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Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 22, 2014

$14.83

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to Clearwater Paper Corporation’s Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder this conference is being recorded today, October 22, 2014. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Robin Yim, Vice President, Investor Relations of Clearwater Paper. Please go ahead, ma’am.

Robin Yim

Management

Thank you, Saeed. Good afternoon and thank you for joining Clearwater Paper’s third quarter 2014 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Linda Massman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Hertz, Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the third quarter were released shortly after today’s market close. Posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at clearwaterpaper.com, you will find both the earnings press release and the presentation of supplemental information including an updated outlook slide providing the company’s current expectations and estimates as to net sales, operating margin, adjusted EBIDTA, certain cost, pricing, shipment, production and other factors for the fourth quarter of 2014. Additionally we will be providing certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon’s discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release or in the supplemental material provided on our website. I would like to remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections that are subject to change and actual results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include those risks and uncertainties described from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013 and Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31 and June 30, 2014. Any forward-looking statements are made only as of this date and the company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. John Hertz will begin today’s call with a review of the financial results for the third quarter and Linda Massman will provide an overview of the business environment and our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 and then we will open up the call for the question-and-answer session. Now I’ll turn the call over to John.

John Hertz

Management

Thank you Robin. Before I get into our third quarter 2014 results I will start with a little housekeeping. We are providing both GAAP results and results that are adjusted to exclude certain charges and benefits that we believe are not indicative of our core operating performance. For the third quarter of 2014, there was a net charge of $30 million which includes a $24 million charge related to the early retirement of the $375 million notes, $5 million of cost associated with the prior closure of our Long Island, New York converting facility, $1 million in severance and other expenses associated with the Specialty Paper optimization within our consumer products division and lastly the mark-to-market impact from directors cash settled stock unit was a $200,000 benefit in the third quarter. Let me start by saying that I’m very pleased to report that Clearwater Paper had a milestone quarter and in the process hit many new record highs which Linda will cover in more detail. We delivered $72 million in adjusted EBITDA, a record quarter for the company and at the midpoint of our outlook of $68 million to $76 million. We estimate that the number would be $80 million if pricing and input costs were similar to those seen in 2011, which was the baseline of our $75 million EBITDA per quarter objective. So with that I’ll turn to the quarterly results. Net sales came in at $511 million, that’s up 2.5% from Q2 and in line with our outlook for the quarter of up 2.4%. On the paperboard side we saw a 3% increase in paperboard shipments, as the paper machine in Arkansas recovered from its Q2 operational issues and resumed normal production levels. On the tissue side we saw a 2% increase in case shipment volumes accompanies…

Linda Massman

Management

Thanks John hi everyone thanks for joining us today. I’m extremely pleased to report on a record quarter for Clearwater paper. I’d like to thank our entire team of employees for their hard work and dedication which helped us reached this milestone in the company’s history. It was a great quarter in which we topped many historical records. In the quarter we’ve reached record revenues on a consolidated basis of $511 million record consolidated adjusted gross operating and EBITDA margin. Record adjusted EBITDA of $72 million which as John mentioned we estimate to be $80 million in 2011 cost structure terms which was the base line on which we initially set the goal for Clearwater paper. While we’ve had a tailwind from a healthy pulp and paperboard market over the period since 2011 we have faced significant headwinds from decreases in conventional tissue pricing and input cost inflation purchased in our [external] pulp, natural gas and chemicals. In light of these challenges, this is an outstanding accomplishment by the team. Record adjusted EBITDA margin of $52 million or 25% in our pulp and paperboard division with record production levels in both Arkansas and Idaho. This was the second highest quarterly shipment level for the division with 202,000 tons shipped. Record net sales in consumer product with a record 14.4 million cases shift in the quarter. Record TAD product shipment which grew another 8.5% in Q3 resulting from growing customer adoption of our private label TAD products despite continued heavy promotions by the brand and we achieved our full TAD expansion EBITDA run-rate of $12 million in the quarter. While we take this time to acknowledge our achievements recognized that we still have significant work ahead of us to achieve to our cost cycle margin model particularly in the consumer products’…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). And our first question comes from James Armstrong from Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open, please go ahead sir. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Good afternoon.

John Hertz

Management

Hi James. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: My first question is going to be the obligatory MLP question. Your pulp and paper side of the business may qualify for MLP status but do you think anything on the tissue side would qualify?

John Hertz

Management

I think it’s still being looked into that but I’d put a potentially on the paper machine assets within tissue. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Okay, it’s so just for paper machine assets, that’s helpful. And then switching gears you saw your average price rise during the quarter as you sold more of your capacities as TAD but at least one of your branded competitors has said that consumer tissues margins are the near-term high watermark could you comment on what you are seeing in terms of the pricing environment and specifically what you are seeing on TAD pricing versus away from home pricing?

Linda Massman

Management

Yes, I would say competitively we have seen trends that would indicate through 2014 we have definitely seen and we’ve talked about this, an increase in promotional activity during the vast majority of 2014 by a few key competitors. I think our expectation is given that commentary from earlier this week that we would expect continued competitive marketplace and that coupled with some of the new capacity coming online would indicate that we need to continue to sharpen our pencils on the efficiency side and the optimizing our profitability side which is what we are focused. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Okay, that helps. And then I will ask one more before I get in queue. During the quarter you attempted a bleached board price increase that at least according to what we see didn’t go through, could you talk about the drivers behind the need to hold pricing steady and do you believe that on the margin there was some switching down from bleached board to like the CNK grades in the U.S.?

