Atul Bhatnagar
Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open
Yes, Tim, thank you for the question. An excellent question. Let me give you more insight into this. As I said earlier, I look for million dollar deals. But then I know the technologies are scaling. I think that's happening on 60-gigahertz. And even as we speak, some of the networks we are conceiving, even with 60-gigahertz, the numbers are now beginning to be 5,000 to 10,000 subscribers. So that gives us the confidence that these new platforms are not scaling, customers are deploying, and they're getting the confidence that they can truly provide fiber-like speed wirelessly, that’s 60. 28 is a – 28 is driven by 5G standards. And I mentioned earlier, 2026, the TAM of that market for fixed wireless is about 1.6 billion. And we have just started the 5G route. I think what you will – the contrast you will see between 60 and 28, 28, we are now as I said, we have 20 POCs, 18 production, and customers are beginning to scale. The difference will be the deal size on 28 will be far larger, as I said earlier, over a three, four year period, five to 10 times the revenue total deal size, because this is a license frequency, somebody has paid money, they really want to deploy. But for fixed wireless broadband, lifecycle is about four to five years still from the start to finish. So I think what we are describing is probably the first 20, 25 percentile in 2023, and probably half of 2024. And then we -- and this is what we have experienced the last 10 years. So we are sharing with you based on how we have seen these technologies just state they have a long, really long, long life in that sense. So I think that gives us the confidence that as the gestation happens, or next three years, that 40-40-20 PMP Enterprise and PTP is very, very realistic. Because we know the market sizes. We know where our strengths are. We know where our sales teams and channels are. We are excellent channels, especially for PMP markets. So -- and this is what we did last two years post-COVID, just focused on these next generation platforms. And now we're beginning to get the confidence just scaling that the keywords, the scaling, and they're being deployed. Fiber, while we are excited fiber will go through the same thing. Our enterprise quarters used to be 2 million, 3 million, 4 million for past few years. It took us time to kind of learn, scale, deploy. And now we are cranking north of $25 million quarter. So that's what we do work with customers closely with them learn and scale.