we’re working towards a solar farm to improve our environmental footprint. We’re very conscious about the water we consume, and we are doing whatever we can do because it’s a very dry area where the Blanket mine is -- and the principles that are outlined here of the areas and the topics that we focus on. These will all be applied 100% at any new operation as well. So, this is not just going to be a one-week wonder. This is the way we do business and we will be very happy, and we’ll talk about ESG on an annual basis in a formally written report. And this is part of our DNA, always has been, but now it’s in black and white. These are just some photographs as showing the sizes of the current tailings dam. Tailings dam is going to be mothballed during the next couple of years, and we will build a new tailings dam to the absolute right standards. But this just shows the sort of the work that the mine management is doing in terms of vegetation on the banks of the walls of the current tailings dam very, very successful. We use some very clever botanists to help us with the right indigenous plants for this dry area. And yes, this shows, it is successful.

Mark Learmonth

Management

Sorry, just to interject. Sorry, Steve, the new tailings dam not because of a problem with the existing tailings dam. We need a new tailings down because the mine is continuing to produce and the old dam has outlived its useful life. So, the new dam, that’s not a reflection of any deficiency with the existing dam.

Steve Curtis

Management

Quite right. Thank you, Mark. Okay. So, I should probably let Mark do the outlook, because as everyone is aware, I am standing down as CEO at the end of June. Mark is taking over as CEO. And as I’ve said to everyone and anybody who’s asked me why, I’ve been doing this job for eight years, I thoroughly enjoyed the period that I’ve spent in management with Caledonia. But, the next phase of development for Caledonia in terms of becoming a multi-asset producer, gold producer in Zimbabwe is going to require absolute focus for the next 5 to 10 years. It’s going to be a very, very interesting and busy period. And it would be wrong if I thought that I could carry on doing this for the next period. So, it’s time for me to stand down and hand over to new management. But I stay on the Board. I’m available to Mark in terms of some of my knowledge and relationships that I’ve built up in Zimbabwe. So I, and remaining as shareholder, really look forward to the future. So Mark, anything else you want to say about the outlook?

Mark Learmonth

Management

No, no. Just to reiterate what you just talked about there on behalf of your management colleagues and the Board, we’d like to thank you for what you’ve achieved over the last sort of eight years or so. And it will be exciting -- the next few years are going to be very exciting, but it will be good to have you still contributing from the Board. Thank you.

Steve Curtis

Management

Thanks.

Mark Learmonth

Management

But, in terms of vision, we’re clearly chasing this target production from Central Shaft of 80,000 ounces a year, and hopefully, we’ll get there this year. We have a commitment to return money to shareholders. And that’s now going to be balance between returning money to shareholders and retaining some cash to contribute to invest in the Company’s growth. And we really are very excited about not just Maligreen, but also some of the other opportunities we’ve been looking at in Zimbabwe. And that as Steve mentioned one of the reasons why we’re stepping down is we see the next sort of 5, 7, 10 years as being quite a high energy period for us as we grow the business from being a single asset operator to becoming a multi-risk, multi-project, derisked business, again, focused on Zimbabwe. So, we think Blanket and having done Central Shaft creates a fantastic platform for us to achieve that growth. Quite a lot of contacts for people in Zimbabwe. I don’t know there are some Zimbabweans on the call. First, it may be difficult sometimes for you to get hold of people outside Zimbabwe. So, I really would encourage you to try and get hold of Debra in Harare. Otherwise, in North America, Patrick and Paul, at 3PPB, they know as well. In Europe, Jochen Staiger, then also we have our PR advisors I imagine in London. So, I think we can go on to questions. Can we, Camilla?

Camilla Horsfall

Management

Yes.