Linda Massman

Management

Well I would say our experience was price increase is different than what price watch described. So consistent with, I’d just say our outlook for Q4 we think we are going to have either flat to slightly up pricing in fourth quarter. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Okay. But do you think there is any switching during the quarter between grades in the overall market in your opinion?

Linda Massman

Management

Not that we saw. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Okay, that helps. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Quinn from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open, please go ahead. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Yes, thanks very much and congratulations on the record results. Just couple of questions one on it sounds like you are worried about pulp and fiber what are driving those the expected increase in those areas?

John Hertz

Management

On the fiber side I think it’s – the biggest piece of it is weather down in the south and just being able to get the supply and then that’s exacerbated by strong demand from pulp producers. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. And then in terms of pulp pricing itself I mean we sort of saw it looks like anyways a bottoming in hardwood prices in the summer, do you expect those prices to rise going forward? And if so you expect at some point an increase in tissue price to offset that?

Linda Massman

Management

I would say with regard to pulp at least in the Q4 we say it’s looking fairly stable, probably have seen kind of stabilization in hardwood much further up and I think it’s hard to predict pulp. VC has their prediction out there we’ve looked at it. I think it’s kind of hard to balance what’s going on in the marketplace with all the supply coming online. Clearly demand is keeping up pretty well but I think it’s a fairly stable pulp market for at least a while. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. And in terms of just big goals that you have got it looks like you have reach your $300 million EBITDA goal based on the 2011 pricing what’s next for the company?

Linda Massman

Management

Well our focus is really going to be turning toward ensuring that we optimize our business and generating additional free cash flow as we talked about and our main areas of focus are on how we standardize our business, how we tend to streamline some of our processes and take some cost out and then focusing on selling our product to optimize our mix.

John Hertz

Management

And so I would say as we get through the end of 2015 the real focus is more on that margin model and getting to the 15% and the opportunity we see there is obviously within consumer side of the business. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. So on the consumer side of the business that 3% to 5% cost that you outlined in our model we have about $1 billion in cost in that segment on the year-to-date basis sorry on a LTM basis so is that can we translate that in a $30 million to $50 million cost savings?

John Hertz

Management

No, I think you need to apply that 3% to 5% to as more on call it purchasing supply chain related cost which is kind of more in $125 million area. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Okay, all right that’s all I had, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Steven Chercover from Davidson. Your line is open, please go ahead. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: Thank you, good afternoon everyone.

John Hertz

Management

Hey Steve. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: So I was hoping we can kind of instead of calibrating off of 2011 if we were look at that 15% EBITDA objective off of what the current run rate, would that get towards something in the vicinity of $325 million in EBITDA?

John Hertz

Management

Well, I think if you look at the revenue we did in the third quarter that sounds probably about right. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: Okay, that’s kind of what I thought. And then maybe I am way too far out of business school but I was looking at slide 13 where you show your weighted average cost of capital at 4.9% I mean you just issued debt at five and three-eighths which is terrific but I going to read about what is your cost of equity then?

John Hertz

Management

I mean inherent in that cost of equity is around I think about 5.5%, memory there is a tax shield on the debt, so that might be where you are. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: Yes, that seems like an extremely low weighted average cost of capital but clearly your earning’s well in excess so that’s terrific.

John Hertz

Management

You can look that up on Bloomberg too. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: So okay and I guess just one other question can you give us a sense of how you are outperforming the market in private label, I mean obviously you are just better but are there any big wins that you could point to? Are you growing with bigger customers than your competitors?

Linda Massman

Management

Steve, I would say our sales team on the CPD side has been working extremely hard to take care of our current customers and then it put a lot of effort into expanding our customer base within grocery retailing but also in additional channels and they have done a nice job of ensuring we understand the needs of the customer and delivering the right product to those customers and we’re focused now on making sure our service levels are where they need to be to satisfy our customer demand. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: Okay and I don’t want to take this down the wrong direction but are you sold out in through air dried product and if so I mean I hope you are not contemplating new capacity?

Linda Massman

Management

Sold out I think we have reached our targeted financial metrics as it related to TAD but we continually work on how to get more capacity out of all of our equipment we – with our TAD capacity as well. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: All right sounds like there is a fire somewhere out.

Linda Massman

Management

Yes, not here. Steven Chercover – D. A. Davidson & Co.: Go back in the queue, thank you.

John Hertz

Management

Thanks Steve.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We do have a follow up from James Armstrong from Vertical Research. Your line is open, please go ahead. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Thanks for taking my follow up. The first one I have is on capital allocation. With the expansion projects pretty much done and running on track could you rank your priority between acquisitions, share repurchases, and dividends as we go forward? And on acquisitions if you do acquire would you prefer to acquire in the paper or tissue space?

John Hertz

Management

I think we have been consistent with our messages over the last couple of years that through 2015 our first priority is returning the 50% free cash flow to shareholders that has been by share buyback as we look forward into 2015 we have got our board meeting in December with our Board of Directors where we have those discussions and everything is on the table. I think through 2015 as well we are more focused on capital expenditures that can really drive margin expansion and free cash flow. And so I guess number three down that list then is acquisition. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Okay, that’s really helpful. And then just real quick could you update us on your maintenance schedule at the paper mills should we still expect most of the maintenance to come in the first half of 2015?

John Hertz

Management

Yes, we have got our Idaho mill in the first quarter and we’ve got our Arkansas mill in the second quarter. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Perfect, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen this concludes our question-and-answer session. At this time I will turn the call over to Ms. Massman for any closing or additional remarks.

Linda Massman

Management

Great, thank you everybody for joining us I appreciate everybody’s attention and look forward to the continued progress of optimizing our businesses. Thank you.