Linda Rendle
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Sure, Dara. I'll get us started. Thanks for the question. Maybe just -- I'll start with a step back. I think, Dara, to your point, we've been around for a long time, 112 years, and we've seen a lot of different economic scenarios. We've seen inflation. We've seen recession, certainly in the recent years with COVID, et cetera. And absolutely the case that our categories are fairly resilient during times like this. We play in household essentials, so we tend to see our categories at the high point in the low single digits positive. And at the lowest points, we see them low-single digits in the decline. And what we saw in this period is, on average, low-single-digit decline, and there is some nuance in that I think would be helpful to break apart. And maybe I'll just start with Q3. I'll talk about what we're beginning to see in Q4 in April, and maybe just how we're thinking about it moving forward. But if you look at Q3 through mid-February, generally in line with what we had expected, and to be clear, for fiscal year ‘25, we expected a more strained consumer. So categories going from about 2%, 2.5%, down to about plus 1%, and that's what we saw through the first half of the year and the first half of the quarter. And then with a lot of the uncertainties coming with different macroeconomic policies, what you were seeing with tariffs, we begin to see that change in mid-February. At the beginning of that change, what we really saw was changing baskets within the retail locations people shop for our brands. So we saw people prioritizing food a bit more. We saw that market basket shifting within the store. Then as tariffs came out, we saw consumers actually changing their wallet much more broadly, well beyond the market basket that includes our goods. So we saw things like people buying more automobiles, people buying iPhones. The wallet was changing pretty dramatically, and what we saw was conserving behavior in many of our categories. That resulted in our categories being down flat to -- I'm going to take a sip of water. Sorry, hold on for a second. All right, that's better. Our categories being flat to again down low and pretty volatile in that period between mid-February and the end of the quarter. And I think what we're seeing is consumers react, the news cycle every other day is changing, and so consumers are thinking about how they meet all of their needs across a broad range of market baskets and ensure that they have their essentials at home. What kind of buoys our confidence is what we're not seeing is consumers change their at-home behavior in our categories. So we're not seeing people, for example, trade down to private label in any meaningful way in our categories. We're not seeing people decide to not participate in our categories. What we're seeing is people buying smaller sizes or larger sizes in our portfolio. We're seeing they're using every last bit of what they have at home, and what they're trying to do is prioritize the purchases they need to prioritize given the environment that's going on externally. So that gives us confidence that our categories will continue to be resilient because we're not seeing that behavior change in any substantial way, and again, we play in those essentials. So what does that mean for what we're seeing maybe in Q4 and just how we think about the timeframe on this? For Q4, April was a very similar look to what we saw in the back half of Q3. We saw a range from category being flat one week to down two and a half and pretty volatile, up and down, but I would say what we expect for the quarter, the categories could be down low-single digits based on what we're seeing and that's what we've contemplated in the outlook. A big question for all of us is how long will this last? And at this point it's very difficult to say because it's difficult to say exactly what will happen as it relates to tariff, the geopolitical environment, which continues to be pretty volatile and uncertain, but the thing we're certain of is our categories generally are pretty resilient. I still think they're pretty resilient given what's going on right now. Consumer behavior in our categories remains largely unchanged. People are pinching pennies right now to try to make it work and what we're just looking at really closely is, does that behavior start to change and do we start to see behaviors? Again, nothing yet, but we're watching closely private label. We're watching trade down really closely. We're watching channel shift, and then at what point do consumers feel more confident in their ability to navigate whatever's coming and we see our category growth return to that low-single-digit that we would expect. That timing is uncertain, but we just feel confident in our ability to navigate it until we get to that point.