A - Mark Learmonth

Management

I do see some questions already, which I’m happy to deal with. The first relates to power supply. So power supply is the most significant operating difficulty we face. But I don’t want people to get it out of proportion. It’s actually a problem that we believe we’ve got our arms around in terms of, first off, we have a full suite of standby diesel gensets. So, we can and do often run the mine completely using diesel. It has a cost implication and an environmental implication, but we can still make excellent money using diesel gensets. So, don’t think that the mine is going to sit there, not producing if the Zimbabwe grid falls over. Having said that, the solar project does make a contribution, but already, we are focusing -- we’re beginning to look at a second phase project to increase the contribution from solar further. That will include some sort of battery storage. And so, it will be more expensive. So broadly speaking, the 12-megawatt facility is costing about $14 million. The cost per megawatt included batteries will be approximately twice that. So, we’re not going to go completely off-grid, but we will hopefully -- or more hopefully, I do expect that we will reduce our average cost of power by increasing the contribution from solar. So, I’m reasonably comfortable that we’ve actually got a solution to solar. Inflation is another big problem in Zimbabwe. But again, I think we’ve dealt with it. The workers towards the end of the year -- what was happening is because the rate of inflation in Zimbabwe is very, very high, what happens is that the RTGS-denominated component of our labor bill increases by 40%, 50% for a six-month period. But because the exchange rate is only devalued by 10% or 15%, once you translate that higher RTGS salary back into local -- into dollars, it gives rise to a very significant, I think it was about a 25% increase in the U.S. dollar salary bill. And that was only for six months. So, to lance the boil, we took the decision late last year to pay all of our workers 100% in U.S. dollars. And so, the question that someone asked was high local inflation is demotivating employees. Well, they’re no longer demotivated. They currently get paid in U.S. dollars. Now they could do what they will with in U.S. dollars. So, they’re very happy, okay? The workforce has grown more quickly than we expected. And that’s because the grade was lower than we expected, and so we’re having to move more tons to achieve the target of 80,000 ounces, and that’s also flowing through in terms of needing additional milling capacity and additional CIL capacity. It is at the margin, okay? It’s not a significant problem. So, I think that deals with inflation.

Camilla Horsfall

Management

If people want to ask questions, you can just raise your hand and we are able to unmute you.

Mark Learmonth

Management

Yes. I think Howard is trying to raise a question. So, I think, Howard, if you raise your hand, I think then Camilla will unmute you.

Camilla Horsfall

Management

I think he’s saying that his computer doesn’t have a microphone. So, I don’t think he’s able to speak.

Steve Curtis

Management

Howard should be able to talk now. Howard, you’re in.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Can you hear me?

Mark Learmonth

Management

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Good. Yes. I’m joining by both phone and computer. First, a minor question and then a few comments, all positive. Could you save $3 million in electricity once the solar plant -- $3 million a year, once the solar plant...

Mark Learmonth

Management

Yes, we will. Yes. The answer is -- sorry, to be clear. It’s about $3 million a year, which would equate to something between $35 and $40 per ounce, which is about 5% of our online cost per ounce. Yes, Howard, completely right. There’s a little bit of complexity in terms of the accounting, which I won’t bore you with, but on a consolidated level, that benefit will get recognized. Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay. Second, on your comment about the dividend. If you keep some money to grow, people will find an excuse to buy your stock. Just grow the business. They’ll figure it out.

Mark Learmonth

Management

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Somebody figured out Buffett stock and here it is $515,000, with maybe one broker report in 50 or 60 years. Somebody figured it out. Second, Maligreen appears to have the potential to grow your production another 65% or 75% per year once you get it operational. Is that correct?

Mark Learmonth

Management

Well, yes, we can’t indicative -- I don’t know where that -- we think Maligreen could support an asset of 60,000 to 70,000 ounces a year. So, it does…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Yes. That’s about the same number.

Mark Learmonth

Management

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

60,000 over the quarters.

Mark Learmonth

Management

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

It only costs you $4 million.

Mark Learmonth

Management

Well, hold on, hold on. We’ve got to build that damn thing, Howard. The gold won’t jump out the ground.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

No, no, I understand. You have to spend money, but $4 million for almost 1 million ounces is pretty cheap, even in Zimbabwe. And finally, for Steve, people forget that 7 or 8 years ago, when the price of gold was $1,250 and Zimbabwe on inflation was 4 million, zillion percent. You were able to guide Caledonia through production and then plan to expand the business through the best kind of financing, retained earnings. And here we are, on your way out. Nice job.

Steve Curtis

Management

Thank you, Howie. And remember, the team that was with me at that time is pretty much still here. And that’s -- that I think shareholders should really remember. There is no disruption.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Yes, I forgot to mention that that 9/10 of the team is still there. So, it should only be beneficial changes.

Steve Curtis

Management

Correct. Thank you, Howie.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

All right. Thank you, everybody.

Camilla Horsfall

Management

We’ve got one more question here.

Unknown Analyst

Management

Just a quick question on the fit that -- we’ve seen quite a number of international gold players coming into Zimbabwe and acquiring gold assets. What is your view in terms of opportunities going forward? Do you think they will remain as cheap as they are or what do you think will happen?

Mark Learmonth

Management

I think one of the prime difficulties we faced over the course of recent years, there’s been the quite obscenely ridiculous price expectations. The people who hold Zimbabwe business have as to what that’s worth. And it’s been a real struggle to actually get them to understand that they don’t have a producing mine, they often don’t have a resource base. They might think they’ve got gold there, but they don’t know they’ve got gold there. And they expect people like Caledonia to spend the money to prove the resource base. And then -- so we found a big disconnect between realistic price expectations and local price expectations. And hopefully, that’s going to moderate. Zimbabwe is a challenging place to operate. Just the -- I don’t want to overdo it because we’re very successful at it. But if you’re not operating in Zimbabwe, it is quite a -- you’ve got to be quite brave I think to jump into Zimbabwe and start developing new mines. So, we have seen people come into the sector, and they’re very welcome -- very, very welcome. And that’s a great -- it’s great because it means that finally, international investors -- will be professional investors in the gold space and now beginning to recognize the real merits for Zimbabwe and that’s good. We’re in the water and we’d like the people to come into. It’s a nice. But we’re perfectly happy to compete alongside other gold producers for assets in Zimbabwe, perfectly happy.

Maurice Mason

Management

Maybe just a quick comment from me, Mark. We actually think having other internationally reputable organizations in the country would help investors enormously. One of our challenges is that we’re the only one that’s the only internationally listed mining company in Zimbabwe. So, you take a country like Burkina, where there’s a good 10 or 12 internationally recognized reputable operators. I don’t think it’s justifiable with Zimbabwe. I don’t think it’s any less risky than Burkina or other countries, not to knock those countries. But it’s because there’s lots of other people there, there’s other benchmarks, there’s other comparisons. So frankly, we think we have a competitive advantage in the country, and so we’re not scared of any competition. But a few other reputable players, we think that rising tide would lift all the boats and would be helpful.

Mark Learmonth

Management

So, a question about Central Shaft. Yes, the Central Shaft will start hoisting ore towards the end of this year. And then, increasingly, over 2023, we’ll start hoisting more ore. And absent -- in the ordinary course of events, number 4 shaft would stop operating because number 4 shaft doesn’t really have access below 750 meters. But we believe there’s actually a reasonable prospect that we may continue to mine remnants above 750 meters. So it could well be that Central Shaft keeps going for longer than we’d expected because it is mining material that we didn’t expect to be mining when we set about this plan. But Central Shaft will certainly stop hosting ore by the end of the year. And as I understand it, on the solar project, everything is on its way. It’s either in country, on its way, overland or on a boat. I don’t think we are at risk of any further supply constraints. I guess, what’s driving that question is the current news about production difficulties in China as they face another wave of COVID. As I understand it, pretty much everything we need is either on its way or on a ship. Good. We’ve done?

Steve Curtis

Management

I don’t see any new questions. So, let me just on behalf of the team who’ve been here today, so thank you to all of you for joining. I hope you’ve enjoyed the presentation. As I said, the slides that we did flip through quite quickly are available on our website. Our ESG report is on our website and look out for the new one that will be published during this year. So, thank you very much for attending. And we will be in touch with you through our normal communication channels in the near future. Thanks a lot, everyone. Bye now.